Planning for transit system reliability using productive performance and risk assessment

Urban transit system performance may be quantified and assessed using transit capacity and productive capacity for planning, design and operational management. Bunker (4) defines important productive performance measures of an individual transit service and transit line. Transit work (p-km) captures transit task performed over distance. Transit productiveness (p-km/h) captures transit work performed over time. This paper applies productive performance with risk assessment to quantify transit system reliability. Theory is developed to monetize transit segment reliability risk on the basis of demonstration Annual Reliability Event rates by transit facility type, segment productiveness, and unit-event severity. A comparative example of peak hour performance of a transit sub-system containing bus-on-street, busway, and rail components in Brisbane, Australia demonstrates through practical application the importance of valuing reliability. Comparison reveals the highest risk segments to be long, highly productive on street bus segments followed by busway (BRT) segments and then rail segments. A transit reliability risk reduction treatment example demonstrates that benefits can be significant and should be incorporated into project evaluation in addition to those of regular travel time savings, reduced emissions and safety improvements. Reliability can be used to identify high risk components of the transit system and draw comparisons between modes both in planning and operations settings, and value improvement scenarios in a project evaluation setting. The methodology can also be applied to inform daily transit system operational management.

Use of condition-specific patient-reported outcome measures in clinical trials among patients with wrist osteoarthritis : a systematic review

Background. This paper aimed to identify condition-specific patient-reported outcome measures used in clinical trials among people with wrist osteoarthritis and summarise empirical peer-reviewed evidence supporting their reliability, validity, and responsiveness to change. Methods. A systematic review of randomised controlled trials among people with wrist osteoarthritis was undertaken. Studies reporting reliability, validity, or responsiveness were identified using a systematic reverse citation trail audit procedure. Psychometric properties of the instruments were examined against predefined criteria and summarised. Results. Thirteen clinical trials met inclusion criteria. The most common patient-reported outcome was the disabilities of the arm, shoulder, and hand questionnaire (DASH). The DASH, the Michigan Hand Outcomes Questionnaire (MHQ), the Patient Evaluation Measure (PEM), and the Patient-Reported Wrist Evaluation (PRWE) had evidence supporting their reliability, validity, and responsiveness. A post-hoc review of excluded studies revealed the AUSCAN Osteoarthritis Hand Index as another suitable instrument that had favourable reliability, validity, and responsiveness. Conclusions. The DASH, MHQ, and AUSCAN Osteoarthritis Hand Index instruments were supported by the most favourable empirical evidence for validity, reliability, and responsiveness. The PEM and PRWE also had favourable empirical evidence reported for these elements. Further psychometric testing of these instruments among people with wrist osteoarthritis is warranted.

A critical evaluation and comparison of two formative measures of system quality using criterion variables

Evaluating the validity of formative variables has presented ongoing challenges for researchers. In this paper we use global criterion measures to compare and critically evaluate two alternative formative measures of System Quality. One model is based on the ISO-9126 software quality standard, and the other is based on a leading information systems research model. We find that despite both models having a strong provenance, many of the items appear to be non-significant in our study. We examine the implications of this by evaluating the quality of the criterion variables we used, and the performance of PLS when evaluating formative models with a large number of items. We find that our respondents had difficulty distinguishing between global criterion variables measuring different aspects of overall System Quality. Also, because formative indicators “compete with one another” in PLS, it may be difficult to develop a set of measures which are all significant for a complex formative construct with a broad scope and a large number of items. Overall, we suggest that there is cautious evidence that both sets of measures are valid and largely equivalent, although questions still remain about the measures, the use of criterion variables, and the use of PLS for this type of model evaluation.

Organisational culture in airworthiness management programs : developing a measurement model

All civil and private aircraft are required to comply with the airworthiness standards set by their national airworthiness authority and throughout their operational life must be in a condition of safe operation. Aviation accident data shows that over twenty percent of all fatal accidents in aviation are due to airworthiness issues, specifically aircraft mechanical failures. Ultimately it is the responsibility of each registered operator to ensure that their aircraft remain in a condition of safe operation, and this is done through both effective management of airworthiness activities and the effective program governance of safety outcomes. Typically, the projects within these airworthiness management programs are focused on acquiring, modifying and maintaining the aircraft as a capability supporting the business. Program governance provides the structure through which the goals and objectives of airworthiness programs are set along with the means of attaining them. Whilst the principal causes of failures in many programs can be traced to inadequate program governance, many of the failures in large scale projects can have their root causes in the organisational culture and more specifically in the organisational processes related to decision-making. This paper examines the primary theme of project and program based enterprises, and introduces a model for measuring organisational culture in airworthiness management programs using measures drawn from 211 respondents in Australian airline programs. The paper describes the theoretical perspectives applied to modifying an original model to specifically focus it on measuring the organisational culture of programs for managing airworthiness; identifying the most important factors needed to explain the relationship between the measures collected, and providing a description of the nature of these factors. The paper concludes by identifying a model that best describes the organisational culture data collected from seven airworthiness management programs.

