944 resultados para Model-based bootstrap


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Residual amplitude modulation (RAM) is an unwanted noise source in electro-optic phase modulators. The analysis presented shows that while the magnitude of the RAM produced by a MgO:LiNbO3 modulator increases with intensity, its associated phase becomes less well defined. This combination results in temporal fluctuations in RAM that increase with intensity. This behaviour is explained by the presented phenomenological model based on gradually evolving photorefractive scattering centres randomly distributed throughout the optically thick medium. This understanding is exploited to show that RAM can be reduced to below the 10-5 level by introducing an intense optical beam to erase the photorefractive scatter.

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Reliability of the performance of biometric identity verification systems remains a significant challenge. Individual biometric samples of the same person (identity class) are not identical at each presentation and performance degradation arises from intra-class variability and inter-class similarity. These limitations lead to false accepts and false rejects that are dependent. It is therefore difficult to reduce the rate of one type of error without increasing the other. The focus of this dissertation is to investigate a method based on classifier fusion techniques to better control the trade-off between the verification errors using text-dependent speaker verification as the test platform. A sequential classifier fusion architecture that integrates multi-instance and multisample fusion schemes is proposed. This fusion method enables a controlled trade-off between false alarms and false rejects. For statistically independent classifier decisions, analytical expressions for each type of verification error are derived using base classifier performances. As this assumption may not be always valid, these expressions are modified to incorporate the correlation between statistically dependent decisions from clients and impostors. The architecture is empirically evaluated by applying the proposed architecture for text dependent speaker verification using the Hidden Markov Model based digit dependent speaker models in each stage with multiple attempts for each digit utterance. The trade-off between the verification errors is controlled using the parameters, number of decision stages (instances) and the number of attempts at each decision stage (samples), fine-tuned on evaluation/tune set. The statistical validation of the derived expressions for error estimates is evaluated on test data. The performance of the sequential method is further demonstrated to depend on the order of the combination of digits (instances) and the nature of repetitive attempts (samples). The false rejection and false acceptance rates for proposed fusion are estimated using the base classifier performances, the variance in correlation between classifier decisions and the sequence of classifiers with favourable dependence selected using the 'Sequential Error Ratio' criteria. The error rates are better estimated by incorporating user-dependent (such as speaker-dependent thresholds and speaker-specific digit combinations) and class-dependent (such as clientimpostor dependent favourable combinations and class-error based threshold estimation) information. The proposed architecture is desirable in most of the speaker verification applications such as remote authentication, telephone and internet shopping applications. The tuning of parameters - the number of instances and samples - serve both the security and user convenience requirements of speaker-specific verification. The architecture investigated here is applicable to verification using other biometric modalities such as handwriting, fingerprints and key strokes.

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In this paper, a recently introduced model-based method for precedent-free fault detection and isolation (FDI) is modified to deal with multiple input, multiple output (MIMO) systems and is applied to an automotive engine with exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) system. Using normal behavior data generated by a high fidelity engine simulation, the growing structure multiple model system (GSMMS) approach is used to construct dynamic models of normal behavior for the EGR system and its constituent subsystems. Using the GSMMS models as a foundation, anomalous behavior is detected whenever statistically significant departures of the most recent modeling residuals away from the modeling residuals displayed during normal behavior are observed. By reconnecting the anomaly detectors (ADs) to the constituent subsystems, EGR valve, cooler, and valve controller faults are isolated without the need for prior training using data corresponding to particular faulty system behaviors.

