A General and Intuitive Envelope Theorem

We present an envelope theorem for establishing first-order conditions in decision problems involving continuous and discrete choices. Our theorem accommodates general dynamic programming problems, even with unbounded marginal utilities. And, unlike classical envelope theorems that focus only on differentiating value functions, we accommodate other endogenous functions such as default probabilities and interest rates. Our main technical ingredient is how we establish the differentiability of a function at a point: we sandwich the function between two differentiable functions from above and below. Our theory is widely applicable. In unsecured credit models, neither interest rates nor continuation values are globally differentiable. Nevertheless, we establish an Euler equation involving marginal prices and values. In adjustment cost models, we show that first-order conditions apply universally, even if optimal policies are not (S,s). Finally, we incorporate indivisible choices into a classic dynamic insurance analysis.

The role of fixed delays in neuronal rate models

Fixed delays in neuronal interactions arise through synaptic and dendritic processing. Previous work has shown that such delays, which play an important role in shaping the dynamics of networks of large numbers of spiking neurons with continuous synaptic kinetics, can be taken into account with a rate model through the addition of an explicit, fixed delay. Here we extend this work to account for arbitrary symmetric patterns of synaptic connectivity and generic nonlinear transfer functions. Specifically, we conduct a weakly nonlinear analysis of the dynamical states arising via primary instabilities of the stationary uniform state. In this way we determine analytically how the nature and stability of these states depend on the choice of transfer function and connectivity. While this dependence is, in general, nontrivial, we make use of the smallness of the ratio in the delay in neuronal interactions to the effective time constant of integration to arrive at two general observations of physiological relevance. These are: 1 - fast oscillations are always supercritical for realistic transfer functions. 2 - Traveling waves are preferred over standing waves given plausible patterns of local connectivity.

A general model to predict individual exposure to solar UV by using ambient irradiance data

Excessive exposure to solar ultraviolet (UV) is the main cause of skin cancer. Specific prevention should be further developed to target overexposed or highly vulnerable populations. A better characterisation of anatomical UV exposure patterns is however needed for specific prevention. To develop a regression model for predicting the UV exposure ratio (ER, ratio between the anatomical dose and the corresponding ground level dose) for each body site without requiring individual measurements. A 3D numeric model (SimUVEx) was used to compute ER for various body sites and postures. A multiple fractional polynomial regression analysis was performed to identify predictors of ER. The regression model used simulation data and its performance was tested on an independent data set. Two input variables were sufficient to explain ER: the cosine of the maximal daily solar zenith angle and the fraction of the sky visible from the body site. The regression model was in good agreement with the simulated data ER (R(2)=0.988). Relative errors up to +20% and -10% were found in daily doses predictions, whereas an average relative error of only 2.4% (-0.03% to 5.4%) was found in yearly dose predictions. The regression model predicts accurately ER and UV doses on the basis of readily available data such as global UV erythemal irradiance measured at ground surface stations or inferred from satellite information. It renders the development of exposure data on a wide temporal and geographical scale possible and opens broad perspectives for epidemiological studies and skin cancer prevention.

A well-posedness theory in measures for some kinetic models of collective motion

We present existence, uniqueness and continuous dependence results for some kinetic equations motivated by models for the collective behavior of large groups of individuals. Models of this kind have been recently proposed to study the behavior of large groups of animals, such as flocks of birds, swarms, or schools of fish. Our aim is to give a well-posedness theory for general models which possibly include a variety of effects: an interaction through a potential, such as a short-range repulsion and long-range attraction; a velocity-averaging effect where individuals try to adapt their own velocity to that of other individuals in their surroundings; and self-propulsion effects, which take into account effects on one individual that are independent of the others. We develop our theory in a space of measures, using mass transportation distances. As consequences of our theory we show also the convergence of particle systems to their corresponding kinetic equations, and the local-in-time convergence to the hydrodynamic limit for one of the models.