Natural convection flow in a strong cross magnetic field with radiation

The problem of MHD natural convection boundary layer flow of an electrically conducting and optically dense gray viscous fluid along a heated vertical plate is analyzed in the presence of strong cross magnetic field with radiative heat transfer. In the analysis radiative heat flux is considered by adopting optically thick radiation limit. Attempt is made to obtain the solutions valid for liquid metals by taking Pr≪1. Boundary layer equations are transformed in to a convenient dimensionless form by using stream function formulation (SFF) and primitive variable formulation (PVF). Non-similar equations obtained from SFF are then simulated by implicit finite difference (Keller-box) method whereas parabolic partial differential equations obtained from PVF are integrated numerically by hiring direct finite difference method over the entire range of local Hartmann parameter, $xi$ . Further, asymptotic solutions are also obtained for large and small values of local Hartmann parameter $xi$ . A favorable agreement is found between the results for small, large and all values of $xi$ . Numerical results are also demonstrated graphically by showing the effect of various physical parameters on shear stress, rate of heat transfer, velocity and temperature.

Policy measures for creating an integrated and brand-focused innovation system for film industries in shadow nations : an application to Australia's national film industry

Shadow nations face particular problems in constructing competitive film industries. Shadow nations refer to nations whose relative competitiveness suffers from easy product substitutability by products initiated, produced and distributed by powerful actors, such as media conglomerates located in Hollywood. The dominant literature has so far neglected the developing policy recommendations for dealing explicitly with the challenges of shadow nations. This paper aims to develop and apply a normative model for the development of film industries in shadow nations. The model integrates insights from innovation system studies and place branding. The developed model is applied to the Australian film industry as Australia represents a typical shadow nation within the film industry.

Natural convection flow with surface radiation along a vertical wavy surface

In this study, natural convection boundary layer flow of thermally radiating fluid along a heated vertical wavy surface is analyzed. Here, the radiative component of heat flux emulates the surface temperature. Governing equations are reduced to dimensionless form, subject to the appropriate transformation. Resulting dimensionless equations are transformed to a set of parabolic partial differential equations by using primitive variable formulation, which are then integrated numerically via iterative finite difference scheme. Emphasis has been given to low Prandtl number fluid. The numerical results obtained for the physical parameters, such as, surface radiation parameter, R, and radiative length parameter, ξ, are discussed in terms of local skin friction and Nusselt number coefficients. Comprehensive interpretation of velocity distribution is also given in the form of streamlines.

Conduction-radiation effect on natural convection flow in a fluid-saturated non-Darcy porous medium enclosed by non-isothermal walls

The effect of conduction-convection-radiation on natural convection flow of Newtonian optically thick gray fluid, confined in a non-Darcian porous media square cavity is numerically studied. For the gray fluid consideration is given to Rosseland diffusion approximation. Further assuming that (i) the temperature of the left vertical wall is varying linearly with height, (ii) cooled right vertical and top walls and (iii) the bottom wall is uniformly-heated. The governing equations are solved using the Alternate Direct Implicit method together with the Successive Over Relaxation technique. The investigation of the effect of governing parameters namely the Forschheimer resistance (Γ), the Planck constant (Rd), and the temperature difference (Δ), on flow pattern and heat transfer characteristics has been carried out. It was seen that the reduction of flow and heat transfer occurs as the Forschheimer resistance is increased. On the other hand both the strength of flow and heat transfer increases as the temperature ratio, Δ, is increased.

Characterisation of micrinite in the late triassic Callide Coal Measures

Samples from the Callide Coal Measures, Queensland, Australia, containing the minor maceral, micrinite, have been studied using optical and electron-optical techniques to determine the precise compositional and structural nature of micrinite when in association with vitrinite macerals. Emphasis has been placed on direct spatial correlation of optical and electron-optical data due to the fine grain size (<1μm) of micrinite and its relatively low abundance compared with other macerals in the Callide Basin coals. Precise elemental, morphological and structural data, including electron diffraction, provides unambiguous evidence for the presence of kaolinite in the component known as micrinite. Indeed, micrinite consists predominantly of fine-grained kaolinite (>90 per cent of the component) and, as such, should not be considered a maceral.

Towards a structured understanding of caregivers’ safety behaviour in the domestic and driveway setting

Slow speed run-overs represent a major cause of injury and death among Australian children, with higher rates of incidents being reported in Queensland than in the remaining Australian states. Yet, little attention has been given to how caregivers develop their safety behaviour in and around the driveway setting. To address this gap, the current study aimed to develop a conceptual model of driveway child safety behaviours among caregivers of children aged five years or younger. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 26 caregivers (25 females/1 male, mean age, 33.24 year) from rural and metropolitan Queensland. To enable a comparison and validation of findings from the driveway, the study analysed both driveway and domestic safety behaviours. Domestic safety behaviours were categorised and validated against driveway safety behaviours, uncovering a process of risk appraisal and safety behaviour that was applicable in both settings (the Safety System Model). However, noteworthy differences between the domestic and driveway setting were uncovered. Unlike in the domestic setting, driveway risks were perceived as shifting according the presence of moving vehicles, which resulted in inconsistent safety behaviours. While the findings require further validation, they have implications for the design and implementation of driveway run-over interventions.

