Shallow landslide prediction in the Serra do Mar, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Various methods are currently used in order to predict shallow landslides within the catchment scale. Among them, physically based models present advantages associated with the physical description of processes by means of mathematical equations. The main objective of this research is the prediction of shallow landslides using TRIGRS model, in a pilot catchment located at Serra do Mar mountain range, Sao Paulo State, southeastern Brazil. Susceptibility scenarios have been simulated taking into account different mechanical and hydrological values. These scenarios were analysed based on a landslide scars map from the January 1985 event, upon which two indexes were applied: Scars Concentration (SC - ratio between the number of cells with scars, in each class, and the total number of cells with scars within the catchment) and Landslide Potential (LP - ratio between the number of cells with scars, in each class, and the total number of cells in that same class). The results showed a significant agreement between the simulated scenarios and the scar's map. In unstable areas (SF <= 1), the SC values exceeded 50% in all scenarios. Based on the results, the use of this model should be considered an important tool for shallow landslide prediction, especially in areas where mechanical and hydrological properties of the materials are not well known.

Spatial patterns of malaria in a land reform colonization project, Juruena municipality, Mato Grosso, Brazil

Background: In Brazil, 99% of malaria cases are concentrated in the Amazon, and malaria's spatial distribution is commonly associated with socio-environmental conditions on a fine landscape scale. In this study, the spatial patterns of malaria and its determinants in a rural settlement of the Brazilian agricultural reform programme called ""Vale do Amanhecer"" in the northern Mato Grosso state were analysed. Methods: In a fine-scaled, exploratory ecological study, geocoded notification forms corresponding to malaria cases from 2005 were compared with spectral indices, such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the third component of the Tasseled Cap Transformation (TC_3) and thematic layers, derived from the visual interpretation of multispectral TM-Landsat 5 imagery and the application of GIS distance operators. Results: Of a total of 336 malaria cases, 102 (30.36%) were caused by Plasmodium falciparum and 174 (51.79%) by Plasmodium vivax. Of all the cases, 37.6% (133 cases) were from residents of a unique road. In total, 276 cases were reported for the southern part of the settlement, where the population density is higher, with notification rates higher than 10 cases per household. The local landscape mostly consists of open areas (38.79 km(2)). Training forest occupied 27.34 km(2) and midsize vegetation 7.01 km(2). Most domiciles with more than five notified malaria cases were located near areas with high NDVI values. Most domiciles (41.78%) and malaria cases (44.94%) were concentrated in areas with intermediate values of the TC_3, a spectral index representing surface and vegetation humidity. Conclusions: Environmental factors and their alteration are associated with the occurrence and spatial distribution of malaria cases in rural settlements.

Determination of Three-Dimensional Left Ventricle Motion to Analyze Ventricular Dyssyncrony in SPECT Images

A method to compute three-dimension (3D) left ventricle (LV) motion and its color coded visualization scheme for the qualitative analysis in SPECT images is proposed. It is used to investigate some aspects of Cardiac Resynchronization Therapy (CRT). The method was applied to 3D gated-SPECT images sets from normal subjects and patients with severe Idiopathic Heart Failure, before and after CRT. Color coded visualization maps representing the LV regional motion showed significant difference between patients and normal subjects. Moreover, they indicated a difference between the two groups. Numerical results of regional mean values representing the intensity and direction of movement in radial direction are presented. A difference of one order of magnitude in the intensity of the movement on patients in relation to the normal subjects was observed. Quantitative and qualitative parameters gave good indications of potential application of the technique to diagnosis and follow up of patients submitted to CRT.