Estimation of dynamic latent variable models using simulated nonparametric moments

Abstract. Given a model that can be simulated, conditional moments at a trial parameter value can be calculated with high accuracy by applying kernel smoothing methods to a long simulation. With such conditional moments in hand, standard method of moments techniques can be used to estimate the parameter. Because conditional moments are calculated using kernel smoothing rather than simple averaging, it is not necessary that the model be simulable subject to the conditioning information that is used to define the moment conditions. For this reason, the proposed estimator is applicable to general dynamic latent variable models. It is shown that as the number of simulations diverges, the estimator is consistent and a higher-order expansion reveals the stochastic difference between the infeasible GMM estimator based on the same moment conditions and the simulated version. In particular, we show how to adjust standard errors to account for the simulations. Monte Carlo results show how the estimator may be applied to a range of dynamic latent variable (DLV) models, and that it performs well in comparison to several other estimators that have been proposed for DLV models.

Influence of CRTC1 Polymorphisms on Body Mass Index and Fat Mass in Psychiatric Patients and the General Adult Population.

IMPORTANCE There is a high prevalence of obesity in psychiatric patients, possibly leading to metabolic complications and reducing life expectancy. The CREB-regulated transcription coactivator 1 (CRTC1) gene is involved in energy balance and obesity in animal models, but its role in human obesity is unknown. OBJECTIVE To determine whether polymorphisms within the CRTC1 gene are associated with adiposity markers in psychiatric patients and the general population. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Retrospective and prospective data analysis and population-based samples at Lausanne and Geneva university hospitals in Switzerland and a private clinic in Lausanne, Switzerland. The effect of 3 CRTC1 polymorphisms on body mass index (BMI) and/or fat mass was investigated in a discovery cohort of psychiatric outpatients taking weight gain-inducing psychotropic drugs (sample 1, n = 152). The CRTC1 variant that was significantly associated with BMI and survived Bonferroni corrections for multiple comparison was then replicated in 2 independent psychiatric samples (sample 2, n = 174 and sample 3, n = 118) and 2 white population-based samples (sample 4, n = 5338 and sample 5, n = 123 865). INTERVENTION Noninterventional studies. MAIN OUTCOME AND MEASURE Difference in BMI and/or fat mass between CRTC1 genotype groups. RESULTS Among the CRTC1 variants tested in the first psychiatric sample, only rs3746266A>G was associated with BMI (Padjusted = .003). In the 3 psychiatric samples, carriers of the rs3746266 G allele had a lower BMI than noncarriers (AA genotype) (sample 1, P = .001; sample 2, P = .05; and sample 3, P = .0003). In the combined analysis, excluding patients taking other weight gain-inducing drugs, G allele carriers (n = 98) had a 1.81-kg/m2 lower BMI than noncarriers (n = 226; P < .0001). The strongest association was observed in women younger than 45 years, with a 3.87-kg/m2 lower BMI in G allele carriers (n = 25) compared with noncarriers (n = 48; P < .0001), explaining 9% of BMI variance. In the population-based samples, the T allele of rs6510997C>T (a proxy of the rs3746266 G allele; r2 = 0.7) was associated with lower BMI (sample 5, n = 123 865; P = .01) and fat mass (sample 4, n = 5338; P = .03). The strongest association with fat mass was observed in premenopausal women (n = 1192; P = .02). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE These findings suggest that CRTC1 contributes to the genetics of human obesity in psychiatric patients and the general population. Identification of high-risk subjects could contribute to a better individualization of the pharmacological treatment in psychiatry.

Application of a roughness-length representation to parameterize energy loss in 3-D numerical simulations of large rivers

