Iowa Leading Indicators Index Report, October 2007

The Iowa Leading Indicators Index (ILII) is a tool for monitoring the future direction of the Iowa economy and State revenues. Its eight components include an agricultural futures price index, an Iowa stock market index, average weekly manufacturing hours in Iowa, initial unemployment claims in Iowa, an Iowa new orders index, diesel fuel consumption in Iowa, residential building permits in Iowa, and the national yield spread.

Iowa Leading Indicators Index Report, November 2007

The Iowa Leading Indicators Index (ILII) is a tool for monitoring the future direction of the Iowa economy and State revenues. Its eight components include an agricultural futures price index, an Iowa stock market index, average weekly manufacturing hours in Iowa, initial unemployment claims in Iowa, an Iowa new orders index, diesel fuel consumption in Iowa, residential building permits in Iowa, and the national yield spread.

Iowa Leading Indicators Index Report, December 2007

The Iowa Leading Indicators Index (ILII) is a tool for monitoring the future direction of the Iowa economy and State revenues. Its eight components include an agricultural futures price index, an Iowa stock market index, average weekly manufacturing hours in Iowa, initial unemployment claims in Iowa, an Iowa new orders index, diesel fuel consumption in Iowa, residential building permits in Iowa, and the national yield spread.

Iowa Leading Indicators Index Report, January 2008

The Iowa Leading Indicators Index (ILII) is a tool for monitoring the future direction of the Iowa economy and State revenues. Its eight components include an agricultural futures price index, an Iowa stock market index, average weekly manufacturing hours in Iowa, initial unemployment claims in Iowa, an Iowa new orders index, diesel fuel consumption in Iowa, residential building permits in Iowa, and the national yield spread.

Iowa Leading Indicators Index Report, February 2008

The Iowa Leading Indicators Index (ILII) is a tool for monitoring the future direction of the Iowa economy and State revenues. Its eight components include an agricultural futures price index, an Iowa stock market index, average weekly manufacturing hours in Iowa, initial unemployment claims in Iowa, an Iowa new orders index, diesel fuel consumption in Iowa, residential building permits in Iowa, and the national yield spread.

Iowa Leading Indicators Index Report, March 2008

The Iowa Leading Indicators Index (ILII) is a tool for monitoring the future direction of the Iowa economy and State revenues. Its eight components include an agricultural futures price index, an Iowa stock market index, average weekly manufacturing hours in Iowa, initial unemployment claims in Iowa, an Iowa new orders index, diesel fuel consumption in Iowa, residential building permits in Iowa, and the national yield spread.

Iowa Leading Indicators Index Report, April 2008

The Iowa Leading Indicators Index (ILII) is a tool for monitoring the future direction of the Iowa economy and State revenues. Its eight components include an agricultural futures price index, an Iowa stock market index, average weekly manufacturing hours in Iowa, initial unemployment claims in Iowa, an Iowa new orders index, diesel fuel consumption in Iowa, residential building permits in Iowa, and the national yield spread.

Measurement and explanation of socioeconomic inequality in health with longitudinal data

This paper presents a method for the measurement of changes in health inequality and income-related health inequality over time in a population.For pure health inequality (as measured by the Gini coefficient) andincome-related health inequality (as measured by the concentration index),we show how measures derived from longitudinal data can be related tocross section Gini and concentration indices that have been typicallyreported in the literature to date, along with measures of health mobilityinspired by the literature on income mobility. We also show how thesemeasures of mobility can be usefully decomposed into the contributions ofdifferent covariates. We apply these methods to investigate the degree ofincome-related mobility in the GHQ measure of psychological well-being inthe first nine waves of the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS). Thisreveals that dynamics increase the absolute value of the concentrationindex of GHQ on income by 10%.