Lack of Antilipoprotein Lipase Antibodies in Takayasu's Arteritis

Background. Antilipoprotein lipase (anti-LPL) antibodies were described in rheumatic diseases. In systemic lupus erythematosus they were highly associated with inflammatory markers and dyslipidemia, and may ultimately contribute to vascular damage. The relevance of this association in Takayasu's arteritis, which is characterized by major inflammatory process affecting vessels, has not been determined. Objectives. To analyze the presence of anti-LPL antibodies in patients with Takayasu's arteritis and its association with inflammatory markers and lipoprotein risk levels. Methods. Thirty sera from patients with Takayasu's arteritis, according to ACR criteria, were consecutively included. IgG anti-LPL was detected by a standard ELISA. Lipoprotein risk levels were evaluated according to NCEP/ATPIII. Inflammatory markers included ESR and CRP values. Results. Takayasu's arteritis patients had a mean age of 34 years old and all were females. Half of the patients presented high ESR and 60% elevated CRP. Lipoprotein NCEP risk levels were observed in approximately half of the patients: 53% for total cholesterol, 43% for triglycerides, 16% for HDL-c and 47% for LDL-c. In spite of the high frequency of dyslipidemia and inflammatory markers in these patients no anti-LPL were detected. Conclusions. The lack of anti-LPL antibodies in Takayasu's disease implies distinct mechanisms underlying dyslipidemia compared to systemic lupus erythematosus. Copyright (C) 2009 Jozelio Freire de Carvalho et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Lipid Metabolism in Subclinical Hypothyroidism: Plasma Kinetics of Triglyceride-Rich Lipoproteins and Lipid Transfers to High-Density Lipoprotein Before and After Levothyroxine Treatment

Background: Subclinical hypothyroidism (SCH) has been associated with atherosclerosis, but the abnormalities in plasma lipids that can contribute to atherogenesis are not prominent. The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that patients with normocholesterolemic, normotriglyceridemic SCH display abnormalities in plasma lipid metabolism not detected in routine laboratory tests including abnormalities in the intravascular metabolism of triglyceride-rich lipoproteins, lipid transfers to high-density lipoprotein (HDL), and paraoxonase 1 activity. The impact of levothyroxine (LT4) treatment and euthyroidism in these parameters was also tested. Methods: The study included 12 SCH women and 10 matched controls. Plasma kinetics of an artificial triglyceride-rich emulsion labeled with radioactive triglycerides and cholesteryl esters as well as in vitro transfer of four lipids from an artificial donor nanoemulsion to HDL were determined at baseline in both groups and after 4 months of euthyroidism in the SCH group. Results: Fractional clearance rates of triglycerides (SCH 0.035 +/- 0.016 min(-1), controls 0.029 +/- 0.013 min(-1), p=0.336) and cholesteryl esters (SCH 0.009 +/- 0.007 min(-1), controls 0.009 +/- 0.009 min(-1), p=0.906) were equal in SCH and controls and were unchanged by LT4 treatment and euthyroidism in patients with SCH, suggesting that lipolysis and remnant removal of triglyceride-rich lipoproteins were normal. Transfer of triglycerides to HDL (SCH 3.6 +/- 0.48%, controls 4.7 +/- 0.63%, p=0.001) and phospholipids (SCH 16.2 +/- 3.58%, controls 21.2 +/- 3.32%, p=0.004) was reduced when compared with controls. After LT4 treatment, transfers increased and achieved normal values. Transfer of free and esterified cholesterol to HDL, HDL particle size, and paraoxonase 1 activity were similar to controls and were unchanged by treatment. Conclusions: Although intravascular metabolism of triglyceride-rich lipoproteins was normal, patients with SCH showed abnormalities in HDL metabolism that were reversed by LT4 treatment and achievement of euthyroidism.

Comparison of the Effects of Electrical Field Stimulation and Low-Level Laser Therapy on Bone Loss in Spinal Cord-Injured Rats

Objective: This study investigated the effects of low-level laser therapy (LLLT) and electrical stimulation (ES) on bone loss in spinal cord-injured rats. Materials and Methods: Thirty-seven male Wistar rats were divided into four groups: standard control group (CG); spinal cord-injured control (SC); spinal cord-injured treated with laser (SCL; GaAlAs, 830 nm, CW, 30mW/cm, 250 J/cm(2)); and spinal cord-injured treated with electrical field stimulation (SCE; 1.5 MHz, 1: 4 duty cycles, 30 mW, 20 min). Biomechanical, densitometric, and morphometric analyses were performed. Results: SC rats showed a significant decrease in bone mass, biomechanical properties, and morphometric parameters (versus CG). SCE rats showed significantly higher values of inner diameter and internal and external areas of tibia diaphyses; and the SCL group showed a trend toward the same result (versus SC). No increase was found in either mechanical or densitometric parameters. Conclusion: We conclude that the mentioned treatments were able to initiate a positive bone-tissue response, maybe through stimulation of osteoblasts, which was able to determine the observed morphometric modifications. However, the evoked tissue response could not determine either biomechanical or densitometric modifications.

