920 resultados para Markov Chains


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Increasing food production to feed its rapidly growing population is a major policy goal of Pakistan. The production of traditional staples such as rice (Oryza sativa L.) and bread wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) has been intensified in many regions, but not in remote, drought-ridden areas. In these arid, marginal environments dates and their by-products are an option to complement staples given their high nutritive value and storability. To fill knowledge gaps about the role of date palm in the household (HH) income of rural communities and the structure of date value chains, this project studied date palm production across six districts in four provinces of Pakistan. During 2012–2013 a total of 170 HHs were interviewed with a structured questionnaire using a snowball sampling approach. The results showed that most of the HH were headed by males (99 %) who were married (74 %) and often illiterate (40 %). Agriculture was the main occupation of date palm growers (56 %), while a few coupled agricultural activities with business (17 %) or extra-farm employment opportunities (government 9 %; private sector 8 %). Date sales contributed >50 % to the total income of 39 % of HH and 90–100 % to 24 % of HH. Overall farmers grew a total of 39 date palm cultivars and cultivated an average of 409 ± 559 mature date palms. The majority of the respondents sold dates to commission agents (35 %), contractors (22 %) and wholesalers (21 %), while 28 % of HH cultivated date palms only for self-consumption. Date palm growers had only limited knowledge about high quality date cultivars, optimized farm management and about effective post-harvest conservation. Changes in extension and marketing efforts are needed to allow farmers to better exploit value chains in date thereby reaping higher benefits from improved market access to secure their often marginal income.

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The Agenda 2030 contains 17 integrated Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). SDG 12 for Sustainable Consumption and Production (SCP) promotes the efficient use of resources through a systemic change that decouples economic growth from environmental degradation. The Food Systems (FS) pillar in SDG 12 entails paramount relevance due to its interconnection to many other SDGs, and even when being a crucial world food supplier, the Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) Region struggles with environmental and social externalities, low investment in agriculture, inequity, food insecurity, poverty, and migration. Life Cycle Thinking (LCT) was regarded as a pertinent approach to identify hotspots and trade-offs, and support decision-making process to aid LAC Region countries as Costa Rica to diagnose sustainability and overcome certain challenges. This thesis aimed to ‘evaluate the sustainability of selected products from food supply chains in Costa Rica, to provide inputs for further sustainable decision-making, through the application of Life Cycle Thinking’. To do this, Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), Life Cycle Costing (LCC), and Social Life Cycle Assessment (S-LCA) evaluated the sustainability of food-waste-to-energy alternatives, and the production of green coffee, raw milk and leafy vegetables, and identified environmental, social and cost hotspots. This approach also proved to be a useful component of decision-making and policy-making processes together with other methods. LCT scientific literature led by LAC or Costa Rican researchers is still scarce; therefore, this research contributed to improve capacities in the use of LCT in this context, while offering potential replicability of the developed frameworks in similar cases. Main limitations related to the representativeness and availability of primary data; however, future research and extension activities are foreseen to increase local data availability, capacity building, and the discussion of potential integration through Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment (LCSA).

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The agricultural sector is undoubtedly one of the sectors that has the greatest impact on the use of water and energy to produce food. The circular economy allows to reduce waste, obtaining maximum value from products and materials, through the extraction of all possible by-products from resources. Circular economy principles for agriculture include recycling, processing, and reusing agricultural waste in order to produce bioenergy, nutrients, and biofertilizers. Since agro-industrial wastes are principally composed of lignin, cellulose, and hemicellulose they can represent a suitable substrate for mushroom growth and cultivation. Mushrooms are also considered healthy foods with several medicinal properties. The thesis is structured in seven chapters. In the first chapter an introduction on the water, energy, food nexus, on agro-industrial wastes and on how they can be used for mushroom cultivation is given. Chapter 2 details the aims of this dissertation thesis. In chapters three and four, corn digestate and hazelnut shells were successfully used for mushroom cultivation and their lignocellulosic degradation capacity were assessed by using ATR-FTIR spectroscopy. In chapter five, through the use of the Surface-enhanced Raman Scattering (SERS) spectroscopy was possible to set-up a new method for studying mushroom composition and for identifying different mushroom species based on their spectrum. In chapter six, the isolation of different strains of fungi from plastic residues collected in the fields and the ability of these strains to growth and colonizing the Low-density Polyethylene (LDPE) were explored. The structural modifications of the LDPE, by the most efficient fungal strain, Cladosporium cladosporioides Clc/1 strain were monitored by using the Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM) and ATR-FTIR spectroscopy. Finally, chapter seven outlines the conclusions and some hints for future works and applications are provided.

