862 resultados para Prediction of Heterogeneous Variables System
Resumo:
Pasture-based ruminant production systems are common in certain areas of the world, but energy evaluation in grazing cattle is performed with equations developed, in their majority, with sheep or cattle fed total mixed rations. The aim of the current study was to develop predictions of metabolisable energy (ME) concentrations in fresh-cut grass offered to non-pregnant non-lactating cows at maintenance energy level, which may be more suitable for grazing cattle. Data were collected from three digestibility trials performed over consecutive grazing seasons. In order to cover a range of commercial conditions and data availability in pasture-based systems, thirty-eight equations for the prediction of energy concentrations and ratios were developed. An internal validation was performed for all equations and also for existing predictions of grass ME. Prediction error for ME using nutrient digestibility was lowest when gross energy (GE) or organic matter digestibilities were used as sole predictors, while the addition of grass nutrient contents reduced the difference between predicted and actual values, and explained more variation. Addition of N, GE and diethyl ether extract (EE) contents improved accuracy when digestible organic matter in DM was the primary predictor. When digestible energy was the primary explanatory variable, prediction error was relatively low, but addition of water-soluble carbohydrates, EE and acid-detergent fibre contents of grass decreased prediction error. Equations developed in the current study showed lower prediction errors when compared with those of existing equations, and may thus allow for an improved prediction of ME in practice, which is critical for the sustainability of pasture-based systems.
Resumo:
Improved nutrient utilization efficiency is strongly related to enhanced economic performance and reduced environmental footprint of dairy farms. Pasture-based systems are widely used for dairy production in certain areas of the world, but prediction equations of fresh grass nutritive value (nutrient digestibility and energy concentrations) are limited. Equations to predict digestible energy (DE) and metabolizable energy (ME) used for grazing cattle have been either developed with cattle fed conserved forage and concentrate diets or sheep fed previously frozen grass, and the majority of them require measurements less commonly available to producers, such as nutrient digestibility. The aim of the present study was therefore to develop prediction equations more suitable to grazing cattle for nutrient digestibility and energy concentrations, which are routinely available at farm level by using grass nutrient contents as predictors. A study with 33 nonpregnant, nonlactating cows fed solely fresh-cut grass at maintenance energy level for 50 wk was carried out over 3 consecutive grazing seasons. Freshly harvested grass of 3 cuts (primary growth and first and second regrowth), 9 fertilizer input levels, and contrasting stage of maturity (3 to 9 wk after harvest) was used, thus ensuring a wide representation of nutritional quality. As a result, a large variation existed in digestibility of dry matter (0.642-0.900) and digestible organic matter in dry matter (0.636-0.851) and in concentrations of DE (11.8-16.7 MJ/kg of dry matter) and ME (9.0-14.1 MJ/kg of dry matter). Nutrient digestibilities and DE and ME concentrations were negatively related to grass neutral detergent fiber (NDF) and acid detergent fiber (ADF) contents but positively related to nitrogen (N), gross energy, and ether extract (EE) contents. For each predicted variable (nutrient digestibilities or energy concentrations), different combinations of predictors (grass chemical composition) were found to be significant and increase the explained variation. For example, relatively higher R(2) values were found for prediction of N digestibility using N and EE as predictors; gross-energy digestibility using EE, NDF, ADF, and ash; NDF, ADF, and organic matter digestibilities using N, water-soluble carbohydrates, EE, and NDF; digestible organic matter in dry matter using water-soluble carbohydrates, EE, NDF, and ADF; DE concentration using gross energy, EE, NDF, ADF, and ash; and ME concentration using N, EE, ADF, and ash. Equations presented may allow a relatively quick and easy prediction of grass quality and, hence, better grazing utilization on commercial and research farms, where nutrient composition falls within the range assessed in the current study.
Resumo:
This study examines convection-permitting numerical simulations of four cases of terrain-locked quasi-stationary convective bands over the UK. For each case, a 2.2-km grid-length 12-member ensemble and 1.5-km grid-length deterministic forecast are analyzed, each with two different initialization times. Object-based verification is applied to determine whether the simulations capture the structure, location, timing, intensity and duration of the observed precipitation. These verification diagnostics reveal that the forecast skill varies greatly between the four cases. Although the deterministic and ensemble simulations captured some aspects of the precipitation correctly in each case, they never simultaneously captured all of them satisfactorily. In general, the models predicted banded precipitation accumulations at approximately the correct time and location, but the precipitating structures were more cellular and less persistent than the coherent quasi-stationary bands that were observed. Ensemble simulations from the two different initialization times were not significantly different, which suggests a potential benefit of time-lagging subsequent ensembles to increase ensemble size. The predictive skill of the upstream larger-scale flow conditions and the simulated precipitation on the convection-permitting grids were strongly correlated, which suggests that more accurate forecasts from the parent ensemble should improve the performance of the convection-permitting ensemble nested within it.