Factor (NF) kappa B polymorphism is associated with heart function in patients with heart failure

Background: Cardiac remodeling is generally an adverse sign and is associated with heart failure (HF) progression. NFkB, an important transcription factor involved in many cell survival pathways, has been implicated in the remodeling process, but its role in the heart is still controversial. Recently, a promoter polymorphism associated with a lesser activation of the NFKB1 gene was also associated with Dilated Cardiomyopathy. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the association of this polymorphism with clinical and functional characteristics of heart failure patients of different etiologies. Methods: A total of 493 patients with HF and 916 individuals from a cohort of individuals from the general population were investigated. The NFKB1-94 insertion/deletion ATTG polymorphism was genotyped by High Resolution Melt discrimination. Allele and genotype frequencies were compared between groups. In addition, frequencies or mean values of different phenotypes associated with cardiovascular disease were compared between genotype groups. Finally, patients were prospectively followed-up for death incidence and genotypes for the polymorphism were compared regarding disease onset and mortality incidence in HF patients. Results: We did not find differences in genotype and allelic frequencies between cases and controls. Interestingly, we found an association between the ATTG(1)/ATTG(1) genotype with right ventricle diameter (P = 0.001), left ventricle diastolic diameter (P = 0.04), and ejection fraction (EF) (P = 0.016), being the genotype ATTG(1)/ATTG(1) more frequent in patients with EF lower than 50% (P = 0.01). Finally, we observed a significantly earlier disease onset in ATTG(1)/ATTG(1) carriers. Conclusion: There is no genotype or allelic association between the studied polymorphism and the occurrence of HF in the tested population. However, our data suggest that a diminished activation of NFKB1, previously associated with the ATTG(1)/ATTG(1) genotype, may act modulating on the onset of disease and, once the individual has HF, the genotype may modulate disease severity by increasing cardiac remodeling and function deterioration.

Spatio-Temporal Tracking and Phylodynamics of an Urban Dengue 3 Outbreak in Sao Paulo, Brazil

The dengue virus has a single-stranded positive-sense RNA genome of similar to 10.700 nucleotides with a single open reading frame that encodes three structural (C, prM, and E) and seven nonstructural (NS1, NS2A, NS2B, NS3, NS4A, NS4B, and NS5) proteins. It possesses four antigenically distinct serotypes (DENV 1-4). Many phylogenetic studies address particularities of the different serotypes using convenience samples that are not conducive to a spatio-temporal analysis in a single urban setting. We describe the pattern of spread of distinct lineages of DENV-3 circulating in Sao Jose do Rio Preto, Brazil, during 2006. Blood samples from patients presenting dengue-like symptoms were collected for DENV testing. We performed M-N-PCR using primers based on NS5 for virus detection and identification. The fragments were purified from PCR mixtures and sequenced. The positive dengue cases were geo-coded. To type the sequenced samples, 52 reference sequences were aligned. The dataset generated was used for iterative phylogenetic reconstruction with the maximum likelihood criterion. The best demographic model, the rate of growth, rate of evolutionary change, and Time to Most Recent Common Ancestor (TMRCA) were estimated. The basic reproductive rate during the epidemics was estimated. We obtained sequences from 82 patients among 174 blood samples. We were able to geo-code 46 sequences. The alignment generated a 399-nucleotide-long dataset with 134 taxa. The phylogenetic analysis indicated that all samples were of DENV-3 and related to strains circulating on the isle of Martinique in 2000-2001. Sixty DENV-3 from Sao Jose do Rio Preto formed a monophyletic group (lineage 1), closely related to the remaining 22 isolates (lineage 2). We assumed that these lineages appeared before 2006 in different occasions. By transforming the inferred exponential growth rates into the basic reproductive rate, we obtained values for lineage 1 of R(0) = 1.53 and values for lineage 2 of R(0) = 1.13. Under the exponential model, TMRCA of lineage 1 dated 1 year and lineage 2 dated 3.4 years before the last sampling. The possibility of inferring the spatio-temporal dynamics from genetic data has been generally little explored, and it may shed light on DENV circulation. The use of both geographic and temporally structured phylogenetic data provided a detailed view on the spread of at least two dengue viral strains in a populated urban area.

