893 resultados para Endogenous switching regression


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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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Objective: To identify potential prognostic factors for pulmonary thromboembolism (PTE), establishing a mathematical model to predict the risk for fatal PTE and nonfatal PTE.Method: the reports on 4,813 consecutive autopsies performed from 1979 to 1998 in a Brazilian tertiary referral medical school were reviewed for a retrospective study. From the medical records and autopsy reports of the 512 patients found with macroscopically and/or microscopically,documented PTE, data on demographics, underlying diseases, and probable PTE site of origin were gathered and studied by multiple logistic regression. Thereafter, the jackknife method, a statistical cross-validation technique that uses the original study patients to validate a clinical prediction rule, was performed.Results: the autopsy rate was 50.2%, and PTE prevalence was 10.6%. In 212 cases, PTE was the main cause of death (fatal PTE). The independent variables selected by the regression significance criteria that were more likely to be associated with fatal PTE were age (odds ratio [OR], 1.02; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.00 to 1.03), trauma (OR, 8.5; 95% CI, 2.20 to 32.81), right-sided cardiac thrombi (OR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.02 to 3.77), pelvic vein thrombi (OR, 3.46; 95% CI, 1.19 to 10.05); those most likely to be associated with nonfatal PTE were systemic arterial hypertension (OR, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.33 to 0.80), pneumonia (OR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.30 to 0.71), and sepsis (OR, 0.16; 95% CI, 0.06 to 0.40). The results obtained from the application of the equation in the 512 cases studied using logistic regression analysis suggest the range in which logit p > 0.336 favors the occurrence of fatal PTE, logit p < - 1.142 favors nonfatal PTE, and logit P with intermediate values is not conclusive. The cross-validation prediction misclassification rate was 25.6%, meaning that the prediction equation correctly classified the majority of the cases (74.4%).Conclusions: Although the usefulness of this method in everyday medical practice needs to be confirmed by a prospective study, for the time being our results suggest that concerning prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of PTE, strict attention should be given to those patients presenting the variables that are significant in the logistic regression model.

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It is often necessary to run response surface designs in blocks. In this paper the analysis of data from such experiments, using polynomial regression models, is discussed. The definition and estimation of pure error in blocked designs are considered. It is recommended that pure error is estimated by assuming additive block and treatment effects, as this is more consistent with designs without blocking. The recovery of inter-block information using REML analysis is discussed, although it is shown that it has very little impact if thc design is nearly orthogonally blocked. Finally prediction from blocked designs is considered and it is shown that prediction of many quantities of interest is much simpler than prediction of the response itself.

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Aim of the study: Cissus sicyoides L. is a medicinal plant popularly known in Brazil against various diseases and the research interest in this plant is justifiable because of its potential medicinal value in stomachache and gastric ulcer.Materials and methods: The methanolic extract obtained from the leaves of Cissus sicyoides (Cc) was evaluated for the ability to protect the gastric mucosa against injuries caused by necrotizing agents (0.3 M HCl/60% EtOH, absolute ethanol, piroxicam and pylorus ligature) in rodents. We also evaluated microcirculation, antioxidant action and participation of NO (nitric oxide) and sulfhydryls (SH) groups in the Cc gastroprotective action.Results: Administration of Cc significantly reduced gastric lesions induced by different ulcerogenic agents in rodents. This extract administered by oral route significantly increased gastric volume without exerting antisecretory effect. The Cc effect involved an increase of the defense mechanism of the gastrointestinal mucosa such as NO and SH groups that prevent and attenuate the ulcer process. The Cc also has antioxidant property against oxidative stress but does not modify microcirculation response in gastric mucosa.Conclusions: These results confirmed the traditional use of Cissus sicyoides for the treatment of gastric ulcer. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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The present study reveals the pharmacological action of Serjania erecta Radlk. (Family Sapindaceae), an important medicinal plant species used in the Brazilian Pantanal against gastric pain. The methanolic (Me) and chloroformic (Se) extracts obtained from leaves of S. erecta were challenged by a very strong necrotizing agent in rodents, absolute ethanol. Se was also confronted with a nitric oxide synthase inhibitor (N(G)-nitro-l-arginine methyl ester), a capsaicin cation channel transient receptor potential vanilloid type 1 antagonist (ruthenium red), or a sulfhydryl-blocker (N-ethylmaleimide) to evaluate the participation of these cytoprotective factors in gastroprotection. In an in vivo experimental model, Me and Se presented several degrees of gastroprotective action without signs of acute toxicity. The best gastroprotective effect was restricted to all doses of Se. The mechanisms involving the gastroprotective action of Se are related to an augmented defense mechanism of the gastrointestinal mucosa consisting of sensory neurons, nitric oxide, and sulfhydryl groups that prevent and attenuate the ulcer process. The presence of polyisoprenoids in the Se explains the potent gastroprotective action of this medicinal species. Effective gastroprotective action and the absence of acute toxicity indicate this species may be a promising herbal drug against gastric disease.

