A house price index defined in the potential outcomes framework

Current methods for constructing house price indices are based on comparisons of sale prices of residential properties sold two or more times and on regression of the sale prices on the attributes of the properties and of their locations. The two methods have well recognised deficiencies, selection bias and model assumptions, respectively. We introduce a new method based on propensity score matching. The average house prices for two periods are compared by selecting pairs of properties, one sold in each period, that are as similar on a set of available attributes (covariates) as is feasible to arrange. The uncertainty associated with such matching is addressed by multiple imputation, framing the problem as involving missing values. The method is applied to aregister of transactions ofresidential properties in New Zealand and compared with the established alternatives.

Local volatility changes in the black-scholes model

In this paper we address a problem arising in risk management; namely the study of price variations of different contingent claims in the Black-Scholes model due to anticipating future events. The method we propose to use is an extension of the classical Vega index, i.e. the price derivative with respect to the constant volatility, in thesense that we perturb the volatility in different directions. Thisdirectional derivative, which we denote the local Vega index, will serve as the main object in the paper and one of the purposes is to relate it to the classical Vega index. We show that for all contingent claims studied in this paper the local Vega index can be expressed as a weighted average of the perturbation in volatility. In the particular case where the interest rate and the volatility are constant and the perturbation is deterministic, the local Vega index is an average of this perturbation multiplied by the classical Vega index. We also study the well-known goal problem of maximizing the probability of a perfect hedge and show that the speed of convergence is in fact dependent of the local Vega index.

Location models in the public sector

The past four decades have witnessed an explosive growth in the field of networkbased facilitylocation modeling. This is not at all surprising since location policy is one of the mostprofitable areas of applied systems analysis in regional science and ample theoretical andapplied challenges are offered. Location-allocation models seek the location of facilitiesand/or services (e.g., schools, hospitals, and warehouses) so as to optimize one or severalobjectives generally related to the efficiency of the system or to the allocation of resources.This paper concerns the location of facilities or services in discrete space or networks, thatare related to the public sector, such as emergency services (ambulances, fire stations, andpolice units), school systems and postal facilities. The paper is structured as follows: first,we will focus on public facility location models that use some type of coverage criterion,with special emphasis in emergency services. The second section will examine models based onthe P-Median problem and some of the issues faced by planners when implementing thisformulation in real world locational decisions. Finally, the last section will examine newtrends in public sector facility location modeling.

Mortality of Plutella xylostella (Lepidoptera, Plutellidae) by parasitoids in the Province of Santa Fe, Argentina

Mortality of Plutella xylostella (Lepidoptera, Plutellidae) by parasitoids in the Province of Santa Fe, Argentina. Plutella xylostella (Linnaeus, 1758) (Lepidoptera, Plutellidae) larvae cause severe economic damage on cabbage, Brassica oleracea L. variety capitata (Brassicaceae), in the horticultural fields in the Province of Santa Fe, Argentina. Overuse of broad spectrum insecticides affects the action of natural enemies of this insect on cabbage. The objectives of this work were to identify the parasitoids of P. xylostella and to determine their influence on larva and pupa mortality. Weekly collections of larvae and pupae were randomly conducted in cabbage crops during spring 2006 and 2007. The immature forms collected were classified according to their developmental stage: L1 and L2 (Ls = small larvae), L3 (Lm = medium larvae), L4 (Ll = large larvae), pre-pupae and pupae (P). Each individual was observed daily in the laboratory until the adult pest or parasitoid emergence. We identified parasitoids, the number of instar and the percentage of mortality of P. xylostella for each species of parasitoid. Parasitoids recorded were: Diadegma insulare (Cresson, 1875) (Hymenoptera, Ichneumonidae), Oomyzus sokolowskii (Kurdjumov, 1912) (Hymenoptera, Eulophidae), Cotesia plutellae (Kurdjumov, 1912) (Hymenoptera, Braconidae) and an unidentified species of Chalcididae (Hymenoptera). Besides parasitoids, an unidentified entomopathogenic fungus was also recorded in 2006 and 2007. In 2006, the most successful parasitoids were D. insulare and O. sokolowskii, while in 2007 only D. insulare exerted a satisfactory control and it attacked the early instars of the pest.