A Comparison of Bimatoprost 0.03% Versus the Fixed-Combination of Latanotoprost 0.005% and Timolol 0.5% in Adult Patients With Elevated Intraocular Pressure: An Eight-Week, Randomized, Open-Label Trial

Introduction and Purpose: Bimatoprost and the fixed combination of latanoprost with timolol maleate are 2 medications widely used to treat glaucoma and ocular hypertension (OHT). The aim of the study is to compare the efficacy of these 2 drugs in reducing intraocular pressure (IOP) after 8 weeks of treatment in patients with primary open angle glaucoma (POAG) or OHT. Methods: In this randomized, open-label trial, 44 patients with POAG or OHT were allocated to receive either bimatoprost (1 drop QD) or latanoprost/timolol (1 drop QD). Primary outcome was the mean diurnal IOP measurement at the 8th week, calculated as the mean IOP measurements taken at 8:00 AM, 10: 00 AM, and 12: 00 PM Secondary outcomes included the baseline change in IOP measured 3 times a day, after the water-drinking test (performed after the last IOP measurement), and the assessment of side effects of each therapy. Results: The mean IOP levels of latanoprost/timolol (13.83, SD = 2.54) was significantly lower than of bimatoprost (16.16, SD = 3.28; P < 0.0001) at week 8. Also, the change in mean IOP values was significantly higher in the latanoprost/timolol group at 10:00 AM (P = 0.013) and 12:00 PM (P = 0.01), but not at 8: 00 AM (P = ns). During the water-drinking test, there was no signifi cant difference in IOP increase (absolute and percentage) between groups; however, there was a signifi cant decrease in mean heart rate in the latanoprost/timolol group. Finally, no signifi cant changes in blood pressure and lung spirometry were observed in either groups. Conclusions: The fixed combination of latanoprost/timolol was significantly superior to bimatoprost alone in reducing IOP in patients with POAG or OHT. Further studies with large sample sizes should be taken to support the superior efficacy of latanoprost/timolol, as well as to better assess its profile of side effects.

Comparative Study of the Changes in Partial Pressure of Plasma Carbon Dioxide During Carbon Dioxide Insufflation into the Intraperitoneal and Preperitoneal Spaces

Background: We aimed to compare plasma concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO(2)) in dogs that underwent intra- and preperitoneal CO(2) insufflation. Materials and Methods: Thirty dogs were studied. Ten formed a control group, 10 underwent intraperitoneal CO(2) insufflation, and 10 underwent preperitoneal CO(2) insufflation. General anesthesia with controlled ventilation was standardized for all dogs. After stabilizing the anesthesia, blood samples were collected at predetermined times and were sent for immediate gasometric analysis. Analysis of variance was used for comparing variables. Results: The plasma CO(2) concentration in the intraperitoneal insufflation group increased significantly more than in the preperitoneal insufflation group and was significantly greater than in the control group (P < 0.05). The pH values in the intraperitoneal group were lower than in the preperitoneal group (P < 0.05). Conclusion: The data from this study suggest that a greater plasma concentration of CO(2) is achieved by insufflation at constant pressure into the intraperitoneal space than into the preperitoneal space.

The Effects of Commercially Available Preservative-Free FDA-Approved Triamcinolone (Triesence (R)) on Retinal Cells in Culture