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Paracoccidioides brasiliensis is the agent of paracoccidioidomycosis, the most prevalent deep mycosis in Latin America. Production of eicosanoids during fungal infections plays a critical role on fungal biology as well as on host immune response modulation. The purpose of our study was to assess whether P. brasiliensis strains with different degree of virulence (Pb18, Pb265, Bt79, Pb192) produce prostaglandin E-x (PGE(x)). Moreover, we asked if P. brasiliensis could use exogenous sources of arachidonic acid (AA), as well as metabolic pathways dependent on cyclooxygenase (COX) enzyme, as reported for mammalian cells. A possible association between this prostanoid and fungus viability was also assessed. Our results showed that all strains, independently of their virulence, produce high PGE(x) levels on 4 h culture that were reduced after 8 h. However, in both culture times, higher prostanoid levels were detected after supplementation of medium with exogenous AA. Treatment with indomethacin, a COX inhibitor, induced a reduction on PGEx, as well as in fungus viability. The data provide evidence that P. brasiliensis produces prostaglandin-like molecules by metabolizing either endogenous or exogenous AA. Moreover, the results suggest the involvement of these mediators on fungal viability.

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Annexin 1 (ANXA1), galectin-1 (Gal-1) and galectin-3 (Gal-3) proteins have been identified as important mediators that promote or inhibit leukocyte migration. The expression of these proteins was studied in human neutrophils and endothelial cells (ECs) during a transmigration process induced by IL-8. Upon neutrophil adhesion to EC, a significant increase in the cleaved ANXA1 (LCS3, raised against all ANXA1 isoforms) expression was detected in the plasma membrane of adhered neutrophils and ECs compared to intact ANXA1 isoform (LCPS1, against N-terminus of protein). Adherent neutrophils had elevated Gal-3 levels in the nucleus and cytoplasm, and ECs in their plasma membranes. In contrast, a decrease in the total amounts of Gal-1 was detected in migrated compared to non-migrated neutrophils. Therefore, ANXA1 and Gal-3 changed in their content and localization when neutrophils adhere to endothelia, suggesting a process of sensitive-balance between two endogenous anti- and pro-inflammatory mediators. (c) 2006 International Federation for Cell Biology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Um modelo bayesiano de regressão binária é desenvolvido para predizer óbito hospitalar em pacientes acometidos por infarto agudo do miocárdio. Métodos de Monte Carlo via Cadeias de Markov (MCMC) são usados para fazer inferência e validação. Uma estratégia para construção de modelos, baseada no uso do fator de Bayes, é proposta e aspectos de validação são extensivamente discutidos neste artigo, incluindo a distribuição a posteriori para o índice de concordância e análise de resíduos. A determinação de fatores de risco, baseados em variáveis disponíveis na chegada do paciente ao hospital, é muito importante para a tomada de decisão sobre o curso do tratamento. O modelo identificado se revela fortemente confiável e acurado, com uma taxa de classificação correta de 88% e um índice de concordância de 83%.