The impact of price expectations on consumer's behavior in frequently purchased goods markets: empirical evidence and implications

Este trabalho investiga como os padrões de compras de consumidores de bens estocáveis são afetados por suas expectativas de preços. Usando um modelo dinâmico padrão de maximização da utilidade, deriva-se uma expressão analítica para as compras dos consumidores como uma função das suas expectativas em relação aos preços futuros. Em seguida, uma versão mais tratável do modelo é construída, de forma a ilustrar graficamente como os diferentes tipos de expectativas de preços implicam diferentes padrões de compras dos consumidores. Além disso, na aplicação empírica, investigo qual o modelo de expectativas de preços, entre aqueles comumente utilizados na literatura, é consistente com os dados. Por fim, encontra-se suficiente heterogeneidade em expectativa de preços dos consumidores. Mostra-se que famílias de pequeno porte acreditam que os preços seguem um processo de Markov de primeira ordem, enquanto famílias de alta renda são racionais.

Earnings dynamics and inequality in Venezuela: 1995-1997

In this paper, we decompose the variance of logarithmic monthly earnings of prime age males into its permanent and transitory components, using a five-wave rotating panel from the Venezuelan “Encuesta de Hogares por Muestreo” from 1995 to 1997. As far as we know, this is the first time a variance components model is estimated for a developing country. We test several specifications and find that an error component model with individual random effects and first order serially correlated errors fits the data well. In the simplest model, around 22% of earnings variance is explained by the variance of permanent component, 77% by purely stochastic variation and the remaining 1% by serial correlation. These results contrast with studies from industrial countries where the permanent component is predominant. The permanent component is usually interpreted as the results of productivity characteristics of individuals whereas the transitory component is due to stochastic perturbations such as job and/or price instability, among others. Our findings may be due to the timing of the panel when occurred precisely during macroeconomic turmoil resulting from a severe financial crisis. The findings suggest that earnings instability is an important source of inequality in a region characterized by high inequality and macroeconomic instability.

Debt and default in a growth model

This paper presents a small open economy model with capital accumulation and without commitment to repay debt. The optimal debt contract specifies debt relief following bad shocks and debt increase following good shocks and brings first order benefits if the country's borrowing constraint is binding. Countries with less capital (with higher marginal productivity of capital) have a higher debt-GDP ratio, are more likely to default on uncontingent bonds, require higher debt relief after bad shocks and pay a higher spread over treasury. Debt relief prescribed by the optimal contract following the interest rate hikes of 1980-81 is more than half of the debt forgiveness obtained by the main Latin American countries through the Brady agreements.

Três ensaios sobre o mercado de trabalho no Brasil

Esta tese é composta por três artigos e uma nota, sendo um em cada capítulo. Todos os capítulos enquadram-se na área de Microeconomia Aplicada e Economia do Trabalho. O primeiro artigo estende o modelo tradicional de decomposição das flutuações na taxa de desemprego de Shimer (2012), separando o emprego formal do informal. Com essa modificação, os principais resultados da metodologia se alteram e conclui-se que os principais fatores para a queda do desemprego na última década foram (i) a queda na taxa de participação, principalmente pela menor entrada na força de trabalho; (ii) o aumento da formalização, atingido tanto pelo aumento da probabilidade de encontrar um trabalho formal quanto pela probabilidade de deixar a condição de empregado formal. O segundo capítulo apresenta estimativas para o retorno à educação no Brasil, utilizando uma nova metodologia que não necessita de variáveis de exclusão. A vantagem do método em relação a abordagens que utilizam variáveis instrumentais é a de permitir avaliar o retorno médio para todos os trabalhadores (e não somente os afetados pelos instrumentos) e em qualquer instante do tempo. Face aos resultados, concluímos as estimativas via MQO subestimam o retorno médio. Discute-se possíveis explicações para esse fenômeno. O terceiro artigo trata da terceirização da mão de obra no Brasil. Mais especificamente, mede-se o diferencial de salários entre os trabalhadores terceirizados e os contratados diretamente. Os resultados de uma comparação não condicional indicam que os terceirizados têm salário médio 17% menor no período 2007 a 2012. Porém, com estimativas que levam em conta o efeito fixo de cada trabalhador, esse diferencial cai para 3,0%. Além disso, o diferencial é bastante heterogêneo entre os tipos de serviços: aqueles que utilizam trabalhadores de baixa qualificação apresentam salário menores, enquanto nas ocupações de maior qualificação os terceirizados têm salários iguais ou maiores do que os diretamente contratados. Mais ainda, as evidencias apontam para a diminuição do diferencial ao longo do tempo no período analisado. Finalmente, a nota que encerra a tese documenta dois aspectos relevantes e pouco conhecidos da Pesquisa Mensal de Emprego do IBGE que podem levar a resultados imprecisos nas pesquisas que utilizam esse painel se não forem tratados adequadamente.

