Análise da sobre-reação e sub-reação nos ativos de primeira e segunda lina do mercado acionário brasileiro

The Behavioral Finance develop as it is perceived anomalies in these markets efficient. This fields of study can be grouped into three major groups: heuristic bias, tying the shape and inefficient markets. The present study focuses on issues concerning the heuristics of representativeness and anchoring. This study aimed to identify the then under-reaction and over-reaction, as well as the existence of symmetry in the active first and second line of the Brazilian stock market. For this, it will be use the Fuzzy Logic and the indicators that classify groups studied from the Discriminant Analysis. The highest present, indicator in the period studied, was the Liabilities / Equity, demonstrating the importance of the moment to discriminate the assets to be considered "winners" and "losers." Note that in the MLCX biases over-reaction is concentrated in the period of financial crisis, and in the remaining periods of statistically significant biases, are obtained by sub-reactions. The latter would be in times of moderate levels of uncertainty. In the Small Caps the behavioral responses in 2005 and 2007 occur in reverse to those observed in the Mid-Large Cap. Now in times of crisis would have a marked conservatism while near the end of trading on the Bovespa speaker, accompanied by an increase of negotiations, there is an overreaction by investors. The other heuristics in SMLL occurred at the end of the period studied, this being a under-reaction and the other a over-reaction and the second occurring in a period of financial-economic more positive than the first. As regards the under / over-reactivity in both types, there is detected a predominance of either, which probably be different in the context in MLCX without crisis. For the period in which such phenomena occur in a statistically significant to note that, in most cases, such phenomena occur during the periods for MLCX while in SMLL not only biases are less present as there is no concentration of these at any time . Given the above, it is believed that while detecting the presence of bias behavior at certain times, these do not tend to appear to a specific type or heuristics and while there were some indications of a seasonal pattern in Mid- Large Caps, the same behavior does not seem to be repeated in Small Caps. The tests would then suggest that momentary failures in the Efficient Market Hypothesis when tested in semistrong form as stated by Behavioral Finance. This result confirms the theory by stating that not only rationality, but also human irrationality, is limited because it would act rationally in many circumstances

Avaliação da corrosão em dutos por técnica gravimétrica e de resistência elétrica

With the increasing of demand for natural gas and the consequent growth of the pipeline networks, besides the importance of transport and transfer of oil products by pipeline, and when it comes to product quality and integrity of the pipeline there is an important role regarding to the monitoring internal corrosion of the pipe. This study aims to assess corrosion in three pipeline that operate with different products, using gravimetric techniques and electrical resistance. Chemical analysis of residues originated in the pipeline helps to identify the mechanism corrosive process. The internal monitoring of the corrosion in the pipelines was carried out between 2009 and 2010 using coupon weight loss and electrical resistance probe. Physico-chemical techniques of diffraction and fluorescence X-rays were used to characterize the products of corrosion of the pipelines. The corrosion rate by weight loss was analyzed for every pipeline, only those ones that has revealed corrosive attack were analyzed located corrosion rate. The corrosion potential was classified as low to pipeline gas and ranged from low to severe for oil pipelines and the pipeline derivatives. Corrosion products were identified as iron carbonate, iron oxide and iron sulfide

Uma abordagem híbrida para o problema de seleção de fornecedores em cadeia de suprimentos

This work presents a hybrid approach for the supplier selection problem in Supply Chain Management. We joined decision-making philosophy by researchers from business school and researchers from engineering in order to deal with the problem more extensively. We utilized traditional multicriteria decision-making methods, like AHP and TOPSIS, in order to evaluate alternatives according decision maker s preferences. The both techiniques were modeled by using definitions from the Fuzzy Sets Theory to deal with imprecise data. Additionally, we proposed a multiobjetive GRASP algorithm to perform an order allocation procedure between all pre-selected alternatives. These alternatives must to be pre-qualified on the basis of the AHP and TOPSIS methods before entering the LCR. Our allocation procedure has presented low CPU times for five pseudorandom instances, containing up to 1000 alternatives, as well as good values for all considered objectives. This way, we consider the proposed model as appropriate to solve the supplier selection problem in the SCM context. It can be used to help decision makers in reducing lead times, cost and risks in their supply chain. The proposed model can also improve firm s efficiency in relation to business strategies, according decision makers, even when a large number of alternatives must be considered, differently from classical models in purchasing literature