A safe system-based approach to selection of clear zones, safety barriers and other roadside treatments

On average, 560 fatal run-off-road crashes occur annually in Australia and 135 in New Zealand. In addition, there are more than 14,000 run-off-road crashes causing injuries each year across both countries. In rural areas, run-off-road casualty crashes constitute 50-60% of all casualty crashes. Their severity is particularly high with more than half of those involved sustaining fatal or serious injuries. This paper reviews the existing approach to roadside hazard risk assessment, selection of clear zones and hazard treatments. It proposes a modified approach to roadside safety evaluation and management. It is a methodology based on statistical modelling of run-off-road casualty crashes, and application of locally developed crash modification factors and severity indices. Clear zones, safety barriers and other roadside design/treatment options are evaluated with a view to minimise fatal and serious injuries – the key Safe System objective. The paper concludes with a practical demonstration of the proposed approach. The paper is based on findings from a four-year Austroads research project into improving roadside safety in the Safe System context.

Diurnal temperature range and childhood asthma : a time-series study

BACKGROUND: Hot and cold temperatures have been associated with childhood asthma. However, the relationship between daily temperature variation and childhood asthma is not well understood. This study aimed to examine the relationship between diurnal temperature range (DTR) and childhood asthma. METHODS: A Poisson generalized linear model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to examine the relationship between DTR and emergency department admissions for childhood asthma in Brisbane, from January 1st 2003 to December 31st 2009. RESULTS: There was a statistically significant relationship between DTR and childhood asthma. The DTR effect on childhood asthma increased above a DTR of 10[degree sign]C. The effect of DTR on childhood asthma was the greatest for lag 0--9 days, with a 31% (95% confidence interval: 11% -- 58%) increase of emergency department admissions per 5[degree sign]C increment of DTR. Male children and children aged 5--9 years appeared to be more vulnerable to the DTR effect than others. CONCLUSIONS: Large DTR may trigger childhood asthma. Future measures to control and prevent childhood asthma should include taking temperature variability into account. More protective measures should be taken after a day of DTR above10[degree sign]C.

Effect of depithing on the safety and environmental aspects of bagasse stockpiling

Large scale sugarcane bagasse storage in uncovered stockpiles has the potential to result in adverse impacts on the environment and surrounding communities through hazards associated with nuisance dust, groundwater seepage, spontaneous combustion and generation of contaminated leachates. Managing these hazards will assist in improved health and safety outcomes for factory staff and reduced potential environmental impacts on surrounding communities. Removal of the smaller fibres (pith) from bagasse prior to stockpiling reduced the dust number of bagasse by 50% and modelling suggests peak ground level PM10 dust emissions would reduce by 70%. Depithed bagasse has much lower water holding capacity (~43%) than whole bagasse. This experimental and modelling study investigated the physical properties of depithed and whole bagasse. Dust dispersion modelling was undertaken to determine the likely effects associated with storage of whole and depithed sugarcane bagasse.

Sustainable, safe, smart—three key elements of Singapore’s evolving transport policies

Sustainability, safety and smartness are three key elements of a modern transportation system. This study illustrates various policy directions and initiatives of Singapore to address how its transportation system is progressing in light of these three components. Sustainability targets economical efficiency, environmental justice and social equity by including policies for integrating land use and transport planning, ensuring adequate transport supply measures, managing travel demand efficiently, and incorporating environment-friendly strategies. Safety initiatives of its transportation system aim to minimize injuries and incidents of all users including motorists, public transport commuters, pedestrians, and bicyclists. Smartness incorporates qualities like real time sensing, fast processing and decision making, and automated action-taking into its control, monitoring, information management and revenue collection systems. Various policy implications and technology applications along these three directions reveal that smart technologies facilitate implementation of policies promoting sustainability and safety. The Singapore experience could serve as a good reference for other cities in promoting a transportation system that is sustainable, safe and smart.

Team communications in surgery - creating a culture of safety

As a key department within a healthcare organisation, the operating room is a hazardous environment, where the consequences of errors are high, despite the relatively low rates of occurrence. Team performance in surgery is increasingly being considered crucial for a culture of safety. The aim of this study was to describe team communication and the ways it fostered or threatened safety culture in surgery. Ethnography was used, and involved a 6-month fieldwork period of observation and 19 interviews with 24 informants from nursing, anaesthesia and surgery. Data were collected during 2009 in the operating rooms of a tertiary care facility in Queensland, Australia. Through analysis of the textual data, three themes that exemplified teamwork culture in surgery were generated: ‘‘building shared understandings through open communication’’; ‘‘managing contextual stressors in a hierarchical environment’’ and ‘‘intermittent membership influences team performance’’. In creating a safety culture in a healthcare organisation, a team’s optimal performance relies on the open discussion of teamwork and team expectation, and significantly depends on how the organisational culture promotes such discussions.