915 resultados para Equation of prediction


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Gough, John, (2004) 'Holevo-Ordering and the Continuous-Time Limit for Open Floquet Dynamics', Letters in Mathematical Physcis 67(3) pp.207-221 RAE2008

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Treścią publikacji jest przedstawienie wybranych problemów prognozowania w naukach społecznych. W artykule skoncentrowano się na metodzie gier decyzyjnych/symulacyjnych, które – zwłaszcza wraz z rozwojem teorii gier oraz komputerów – są coraz częściej wykorzystywane w wielu dziedzinach. Na wybranych przykładach gier decyzyjnych/symulacyjnych – Poznań International Model United Nations 2013/POZiMUN; S.E.N.S.E. a także gry sieciowej EVE Online – wskazano jak ważne są takie ćwiczenia, by móc precyzyjniej przewidywać przyszłość. Zwrócono także szczególną uwagę na kwestię przypadku oraz czynników zakłócających, które mogą destabilizować proces przewidywania. Poruszono ponadto problem podejmowania decyzji w aspekcie klasycznej oraz kwantowej logiki.

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A nonparametric probability estimation procedure using the fuzzy ARTMAP neural network is here described. Because the procedure does not make a priori assumptions about underlying probability distributions, it yields accurate estimates on a wide variety of prediction tasks. Fuzzy ARTMAP is used to perform probability estimation in two different modes. In a 'slow-learning' mode, input-output associations change slowly, with the strength of each association computing a conditional probability estimate. In 'max-nodes' mode, a fixed number of categories are coded during an initial fast learning interval, and weights are then tuned by slow learning. Simulations illustrate system performance on tasks in which various numbers of clusters in the set of input vectors mapped to a given class.

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It is shown how the Debye rotational diffusion model of dielectric relaxation of polar molecules (which may be described in microscopic fashion as the diffusion limit of a discrete time random walk on the surface of the unit sphere) may be extended to yield the empirical Havriliak-Negami (HN) equation of anomalous dielectric relaxation from a microscopic model based on a kinetic equation just as in the Debye model. This kinetic equation is obtained by means of a generalization of the noninertial Fokker-Planck equation of conventional Brownian motion (generally known as the Smoluchowski equation) to fractional kinetics governed by the HN relaxation mechanism. For the simple case of noninteracting dipoles it may be solved by Fourier transform techniques to yield the Green function and the complex dielectric susceptibility corresponding to the HN anomalous relaxation mechanism.

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The analysis of chironomid taxa and environmental datasets from 46 New Zealand lakes identified temperature (February mean air temperature) and lake production (chlorophyll a (Chl a)) as the main drivers of chironomid distribution. Temperature was the strongest driver of chironomid distribution and consequently produced the most robust inference models. We present two possible temperature transfer functions from this dataset. The most robust model (weighted averaging-partial least squares (WA-PLS), n = 36) was based on a dataset with the most productive (Chl a > 10 lg l)1) lakes removed. This model produced a coefficient of determination (r2 jack) of 0.77, and a root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEPjack) of 1.31C. The Chl a transfer function (partial least squares (PLS), n = 37) was far less reliable, with an r2 jack of 0.49 and an RMSEPjack of 0.46 Log10lg l)1. Both of these transfer functions could be improved by a revision of the taxonomy for the New Zealand chironomid taxa, particularly the genus Chironomus. The Chironomus morphotype was common in high altitude, cool, oligotrophic lakes and lowland, warm, eutrophic lakes. This could reflect the widespread distribution of one eurythermic species, or the collective distribution of a number of different Chironomus species with more limited tolerances. The Chl a transfer function could also be improved by inputting mean Chl a values into the inference model rather than the spot measurements that were available for this study.