Uma arquitetura baseada em agentes para configuração dinâmica de aplicações inteligentes em ambiente foundation fieldbus

The industrial automation is directly linked to the development of information tecnology. Better hardware solutions, as well as improvements in software development methodologies make possible the rapid growth of the productive process control. In this thesis, we propose an architecture that will allow the joining of two technologies in hardware (industrial network) and software field (multiagent systems). The objective of this proposal is to join those technologies in a multiagent architecture to allow control strategies implementations in to field devices. With this, we intend develop an agents architecture to detect and solve problems which may occur in the industrial network environment. Our work ally machine learning with industrial context, become proposed multiagent architecture adaptable to unfamiliar or unexpected production environment. We used neural networks and presented an allocation strategies of these networks in industrial network field devices. With this we intend to improve decision support at plant level and allow operations human intervention independent

Desenvolvimento de um sistema de automação para uma planta de inertização de resíduos por plasma

The traditional processes for treatment of hazardous waste are questionable for it generates other wastes that adversely affect people s health. As an attempt to minimize these problems, it was developed a system for treatment of hazardous waste by thermal plasma, a more appropriate technology since it produces high temperatures, preventing the formation of toxic pollutants to human beings. The present work brings out a solution of automation for this plant. The system has local and remote monitoring resources to ensure the operators security as well as the process itself. A special attention was given to the control of the main reactor temperature of the plant as it is the place where the main processing occurs and because it presents a complex mathematical model. To this, it was employed cascaded controls based on Fuzzy logic. A process computer, with a particular man-machine interface (MMI), provides information and controls of the plant to the operator, including by Internet. A compact PLC module is in charge of the central element of management automation and plant control which receives information from sensors, and sends it to the MMI

Projeto e controle de um sistema de aquecimento no Laboratório de Avaliação de Medição em Petróleo

The Oil Measurement Evaluation Laboratory (LAMP), located in the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN), has as main goal to evaluate flow and BS&W meters, where the simulation of a bigger number of operation variable in field, guarantees a less uncertain evaluation. The objective of this work is to purpose a heating system design and implementation, which will control the temperature safely and efficiently in order to evaluate and measure it. Temperature is one of the variables which influence the flow and BS&W accurate measurement, directly affecting the fluid viscosity and density in the experiment. To project the heating system it is of great importance to take the laboratory requirements, conditions and current restrictions into consideration. Three alternatives were evaluated: heat exchanger, internal resistance and external resistance. After the analyses are made in order to choose the best alternative for the heating system in the laboratory, control strategies were determined for it, PID control methods in combination with fuzzy logic were used. Results showed a better performance with fuzzy logic than with classic PID

Classificação de padrões através de um comitê de máquinas aprimorado por aprendizagem por reforço

Reinforcement learning is a machine learning technique that, although finding a large number of applications, maybe is yet to reach its full potential. One of the inadequately tested possibilities is the use of reinforcement learning in combination with other methods for the solution of pattern classification problems. It is well documented in the literature the problems that support vector machine ensembles face in terms of generalization capacity. Algorithms such as Adaboost do not deal appropriately with the imbalances that arise in those situations. Several alternatives have been proposed, with varying degrees of success. This dissertation presents a new approach to building committees of support vector machines. The presented algorithm combines Adaboost algorithm with a layer of reinforcement learning to adjust committee parameters in order to avoid that imbalances on the committee components affect the generalization performance of the final hypothesis. Comparisons were made with ensembles using and not using the reinforcement learning layer, testing benchmark data sets widely known in area of pattern classification

Sistema inteligente para detecção de manchas de óleo na superfície marinha através de imagens de SAR

Oil spill on the sea, accidental or not, generates enormous negative consequences for the affected area. The damages are ambient and economic, mainly with the proximity of these spots of preservation areas and/or coastal zones. The development of automatic techniques for identification of oil spots on the sea surface, captured through Radar images, assist in a complete monitoring of the oceans and seas. However spots of different origins can be visualized in this type of imaging, which is a very difficult task. The system proposed in this work, based on techniques of digital image processing and artificial neural network, has the objective to identify the analyzed spot and to discern between oil and other generating phenomena of spot. Tests in functional blocks that compose the proposed system allow the implementation of different algorithms, as well as its detailed and prompt analysis. The algorithms of digital image processing (speckle filtering and gradient), as well as classifier algorithms (Multilayer Perceptron, Radial Basis Function, Support Vector Machine and Committe Machine) are presented and commented.The final performance of the system, with different kind of classifiers, is presented by ROC curve. The true positive rates are considered agreed with the literature about oil slick detection through SAR images presents