Resumo:
Identifying predictability and the corresponding sources for the western North Pacific (WNP) summer climate in the case of non-stationary teleconnections during recent decades benefits for further improvements of long-range prediction on the WNP and East Asian summers. In the past few decades, pronounced increases on the summer sea surface temperature (SST) and associated interannual variability are observed over the tropical Indian Ocean and eastern Pacific around the late 1970s and over the Maritime Continent and western–central Pacific around the early 1990s. These increases are associated with significant enhancements of the interannual variability for the lower-tropospheric wind over the WNP. In this study, we further assess interdecadal changes on the seasonal prediction of the WNP summer anomalies, using May-start retrospective forecasts from the ENSEMBLES multi-model project in the period 1960–2005. It is found that prediction of the WNP summer anomalies exhibits an interdecadal shift with higher prediction skills since the late 1970s, particularly after the early 1990s. Improvements of the prediction skills for SSTs after the late 1970s are mainly found around tropical Indian Ocean and the WNP. The better prediction of the WNP after the late 1970s may arise mainly from the improvement of the SST prediction around the tropical eastern Indian Ocean. The close teleconnections between the tropical eastern Indian Ocean and WNP summer variability work both in the model predictions and observations. After the early 1990s, on the other hand, the improvements are detected mainly around the South China Sea and Philippines for the lower-tropospheric zonal wind and precipitation anomalies, associating with a better description of the SST anomalies around the Maritime Continent. A dipole SST pattern over the Maritime Continent and the central equatorial Pacific Ocean is closely related to the WNP summer anomalies after the early 1990s. This teleconnection mode is quite predictable, which is realistically reproduced by the models, presenting more predictable signals to the WNP summer climate after the early 1990s.
Resumo:
Cerebellar ataxias represent a spectrum of disorders which are, however, linked by common symptoms of motor incoordination and are typically associated with deficient in Purkinje cell firing activity and, often, degeneration. Cerebellar ataxias currently lack a curative agent. The endocannabinoid (eCB) system includes eCB compounds and their associated metabolic enzymes, together with cannabinoid receptors, predominantly the cannabinoid CB1 receptor (CB1R) in the cerebellum; activation of this system in the cerebellar cortex is associated with deficits in motor coordination characteristic of ataxia, effects which can be prevented by CB1R antagonists. Of further interest are various findings that CB1R deficits may also induce a progressive ataxic phenotype. Together these studies suggest that motor coordination is reliant on maintaining the correct balance in eCB system signalling. Recent work also demonstrates deficient cannabinoid signalling in the mouse ‘ducky2J’ model of ataxia. In light of these points, the potential mechanisms whereby cannabinoids may modulate the eCB system to ameliorate dysfunction associated with cerebellar ataxias are considered.
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In the present work, a group contribution method is proposed for the estimation of viscosity of fatty compounds and biodiesel esters as a function of the temperature. The databank used for regression of the group contribution parameters (1070 values for 65 types of substances) included fatty compounds, such as fatty acids, methyl and ethyl esters and alcohols, tri- and diacylglycerols, and glycerol. The inclusion of new experimental data for fatty esters, a partial acylglycerol, and glycerol allowed for a further refinement in the performance of this methodology in comparison to a prior group contribution equation (Ceriani, R.; Goncalves, C. B.; Rabelo, J.; Caruso, M.; Cunha, A. C. C.; Cavaleri, F. W.; Batista, E. A. C.; Meirelles, A. J. A. Group contribution model for predicting viscosity of fatty compounds. J. Chem. Eng. Data 2007, 52, 965-972) for all classes of fatty compounds. Besides, the influence of small concentrations of partial acylglycerols, intermediate compounds in the transesterification reaction, in the viscosity of biodiesels was also investigated.
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A new method is presented to prepare anatomical slides of plant materials including a combination of soft and hard tissues, such as stems with cambial variants, arboreal monocotyledons, and tree bark The method integrates previous techniques aimed at softening the samples and making them thereby more homogeneous, with the use of anti-tearing polystyrene foam solution In addition, we suggest two other alternatives to protect the sections from tearing adhesive tape and/or Mayer`s albumin adhesive, both combined with the polystyrene foam solution This solution is cheap and easy to make by dissolving any packaging polystyrene m butyl acetate It is applied before each section is cut on a sliding microtome and ensures that all the tissues in the section will hold together This novel microtechnical procedure will facilitate the study of heterogeneous plant portions, as shown in some illustrated examples
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Redox processes associated with controlled generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) by NADPH oxidase (Nox) add an essential level of regulation to signaling pathways underlying physiological processes. We evaluated the ROS generation in the main visual relays of the mammalian brain, namely the superior colliculus (SC) and the dorsal lateral geniculate nucleus (DLG), after ocular enucleation in adult rats. Dihydroethidium (DHE) oxidation revealed increased ROS generation in SC and DLG between 1 and 30 days postlesion. ROS generation was decreased by the Nox inhibitors diphenyleneiodonium chloride (DPI) and apocynin. Real-time PCR results revealed that Nox 2 was upregulated in both retinorecipient structures after deafferentation, whereas Nox 1 and Nox 4 were upregulated only in the SC. To evaluate the role of ROS in structural remodeling after the lesions, apocynin was given to enucleated rats and immunohistochemistry was conducted for markers of neuronal remodeling into SC and DLG. Immunohistochemical data showed that ocular enucleation produces an increase of neurofilament and microtubule-associated protein-2 immunostaining in both SC and DLG, which was markedly attenuated by apocynin treatment. Taken together, the findings of the present study suggest a novel role for Nox-induced ROS signaling in mediating neuronal remodeling in visual areas after ocular enucleation. (C) 2010 IBRO. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Process scheduling techniques consider the current load situation to allocate computing resources. Those techniques make approximations such as the average of communication, processing, and memory access to improve the process scheduling, although processes may present different behaviors during their whole execution. They may start with high communication requirements and later just processing. By discovering how processes behave over time, we believe it is possible to improve the resource allocation. This has motivated this paper which adopts chaos theory concepts and nonlinear prediction techniques in order to model and predict process behavior. Results confirm the radial basis function technique which presents good predictions and also low processing demands show what is essential in a real distributed environment.
