Time-series forecasting of pollutant concentration levels using particle swarm optimization and artificial neural networks

This study evaluates the application of an intelligent hybrid system for time-series forecasting of atmospheric pollutant concentration levels. The proposed method consists of an artificial neural network combined with a particle swarm optimization algorithm. The method not only searches relevant time lags for the correct characterization of the time series, but also determines the best neural network architecture. An experimental analysis is performed using four real time series and the results are shown in terms of six performance measures. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed methodology achieves a fair prediction of the presented pollutant time series by using compact networks.

The effect of the birth hospital and the time of birth on the outcome of Finnish very preterm infants

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of the birth hospital and the time of birth on mortality and the long-term outcome of Finnish very low birth weight (VLBW) or very low gestational age (VLGA) infants. This study included all Finnish VLBW/VLGA infants born at <32 gestational weeks or with a birth weight of ≤1500g, and controls born full-term and healthy. In the first part of the study, the mortality of VLBW/VLGA infants born in 2000–2003 was studied. The second part of the study consisted of a five-year follow-up of VLBW/VLGA infants born in 2001–2002. The study was performed using data from parental questionnaires and several registers. The one-year mortality rate was 11% for live-born VLBW/VLGA infants, 22% for live-born and stillborn VLBW/VLGA infants, and 0% for the controls. In live-born and in all (including stillbirths) VLBW/VLGA infants, the adjusted mortality was lower among those born in level III hospitals compared with level II hospitals. Mortality rates of live-born VLBW/VLGA infants differed according to the university hospital district where the birth hospital was located, but there were no differences in mortality between the districts when stillborn infants were included. There was a trend towards lower mortality rates in VLBW/VLGA infants born during office hours compared with those born outside office hours (night time, weekends, and public holidays). When stillborn infants were included, this difference according to the time of birth was significant. Among five-year-old VLBW/VLGA children, morbidity, use of health care resources, and problems in behaviour and development were more common in comparison with the controls. The health-related quality of life of the surviving VLBW/VLGA children was good but, statistically, it was significantly lower than among the controls. The median and the mean number of quality-adjusted life-years were 4.6 and 3.6 out of a maximum five years for all VLBW/VLGA children. For the controls, the median was 4.8 and the mean was 4.9. Morbidity rates, the use of health care resources, and the mean quality-adjusted life-years differed for VLBW/VLGA children according to the university hospital district of birth. However, the time of birth, the birth hospital level or university hospital district were not associated with the health-related quality of life, nor with behavioural and developmental scores of the survivors at the age of five years. In conclusion, the decreased mortality in level III hospitals was not gained at the expense of long-term problems. The results indicate that VLBW/VLGA deliveries should be centralized to level III hospitals and the regional differences in the treatment practices should further be clarified. A long-term follow-up on the outcome of VLBW/VLGA infants is important in order to recognize the critical periods of care and to optimise the care. In the future, quality-adjusted life-years can be used as a uniform measure for comparing the effectiveness of care between VLBW/VLGA infants and different patient groups

Finnish Critical Industries, Maritime Transport Vulnerabilities and societal Implications