Variação temporal da Comunidade de macroinvertebrados bentônicos em um riacho intermitente do semiárido brasileiro

In Brazilian semiarid region, the majority of water bodies are temporary and the biodiversity in these ecosystems is poorly known. The goal of this study was to describe the temporal variation of benthic macroinvertebrates in an intermittent stream in the Brazilian semiarid region. From March to July of 2009, surveys of benthic macroinvertebrates and water physiochemical parameters were done in a first order stream located at Piranhas-Açu River basin. 25 macroinvertebrates families were found, 21 belonging to Insecta class. The chironomids were the most abundant group during all study period and were represented by 19 genus. The largest densities and taxonomic richness were seen in the drying phase of the stream while the smallest values were found in the period with the heaviest rainfalls ( wet phase ). Only the families Chironomidae and Ceratopogonidae were found during all study period, suggesting that these groups have better adaptations to support floods and droughts. Furthermore, these two groups seemed to be pioneering in this stream. Among the chironomids, Paratendipes dominated the period of floods while Tanytarsus were more abundant in the drying phase . This study showed that hydrological fluctuation is the main force influencing the macroinvertebrate community in this stream, therefore, efforts seeking the conservation and management of Brazilian semiarid water bodies should consider this high natural variability in flow regime

Growth analysis of sweet pepper cultivated in coconut fiber in a greenhouse

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Estudo e implementação em plantas físicas de um controlador preditivo generalizado com restrições

This work shows a study about the Generalized Predictive Controllers with Restrictions and their implementation in physical plants. Three types of restrictions will be discussed: restrictions in the variation rate of the signal control, restrictions in the amplitude of the signal control and restrictions in the amplitude of the Out signal (plant response). At the predictive control, the control law is obtained by the minimization of an objective function. To consider the restrictions, this minimization of the objective function is done by the use of a method to solve optimizing problems with restrictions. The chosen method was the Rosen Algorithm (based on the Gradient-projection). The physical plants in this study are two didactical systems of water level control. The first order one (a simple tank) and another of second order, which is formed by two tanks connected in cascade. The codes are implemented in C++ language and the communication with the system to be done through using a data acquisition panel offered by the system producer

Uma proposta de um controlador adaptativo por posicionamento de pólos e estrutura variável

There are two main approaches for using in adaptive controllers. One is the so-called model reference adaptive control (MRAC), and the other is the so-called adaptive pole placement control (APPC). In MRAC, a reference model is chosen to generate the desired trajectory that the plant output has to follow, and it can require cancellation of the plant zeros. Due to its flexibility in choosing the controller design methodology (state feedback, compensator design, linear quadratic, etc.) and the adaptive law (least squares, gradient, etc.), the APPC is the most general type of adaptive control. Traditionally, it has been developed in an indirect approach and, as an advantage, it may be applied to non-minimum phase plants, because do not involve plant zero-pole cancellations. The integration to variable structure systems allows to aggregate fast transient and robustness to parametric uncertainties and disturbances, as well. In this work, a variable structure adaptive pole placement control (VS-APPC) is proposed. Therefore, new switching laws are proposed, instead of using the traditional integral adaptive laws. Additionally, simulation results for an unstable first order system and simulation and practical results for a three-phase induction motor are shown

