Aerosol size distribution and its connection to cloud droplet number concentration

In order to predict the current state and future development of Earth s climate, detailed information on atmospheric aerosols and aerosol-cloud-interactions is required. Furthermore, these interactions need to be expressed in such a way that they can be represented in large-scale climate models. The largest uncertainties in the estimate of radiative forcing on the present day climate are related to the direct and indirect effects of aerosol. In this work aerosol properties were studied at Pallas and Utö in Finland, and at Mount Waliguan in Western China. Approximately two years of data from each site were analyzed. In addition to this, data from two intensive measurement campaigns at Pallas were used. The measurements at Mount Waliguan were the first long term aerosol particle number concentration and size distribution measurements conducted in this region. They revealed that the number concentration of aerosol particles at Mount Waliguan were much higher than those measured at similar altitudes in other parts of the world. The particles were concentrated in the Aitken size range indicating that they were produced within a couple of days prior to reaching the site, rather than being transported over thousands of kilometers. Aerosol partitioning between cloud droplets and cloud interstitial particles was studied at Pallas during the two measurement campaigns, First Pallas Cloud Experiment (First PaCE) and Second Pallas Cloud Experiment (Second PaCE). The method of using two differential mobility particle sizers (DMPS) to calculate the number concentration of activated particles was found to agree well with direct measurements of cloud droplet. Several parameters important in cloud droplet activation were found to depend strongly on the air mass history. The effects of these parameters partially cancelled out each other. Aerosol number-to-volume concentration ratio was studied at all three sites using data sets with long time-series. The ratio was found to vary more than in earlier studies, but less than either aerosol particle number concentration or volume concentration alone. Both air mass dependency and seasonal pattern were found at Pallas and Utö, but only seasonal pattern at Mount Waliguan. The number-to-volume concentration ratio was found to follow the seasonal temperature pattern well at all three sites. A new parameterization for partitioning between cloud droplets and cloud interstitial particles was developed. The parameterization uses aerosol particle number-to-volume concentration ratio and aerosol particle volume concentration as the only information on the aerosol number and size distribution. The new parameterization is computationally more efficient than the more detailed parameterizations currently in use, but the accuracy of the new parameterization was slightly lower. The new parameterization was also compared to directly observed cloud droplet number concentration data, and a good agreement was found.

Fracture process zone size and true fracture energy of concrete using acoustic emission

Acoustic emission (AE) energy, instead of amplitude, associated with each of the event is used to estimate the fracture process zone (FPZ) size. A steep increase in the cumulative AE energy of the events with respect to time is correlated with the formation of FPZ. Based on the AE energy released during these events and the locations of the events, FPZ size is obtained. The size-independent fracture energy is computed using the expressions given in the boundary effect model by least squares method since over-determined system of equations are obtained when data from several specimens are used. Instead of least squares method a different method is suggested in which the transition ligament length, measured from the plot of histograms of AE events plotted over the un-cracked ligament, is used directly to obtain size-independent fracture energy. The fracture energy thus calculated seems to be size-independent.

Parametric finite element analyses of geocellsupported embankments

This paper presents the results from parametric finite element analyses of geocell-supported embankments constructed on weak foundation soils. A composite model is used to numerically simulate the improvement in the strength and stiffness of the soil as a result of geocell confinement. The shear strength of the geocell-encased soil is obtained as a function of the additional confining pressure due to the geocell encasement considering it as a thin cylinder subjected to internal pressure. The stiffness of the geocell-encased soil is obtained from the stiffness of the unreinforced soil and the tensile modulus of the geocell material using an empirical equation. The validity of the model is verified by simulating the laboratory experiments on model geocell-supported embankments. Parametric finite element analyses of the geocell-supported embankments are carried out by varying the dimensions of the geocell layer, the tensile strength of the material used for fabricating the geocell layer, the properties of the infill soil, and the depth of the foundation layer. Some important guidelines for selecting the geocell reinforcement to support embankments on weak foundation soils are established through these numerical studies.

Parametrized actor-critic algorithms for finite-horizon MDPs

Due to their non-stationarity, finite-horizon Markov decision processes (FH-MDPs) have one probability transition matrix per stage. Thus the curse of dimensionality affects FH-MDPs more severely than infinite-horizon MDPs. We propose two parametrized 'actor-critic' algorithms to compute optimal policies for FH-MDPs. Both algorithms use the two-timescale stochastic approximation technique, thus simultaneously performing gradient search in the parametrized policy space (the 'actor') on a slower timescale and learning the policy gradient (the 'critic') via a faster recursion. This is in contrast to methods where critic recursions learn the cost-to-go proper. We show w.p 1 convergence to a set with the necessary condition for constrained optima. The proposed parameterization is for FHMDPs with compact action sets, although certain exceptions can be handled. Further, a third algorithm for stochastic control of stopping time processes is presented. We explain why current policy evaluation methods do not work as critic to the proposed actor recursion. Simulation results from flow-control in communication networks attest to the performance advantages of all three algorithms.