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The great challenges of today pose great pressure on the food chain to provide safe and nutritious food that meets regulations and consumer health standards. In this context, Risk Analysis is used to produce an estimate of the risks to human health and to identify and implement effective risk-control measures. The aims of this work were 1) describe how QRA is used to evaluate the risk for consumers health, 2) address the methodology to obtain models to apply in QMRA; 3) evaluate solutions to mitigate the risk. The application of a QCRA to the Italian milk industry enabled the assessment of Aflatoxin M1 exposure, impact on different population categories, and comparison of risk-mitigation strategies. The results highlighted the most sensitive population categories, and how more stringent sampling plans reduced risk. The application of a QMRA to Spanish fresh cheeses evidenced how the contamination of this product with Listeria monocytogenes may generate a risk for the consumers. Two risk-mitigation actions were evaluated, i.e. reducing shelf life and domestic refrigerator temperature, both resulting effective in reducing the risk of listeriosis. A description of the most applied protocols for data generation for predictive model development, was provided to increase transparency and reproducibility and to provide the means to better QMRA. The development of a linear regression model describing the fate of Salmonella spp. in Italian salami during the production process and HPP was described. Alkaline electrolyzed water was evaluated for its potential use to reduce microbial loads on working surfaces, with results showing its effectiveness. This work showed the relevance of QRA, of predictive microbiology, and of new technologies to ensure food safety on a more integrated way. Filling of data gaps, the development of better models and the inclusion of new risk-mitigation strategies may lead to improvements in the presented QRAs.

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The challenges of the current global food systems are often framed around feeding the world's growing population while meeting sustainable development for future generations. Globalization has brought to a fragmentation of food spaces, leading to a flexible and mutable supply chain. This poses a major challenge to food and nutrition security, affecting also rural-urban dynamics in territories. Furthermore, the recent crises have highlighted the vulnerability to shocks and disruptions of the food systems and the eco-system due to the intensive management of natural, human and economic capital. Hence, a sustainable and resilient transition of the food systems is required through a multi-faceted approach that tackles the causes of unsustainability and promotes sustainable practices at all levels of the food system. In this respect, a territorial approach becomes a relevant entry point of analysis for the food system’s multifunctionality and can support the evaluation of sustainability by quantifying impacts associated with quantitative methods and understanding the territorial responsibility of different actors with qualitative ones. Against this background the present research aims to i) investigate the environmental, costing and social indicators suitable for a scoring system able to measure the integrated sustainability performance of food initiatives within the City/Region territorial context; ii) develop a territorial assessment framework to measure sustainability impacts of agricultural systems; and iii) define an integrated methodology to match production and consumption at a territorial level to foster a long-term vision of short food supply chains. From a methodological perspective, the research proposes a mixed quantitative and qualitative research method. The outcomes provide an in-depth view into the environmental and socio-economic impacts of food systems at the territorial level, investigating possible indicators, frameworks, and business strategies to foster their future sustainable development.