Temporal variation in the composition of ant assemblages (Hymenoptera, Formicidae) on trees in the Pantanal floodplain, Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil

Temporal variation in the composition of ant assemblages (Hymenoptera, Formicidae) on trees in the Pantanal floodplain, Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. In this paper we investigate how seasonal flooding influences the composition of assemblages of ants foraging on trees in the Pantanal of Mato Grosso do Sul. During the flood in the Pantanal, a large area is covered by floods that are the main forces that regulate the pattern of diversity in these areas. However, the effects of such natural disturbances in the ant communities are poorly known. In this sense, the objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of temporal variation in assemblages of ants foraging on trees in the Pantanal of Miranda. Samples were collected during a year in two adjacent areas, one who suffered flooding during the wet period and another that did not suffer flooding throughout the year. In 10 sites for each evaluated habitat, five pitfall traps were installed at random in trees 25 m apart from each other. In the habitat with flooding, the highest richness was observed during the flooding period, while there was no significant change in richness in the area that does not suffer flooding. The diversity of species between the two evaluated habitats varied significantly during the two seasons. Most ants sampled belong to species that forage and nest in soil. This suggests that during the flood in flooded habitats, ants that did not migrate to higher areas without flooding adopt the strategy to search for resources in the tree canopy.

The Effects of Headcut and Knickpoint Propagation on Bridges in Iowa, October 2008

Headcuts (known also as primary knickpoints) and knickpoints (known also as secondary knickpoints) have been found to contribute to the accelerated riverbed degradation problem in the midwestern United States. Step-changes that occur at the head of channel networks are referred to as headcuts, and those that occur within the confines of channel banks are referred to as knickpoints. The formation of headcuts and knickpoints and their upstream migration have been linked to the over-steepening of stream reaches when the flow plunges to the bed and creates a plunge pool. Secondary flow currents and seepage are believed to be some other parameters contributing to the formation and evolution of headcuts and knickpoints. Ongoing research suggests that headcuts and knickpoints, where they form and migrate, may account for 60% (or more) of the bed erosion in the streams. Based on preliminary observations, there is a strong indication that headcuts and knickpoints can also have a greater influence on flow thalweg alignment (line of deepest flow) for small rivers. A shift in thalweg toward a riverbank or embankment is usually a prime factor contributing to riverbank erosion and scour.

White grubs (Coleoptera, Melolonthidae) in the "Planalto Region", Rio Grande do Sul state, Brazil: Key for identification, species richness and distribution

White grubs (Coleoptera, Melolonthidae) in the "Planalto Region", Rio Grande do Sul state, Brazil: Key for identification, species richness and distribution. The objective of this study was to survey the occurrence and geographic distribution of white grub species (Coleoptera, Melolonthidae) in cultivated and non-cultivated fields of the "Planalto Region", Rio Grande do Sul state, Brazil and develop a key at genus-level. Twenty-eight species from 15 genera and three subfamilies were recorded: Dynastinae, Melolonthinae and Rutelinae. The species or genera recorded for the first time in the state are: Cyclocephala metrica, C. tucumana, Isonychus albicinctus, Liogenys bidenticeps, L. fusca, L. obesa and L. sinuaticeps, Paranomala violacea, as well as unidentified species of Amononyx, Dicrania, Leucothyreus, Macrodactylus, Plectris and Rhizogeniates. Among the species recorded, 23 were associated with winter crops. Only Cyclocephala metrica, Dyscinetus rugifrons, two species of Leucothyreus and one species of the tribe Sericini were not present in cultivated crop fields. Cyclocephala flavipennis and Diloboderus abderus occurred in most of the municipalities sampled, often associated with Plectris sp., C. modesta and C. putrida. The highest richness of melolonthids was concentrated in the northeast of the Planalto region.