Simulação numérica da interação entre uma nuvem incidente de vórtices e uma aerofólio através do método dos vórtices

The study of aerodynamic loading variations has many engineering applications, including helicopter rotor blades, wind turbines and turbo machinery. This work uses a Vortex Method to make a lagrangian description of the a twodimensional airfoil/ incident wake vortex interaction. The flow is incompressible, newtonian, homogeneus and the Reynolds Number is 5x105 .The airfoil is a NACA 0018 placed a angle of attack of the 0° and 5°simulates with the Painel Method with a constant density vorticity panels and a generation poit is near the painel. The protector layer is created does not permit vortex inside the body. The vortex Lamb convection is realized with the Euler Method (first order) and Adans-Bashforth (second order). The Random Walk Method is used to simulate the diffusion. The circular wake has 366 vortex all over positive or negative vorticity located at different heights with respect to the airfoil chord. The Lift was calculated based in the algorithm created by Ricci (2002). This simulation uses a ready algorithm vatidated with single body does not have a incident wake. The results are compared with a experimental work The comparasion concludes that the experimental results has a good agrement with this papper

Estudo das interações polifenol-proteína e das reações de escurecimento não-enzimático para o processamento de cajuína

The cashew, a fruit from Brazilian Northeast is used to produce juice due to its flavor and vitamin C richness. However, its acceptance is limited due to its astringency. Cajuína is a derivate product appreciated by its characteristic flavor, freshness and lack of astringency, due to tannin removal. Cajuína is a light yellow beverage made from clarified cashew juice and sterilized after bottling. It differs from the integral and concentrated juice by the clarification and thermal treatment steps. Many problems such as haze and excessive browning could appear if these steps are not controlled. The objective of this work was divided into two stages with the aim to supply process information in order to obtain a good quality product with uniform characteristics (sensory and nutritional). Polyphenol-protein interaction was studied at the clarification step, which is an empirical process, to provide values on the amount of clarifying solution (gelatin) that must be added to achieve a complete juice clarification. Clarification essays were performed with juice dilutions of 1:2 and 1:10 and the effect of metabissulfite and tannic acid addition was evaluated. It was not possible to establish a clarification point. Metabissulfite did not influenced the clarification process however tannic acid addition displaced the clarification point, showing the difficulty visual monitoring of the process. Thermal treatment of clarified juice was studied at 88, 100, 111 e 121 °C. To evaluate the non-enzymatic browning, vitamin C, 5-hidroximetilfurfural (5-HMF) and sugar variation were correlated with color parameters (reflectance spectra, color difference and CIELAB). Kinetic models were obtained for reflectance spectra, ascorbic acid and 5-HMF. It was observed that 5-HMF introduction followed a first order kinetic rate at the beginning of the thermal treatment and a zero order kinetic at later process stages. An inverse correlation was observed between absorbance at 420 nm and ascorbic acid degradation, which indicates that ascorbic acid might be the principal factor on cajuína non-enzymatic browning. Constant sugar concentration showed that this parameter did not contribute directly to the nonenzymatic browning. Optimization techniques showed showed that to obtain a high vitamin C and a low 5-HMF content, the process must be done at 120 ºC. With the water-bath thermal treatment, the 90 °C temperature promoted a lower ascorbic acid degradation at the expense of a higher 5-HMF level

Remoção de óleo da água de produção por flotação em coluna utilizando tensoativos de origem vegetal