Maritime transports are very essential for Finland as over 80% of the foreign trade in the country is seaborne and possibilities to carry out these transports by are limited. Any disruption in maritime transports has negative consequences to many sectors in the Finnish economy. Maritime transport thus represents critical infrastructure for Finland. This report focuses on the importance of maritime transports on security of supply in Finland and for the so called critical industries in particular. The report summarizes the results of the Work Package 2 of the research project STOCA – “Study of cargo flows in the Gulf of Finland in emergency situations”. The aim of the research was to analyze the cargo flows and infrastructure that are vital for maintaining security of supply in Finland, as well as the consequences of disruptions in the maritime traffic for the Finnish critical industries and for the Finnish society. In the report we give a presentation of the infrastructure and transport routes which are critical for maintaining security of supply in Finland. We discuss import dependency of the critical industries, and the importance of the Gulf of Finland ports for Finland. We assess vulnerabilities associated with the critical material flows of the critical industries, and possibilities for alternative routings in case either one or several of the ports in Finland would be closed. As a concrete example of a transport disruption we analyze the consequences of the Finnish stevedore strike at public ports (4.3.–19.3.2010). The strike stopped approximately 80% of the Finnish foreign trade. As a result of the strike Finnish companies could not export their products and/or import raw materials, components and spare parts, or other essential supplies. We carried out personal interviews with representatives of the companies in Finnish critical industries to find out about the problems caused by the strike, how companies carried out they transports and how they managed to continue their operations during the strike. Discussions with the representatives of the companies gave us very practical insights about companies’ preparedness towards transport disruptions in general. Companies in the modern world are very vulnerable to transport disruptions because companies regardless of industries have tried to improve their performance by optimizing their resources and e.g. by reducing their inventory levels. At the same time they have become more and more dependent on continuous transports. Most companies involved in foreign trade have global operations and global supply chains, so any disruption anywhere in the world can have an impact on the operations of the company causing considerable financial loss. The volcanic eruption in Iceland in April 2010 stopping air traffic in the whole Northern Europe and most recently the earth quake causing a tsunami in Japan in March 2011 are examples of severe disruptions causing considerable negative impacts to companies’ supply chains. Even though the Finnish stevedore strike was a minor disruption compared to the natural catastrophes mentioned above, it showed the companies’ vulnerability to transport disruptions very concretely. The Finnish stevedore strike gave a concrete learning experience of the importance of preventive planning for all Finnish companies: it made them re-think their practical preparedness towards transport risks and how they can continue with their daily operations despite the problems. Many companies realized they need to adapt their long-term countermeasures against transport disruptions. During the strike companies did various actions to secure their supply chains. The companies raised their inventory levels before the strike began, they re-scheduled or postponed their deliveries, shifted customer orders between production plants among their company’s production network or in the extreme case bought finished products from their competitor to fulfil their customers’ order. Our results also show that possibilities to prepare against transport disruptions differ between industries. The Finnish society as a whole is very dependent on imports of energy, various raw materials and other supplies needed by the different industries. For many of the Finnish companies in the export industries and e.g. in energy production maritime transport is the only transport mode the companies can use due to large volumes of materials transported or due to other characteristics of the goods. Therefore maritime transport cannot be replaced by any other transport mode. In addition, a significant amount of transports are concentrated in certain ports. From a security of supply perspective attention should be paid to finding ways to decrease import dependency and ensuring that companies in the critical industries can ensure the continuity of their operations.

The analysis and mitigation of risks in FMCG supply chain: the case of British American Tobacco Eastern Europe

This work investigates the Bullwhip Effect, which is one of the most important phenomena in contemporary supply chain management. The author uses most recent theoretical apparatus to analyze operational activities of a leading FMCG company British American Tobacco Eastern Europe. This paper investigates and describes the process in BAT supply chain management and considers the impact of the Bullwhip Effect together with the potential risks threatening company's operations. Emergence of the Bullwhip Effect leads to supply chain inefficiency. This paper contains methodological supply chain risk mitigation recommendations, description of a real case study and an analytical study of internal and external supply chain processes

Modeling and Analysis of Noise and Interconnects for On-Chip Communication Link Design