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The established isotropic tomographic models show the features of subduction zones in terms of seismic velocity anomalies, but they are generally subjected to the generation of artifacts due to the lack of anisotropy in forward modelling. There is evidence for the significant influence of seismic anisotropy in the mid-upper mantle, especially for boundary layers like subducting slabs. As consequence, in isotropic models artifacts may be misinterpreted as compositional or thermal heterogeneities. In this thesis project the application of a trans-dimensional Metropolis-Hastings method is investigated in the context of anisotropic seismic tomography. This choice arises as a response to the important limitations introduced by traditional inversion methods which use iterative procedures of optimization of a function object of the inversion. On the basis of a first implementation of the Bayesian sampling algorithm, the code is tested with some cartesian two-dimensional models, and then extended to polar coordinates and dimensions typical of subduction zones, the main focus proposed for this method. Synthetic experiments with increasing complexity are realized to test the performance of the method and the precautions for multiple contexts, taking into account also the possibility to apply seismic ray-tracing iteratively. The code developed is tested mainly for 2D inversions, future extensions will allow the anisotropic inversion of seismological data to provide more realistic imaging of real subduction zones, less subjected to generation of artifacts.

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The purpose of this thesis is to clarify the role of non-equilibrium stationary currents of Markov processes in the context of the predictability of future states of the system. Once the connection between the predictability and the conditional entropy is established, we provide a comprehensive approach to the definition of a multi-particle Markov system. In particular, starting from the well-known theory of random walk on network, we derive the non-linear master equation for an interacting multi-particle system under the one-step process hypothesis, highlighting the limits of its tractability and the prop- erties of its stationary solution. Lastly, in order to study the impact of the NESS on the predictability at short times, we analyze the conditional entropy by modulating the intensity of the stationary currents, both for a single-particle and a multi-particle Markov system. The results obtained analytically are numerically tested on a 5-node cycle network and put in correspondence with the stationary entropy production. Furthermore, because of the low dimensionality of the single-particle system, an analysis of its spectral properties as a function of the modulated stationary currents is performed.

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Studio della teoria dei processi di semi-Markov nella modellizzazione a tempo discreto. Introduzione delle catene di rinnovo di Markov, del nucleo di semi-Markov e delle catene di semi-Markov, risultati ad essi relativi. Analisi delle equazioni di rinnovo di Markov, caratterizzazione degli stati di una catena di semi-Markov, teorema di esistenza e unicità dell'equazione di rinnovo di Markov. Un esempio concreto.

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In the title compound, C17H15NO4, the conformation about the C=C double bond [1.348 (2) Å] is E with the ketone group almost co-planar [C-C-C-C torsion angle = 7.2 (2)°] but the phenyl group twisted away [C-C-C-C = 160.93 (17)°]. The terminal aromatic rings are almost perpendicular to each other [dihedral angle = 81.61 (9)°] giving the mol-ecule an overall U-shape. The crystal packing feature benzene-C-H⋯O(ketone) contacts that lead to supra-molecular helical chains along the b axis. These are connected by π-π inter-actions between benzene and phenyl rings [inter-centroid distance = 3.6648 (14) Å], resulting in the formation of a supra-molecular layer in the bc plane.

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In the title compound, C17H14N2O6, the conformation about the C=C double bond [1.345 (2) Å] is E, with the ketone moiety almost coplanar [C-C-C-C torsion angle = 9.5 (2)°] along with the phenyl ring [C-C-C-C = 5.9 (2)°]. The aromatic rings are almost perpendicular to each other [dihedral angle = 86.66 (7)°]. The 4-nitro moiety is approximately coplanar with the benzene ring to which it is attached [O-N-C-C = 4.2 (2)°], whereas the one in the ortho position is twisted [O-N-C-C = 138.28 (13)°]. The mol-ecules associate via C-H⋯O inter-actions, involving both O atoms from the 2-nitro group, to form a helical supra-molecular chain along [010]. Nitro-nitro N⋯O inter-actions [2.8461 (19) Å] connect the chains into layers that stack along [001].

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Often in biomedical research, we deal with continuous (clustered) proportion responses ranging between zero and one quantifying the disease status of the cluster units. Interestingly, the study population might also consist of relatively disease-free as well as highly diseased subjects, contributing to proportion values in the interval [0, 1]. Regression on a variety of parametric densities with support lying in (0, 1), such as beta regression, can assess important covariate effects. However, they are deemed inappropriate due to the presence of zeros and/or ones. To evade this, we introduce a class of general proportion density, and further augment the probabilities of zero and one to this general proportion density, controlling for the clustering. Our approach is Bayesian and presents a computationally convenient framework amenable to available freeware. Bayesian case-deletion influence diagnostics based on q-divergence measures are automatic from the Markov chain Monte Carlo output. The methodology is illustrated using both simulation studies and application to a real dataset from a clinical periodontology study.