The policy relevance of wear emissions from road transport, now and in the future : an international workshop report and consensus statement

Road transport emissions are a major contributor to ambient particulate matter concentrations and have been associated with adverse health effects. Therefore, these emissions are targeted through increasingly stringent European emission standards. These policies succeed in reducing exhaust emissions, but do not address "nonexhaust" emissions from brake wear, tire wear, road wear, and suspension in air of road dust. Is this a problem? To what extent do nonexhaust emissions contribute to ambient concentrations of PM10 or PM2.5? In the near future, wear emissions may dominate the remaining traffic-related PM10 emissions in Europe, mostly due to the steep decrease in PM exhaust emissions. This underlines the need to determine the relevance of the wear emissions as a contribution to the existing ambient PM concentrations, and the need to assess the health risks related to wear particles, which has not yet received much attention. During a workshop in 2011, available knowledge was reported and evaluated so as to draw conclusions on the relevance of traffic-related wear emissions for air quality policy development. On the basis of available evidence, which is briefly presented in this paper, it was concluded that nonexhaust emissions and in particular suspension in air of road dust are major contributors to exceedances at street locations of the PM10 air quality standards in various European cities. Furthermore, wear-related PM emissions that contain high concentrations of metals may (despite their limited contribution to the mass of nonexhaust emissions) cause significant health risks for the population, especially those living near intensely trafficked locations. To quantify the existing health risks, targeted research is required on wear emissions, their dispersion in urban areas, population exposure, and its effects on health. Such information will be crucial for environmental policymakers as an input for discussions on the need to develop control strategies.

Intoxications alcooliques massives aux urgences: combien, qui, quoi et comment [Massive alcoholic poisoning in the emergency department: how many, who, what and how?].

Alcohol abuse causes numerous medical and social problems. In spite of the decrease of the global consumption of alcohol per capita in Switzerland during the last years, the cases of massive alcoholic poisoning seem increasing in emergency departments. Very few data is available at the moment on this phenomenon. The present article focuses on this problem within the framework of the emergency department of the CHUV. It aims at bringing to light on the sociodemographic and medical characteristics, as well as on the characteristics of the stay of these patients who are admitted with such a problem, to have a global vision of this phenomenon.

Arithmetical problems in number fields, abelian varieties and modular forms

Number theory, a fascinating area in mathematics and one of the oldest, has experienced spectacular progress in recent years. The development of a deep theoretical background and the implementation of algorithms have led to new and interesting interrelations with mathematics in general which have paved the way for the emergence of major theorems in the area. This report summarizes the contribution to number theory made by the members of the Seminari de Teoria de Nombres (UB-UAB-UPC) in Barcelona. These results are presented in connection with the state of certain arithmetical problems, and so this monograph seeks to provide readers with a glimpse of some specific lines of current mathematical research.

Secondary UBVRI-CCD standard stars in the neighbourhood of Landolt standard stars

A list of 681 UBVRI secondary standard stars for CCD photometry is presented. Visual magnitude ranges from 9.7 to 19.4, and the B-V colour index varies from 1.15 to 1.97. The stars are grouped into 11 different fields, each of them is generally observable in a single CCD frame. The stars are located near Landolt UBVRI equatorial standards, accessible to telescopes in both hemispheres, and mainly within the 5 - 8 hours range of right ascension. Photometry, equatorial coordinates and finding charts are provided.

The importance of intraespeciphic variation in the taxonomy of marine nematodes: The case of Terschellingia longispiculata Wieser & Hopper 1967 (Nematoda, Linhomoeidae)

In the presentstudy, the priority of taxonomic characters of cephalic region of Terschellingialongispiculata over those of the tail and reproductive system is discussed.Four morphological varieties of the species are established based on variationsof the tail and reproductive system. The problem of considering only changes inthe posterior region for determination of some species is posed. From this,studies on important populations must be done for the establishment of newspecies based on one of these characters, but taken together with characters inother regions such as the cephalic.