Purpose: To evaluate the effects of Triesence (R) (TRI), a new preservative-free triamcinolone approved by the U. S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for intraocular use, on human retina pigment epithelial (ARPE-19) and rat neurosensory (R28) cells in culture. Methods: ARPE-19 and R28 cell cultures were treated 24 h with 1,000, 500, 200, or 100 mu g/mL of crystalline (cTRI) or 1,000, 500, or 200 mu g/mL of solubilized (sTRI). TRI was solubilized by centrifuging the drug, discarding the supernatant containing the vehicle and then resuspending the drug pellet in an equivalent amount of Dimethyl sulfoxide to achieve the same concentration as the commercial preparation. Percentage of cell viability (CV) was evaluated by a trypan blue dye-exclusion assay. The mitochondrial membrane potential (Delta Psi m) was analyzed with the JC-1 assay. The caspase-3/7 activity was measured by a fluorochrome assay. Results: In the ARPE-19 cultures, the cTRI caused a decrease in CV at 1,000 mg/mL (13.03 +/- 6.51; P < 0.001), 500 mu g/mL (28.87 +/- 9.3; P < 0.001), 200 mu g/mL (54.93 +/- 5.61; P < 0.001), and 100 mu g/mL (82.53 +/- 0.65; P < 0.005) compared with the untreated controls (96.98 +/- 0.16). In R28 cultures, the cTRI treatment also reduced CV values significantly (P < 0.001) for the 1,000 mu g/mL (22.73 +/- 2.44), 500 mu g/mL (34.63 +/- 1.91), 200 mu g/mL (58.70 +/- 1.39), and 100 mu g/m (75.33 +/- 2.47) compared with the untreated controls (86.08 +/- 3.54). Once the TRI was solubilized (sTRI), the CV and Delta Psi m remained similar to the untreated controls for both ARPE-19 and R28 cells. The sTRI treatment with 1,000, 500, and 200 mu g/mL increased in caspase-3/7 activity in ARPE-19 cells (P < 0.01) and in R28 cells (P < 0.05) compared with dimethyl sulfoxide equivalent controls. Conclusion: The crystalline form of TRI (cTRI) can cause a significant decrease in CV to cultured retinal cells. Once the TRI is solubilized (sTRI), at the same concentrations, the cells remain viable with no decrease in CV or Delta Psi m. The sTRI can, however, increase caspase-3/7 activity, thus suggesting some degree of apoptosis.

Effect of Low-Level Laser Therapy on Malondialdehyde Concentration in Random Cutaneous Flap Viability

Objective: The aim of this study was to assess the effects of 830 and 670 nm laser on malondialdehyde (MDA) concentration in random skin-flap survival. Background Data: Low-level laser therapy (LLLT) has been reported to be successful in stimulating the formation of new blood vessels and activating superoxide-dismutase delivery, thus helping the inhibition of free-radical action and consequently reducing necrosis. Materials and Methods: Thirty Wistar rats were used and divided into three groups, with 10 rats in each one. A random skin flap was raised on the dorsum of each animal. Group 1 was the control group; group 2 received 830 nm laser radiation; and group 3 was submitted to 670 nm laser radiation. The animals underwent laser therapy with 36 J/cm(2) energy density immediately after surgery and on the 4 days subsequent to surgery. The application site of the laser radiation was 1 point, 2.5 cm from the flap's cranial base. The percentage of the skin-flap necrosis area was calculated 7 days postoperative using the paper-template method, and a skin sample was collected immediately after as a way of determining the MDA concentration. Results: Statistically significant differences were found between the necrosis percentages, with higher values seen in group 1 compared with groups 2 and 3. Groups 2 and 3 did not present statistically significant differences (p > 0.05). Group 3 had a lower concentration of MDA values compared to the control group (p < 0.05). Conclusion: LLLT was effective in increasing the random skin-flap viability in rats, and the 670 nm laser was efficient in reducing the MDA concentration.

Myocardial ultrasonic tissue characterization in patients with thyroid dysfunction

Background: Structural myocardial abnormalities have been extensively documented in hypothyroidism. Experimental studies in animal models have also shown involvement of thyroid hormones in gene expression of myocardial collagen. This study was planned to investigate the ability of ultrasonic tissue characterization, as evaluated by integrated backscatter (IBS), to early identify myocardial involvement in thyroid dysfunction. Patients and Methods: We studied 15 patients with hyperthyroidism (HYPER), 8 patients with hypothyroidism (HYPO), 14 patients with subclinical hypothyroidism (SCH) and 19 normal (N) subjects, who had normal LV systolic function. After treatment, 10 HYPER, 6 HYPO, and 8 SCH patients were reevaluated. IBS images were obtained and analyzed in parasternal short axis (papillary muscle level) view, at left ventricular (LV) posterior wall. The following IBS variables were analyzed: 1) the corrected coefficient (CC) of IBS, obtained by dividing IBS intensity by IBS intensity measured in a rubber phantom, using the same equipment adjustments, at the same depth; 2) cardiac cyclic variation (CV) of IBS - peak-to-peak difference between maximal and minimal values of IBS during cardiac cycle; 3) cardiac cyclic variation index (CVI) of IBS - percentual relationship between the cyclic variation (CV) and the mean value of IBS intensity. Results: CC of IBS was significantly larger (p < 0.05) in HYPER (1.57 +/- 0.6) and HYPO (1.53 +/- 0.3) as compared to SCH (1.32 +/- 0.3) or N (1.15 +/- 0.27). The CV (dB) (HYPO: 7.5 +/- 2.4; SCH: 8.2 +/- 3.1; HYPER: 8.2 +/- 2.0) and the CVI (HYPO: 35.6 +/- 19.7%; SCH: 34.7 +/- 17.5%; HYPER: 37.8 +/- 11.6%) were not significantly different in patients with thyroid dysfunction as compared to N (7.0 +/- 2.0 and 44.5 +/- 15.1%). Conclusions: CC of IBS was able to differentiate cardiac involvement in patients with overt HYPO and HYPER who had normal LV systolic function. These early myocardial structural abnormalities were partially reversed by drug therapy in HYPER group. On the other hand, although mean IBS intensity tended to be slightly larger in patients with SCH as compared to N, this difference was not statistical significant.