This thesis considers modeling and analysis of noise and interconnects in onchip communication. Besides transistor count and speed, the capabilities of a modern design are often limited by on-chip communication links. These links typically consist of multiple interconnects that run parallel to each other for long distances between functional or memory blocks. Due to the scaling of technology, the interconnects have considerable electrical parasitics that affect their performance, power dissipation and signal integrity. Furthermore, because of electromagnetic coupling, the interconnects in the link need to be considered as an interacting group instead of as isolated signal paths. There is a need for accurate and computationally effective models in the early stages of the chip design process to assess or optimize issues affecting these interconnects. For this purpose, a set of analytical models is developed for on-chip data links in this thesis. First, a model is proposed for modeling crosstalk and intersymbol interference. The model takes into account the effects of inductance, initial states and bit sequences. Intersymbol interference is shown to affect crosstalk voltage and propagation delay depending on bus throughput and the amount of inductance. Next, a model is proposed for the switching current of a coupled bus. The model is combined with an existing model to evaluate power supply noise. The model is then applied to reduce both functional crosstalk and power supply noise caused by a bus as a trade-off with time. The proposed reduction method is shown to be effective in reducing long-range crosstalk noise. The effects of process variation on encoded signaling are then modeled. In encoded signaling, the input signals to a bus are encoded using additional signaling circuitry. The proposed model includes variation in both the signaling circuitry and in the wires to calculate the total delay variation of a bus. The model is applied to study level-encoded dual-rail and 1-of-4 signaling. In addition to regular voltage-mode and encoded voltage-mode signaling, current-mode signaling is a promising technique for global communication. A model for energy dissipation in RLC current-mode signaling is proposed in the thesis. The energy is derived separately for the driver, wire and receiver termination.

Induction of labor with titrated oral misoprostol solution versus oxytocin in term pregnancy: randomized controlled trial

PURPOSE: To evaluate the effectiveness and the safety of orally administered misoprostol in comparison to intravenously infused oxytocin for labor induction in term pregnant women. METHODS: Between 2008 and 2010, a total of 285 term pregnant women whom were candidate for vaginal delivery were assessed for eligibility to enter the study. Twenty five patients were excluded for different reasons; and 260 included women were randomly assigned to one of the two groups according to the method of treatment, misoprostol or oxytocin. The misoprostol group received 25 µg every 2 hours for up to 24 hours for induction. The oxytocin group received an infusion of 10 IU which was gradually increased. The time from induction to delivery and induction to the beginning of the active phase and successful inductions within 12, 18, and 24 hours were recorded. The trial is registered at irct.ir, number IRCT2012061910068N1. RESULTS: Failure of induction, leading to caesarean section was around 38.3% in the oxytocin group and significantly higher than that of the misoprostol group (20.3%) (p<0.001). Despite the more prevalent failure in the oxytocin group, the mean time intervals from induction to active phase and labor of this group were both significantly less than the misoprostol group (10.1±6.1 and 13.2±7.7 versus 12.9±5.4 and 15.6±5.1 hours respectively, both p-values were <0.05). Maternal and fetal complications were comparable between groups except gastrointestinal symptoms which were encountered more frequently in the misoprostol (10.9 versus 3.9%, p=0.03). CONCLUSIONS: Misoprostol is a safe and effective drug with low complications for the induction of labor. Failure is seen less with misoprostol and caesarean sections are less frequently indicated as compared to oxytocin.

Opportunities, constraints and constrained opportunities – A study on mothers’ working time patterns in 22 European countries