Electrical transport quantum effects in the In0.53Ga0.47As/In0.52Al0.48As heterostructure on silicon

Electrical transport in a modulation doped heterostructure of In0.53Ga0.47As/In0.52Al0.48As grown on Si by molecular beam epitaxy has been measured. Quantum Hall effect and Subnikov¿De Haas oscillations were observed indicating the two¿dimensional character of electron transport. A mobility of 20¿000 cm2/V¿s was measured at 6 K for an electron sheet concentration of 1.7×1012 cm¿2. Transmission electron microscopy observations indicated a significant surface roughness and high defect density of the InGaAs/InAlAs layers to be present due to the growth on silicon. In addition, fine¿scale composition modulation present in the In0.53Ga0.47As/In0.52Al0.48As may further limit transport properties.

Risk factors of stroke mortality in the African region: a cohort study

Background: Population-based cohort studies of risk factors of stroke are scarce in developing countries and none has been done in the African region. We conducted a longitudinal study in the Seychelles (Indian Ocean, east of Kenya), a middle-income island state where the majority of the population is of African descent. Such data in Africa are important for international comparison and for advocacy in the region. Methods: Three examination surveys of cardiovascular risk factors were performed in independent samples representative of the general population aged 25-64 in 1989, 1994 and 2004 (n=1081, 1067, and 1255, respectively). Baseline risk factors data were linked with cause-specific mortality from vital statistics up to May 2007 (all deaths are medically certified in the Seychelles and kept in an electronic database). We considered stroke (any type) as a cause of death if the diagnosis was reported in any of the 4 fields in the death certificates for underlying and concomitant causes of death. Results. Among the 2479 persons aged 35-64 at baseline, 280 died including 56 with stroke during follow up (maximum: 18.2 years; mean: 10.2 years). In this age range, age-adjusted mortality rates (/100'000/year) were 969 for all cause and 187 for stroke; age-adjusted prevalence of high blood pressure (≥140/90 mmHg) was 48%. In multivariate Cox survival time regression, stroke mortality was increased by 18% and 35% for a 10-mmHg increase in systolic, respectively diastolic BP (p<0.001). Stroke mortality was also associated with age, smoking ≥5 cigarettes vs. no smoking (HR: 2.4; 95% CI: 1.2-4.8) and diabetes (HR: 1.9; 1.02-3.6) but not with sex, LDL-cholesterol intake, alcohol intake and professional occupation. Conclusion. This first population-based cohort study in the African region demonstrates high mortality rates from stroke in middle-aged adults and confirms associations with high BP and other risk factors. This emphasizes the importance of reducing BP and other modifiable risk factors in high risk individuals and in the general population as a main strategy to reduce the burden of stroke.

A step beyond--the relevance of depressed mood and mastery in the interplay between the number of social roles and alcohol use.

OBJECTIVES: The present study examines whether depressed mood and external control mediate or moderate the relationship between the number of social roles and alcohol use. PARTICIPANTS: The analysis was based on a national representative sample of 25- to 45-year-old male and female drinkers in Switzerland. METHOD: The influence of depressed mood and external control on the relationship between the number of social roles (parenthood, partnership, employment) and alcohol use was examined in linear structural equation models (mediation) and in multiple regressions (moderation) stratified by gender. All analyses were adjusted for age and education level. RESULTS: Holding more roles was associated with lower alcohol use, lower external control and lower depressed mood. The study did not find evidence of depressed mood or external control mediating the social roles-alcohol relationship. A moderation effect was identified among women only, whereby a protective effect of having more roles could not be found among those who scored high on external control. In general, a stronger link was observed between roles and alcohol use, while depressed mood and external control acted independently on drinking. With the exception of women with high external control, the study found no link between a higher number of social roles and greater alcohol use. CONCLUSION: Our results indicate that drinking behaviours are more strongly linked to external control and depressed mood than they are to the number of social roles. The study also demonstrates that in any effective alcohol prevention policy, societal actions that enable individuals to combine more social roles play a central role.