The partition of unity finite element method for elastic wave propagation in Reissner-Mindlin plates

This paper reports a numerical method for modelling the elastic wave propagation in plates. The method is based on the partition of unity approach, in which the approximate spectral properties of the infinite dimensional system are embedded within the space of a conventional finite element method through a consistent technique of waveform enrichment. The technique is general, such that it can be applied to the Lagrangian family of finite elements with specific waveform enrichment schemes, depending on the dominant modes of wave propagation in the physical system. A four-noded element for the Reissner-indlin plate is derived in this paper, which is free of shear locking. Such a locking-free property is achieved by removing the transverse displacement degrees of freedom from the element nodal variables and by recovering the same through a line integral and a weak constraint in the frequency domain. As a result, the frequency-dependent stiffness matrix and the mass matrix are obtained, which capture the higher frequency response with even coarse meshes, accurately. The steps involved in the numerical implementation of such element are discussed in details. Numerical studies on the performance of the proposed element are reported by considering a number of cases, which show very good accuracy and low computational cost. Copyright (C)006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Context-dependency of a complex fruit-frugivore mutualism: temporal variation in crop size and neighborhood effects

The quantity of fruit consumed by dispersers is highly variable among individuals within plant populations. The outcome Of Such selection operated by firugivores has been examined mostly with respect to changing spatial contexts. The influence of varying temporal contexts on frugivore choice, and their possible demographic and evolutionary consequences is poorly understood. We examined if temporal variation in fruit availability across a hierarchy of nested temporal levels (interannual, intraseasonal, 120 h, 24 h) altered frugivore choice for a complex seed dispersal system in dry tropical forests of southern India. The interactions between Phyllanthus emblica and its primary disperser (ruminants) was mediated by another frugivore (a primate),which made large quantities of fruit available on the ground to ruminants. The direction and strength of crop size and neighborhood effects on this interaction varied with changing temporal contexts.Fruit availability was higher in the first of the two study years, and at the start of the season in both years. Fruit persistence on trees,determined by primate foraging, was influenced by crop size andconspecific neighborhood densities only in the high fruit availability year. Fruit removal by ruminants was influenced by crop size in both years and neighborhood densities only in the high availability year. In both years, these effects were stronger at the start of the season.Intraseasonal reduction in fruit availability diminished inequalities in fruit removal by ruminants and the influence of crop size and fruiting neighborhoods. All trees were not equally attractive to frugivores in a P. emblica population at all points of time. Temporal asymmetry in frugivore-mediated selection could reduce potential for co-evolution between firugivores and plants by diluting selective pressures. Inter-dependencies; formed between disparate animal consumers can add additional levels of complexity to plant-frugivore mutualistic networks and have potential reproductive consequences for specific individuals within populations.

Ductile deformation of single inclusions in simple shear with a finite-strain hyperelastoviscoplastic rheology

We examine the 2D plane-­strain deformation of initially round, matrix-­bonded, deformable single inclusions in isothermal simple shear using a recently introduced hyperelastoviscoplastic rheology. The broad parameter space spanned by the wide range of effective viscosities, yield stresses, relaxation times, and strain rates encountered in the ductile lithosphere is explored systematically for weak and strong inclusions, the effective viscosity of which varies with respect to the matrix. Most inclusion studies to date focused on elastic or purely viscous rheologies. Comparing our results with linear-­viscous inclusions in a linear-­viscous matrix, we observe significantly different shape evolution of weak and strong inclusions over most of the relevant parameter space. The evolution of inclusion inclination relative to the shear plane is more strongly affected by elastic and plastic contributions to rheology in the case of strong inclusions. In addition, we found that strong inclusions deform in the transient viscoelastic stress regime at high Weissenberg numbers (≥0.01) up to bulk shear strains larger than 3. Studies using the shapes of deformed objects for finite-­strain analysis or viscosity-­ratio estimation should establish carefully which rheology and loading conditions reflect material and deformation properties. We suggest that relatively strong, deformable clasts in shear zones retain stored energy up to fairly high shear strains. Hence, purely viscous models of clast deformation may overlook an important contribution to the energy budget, which may drive dissipation processes within and around natural inclusions.

Size-dependent magnetic properties of iron carbide nanoparticles embedded in a carbon matrix

Here we report on the magnetic properties of iron carbide nanoparticles embedded in a carbon matrix. Granular distributions of nanoparticles in an inert matrix, of potential use in various applications, were prepared by pyrolysis of organic precursors using the thermally assisted chemical vapour deposition method. By varying the precursor concentration and preparation temperature, compositions with varying iron concentration and nanoparticle sizes were made. Powder x-ray diffraction, transmission electron microscopy and Mossbauer spectroscopy studies revealed the nanocrystalline iron carbide (Fe3C) presence in the partially graphitized matrix. The dependence of the magnetic properties on the particle size and temperature (10 K < T < 300 K) were studied using superconducting quantum interference device magnetometry. Based on the affect of surrounding carbon spins, the observed magnetic behaviour of the nanoparticle compositions, such as the temperature dependence of magnetization and coercivity, can be explained.