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Background: There is currently no early predictive marker of survival for patients receiving chemotherapy for malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM). Tumour response may be predictive for overall survival (OS), though this has not been explored. We have thus undertaken a combined-analysis of OS, from a 42 day landmark, of 526 patients receiving systemic therapy for MPM. We also validate published progression-free survival rates (PFSRs) and a progression-free survival (PFS) prognostic-index model. Methods: Analyses included nine MPM clinical trials incorporating six European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) studies. Analysis of OS from landmark (from day 42 post-treatment) was considered regarding tumour response. PFSR analysis data included six non-EORTC MPM clinical trials. Prognostic index validation was performed on one non-EORTC data-set, with available survival data. Results: Median OS, from landmark, of patients with partial response (PR) was 12·8 months, stable disease (SD), 9·4 months and progressive disease (PD), 3·4 months. Both PR and SD were associated with longer OS from landmark compared with disease progression (both p < 0·0001). PFSRs for platinum-based combination therapies were consistent with published significant clinical activity ranges. Effective separation between PFS and OS curves provided a validation of the EORTC prognostic model, based on histology, stage and performance status. Conclusion: Response to chemotherapy is associated with significantly longer OS from landmark in patients with MPM. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Zinc oxide (ZnO) that contains non-magnetic ionic dopants, such as nitrogen (N)-doped zinc oxide (ZnO:N), has been observed to exhibit ferromagnetism. Ferromagnetism is proposed to arise from the Coulomb excitation in the localized states that is induced by the oxygen vacancy, V O. A model based on the Coulomb excitation that is associated with the electron–phonon interaction theoretically explains the ferromagnetic mechanism of ZnO:N. This study reveals that the ferromagnetism will be induced by either deep localized states with a small V O concentration or shallow localized states with a high V O concentration. Additionally, electron–phonon coupling either suppresses the ferromagnetism that is induced by the deep donor states of V O or enhances the ferromagnetism that is induced by the shallow donor states of V O.

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This project is a two phase design working in partnership with five universities to develop, implement and systematically embed a distributive leadership model that aims to embed peer partnership (review, development) within the culture of teaching and learning excellence. This presentation will posit a ‘prototype’ peer review leadership model based on ongoing research that brings together both the fundamentals of peer review with the broader importance of context and persons. It will be argued that essential to teaching development is a need to address not only the implementation of peer partnership programs but also strategies to influence and change both the contexts of teaching and the advantages for colleagues. Peer review as a strategy to develop excellence in teaching needs to be considered from a holistic perspective encompassing all elements of the teaching environment. The emphasis is on working to foster the type of conditions needed for leadership and change to begin and be sustained. The work has implications for policy, research, leadership development and student outcomes and has potential application world-wide. Phase 1 has collected focus interview and questionnaire data to inform the research and is being analysed using a thematic qualitative approach and statistical analysis. Evidence is emerging currently as the project is ongoing.

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An important responsibility of the Environment Protection Authority, Victoria, is to set objectives for levels of environmental contaminants. To support the development of environmental objectives for water quality, a need has been identified to understand the dual impacts of concentration and duration of a contaminant on biota in freshwater streams. For suspended solids contamination, information reported by Newcombe and Jensen [ North American Journal of Fisheries Management , 16(4):693--727, 1996] study of freshwater fish and the daily suspended solids data from the United States Geological Survey stream monitoring network is utilised. The study group was requested to examine both the utility of the Newcombe and Jensen and the USA data, as well as the formulation of a procedure for use by the Environment Protection Authority Victoria that takes concentration and duration of harmful episodes into account when assessing water quality. The extent to which the impact of a toxic event on fish health could be modelled deterministically was also considered. It was found that concentration and exposure duration were the main compounding factors on the severity of effects of suspended solids on freshwater fish. A protocol for assessing the cumulative effect on fish health and a simple deterministic model, based on the biology of gill harm and recovery, was proposed. References D. W. T. Au, C. A. Pollino, R. S. S Wu, P. K. S. Shin, S. T. F. Lau, and J. Y. M. Tang. Chronic effects of suspended solids on gill structure, osmoregulation, growth, and triiodothyronine in juvenile green grouper epinephelus coioides . Marine Ecology Press Series , 266:255--264, 2004. J.C. Bezdek, S.K. Chuah, and D. Leep. Generalized k-nearest neighbor rules. Fuzzy Sets and Systems , 18:237--26, 1986. E. T. Champagne, K. L. Bett-Garber, A. M. McClung, and C. Bergman. {Sensory characteristics of diverse rice cultivars as influenced by genetic and environmental factors}. Cereal Chem. , {81}:{237--243}, {2004}. S. G. Cheung and P. K. S. Shin. Size effects of suspended particles on gill damage in green-lipped mussel perna viridis. Marine Pollution Bulletin , 51(8--12):801--810, 2005. D. H. Evans. The fish gill: site of action and model for toxic effects of environmental pollutants. Environmental Health Perspectives , 71:44--58, 1987. G. C. Grigg. The failure of oxygen transport in a fish at low levels of ambient oxygen. Comp. Biochem. Physiol. , 29:1253--1257, 1969. G. Holmes, A. Donkin, and I.H. Witten. {Weka: A machine learning workbench}. In Proceedings of the Second Australia and New Zealand Conference on Intelligent Information Systems , volume {24}, pages {357--361}, {Brisbane, Australia}, {1994}. {IEEE Computer Society}. D. D. Macdonald and C. P. Newcombe. Utility of the stress index for predicting suspended sediment effects: response to comments. North American Journal of Fisheries Management , 13:873--876, 1993. C. P. Newcombe. Suspended sediment in aquatic ecosystems: ill effects as a function of concentration and duration of exposure. Technical report, British Columbia Ministry of Environment, Lands and Parks, Habitat Protection branch, Victoria, 1994. C. P. Newcombe and J. O. T. Jensen. Channel suspended sediment and fisheries: A synthesis for quantitative assessment of risk and impact. North American Journal of Fisheries Management , 16(4):693--727, 1996. C. P. Newcombe and D. D. Macdonald. Effects of suspended sediments on aquatic ecosystems. North American Journal of Fisheries Management , 11(1):72--82, 1991. K. Schmidt-Nielsen. Scaling. Why is animal size so important? Cambridge University Press, NY, 1984. J. S. Schwartz, A. Simon, and L. Klimetz. Use of fish functional traits to associate in-stream suspended sediment transport metrics with biological impairment. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment , 179(1--4):347--369, 2011. E. Al Shaw and J. S. Richardson. Direct and indirect effects of sediment pulse duration on stream invertebrate assemb ages and rainbow trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) growth and survival. Canadian Journal of Fish and Aquatic Science , 58:2213--2221, 2001. P. Tiwari and H. Hasegawa. {Demand for housing in Tokyo: A discrete choice analysis}. Regional Studies , {38}:{27--42}, {2004}. Y. Tramblay, A. Saint-Hilaire, T. B. M. J. Ouarda, F. Moatar, and B Hecht. Estimation of local extreme suspended sediment concentrations in california rivers. Science of the Total Environment , 408:4221--