Hypothalamic-pituitary axis and peripheral tissue responses to TRH stimulation and Liothyronine suppression tests in normal subjects evaluated by current methods

Objective: To reevaluate the responses of thyrotropin-releasing hormone ( TRH) stimulation test in baseline condition as well as after the administration of graded supraphysiological doses of liothyronine ( L- T-3) in normal subjects. Design: To assess various parameters related to the hypothalamic-pituitary axis and peripheral tissue responses to L- T-3 in 22 normal individuals ( median age: 30.5 years). Subjects were submitted to an intravenous TRH test at baseline condition and also to the oral administration of sequential and graded doses of L- T-3 ( 50, 100, and 200 mu g/day), each given over 3 days, at an outpatient clinic. Blood samples were obtained for thyrotropin (TSH) and prolactin (PRL) at basal and then 15, 30, and 60 minutes after the TRH injection. Effects of L- T3 administration on cholesterol, creatine kinase, retinol, ferritin, and sex hormone-binding globulin ( SHBG) were also measured at basal and after the oral administration of L- T-3. Main outcome: TRH administration resulted in an increase of 4-to 14-fold rise in serum TSH ( 8.3 +/- 2.5-fold), and in a slight rise in serum PRL concentrations ( 3.8 +/- 1.5-fold). Administration of graded doses of triiodothyronine ( T-3) resulted in a dose-dependent suppression of TSH and PRL. Basal thyroxine- binding globulin (TBG) and cholesterol levels decreased, and ferritin and SHBG increased after L- T-3 administration, while creatine kinase and retinol did not change throughout the study. There was a positive correlation between basal TSH and TSH peak response to TRH at basal condition and after each sequential L- T-3 doses. On the other hand, TSH peak response to the TRH test did not predict cholesterol, TBG, ferritin, or SHBG values. Conclusion: Using the current methods on hormone and biochemical analysis, we standardized the response of many parameters to TRH stimulation test after sequential and graded T-3 suppression test in normal subjects. Our data suggest that the evaluation of the responses of the hypothalamus-pituitary axis to TRH test as well as the impact of L- T-3 on peripheral tissues were not modified by the current methods.

Multi-trait and random regression mature weight heritability and breeding value estimates in Nelore cattle

Mature weight breeding values were estimated using a multi-trait animal model (MM) and a random regression animal model (RRM). Data consisted of 82 064 weight records from 8 145 animals, recorded from birth to eight years of age. Weights at standard ages were considered in the MM. All models included contemporary groups as fixed effects, and age of dam (linear and quadratic effects) and animal age as covariates. In the RRM, mean trends were modelled through a cubic regression on orthogonal polynomials of animal age and genetic maternal and direct and maternal permanent environmental effects were also included as random. Legendre polynomials of orders 4, 3, 6 and 3 were used for animal and maternal genetic and permanent environmental effects, respectively, considering five classes of residual variances. Mature weight (five years) direct heritability estimates were 0.35 (MM) and 0.38 (RRM). Rank correlation between sires' breeding values estimated by MM and RRM was 0.82. However, selecting the top 2% (12) or 10% (62) of the young sires based on the MM predicted breeding values, respectively 71% and 80% of the same sires would be selected if RRM estimates were used instead. The RRM modelled the changes in the (co) variances with age adequately and larger breeding value accuracies can be expected using this model.