Recent technological advances in remote sensing have enabled investigation of the morphodynamics and hydrodynamics of large rivers. However, measuring topography and flow in these very large rivers is time consuming and thus often constrains the spatial resolution and reach-length scales that can be monitored. Similar constraints exist for computational fluid dynamics (CFD) studies of large rivers, requiring maximization of mesh-or grid-cell dimensions and implying a reduction in the representation of bedform-roughness elements that are of the order of a model grid cell or less, even if they are represented in available topographic data. These ``subgrid'' elements must be parameterized, and this paper applies and considers the impact of roughness-length treatments that include the effect of bed roughness due to ``unmeasured'' topography. CFD predictions were found to be sensitive to the roughness-length specification. Model optimization was based on acoustic Doppler current profiler measurements and estimates of the water surface slope for a variety of roughness lengths. This proved difficult as the metrics used to assess optimal model performance diverged due to the effects of large bedforms that are not well parameterized in roughness-length treatments. However, the general spatial flow patterns are effectively predicted by the model. Changes in roughness length were shown to have a major impact upon flow routing at the channel scale. The results also indicate an absence of secondary flow circulation cells in the reached studied, and suggest simpler two-dimensional models may have great utility in the investigation of flow within large rivers. Citation: Sandbach, S. D. et al. (2012), Application of a roughness-length representation to parameterize energy loss in 3-D numerical simulations of large rivers, Water Resour. Res., 48, W12501, doi: 10.1029/2011WR011284.

Multi-stage oligopoly models with nested logit demand structures: A simplifying approach

Solving multi-stage oligopoly models by backward induction can easily become a com- plex task when rms are multi-product and demands are derived from a nested logit frame- work. This paper shows that under the assumption that within-segment rm shares are equal across segments, the analytical expression for equilibrium pro ts can be substantially simpli ed. The size of the error arising when this condition does not hold perfectly is also computed. Through numerical examples, it is shown that the error is rather small in general. Therefore, using this assumption allows to gain analytical tractability in a class of models that has been used to approach relevant policy questions, such as for example rm entry in an industry or the relation between competition and location. The simplifying approach proposed in this paper is aimed at helping improving these type of models for reaching more accurate recommendations.

Quantificació de l'error comès pels models de níxol ecològic al predir la distribució d'especies generalistes

Report for the scientific sojourn carried out at the University of California at Berkeley, from September to December 2007. Environmental niche modelling (ENM) techniques are powerful tools to predict species potential distributions. In the last ten years, a plethora of novel methodological approaches and modelling techniques have been developed. During three months, I stayed at the University of California, Berkeley, working under the supervision of Dr. David R. Vieites. The aim of our work was to quantify the error committed by these techniques, but also to test how an increase in the sample size affects the resultant predictions. Using MaxEnt software we generated distribution predictive maps, from different sample sizes, of the Eurasian quail (Coturnix coturnix) in the Iberian Peninsula. The quail is a generalist species from a climatic point of view, but an habitat specialist. The resultant distribution maps were compared with the real distribution of the species. This distribution was obtained from recent bird atlases from Spain and Portugal. Results show that ENM techniques can have important errors when predicting the species distribution of generalist species. Moreover, an increase of sample size is not necessary related with a better performance of the models. We conclude that a deep knowledge of the species’ biology and the variables affecting their distribution is crucial for an optimal modelling. The lack of this knowledge can induce to wrong conclusions.

Evaluation of tumor vascularisation in two rat sarcoma models for studying isolated lung perfusion : Injection route determines the origin of tumour vessels