A measure of rationality and welfare

There is evidence showing that individual behavior often deviates fromthe classical principle of maximization. This evidence raises at least two importantquestions: (i) how severe the deviations are and (ii) which method is the best forextracting relevant information from choice behavior for the purposes of welfare analysis.In this paper we address these two questions by identifying from a foundationalanalysis a new measure of the rationality of individuals that enables the analysis ofindividual welfare in potentially inconsistent subjects, all based on standard revealedpreference data. We call such measure minimal index.

The challenge of representative design in psychology and economics

The demands of representative design, as formulated by Egon Brunswik (1956), set a high methodological standard. Both experimental participants and the situations with which they are faced should be representative of the populations to which researchers claim to generalize results. Failure to observe the latter has led to notable experimental failures in psychology from which economics could learn. It also raises questions about the meaning of testing economic theories in abstract environments. Logically, abstract tests can only be generalized to abstract realities and these may or may not have anything to do with the empirical realities experienced by economic actors.

Iowa Leading Indicators Index May 2008

The Iowa Leading Indicators Index (ILII) is a tool for monitoring the future direction of the Iowa economy and State revenues. Its eight components include an agricultural futures price index, an Iowa stock market index, average weekly manufacturing hours in Iowa, initial unemployment claims in Iowa, an Iowa new orders index, diesel fuel consumption in Iowa, residential building permits in Iowa, and the national yield spread.

Iowa Leading Indicators Index June 2008

The Iowa Leading Indicators Index (ILII) is a tool for monitoring the future direction of the Iowa economy and State revenues. Its eight components include an agricultural futures price index, an Iowa stock market index, average weekly manufacturing hours in Iowa, initial unemployment claims in Iowa, an Iowa new orders index, diesel fuel consumption in Iowa, residential building permits in Iowa, and the national yield spread.

When in peril, retrench: Testing the portfolio channel of contagion

One plausible mechanism through which financial market shocks may propagate across countriesis through the impact that past gains and losses may have on investors risk aversion and behavior. This paper presents a stylized model illustrating how heterogeneous changes in investors risk aversion affect portfolio allocation decisions and stock prices. Our empirical findings suggest that when funds returns are below average, they adjust their holdings toward the average (or benchmark) portfolio. In so doing, funds tend to sell the assets of countries in which they were overweight , increasing their exposure to countries in which they were underweight. Based on this insight, the paper constructs an index of financial interdependence which reflects the extent to which countries share overexposed funds. The index helps in explain the pattern of stock market comovement across countries. Moreover, a comparison of this interdependence measure to indices of trade or commercial bank linkages indicates that our index can improve predictions about which countries are more likely to be affected by contagion from crisis centers.

The economics of organized crime and optimal law enforcement

This paper extends the optimal law enforcement literature to organized crime.We model the criminal organization as a vertical structure where the principal extracts some rents from the agents through extortion. Depending on the principal's information set, threats may or may not be credible. As long as threats are credible, the principal is able to fully extract rents.In that case, the results obtained by applying standard theory of optimal law enforcement are robust: we argue for a tougher policy. However, when threats are not credible, the principal is not able to fully extract rents and there is violence. Moreover, we show that it is not necessarily true that a tougher law enforcement policy should be chosen when in presence of organized crime.

Restless bandits, linear programming relaxations and a primal-dual index heuristic

We develop a mathematical programming approach for the classicalPSPACE - hard restless bandit problem in stochastic optimization.We introduce a hierarchy of n (where n is the number of bandits)increasingly stronger linear programming relaxations, the lastof which is exact and corresponds to the (exponential size)formulation of the problem as a Markov decision chain, while theother relaxations provide bounds and are efficiently computed. Wealso propose a priority-index heuristic scheduling policy fromthe solution to the first-order relaxation, where the indices aredefined in terms of optimal dual variables. In this way wepropose a policy and a suboptimality guarantee. We report resultsof computational experiments that suggest that the proposedheuristic policy is nearly optimal. Moreover, the second-orderrelaxation is found to provide strong bounds on the optimalvalue.