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Despite attempts to identify the mechanisms by which obesity leads to the development of Type 2 Diabetes (T2D), it remains unclear why some but not all adults with obesity develop T2D. Given the established associations between visceral adipose tissue (VAT) and liver fat with insulin resistance, we hypothesized that compared to age and obesity matched adults who were non-diabetic (NT2D), adults with T2D would have greater amounts of VAT and liver fat. The International Study of Prediction of Intra-Abdominal Adiposity and Its Relationship with Cardiometabolic Risk/Intra-Abdominal Adiposity (INSPIRE ME IAA) aims to study the associations between VAT and liver fat and risk of developing T2D and cardiovascular disease. Four thousand, five hundred and four participants were initially recruited; from this, 2383 White and Asian adults were selected for this ancillary analysis. The NT2D and T2D groups were matched for age, body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC). The T2D and NT2D groups were also compared to participants with either impaired fasting glucose (IFG) or impaired glucose tolerance (IGT; IFG/IGT)). Abdominal adipose tissue was measured by computed tomography; liver fat was estimated using computed tomography-derived mean attenuation. Secondary analysis determined whether differences existed between NT2D and T2D groups in VAT and liver fat accumulation within selected BMI categories for Whites and Asians. We report across sex and race, T2D and IFG/IGT groups had elevated VAT and liver fat compared to the NT2D group (p<0.05). VAT was not different between IFG/IGT and T2D groups (p>0.05), however liver fat was greater in the T2D group compared to the IFG/IGT group in both Whites and Asians (p<0.05). Within each BMI category, the T2D group had elevated VAT and liver fat compared to the age and anthropometrically matched NT2D group in both Whites and Asians (p<0.05). With few exceptions, abdominal subcutaneous adipose tissue was not different in the T2D or IFG/IGT groups compared to the NT2D group independent of sex and race. Compared to age and obesity-matched adults who are NT2D, we observe that White and Asian adults with T2D, and those with IFG/IGT, present with greater levels of both VAT and liver fat.

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High power lasers are a tool that can be used to determine important parameters in the context of Warm Dense Matter, i.e. at the convergence of low-temperature plasma physics and finite-temperature condensed matter physics. Recent results concerning planet inner core materials such as water and iron are presented. We determined the equation of state, temperature and index of refraction of water for pressures up to 7 Mbar. The release state of iron in a LiF window allowed us to investigate the melting temperature near the inner core boundary conditions. Finally, the first application of proton radiography to the study of shocked material is also discussed.

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The behaviour and ultimate load capacity of laterally-restrained reinforced concrete slabs can be considerably enhanced by the development of arching or compressive membrane action. This paper presents a simple method for predicting the enhanced ultimate load capacity of laterally-restrained slab strips. The method is based on deformation theory and utilizes an elastic-plastic stress-strain criterion for concrete. The loads carried by bending and arching action are calculated separately and then added to give the total ultimate load capacity. A simple equivalent strip approach, based on a three-hinged arch analogy, allows for the degree of lateral restraint. The method of prediction has been validated by correlation with a wide range of test results from various sources.

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A self-consistent relativistic two-fluid model is proposed for electron-ion plasma dynamics. A one-dimensional geometry is adopted. Electrons are treated as a relativistically degenerate fluid, governed by an appropriate equation of state. The ion fluid is also allowed to be relativistic, but is cold, nondegenerate, and subject only to an electrostatic potential. Exact stationary-profile solutions are sought, at the ionic scale, via the Sagdeev pseudopotential method. The analysis provides the pulse existence region, in terms of characteristic relativistic parameters, associated with the (ultrahigh) particle density.

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Abstract The current study reports original vapour-liquid equilibrium (VLE) for the system {CO2 (1) + 1-chloropropane (2)}. The measurements have been performed over the entire pressure-composition range for the (303.15, 313.15 and 328.15) K isotherms. The values obtained have been used for comparison of four predictive approaches, namely the equation of state (EoS) of Peng and Robinson (PR), the Soave modification of Benedict–Webb–Rubin (SBWR) EoS, the Critical Point-based Revised Perturbed-Chain Association Fluid Theory (CP-PC-SAFT) EoS, and the Conductor-like Screening Model for Real Solvents (COSMO-RS). It has been demonstrated that the three EoS under consideration yield similar and qualitatively accurate predictions of VLE, which is not the case for the COSMO-RS model examined. Although CP-PC-SAFT EoS exhibits only minor superiority in comparison with PR and SBWR EoS in predicting VLE in the system under consideration, its relative complexity can be justified when taking into account the entire thermodynamic phase space and, in particular, considering the liquid densities and sound velocities over a wider pressure-volume-temperature range.