Résumé Introduction: La perfusion isolée cytostatique du poumon est une technique attractive qui permet l'administration des doses élevées d'un agent cytostatique tout en épargnant dans la mesure du possible la circulation systémique. Cependant, la perfusion de l'artère pulmonaire risque d'épargner le territoire pulmonaire vascularisé par l'intermédiaire des artères bronchiques, ce qui pourrait diminuer l'efficacité de ce traitement au cas où la lésion ciblée est vascularisée par les artères bronchiques. Ce travail est destiné au développement d'un modèle tumoral au niveau des poumons de rongeur (rat) porteur d'un sarcome pulmonaire afin de déterminer si la voie d'injection des cellules tumorales (intraveineuse, versus intratumorale) influencera la vascularisation des tumeurs (provenant du système artères pulmonaires ou artères bronchiques). Méthod: Des tumeurs de sarcomes pulmonaires ont été générées par injection d'une suspension cellulaire de sarcome, soit par injection intraveineuse, soit directement dans le parenchyme pulmonaire par thoracotomie. Ensuite, une perfusion isolée du poumon porteur de la tumeur à l'aide de l'encre a été effectuée, soit par l'artère pulmonaire, soit par le système des artères bronchiques. La distribution de l'encre dans les vaisseaux tumoraux ainsi que dans les vaisseaux non tumoraux du poumon adjacent a été investiguée à l'aide d'une analyse histologique des poumons perfusés. Résultat: L'administration intraveineuse et intratumorale de la suspension de cellules tumorales résulte en des tumeurs similaires sur le plan histologique. Néanmoins, l'injection intra-parenchymateuse démontre des tumeurs plus homogènes et avec un développement plus prédictible, était associée à une survie plus longue qu'après injection intraveineuse. Les analyses histologiques après perfusion isolée à l'aide de l'encre démontre que les tumeurs résultant de l'injection intraveineuse ont développé une vascularisation se basant sur le système d'artères pulmonaires tandis que les tumeurs émergeant après injection intraparenchymateuse ont développé une vascularisation provenant du système des artères bronchiques. Conclusion: Ce travail démontre pour la première fois l'importance du mode de génération de tumeurs pulmonaires en ce qui concerne leur future vascularisation, ce qui pourrait avoir un impact sur leur traitement par perfusion isolée du poumon. Abstract Isolated cytostatic lung perfusion (ILP) is an attractive technique allowing delivery of a high-dose of cytostatic agents to the lungs while limiting systemic toxicity. In developing a rat model of ILP, we have analysed the effect of the route of tumour cell injection on the source of tumour vessels. Pulmonary sarcomas were estab¬lished by injecting a sarcoma cell suspension either by the intravenous (i.v.) route or directly into the lung paren¬chyma. Ink perfusion through either pulmonary artery (PA) or bronchial arteries (BA) was performed and the characteristics of the tumour deposits defined. i.v. and direct injection methods induced pulmonary sarcoma nodules, with similar histological features. The intraparenchymal injection of tumour cells resulted in more reli¬able and reproducible tumour growth and was associat¬ed with a longer survival of the animals. i.v. injected tumours developed a PA-derived vascular tree whereas directly injected tumours developed a BA-derived vasculature.

General and Abdominal Adiposity and Risk of Death in Europe

Previous studies have relied predominantly on the body-mass index (BMI, the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters) to assess the association of adiposity with the risk of death, but few have examined whether the distribution of body fat contributes to the prediction of death. This study examined the association of BMI, waist circumference, and waist-to-hip ratio with the risk of death among 359,387 participants from nine countries in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). A Cox regression analysis was used, with age as the time variable, and stratified the models according to study center and age at recruitment, with further adjustment for educational level, smoking status, alcohol consumption, physical activity, and height.

Binary classification of dyslipidemia from the waist-to-hip ratio and body mass index: a comparison of linear, logistic, and CART models.

BACKGROUND: We sought to improve upon previously published statistical modeling strategies for binary classification of dyslipidemia for general population screening purposes based on the waist-to-hip circumference ratio and body mass index anthropometric measurements. METHODS: Study subjects were participants in WHO-MONICA population-based surveys conducted in two Swiss regions. Outcome variables were based on the total serum cholesterol to high density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio. The other potential predictor variables were gender, age, current cigarette smoking, and hypertension. The models investigated were: (i) linear regression; (ii) logistic classification; (iii) regression trees; (iv) classification trees (iii and iv are collectively known as "CART"). Binary classification performance of the region-specific models was externally validated by classifying the subjects from the other region. RESULTS: Waist-to-hip circumference ratio and body mass index remained modest predictors of dyslipidemia. Correct classification rates for all models were 60-80%, with marked gender differences. Gender-specific models provided only small gains in classification. The external validations provided assurance about the stability of the models. CONCLUSIONS: There were no striking differences between either the algebraic (i, ii) vs. non-algebraic (iii, iv), or the regression (i, iii) vs. classification (ii, iv) modeling approaches. Anticipated advantages of the CART vs. simple additive linear and logistic models were less than expected in this particular application with a relatively small set of predictor variables. CART models may be more useful when considering main effects and interactions between larger sets of predictor variables.