The aim of this study was to analyse mothers’ working time patterns across 22 European countries. The focus was on three questions: how much mothers prefer to work, how much they actually work, and to what degree their preferred and actual working times are (in)consistent with each other. The focus was on cross-national differences in mothers’ working time patterns, comparison of mothers’ working times to that of childless women and fathers, as well as on individual- and country-level factors that explain the variation between them. In the theoretical background, the departure point was an integrative theoretical approach where the assumption is that there are various kinds of explanations for the differences in mothers’ working time patterns – namely structural, cultural and institutional – , and that these factors are laid in two levels: individual- and country-levels. Data were extracted from the European Social Survey (ESS) 2010 / 2011. The results showed that mothers’ working time patterns, both preferred and actual working times, varied across European countries. Four clusters were formed to illustrate the differences. In the full-time pattern, full-time work was the most important form of work, leaving all other working time forms marginal. The full-time pattern was perceived in terms of preferred working times in Bulgaria and Portugal. In polarised pattern countries, fulltime work was also important, but it was accompanied by a large share of mothers not working at all. In the case of preferred working times, many Eastern and Southern European countries followed it whereas in terms of actual working times it included all Eastern and Southern European countries as well as Finland. The combination pattern was characterised by the importance of long part-time hours and full-time work. It was the preferred working time pattern in the Nordic countries, France, Slovenia, and Spain, but Belgium, Denmark, France, Norway, and Sweden followed it in terms of actual working times. The fourth cluster that described mothers’ working times was called the part-time pattern, and it was illustrated by the prevalence of short and long part-time work. In the case of preferred working times, it was followed in Belgium, Germany, Ireland, the Netherlands and Switzerland. Besides Belgium, the part-time pattern was followed in the same countries in terms of actual working times. The consistency between preferred and actual working times was rather strong in a majority of countries. However, six countries fell under different working time patterns when preferred and actual working times were compared. Comparison of working mothers’, childless women’s, and fathers’ working times showed that differences between these groups were surprisingly small. It was only in part-time pattern countries that working mothers worked significantly shorter hours than working childless women and fathers. Results therefore revealed that when mothers’ working times are under study, an important question regarding the population examined is whether it consists of all mothers or only working mothers. Results moreover supported the use of the integrative theoretical approach when studying mothers’ working time patterns. Results indicate that mothers’ working time patterns in all countries are shaped by various opportunities and constraints, which are comprised of structural, cultural, institutional, and individual-level factors.

Gene expression of estrogen and oxytocin receptors in the uterus of pregnant and parturient bitches

In the canine species, the precise mechanisms of pregnancy maintenance and the initiation of parturition are not completely understood. The expression of genes encoding the receptors for estrogen (ERα mRNA) and oxytocin (OTR mRNA) was studied in the endometrium and myometrium during pregnancy and parturition in dogs. Real-time PCR was performed to quantify the levels of ERα mRNA and OTR mRNA in the uterus of bitches during early (up to 20 days of gestation), mid (20 to 40 days) and late pregnancy (41 to 60 days), and parturition (first stage of labor). All tissues expressed ERα and OTR mRNA, and are thus possibly able to respond to eventual estrogen and oxytocin hormonal stimuli. No statistically significant differences in the expression of ERα mRNA were verified in the endometrium and myometrium throughout pregnancy and parturition, but expression of OTR mRNA increased at both parturition and late pregnancy. We concluded that the increase of endometrial and myometrial OTR mRNA expression in dogs is not an event dependent on estrogenic stimulation. Moreover, the contractility response of the canine uterus to oxytocin begins during pregnancy and maintains myometrial activity. The expression of OTR mRNA in canine uterine tissues varied over time, which supports an interpretation that the sensitivity and response to hormone therapy varies during the course of pregnancy and labor. Further studies are needed to elucidate the factors underlying the synthesis of uterine oxytocin receptors and the possible role of ERβ rather than ERα in the uterine tissues during pregnancy and parturition in dogs.

Economic growth, labor and productivity in Brazil and the United States: a comparative analysis

The aim of this paper is to analyze the relation between economic growth and labor market dynamics in Brazil between 1981 and 2009, making a comparison with the United States. Among the findings, one can mention that economic growth in Brazil has been related to a massive incorporation of labor force in labor intensive activities, whereas, in the United States, to a substantial improvement of labor productivity in high-technology activities. Despite the favorable economic context in the 2000s, huge inequalities between these countries have widened since the structure of the Brazilian labor market remained with few or no changes.