In the petroleum industry, water is always present in the reservoir formation together with petroleum and natural gas and this fact provokes the production of water with petroleum, resulting in a great environmental impact. Several methods can be applied for treatment of oily waters, such as: gravitational vases, granulated media filtration systems, flotation process, centrifugation process and the use of hydrocyclones, which can also be used in a combined way. However, the flotation process has showed a great efficiency as compared with other methods, because these methods do not remove great part of the emulsified oil. In this work was investigated the use of surfactants derived from vegetable oils, OSS and OGS, as collectors, using the flotation process in a glass column with a porous plate filter in its base for the input of the gaseous steam. For this purpose, oil/water emulsions were prepared using mechanical stirring, with concentrations around 300 ppm. The air flow rate was set at 700 cm3/min and the porous plate filter used for the generation of the air bubbles has pore size varying from 16 to 40 Pm. The column operated at constant volume (1500mL). A new methodology has been developed to collect the samples, where, instead of collecting the water phase, it was collected the oil phase removed by the process in the top of the flotation column. It has been observed that it is necessary to find an optimum surfactant concentration to achieve enhanced removal efficiency. Being for OSS 1.275 mmol/L and for OGS 0.840 mmol/L, with removal efficiencies of 93% and 99%, respectively, using synthetic solutions. For the produced water, the removal in these concentrations was 75% for OSS and 65% for OGS. It is possible to remove oil from water in a flotation process using surfactants of high HLB, fact that is against the own definition of HLB (Hydrophile-Lipophile Balance). The interfacial tension is an important factor in the oil removal process using a flotation process, because it has direct interference in the coalescence of the oil drops. The spreading of the oil of the air bubble should be considered in the process, and for the optimum surfactant concentrations it reached a maximum value. The removal kinetics for the flotation process using surfactants in the optimum concentration has been adjusted according to a first order model, for synthetic water as for the produced water.

Automação de um sistema rotatório para secagem do rejeito de maracujá

The rotary dryer is one of the most used equipments in processing industries. Its automatic control mode of operation is important specially to keep the moisture content of the final product in the desired value. The classical control strategies, like PID (proportional integral derivative) control, are largely used in the industrial sector because of its robustness and because they are easy to be implemented. In this work, a data acquisition system was implemented for monitoring the most relevant process variables, like: both inlet and outlet drying air temperature, dryer rotation, outlet air speed and humidity, and mass of the final product. Openloop tests were realized to identify a mathematical model able to represent the drying process for the rotary system. From this model, a PID controller was tuned using a direct synthesis method, assuming a first order trajectory. The PID controller was implemented in the system in order to control the inlet drying air temperature. By the end, closedloop tests (operating in automatic mode) were realized to observe the controller performance, and, after setting the best tune, experiments were realized using passion fruit seeds as raw material. The experiments realized in closedloop showed a satisfactory performance by the implemented control strategy for the drying air temperature of the rotary system

Análise dos Processos de Flotação e Oxidação Avançada para o Tratamento de Efluente Modelo da Indústria do Petróleo

The generation of wastes in most industrial process is inevitable. In the petroleum industry, one of the greatest problems for the environment is the huge amount of produced water generated in the oil fields. This wastewater is a complex mixture and present great amounts. These effluents can be hazardous to the environmental without adequate treatment. This research is focused in the analysis of the efficiencies of the flotation and photo-oxidation processes to remove and decompose the organic compounds present in the produced water. A series of surfactants derivated from the laurilic alcohol was utilized in the flotation to promote the separation. The experiments have been performed with a synthetic wastewater, carefully prepared with xylene. The experimental data obtained using flotation presented a first order kinetic, identified by the quality of the linear data fitting. The best conditions were found at 0.029 g.L-1 for the surfactant EO 7, 0.05 g.L-1 for EO 8, 0.07 g.L-1 for EO 9, 0.045 g.L-1 for EO 10 and 0.08 g.L-1 for EO 23 with the following estimated kinetic constants: 0.1765, 0.1325, 0.1210, 0.1531 and 0.1699 min-1, respectively. For the series studied, the most suitable surfactant was the EO 7 due to the lower reagent onsumption, higher separation rate constant and higher removal efficiency of xylene in the aqueous phase (98%). Similarly to the flotation, the photo-Fenton process shows to be efficient for degradation of xylene and promoting the mineralization of the organic charge around 90% and 100% in 90 min