Circulation of Campylobacter spp. in rhesus monkeys (Macaca mulatta) held in captivity: a longitudinal study

Campylobacteriosis is an extremely important zoonosis, circulating freely in the environment. In nonhuman primates kept in open facilities and bred for experimental purposes, the presence of Campylobacter spp. could cause severe damage to the production and interfere with the results of scientific research. In this paper, we assessed the circulation of Campylobacter spp. in a colony of clinically healthy rhesus monkeys (Macaca mulatta) destined to research. The analysis was carried out during seven non-consecutive years. Data showed that despite several changes made in animal management along the studied years in order to control this zoonosis, reduction of bacterial charge did not occur. Significant differences among the age groups and sex were observed. Infants showed higher susceptibility than adult animals. In general males were more infected than females. Modifications adopted in the handling techniques need to be reviewed with the intent of improving the production, reducing bacterial infection of the stock and avoiding undesirable cross reactions in the research carried out with these animals. Therefore, this paper alerts professionals that work directly with captive rhesus monkeys about the risks of Campylobacter spp. infection and possible interference on the experimental procedures.

M-Library in an m-University : changing Models in the Open University of Catalonia

The general perspective of M-technologies and M-Services at the Spanish universities is not still in a very high level when we are ending the first decade of the 21st century. Some Universities and some of their libraries are starting to try out with M-technologies, but are still far from a model of massive exploitation, less than in some other countries. A deep study is needed to know the main reasons, study that we will not do in this paper. This general perspective does not mean that there are no significant initiatives which start to trust in M-technologies from Universities and their libraries. Models based in M-technologies make more sense than ever in open universities and in open libraries. That's the reason why the UOC's Library began in late 90s its first experiences in the M-Technologies and M-Libraries developments. In 1999 the appropriate technology offered the opportunity to carry out the first pilot test with SMS, and then applying the WAP technology. At those moments we managed to link-up mobile phones to the OPAC through a WAP system that allowed searching the catalogue by categories and finding the final location of a document, offering also the address of the library in which the user could loan it. Since then, UOC (and its library) directs its efforts towards adapting the offer of services to all sorts of M-devices used by end users. Left the WAP technology, nowadays the library is experimenting with some new devices like e-books, and some new services to get more feedback through the OPAC and metalibrary search products. We propose the case of Open University of Catalonia, in two levels: M-services applied in the library and M-technologies applied in some other university services and resources.

In vitro and in vivo experimental models for drug screening and development for Chagas disease

Chagas disease, a neglected illness, affects nearly 12-14 million people in endemic areas of Latin America. Although the occurrence of acute cases sharply has declined due to Southern Cone Initiative efforts to control vector transmission, there still remain serious challenges, including the maintenance of sustainable public policies for Chagas disease control and the urgent need for better drugs to treat chagasic patients. Since the introduction of benznidazole and nifurtimox approximately 40 years ago, many natural and synthetic compounds have been assayed against Trypanosoma cruzi, yet only a few compounds have advanced to clinical trials. This reflects, at least in part, the lack of consensus regarding appropriate in vitro and in vivo screening protocols as well as the lack of biomarkers for treating parasitaemia. The development of more effective drugs requires (i) the identification and validation of parasite targets, (ii) compounds to be screened against the targets or the whole parasite and (iii) a panel of minimum standardised procedures to advance leading compounds to clinical trials. This third aim was the topic of the workshop entitled Experimental Models in Drug Screening and Development for Chagas Disease, held in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on the 25th and 26th of November 2008 by the Fiocruz Program for Research and Technological Development on Chagas Disease and Drugs for Neglected Diseases Initiative. During the meeting, the minimum steps, requirements and decision gates for the determination of the efficacy of novel drugs for T. cruzi control were evaluated by interdisciplinary experts and an in vitro and in vivo flowchart was designed to serve as a general and standardised protocol for screening potential drugs for the treatment of Chagas disease.