The capillary supply of human skeletal muscle in health and disease

BACKGROUND: Capillaries function to provide a surface area for nutrient and waste exchange with cells. The capillary supply of skeletal muscle is highly organized, and therefore, represents an excellent choice to study factors regulating diffusion. Muscle is comprised of three specific fibre types, each with specific contractile and metabolic characteristics, which influence the capillary supply of a given muscle; in addition, both environmental and genetic factors influence the capillary supply, including aging, physical training, and various disease processes. OBJECTIVE: The present study was undertaken to develop and assess the functionality of a data base, from which virtual experiments can be conducted on the capillary supply of human muscle, and the adaptations of the capillary bed in muscle to various perturbations. METHODS: To create the database, an extensive search of the literature was conducted using various search engines, and the three key words - "capillary, muscle, and human". This search yielded 169 papers from which the data for the 46 variables on the capillary supply and fibre characteristics of muscle were extracted for inclusion in the database. A series of statistical analyses (ANOVA) were done on the capillary database to examine differences in skeletal muscle capillarization and fibre characteristics between young and old individuals, between healthy and diseased individuals, and between untrained, endurance trained, endurance welltrained, and resistance trained individuals, using SAS. RESULTS: There was a significantly higher capillarization in the young compared to the old individuals, in the healthy compared to the diseased individuals, and in the endurance-trained and endurance well-trained compared to the untrained individuals. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study support the conclusion that the capillary supply of skeletal muscle is closely regulated by factors aimed at optimizing oxygen and nutrient supply and/or waste removal in response to changes in muscle mass and/or metabolic activity.

A Case Study of Doctoral Research Assistantships: Access and Experiences of Full-Time and Part-Time Education Students

Graduate students’ development as researchers is a key objective in higher education. Research assistantships provide distinctive spaces where graduate students can be nurtured and shaped as novice researchers as they develop theoretical and methodological knowledge. However, few scholars have investigated graduate student research assistants’ experiences and the ways these experiences are influenced by institutional regulations, informal practices, and social relations. The purpose of this case-within-a-case study was to explore the research assistantship experiences of full-time and part-time doctoral students in Education at an Ontario university. I present separate subcases for full-time and part-time students, and an overarching case of research assistantships in one program at a specific period of time. The main question was how do institutional regulations, informal practices, and social relations influence full-time and part-time doctoral students’ access to and experiences within research assistantships. My objective was to draw from interviews and documents to acquire a thorough understanding of the organizational characteristics of research assistantships (i.e., structures of access, distribution, and coordination of participation) to explore the ways institutional regulations, informal practices, and social relations promote, prevent, or limit full-time and part-time students’ legitimate peripheral participation in research assistantships. Although I devoted particular attention to the ways students’ full-time and part-time status shaped their decisions, relationships, and experiences, I was conscious that other factors such as gender, age, and cultural background may have also influenced doctoral research assistant experiences.

Sector-Specific on-the-Job Training: Evidence from U.S. Data.

Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY), we re-examine the effect of formal on-the-job training on mobility patterns of young American workers. By employing parametric duration models, we evaluate the economic impact of training on productive time with an employer. Confirming previous studies, we find a positive and statistically significant impact of formal on-the-job training on tenure with the employer providing the training. However, the expected net duration of the time spent in the training program is generally not significantly increased. We proceed to document and analyze intra-sectoral and cross-sectoral mobility patterns in order to infer whether training provides firm-specific, industry-specific, or general human capital. The econometric analysis rejects a sequential model of job separation in favor of a competing risks specification. We find significant evidence for the industry-specificity of training. The probability of sectoral mobility upon job separation decreases with training received in the current industry, whether with the last employer or previous employers, and employment attachment increases with on-the-job training. These results are robust to a number of variations on the base model.

Finite-Sample Simulation-Based Inference in VAR Models with Applications to Order Selection and Causality Testing

Statistical tests in vector autoregressive (VAR) models are typically based on large-sample approximations, involving the use of asymptotic distributions or bootstrap techniques. After documenting that such methods can be very misleading even with fairly large samples, especially when the number of lags or the number of equations is not small, we propose a general simulation-based technique that allows one to control completely the level of tests in parametric VAR models. In particular, we show that maximized Monte Carlo tests [Dufour (2002)] can provide provably exact tests for such models, whether they are stationary or integrated. Applications to order selection and causality testing are considered as special cases. The technique developed is applied to quarterly and monthly VAR models of the U.S. economy, comprising income, money, interest rates and prices, over the period 1965-1996.