Secagem do resíduo industrial da acerola em leito de jorro: estudos fluidodinâmicos e análise do desempenho do secador

In this research, the drying process of acerola waste was investigated by using a spouted bed drier. The process was conducted using high density polyethylene inert particles with the objective of producing an ascorbic acid-rich final product. The fruit waste was ground and used to prepare different water-maltodextrin suspensions. Initially, fluidynamical experiments were conducted in order to evaluate the feeding effect on the spouted bed drier fluidynamics behavior. The experimental planning 23 + 3 was used to investigate the effect of the following variables: solids concentration, drying air temperature, intermittence time, production efficiency, solids retention and product losses by elutriation of fine particles on drier walls. The effect of selected independent variables on the drier stability was also evaluated based on a parameter defined as the ratio between the feed suspension volume and the total inert particles volume. Finally, the powder quality was verified in experiments with fixed feed flow and varying air drying temperature, drying air velocity and intermittence time. It was observed that the suspension interferes in the spouted bed drier fluidynamics behavior, and higher air flow is necessary to stabilize the drier. The suspension also promotes the expansion of the spouted bed diameter, decreases the solid circulation and favors the air distribution at the flush area. All variables interfere in the spouted bed performance, and the solids concentration has a major effect on the material retention and losses. The intermittence time also has great effect on the stability and material retention. When it comes to production efficiency, the main effect observed was the drying air temperature. First order models were well adjusted to retention and losses data. The acerola powder presented ascorbic acid levels around 600 to 700 mg/100g. Similar moisture and ascorbic acid levels were obtained for powders obtained by spouted bed and spray drier. However, the powder production efficiency of the spray drier was lower when compared to spouted bed drier. When it comes to energetic analysis, the spray drier process was superior. The results obtained for spouted bed drier are promising and highly dependent on the operational parameters chosen, but in general, it is inferred that this drying process is adequate for paste and suspension drying

Recuperação e purificação de ramnolipídeos produzidos por pseudomonas aeruginosa P029-GVIIA utilizando melaço de cana como substrato

Biosurfactants are molecules produced by microorganisms mainly bacteria as Pseudomonas and Bacillus. Among the biosurfactants, rhamnolipids play an important role due to their tensoactive as well as emulsifying properties. Besides can be produced in a well consolidated way the production costs of biosurfactants are quite expansive mainly if downstream processing is goning to be considered. Actually, attention has been given to identification of biosurfactants as well as optimization of its fermentative processes including downstream ones. This work deals with the development of strategies to recovery and purification of rhamnolipids produced by Pseudomonas aeruginosa P029-GVIIA using sugar-cane molasses as substrate. Broth free of cells was used in order to investigate the best strategies to recovery and purification produced by this system. Between the studied acids (HCl and H2SO4) for the acid precipitation step, HCl was the best one as has been showed by the experimental design 24. Extraction has been carried out using petroleum ether and quantification has been done using the thioglycolic acid method. Adsorption studies were carried out with activated carbon in a batch mode using a 24 experimental design as well as combined with an hydrophobic resin Streamline Phenyl aiming to separate the produced biosurfactant. Biosurfactant partial identification was carried out using High Performance Liquid Chromatography (HPLC). Experiments in batch mode showed that adsorption has been controlled mainly by pH and temperature. It was observed a reduction of 41.4% for the liquid phase and the solid phase it was possible to adsorb up to 15 mg of rhamnolipd/g of activated carbon. The kinetics of adsorption has been well fitted to a pseudo-first order reaction with velocity constant (k1) of 1.93 x 10-2 min-1. Experiments in packed bed ranging concentration on eluent (acetone) has been shown the highest recovery factor of 98% when pure acetone has been used. The combined effect if using activated carbon with an hydrophobic resin Streamline Phenyl has been shown successful for the rhamnolipids purification. It has been possible to purify a fraction of the crude broth with 98% of purity when the eluted of activated carbon packed bed was used with pure acetone