Diagnostic Tests Based on Quantile Residuals for Nonlinear Time Series Models

This thesis studies quantile residuals and uses different methodologies to develop test statistics that are applicable in evaluating linear and nonlinear time series models based on continuous distributions. Models based on mixtures of distributions are of special interest because it turns out that for those models traditional residuals, often referred to as Pearson's residuals, are not appropriate. As such models have become more and more popular in practice, especially with financial time series data there is a need for reliable diagnostic tools that can be used to evaluate them. The aim of the thesis is to show how such diagnostic tools can be obtained and used in model evaluation. The quantile residuals considered here are defined in such a way that, when the model is correctly specified and its parameters are consistently estimated, they are approximately independent with standard normal distribution. All the tests derived in the thesis are pure significance type tests and are theoretically sound in that they properly take the uncertainty caused by parameter estimation into account. -- In Chapter 2 a general framework based on the likelihood function and smooth functions of univariate quantile residuals is derived that can be used to obtain misspecification tests for various purposes. Three easy-to-use tests aimed at detecting non-normality, autocorrelation, and conditional heteroscedasticity in quantile residuals are formulated. It also turns out that these tests can be interpreted as Lagrange Multiplier or score tests so that they are asymptotically optimal against local alternatives. Chapter 3 extends the concept of quantile residuals to multivariate models. The framework of Chapter 2 is generalized and tests aimed at detecting non-normality, serial correlation, and conditional heteroscedasticity in multivariate quantile residuals are derived based on it. Score test interpretations are obtained for the serial correlation and conditional heteroscedasticity tests and in a rather restricted special case for the normality test. In Chapter 4 the tests are constructed using the empirical distribution function of quantile residuals. So-called Khmaladze s martingale transformation is applied in order to eliminate the uncertainty caused by parameter estimation. Various test statistics are considered so that critical bounds for histogram type plots as well as Quantile-Quantile and Probability-Probability type plots of quantile residuals are obtained. Chapters 2, 3, and 4 contain simulations and empirical examples which illustrate the finite sample size and power properties of the derived tests and also how the tests and related graphical tools based on residuals are applied in practice.

Studies on Binary Time Series Models with Applications to Empirical Macroeconomics and Finance

This thesis studies binary time series models and their applications in empirical macroeconomics and finance. In addition to previously suggested models, new dynamic extensions are proposed to the static probit model commonly used in the previous literature. In particular, we are interested in probit models with an autoregressive model structure. In Chapter 2, the main objective is to compare the predictive performance of the static and dynamic probit models in forecasting the U.S. and German business cycle recession periods. Financial variables, such as interest rates and stock market returns, are used as predictive variables. The empirical results suggest that the recession periods are predictable and dynamic probit models, especially models with the autoregressive structure, outperform the static model. Chapter 3 proposes a Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test for the usefulness of the autoregressive structure of the probit model. The finite sample properties of the LM test are considered with simulation experiments. Results indicate that the two alternative LM test statistics have reasonable size and power in large samples. In small samples, a parametric bootstrap method is suggested to obtain approximately correct size. In Chapter 4, the predictive power of dynamic probit models in predicting the direction of stock market returns are examined. The novel idea is to use recession forecast (see Chapter 2) as a predictor of the stock return sign. The evidence suggests that the signs of the U.S. excess stock returns over the risk-free return are predictable both in and out of sample. The new "error correction" probit model yields the best forecasts and it also outperforms other predictive models, such as ARMAX models, in terms of statistical and economic goodness-of-fit measures. Chapter 5 generalizes the analysis of univariate models considered in Chapters 2 4 to the case of a bivariate model. A new bivariate autoregressive probit model is applied to predict the current state of the U.S. business cycle and growth rate cycle periods. Evidence of predictability of both cycle indicators is obtained and the bivariate model is found to outperform the univariate models in terms of predictive power.

Study of gas cavity size hysteresis in a packed bed using DEM

When a high velocity gas jet is introduced into a packed bed a cavity is formed. The size of the cavity shows hysteresis on increasing and decreasing gas flow rates. This hysteresis leads to different cavity sizes at same gas flow rate depending on the bed history. The size of cavity affects the gas flow profiles in the packed bed. In this study the cavity size hysteresis phenomenon has been modeled using discrete element method along with turbulent gas flow. A reasonable agreement has been found between computed and experimental results on cavity size ysteresis. The effect of various parameters, such as nozzle height from the bed bottom and packing height, on the cavity size hysteresis has been studied. It is found that inter-particle interaction forces along with gas drag and bed porosity play an important role in describing the cavity size hysteresis. The injection of gas flow allows the particles to go to an unconstrained state than they were previously in, and their ability to remain in that state, even under decreased gas drag force, leads to the phenomenon of cavity size hysteresis. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.