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This project is a two phase design working in partnership with five universities to develop, implement and systematically embed a distributive leadership model that aims to embed peer partnership (review, development) within the culture of teaching and learning excellence. This presentation will posit a ‘prototype’ peer review leadership model based on ongoing research that brings together both the fundamentals of peer review with the broader importance of context and persons. It will be argued that essential to teaching development is a need to address not only the implementation of peer partnership programs but also strategies to influence and change both the contexts of teaching and the advantages for colleagues. Peer review as a strategy to develop excellence in teaching needs to be considered from a holistic perspective encompassing all elements of the teaching environment. The emphasis is on working to foster the type of conditions needed for leadership and change to begin and be sustained. The work has implications for policy, research, leadership development and student outcomes and has potential application world-wide. Phase 1 has collected focus interview and questionnaire data to inform the research and is being analysed using a thematic qualitative approach and statistical analysis Evidence is emerging currently as the project is ongoing

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Industrial transformer is one of the most critical assets in the power and heavy industry. Failures of transformers can cause enormous losses. The poor joints of the electrical circuit on transformers can cause overheating and results in stress concentration on the structure which is the major cause of catastrophic failure. Few researches have been focused on the mechanical properties of industrial transformers under overheating thermal conditions. In this paper, both mechanical and thermal properties of industrial transformers are jointly investigated using Finite Element Analysis (FEA). Dynamic response analysis is conducted on a modified transformer FEA model, and the computational results are compared with experimental results from literature to validate this simulation model. Based on the FEA model, thermal stress is calculated under different temperature conditions. These analysis results can provide insights to the understanding of the failure of transformers due to overheating, therefore are significant to assess winding fault, especially to the manufacturing and maintenance of large transformers.

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This paper presents a novel framework to further advance the recent trend of using query decomposition and high-order term relationships in query language modeling, which takes into account terms implicitly associated with different subsets of query terms. Existing approaches, most remarkably the language model based on the Information Flow method are however unable to capture multiple levels of associations and also suffer from a high computational overhead. In this paper, we propose to compute association rules from pseudo feedback documents that are segmented into variable length chunks via multiple sliding windows of different sizes. Extensive experiments have been conducted on various TREC collections and our approach significantly outperforms a baseline Query Likelihood language model, the Relevance Model and the Information Flow model.