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We perform variational studies of the interaction-localization problem to describe the interaction-induced renormalizations of the effective (screened) random potential seen by quasiparticles. Here we present results of careful finite-size scaling studies for the conductance of disordered Hubbard chains at half-filling and zero temperature. While our results indicate that quasiparticle wave functions remain exponentially localized even in the presence of moderate to strong repulsive interactions, we show that interactions produce a strong decrease of the characteristic conductance scale g^{*} signaling the crossover to strong localization. This effect, which cannot be captured by a simple renormalization of the disorder strength, instead reflects a peculiar non-Gaussian form of the spatial correlations of the screened disordered potential, a hitherto neglected mechanism to dramatically reduce the impact of Anderson localization (interference) effects.

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Three compounds have been synthesized with formulae [3-MeRad][Ni(dmit)2] (1), [4-MeRad][Ni(dmit)2] (2) and [4-PrRad][Ni(dmit)2] (3) where [Ni(dmit)2]- is an anionic pi-radical (dmit = 1,3-dithiol-2-thione-4,5-dithiolate) and [3-MeRad]+ is 3-N-methylpyridinium alpha-nitronyl nitroxide, [4-MeRad]+ is 4-N-methylpyridinium alpha-nitronyl nitroxide and [4-PrRad]+ is 4-N-propylpyridinium alpha-nitronyl nitroxide. The temperature-dependent magnetic susceptibility of 1 revealed that an antiferromagnetic interaction operates between the 3-MeRad+ radical cations with exchange coupling constants of J1 = - 1.72 cm-1 and antiferromagnetism assigned to the spin ladder chains of the Ni(dmit)2 radical anions. Compound 1 exhibits semiconducting behavior and 3 presents capacitor behavior in the temperature range studied (4 - 300 K).

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Thermosensitive hydrogels were synthesized using alginate-Ca2+ in association with a thermosensitive polymer, such as PNIPAAm. The mechanical properties of the hydrogels were determined measuring the maximum tension of deformation. With the increase of the temperature by 25 to 40 ºC above the LCST the chains of PNIPAAm collapsed, dragging the alginate net and diminishing the size of the pores. The decrease in the size of the pores of the hydrogel was followed by an increase in the mechanicals resistance of the material.

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Neste artigo, investiga-se a adoção de canais alternativos para a comercialização de produtos agrícolas como forma de atenuar o poder, cada vez maior, exercido pelas grandes redes varejistas. O artigo investiga a decisão - e os efeitos daí decorrentes - de uma determinada empresa sediada no interior paulista, agrícola Pedra Branca, quanto à operacionalização verticalizada de uma butique de frutas, legumes e verduras (FLVs). Consciente dos novos padrões demandados pelo consumidor, a estratégia da empresa alvo do estudo foi combinar a oferta regular de produtos frescos, de qualidade intrínseca padronizada e preços atrativos, a um serviço diferenciado, baseado em um alto valor na experiência de compra. Esta estratégia fundamenta-se no anseio dos consumidores de, mais do que simplesmente adquirir produtos, experimentar sensações, as quais vividas em momentos de lazer exerceriam um grande poder de diferenciação. Realizou-se um estudo de caso baseado em entrevistas em profundidade semiestruturadas com diretores e gerentes da empresa. Como resultado, as evidências empíricas sugerem: 1) a verticalização (integração vertical) da atividade de comercialização como uma alternativa para a apropriação de valor da produção ao longo do canal de distribuição; e 2) o desafio da gestão do suprimento como requisito-chave para a adequada gestão do valor de uma marca. Considera-se oportuno lembrar, porém, que, em decorrência das limitações próprias da metodologia de estudos de caso, estas tais evidências devem ser entendidas como proposição a ser testada em trabalhos quantitativos futuros, ou mesmo melhor embasada via condução de estudos multicaso.