Algorítmo evolucionário para a distribuição de produtos de petróleo por redes de polidutos

The distribution of petroleum products through pipeline networks is an important problem that arises in production planning of refineries. It consists in determining what will be done in each production stage given a time horizon, concerning the distribution of products from source nodes to demand nodes, passing through intermediate nodes. Constraints concerning storage limits, delivering time, sources availability, limits on sending or receiving, among others, have to be satisfied. This problem can be viewed as a biobjective problem that aims at minimizing the time needed to for transporting the set of packages through the network and the successive transmission of different products in the same pipe is called fragmentation. This work are developed three algorithms that are applied to this problem: the first algorithm is discrete and is based on Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), with local search procedures and path-relinking proposed as velocity operators, the second and the third algorithms deal of two versions based on the Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II). The proposed algorithms are compared to other approaches for the same problem, in terms of the solution quality and computational time spent, so that the efficiency of the developed methods can be evaluated

Aplicação preliminar do método QRAM para avaliação de riscos para segurança ocupacional na construção civil

A segurança ocupacional é imprescindível na indústria da construção civil e a análise e avaliação de riscos para a segurança ocupacional (AARSO) é o primeiro e fundamental passo para alcançá-la, baseado na definição e implementação de programas de prevenção. A AARSO é um processo complexo, que implica a consideração e análise de muitos parâmetros quantitativos e/ou qualitativos que são difíceis de quantificar. As metodologias AARSO utilizadas na indústria da construção civil são baseadas em informação sujeita a incerteza (sendo tratada por técnicas probabilísticas e/ou estatísticas), difusa, imprecisa e/ou incompleta. Isso implica algumas limitações, como, por exemplo, obrigar os analistas a estimar parâmetros ou efetuar comparações com outros canteiros de obras (o que afasta do sistema real em estudo). O objetivo inicial deste estudo foi efetuar a pré-validação de um método AARSO, o QRAM, em duas cidades brasileiras, de médio e grande porte.

Paraconsistent Autonomous Mobile Robot Emmy III

This work presents some improvements regarding to the autonomous mobile robot Emmy based on Paraconsistent Annotated Evidential Logic ET. A discussion on navigation system is presented.

Sistema inteligente para la selección de brocas de perforación de pozos

The present work begins with a review of the literature on bit selection methods for oil well drilling. A proposal for the structure and organization of a drilling database and a knowledge base, is described. Previous studies formed the principal elements in the process of selection of drills for proposed drilling. The procedure was implemented as a computer system for the selection of tricone bits. A drilling bit database for three different Brazilian sedimentary basins was obtained for several wells drilled, and knowledge was collected from drilling engineers from different fields both electronically and also by means of interviews. It can be concluded that the selection process showed good results based on tests, which were carried out.

Identification of structural parameters for active vibration control

The study of algorithms for active vibration control in flexible structures became an area of enormous interest for some researchers due to the innumerable requirements for better performance in mechanical systems, as for instance, aircrafts and aerospace structures. Intelligent systems, constituted for a base structure with sensors and actuators connected, are capable to guarantee the demanded conditions, through the application of diverse types of controllers. For the project of active controllers it is necessary, in general, to know a mathematical model that enable the representation in the space of states, preferential in modal coordinates to permit the truncation of the system and reduction in the order of the controllers. For practical applications of engineering, some mathematical models based in discrete-time systems cannot represent the physical problem, therefore, techniques of identification of system parameters must be used. The techniques of identification of parameters determine the unknown values through the manipulation of the input (disturbance) and output (response) signals of the system. Recently, some methods have been proposed to solve identification problems although, none of them can be considered as being universally appropriate to all the situations. This paper is addressed to an application of linear quadratic regulator controller in a structure where the damping, stiffness and mass matrices were identified through Chebyshev's polynomial functions.