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This study investigates the numerical simulation of three-dimensional time-dependent viscoelastic free surface flows using the Upper-Convected Maxwell (UCM) constitutive equation and an algebraic explicit model. This investigation was carried out to develop a simplified approach that can be applied to the extrudate swell problem. The relevant physics of this flow phenomenon is discussed in the paper and an algebraic model to predict the extrudate swell problem is presented. It is based on an explicit algebraic representation of the non-Newtonian extra-stress through a kinematic tensor formed with the scaled dyadic product of the velocity field. The elasticity of the fluid is governed by a single transport equation for a scalar quantity which has dimension of strain rate. Mass and momentum conservations, and the constitutive equation (UCM and algebraic model) were solved by a three-dimensional time-dependent finite difference method. The free surface of the fluid was modeled using a marker-and-cell approach. The algebraic model was validated by comparing the numerical predictions with analytic solutions for pipe flow. In comparison with the classical UCM model, one advantage of this approach is that computational workload is substantially reduced: the UCM model employs six differential equations while the algebraic model uses only one. The results showed stable flows with very large extrudate growths beyond those usually obtained with standard differential viscoelastic models. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Five zones along a transect of 180 m were selected for study on the Island of Pai Matos (Sao Paulo, Brazil). Four of the zones are colonised by vascular plants (Spartina SP, Laguncularia LG, Avicennia AV and Rhizophora RH) and were denominated soils, and the other zone, which lacks vegetation, was denominated sediment (SD). The geochemical conditions differed significantly in soils and sediment and also at different depths. The soils were oxic (Eh > 350 mV) or suboxic (Eh: 350-100 mV) at the surface and anoxic (Eh < 100 mV) at depth, whereas in the sediment anoxic conditions prevailed at all depths, but with a lower concentration of sulphides in the pore water and pyrite in the solid fraction. Under these geochemical conditions Fe is retained in the soils, while the Mn tends to be mobilized and lost. The most abundant form of iron oxyhydroxide was lepidocrocite (mean concentration for all sites and depths, 45 +/- 19 mu mol g(-1)), followed by goethite (30 19 mu mol g(-1))and ferrihydrite (19 +/- 11 mu mol g(-1)),with significant differences among the mean concentrations. There was a significant decrease with depth in all the types of Fe oxyhydroxides measured, particularly the poorly crystalline forms. The pyrite fraction was an important component of the free Fe pool (non-silicate Fe) in all soils as well as in the sediment, especially below 20 cm depth (mean concentration for all sites and depths, 60 +/- 54 mu mol CI). Furthermore, the mean concentration of Fe-pyrite for all sites and depths was higher than that obtained for any of the three Fe oxyhydroxides measured. The Fe-AVS was a minor fraction, indicating that the high concentrations of dissolved Fe in the soils in the upper area of the transect result from the oxidation of Fe sulphides during low tide. Mossbauer spectroscopy also revealed that most of the Fe (III) was associated with silicates, in this case nontronite. The presence of crystals of pyrite associated with phyllosilicates in samples from the upper layer of the soils may indicate that pyritization of this form of Fe(III) is more rapid than usually reported for ocean bed sediments. The sequential extraction of Mn did not reveal any clearly dominant fraction, with the Mn-carbonate fraction being the most prevalent, followed by exchangeable Mn and oxides of Mn, whereas pyrite-Mn and Mn associated with crystalline Fe-oxides were present at significantly lower concentrations. The high concentration of dissolved Mn found in the soils in the lower part of the transect is consistent with the fact that the solubility is determined by the carbonate fraction. Unlike for Fe, in the soils in the higher zone, which are subject to intense drainage during low tide, there was loss of Mn, as reflected by the concentration of total Mn. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.