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The European Eye Epidemiology (E3) consortium is a recently formed consortium of 29 groups from 12 European countries. It already comprises 21 population-based studies and 20 other studies (case-control, cases only, randomized trials), providing ophthalmological data on approximately 170,000 European participants. The aim of the consortium is to promote and sustain collaboration and sharing of data and knowledge in the field of ophthalmic epidemiology in Europe, with particular focus on the harmonization of methods for future research, estimation and projection of frequency and impact of visual outcomes in European populations (including temporal trends and European subregions), identification of risk factors and pathways for eye diseases (lifestyle, vascular and metabolic factors, genetics, epigenetics and biomarkers) and development and validation of prediction models for eye diseases. Coordinating these existing data will allow a detailed study of the risk factors and consequences of eye diseases and visual impairment, including study of international geographical variation which is not possible in individual studies. It is expected that collaborative work on these existing data will provide additional knowledge, despite the fact that the risk factors and the methods for collecting them differ somewhat among the participating studies. Most studies also include biobanks of various biological samples, which will enable identification of biomarkers to detect and predict occurrence and progression of eye diseases. This article outlines the rationale of the consortium, its design and presents a summary of the methodology.

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Em consequência de uma série de problemas ambientais, económicos e políticos relacionados com o uso de combustíveis convencionais, vários países estão agora a focar as suas atenções em combustíveis alternativos. O biodiesel está na linha da frente das alternativas ao petróleo no sector dos transportes, sendo considerado uma opção a curto prazo visto que o seu preço é competitivo e não são necessárias mudanças nos motores para implementar o seu uso. De entres os possíveis processos de produzir biodiesel, a reacção de transesterificação com catálise básica é o método preferido. Depois da reacção são sempre necessários processos de purificação de modo ao biodiesel produzido cumprir os standards definidos para os combustíveis alternativos, reduzindo problemas de motor e consequentemente aumentando a sua aceitação por parte dos consumidores. De entre as especificações encontram-se o conteúdo em água, em álcool e em glicerol. Ser-se capaz de descrever correctamente o equilíbrio de fases de sistemas que são de interesse para os processos de purificação de biodieseis numa gama alargada de condições termodinâmicas é uma condição necessária para uma correcta simulação do processo industrial, de modo a se atingir uma elevada produtividade a baixos custos de operação. O uso de moléculas oxigenadas como combustíveis representa uma alteração significativa em termos da termodinâmica de soluções. Para combustíveis baseados em petróleo as equações de estado cúbicas e os modelos clássicos de coeficientes de actividade mostraram ser apropriados, no entanto para combustíveis novos como o biodiesel, sendo mais complexos do ponto de vista das interacções intermoleculares com formação de dipolos e pontes de hidrogénio, são necessários modelos termodinâmicos mais complexos para descrever essas interacções. Neste trabalho a CPA EoS (Cubic-Plus-Association Equation of State) será desenvolvida de modo a permitir uma descrição adequada dos equilíbrios líquido-vapor e líquido-líquido para uma serie de sistemas binários e multicomponentes contendo água, ácidos gordos, ésteres de ácidos gordos, glicerol e álcoois.

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Tese de doutoramento, Geografia (Geografia Física), Universidade de Lisboa, Instituto de Geografia e Ordenamento do Território, 2014

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Relatório da Prática de Ensino Supervisionada, Ciências da Educação (Mestrado em Ensino da Matemática), Universidade de Lisboa, Instituto de Educação, 2014

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Dissertação apresentada ao Instituto Politécnico do Porto para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Logística Orientada por: Professora Doutora Patrícia Alexandra Gregório Ramos