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Commodity price modeling is normally approached in terms of structural time-series models, in which the different components (states) have a financial interpretation. The parameters of these models can be estimated using maximum likelihood. This approach results in a non-linear parameter estimation problem and thus a key issue is how to obtain reliable initial estimates. In this paper, we focus on the initial parameter estimation problem for the Schwartz-Smith two-factor model commonly used in asset valuation. We propose the use of a two-step method. The first step considers a univariate model based only on the spot price and uses a transfer function model to obtain initial estimates of the fundamental parameters. The second step uses the estimates obtained in the first step to initialize a re-parameterized state-space-innovations based estimator, which includes information related to future prices. The second step refines the estimates obtained in the first step and also gives estimates of the remaining parameters in the model. This paper is part tutorial in nature and gives an introduction to aspects of commodity price modeling and the associated parameter estimation problem.

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We consider the problem of combining opinions from different experts in an explicitly model-based way to construct a valid subjective prior in a Bayesian statistical approach. We propose a generic approach by considering a hierarchical model accounting for various sources of variation as well as accounting for potential dependence between experts. We apply this approach to two problems. The first problem deals with a food risk assessment problem involving modelling dose-response for Listeria monocytogenes contamination of mice. Two hierarchical levels of variation are considered (between and within experts) with a complex mathematical situation due to the use of an indirect probit regression. The second concerns the time taken by PhD students to submit their thesis in a particular school. It illustrates a complex situation where three hierarchical levels of variation are modelled but with a simpler underlying probability distribution (log-Normal).

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Precisely controlled reactive chemical vapor synthesis of highly uniform, dense arrays of vertically aligned single-walled carbon nanotubes (SWCNTs) using tailored trilayered Fe/Al2O3/SiO2 catalyst is demonstrated. More than 90% population of thick nanotubes (>3 nm in diameter) can be produced by tailoring the thickness and microstructure of the secondary catalyst supporting SiO2 layer, which is commonly overlooked. The proposed model based on the atomic force microanalysis suggests that this tailoring leads to uniform and dense arrays of relatively large Fe catalyst nanoparticles on which the thick SWCNTs nucleate, while small nanotubes and amorphous carbon are effectively etched away. Our results resolve a persistent issue of selective (while avoiding multiwalled nanotubes and other carbon nanostructures) synthesis of thick vertically aligned SWCNTs whose easily switchable thickness-dependent electronic properties enable advanced applications in nanoelectronic, energy, drug delivery, and membrane technologies.

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This article presents a study of how humans perceive and judge the relevance of documents. Humans are adept at making reasonably robust and quick decisions about what information is relevant to them, despite the ever increasing complexity and volume of their surrounding information environment. The literature on document relevance has identified various dimensions of relevance (e.g., topicality, novelty, etc.), however little is understood about how these dimensions may interact. We performed a crowdsourced study of how human subjects judge two relevance dimensions in relation to document snippets retrieved from an internet search engine. The order of the judgment was controlled. For those judgments exhibiting an order effect, a q–test was performed to determine whether the order effects can be explained by a quantum decision model based on incompatible decision perspectives. Some evidence of incompatibility was found which suggests incompatible decision perspectives is appropriate for explaining interacting dimensions of relevance in such instances.

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Chaperone-usher (CU) fimbriae are adhesive surface organelles common to many Gram-negative bacteria. Escherichia coli genomes contain a large variety of characterised and putative CU fimbrial operons, however, the classification and annotation of individual loci remains problematic. Here we describe a classification model based on usher phylogeny and genomic locus position to categorise the CU fimbrial types of E. coli. Using the BLASTp algorithm, an iterative usher protein search was performed to identify CU fimbrial operons from 35 E. coli (and one Escherichia fergusonnii) genomes representing different pathogenic and phylogenic lineages, as well as 132 Escherichia spp. plasmids. A total of 458 CU fimbrial operons were identified, which represent 38 distinct fimbrial types based on genomic locus position and usher phylogeny. The majority of fimbrial operon types occupied a specific locus position on the E. coli chromosome; exceptions were associated with mobile genetic elements. A group of core-associated E. coli CU fimbriae were defined and include the Type 1, Yad, Yeh, Yfc, Mat, F9 and Ybg fimbriae. These genes were present as intact or disrupted operons at the same genetic locus in almost all genomes examined. Evaluation of the distribution and prevalence of CU fimbrial types among different pathogenic and phylogenic groups provides an overview of group specific fimbrial profiles and insight into the ancestry and evolution of CU fimbriae in E. coli.