Hierarchical Bayesian modelling of early detection surveillance for plant pest invasions

Early detection surveillance programs aim to find invasions of exotic plant pests and diseases before they are too widespread to eradicate. However, the value of these programs can be difficult to justify when no positive detections are made. To demonstrate the value of pest absence information provided by these programs, we use a hierarchical Bayesian framework to model estimates of incursion extent with and without surveillance. A model for the latent invasion process provides the baseline against which surveillance data are assessed. Ecological knowledge and pest management criteria are introduced into the model using informative priors for invasion parameters. Observation models assimilate information from spatio-temporal presence/absence data to accommodate imperfect detection and generate posterior estimates of pest extent. When applied to an early detection program operating in Queensland, Australia, the framework demonstrates that this typical surveillance regime provides a modest reduction in the estimate that a surveyed district is infested. More importantly, the model suggests that early detection surveillance programs can provide a dramatic reduction in the putative area of incursion and therefore offer a substantial benefit to incursion management. By mapping spatial estimates of the point probability of infestation, the model identifies where future surveillance resources can be most effectively deployed.

Economic evaluation of precision controlled traffic farming in the Australian sugar industry: a case study of an early adopter

Controlled traffic has been identified as the most practical method of reducing compaction-related soil structural degradation in the Australian sugarcane industry. GPS auto-steer systems are required to maximize this potential. Unfortunately there is a perception that little economic gain will result from investing in this technology. Regardless, a number of growers have made the investment and are reaping substantial economic and lifestyle rewards. In this paper we assess the cost effectiveness of installing GPS guidance and using it to implement Precision Controlled Traffic Farming (PCTF) based on the experience of an early adopter. The Farm Economic Analysis Tool (FEAT) model was used with data provided by the grower to demonstrate the benefits of implementing PCTF. The results clearly show that a farming system based on PCTF and the minimum tillage improved farm gross margin by 11.8% and reduced fuel usage by 58%, compared to producers' traditional practice. PCTF and minimum tillage provide sugar producers with a tool to manage the price cost squeeze at a time of low sugar prices. These data provide producers with the evidence that investment in PCTF is economically prudent.

Elizabeth Krakauer nee Gottschalk in an unknown early Krakauer apartment.

Digital Image

Quality of life after early enteral feeding versus standard care for proven or suspected advanced epithelial ovarian cancer: Results from a randomised trial

Background Malnutrition is common in patients with advanced epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC), and is associated with impaired quality of life (QoL), longer hospital stay and higher risk of treatment-related adverse events. This phase III multi-centre randomised clinical trial tested early enteral feeding versus standard care on postoperative QoL. Methods From 2009 to 2013, 109 patients requiring surgery for suspected advanced EOC, moderately to severely malnourished were enrolled at five sites across Queensland and randomised to intervention (n = 53) or control (n = 56) groups. Intervention involved intraoperative nasojejunal tube placement and enteral feeding until adequate oral intake could be maintained. Despite being randomised to intervention, 20 patients did not receive feeds (13 did not receive the feeding tube; 7 had it removed early). Control involved postoperative diet as tolerated. QoL was measured at baseline, 6 weeks postoperatively and 30 days after the third cycle of chemotherapy. The primary outcome measure was the difference in QoL between the intervention and the control group. Secondary endpoints included treatment-related adverse event occurrence, length of stay, postoperative services use, and nutritional status. Results Baseline characteristics were comparable between treatment groups. No significant difference in QoL was found between the groups at any time point. There was a trend towards better nutritional status in patients who received the intervention but the differences did not reach statistical significance except for the intention-to-treat analysis at 7 days postoperatively (11.8 intervention vs. 13.8 control, p 0.04). Conclusion Early enteral feeding did not significantly improve patients' QoL compared to standard of care but may improve nutritional status.

The identification of teaching interactions used in one-to-one teaching of number in the early years of schooling

This research paper reports on phase one of an investigation of video recorded intensive one-to-one teaching interactions with 6–7-year-old students who were in their second year of schooling in Australia and identified by the their teacher as low attaining in early number. The two-phased study from which this paper emerges was originally conducted in 1998 as part of my Bachelor of Teaching Honours (Research) program at Southern Cross University Lismore, New South Wales. That study identified teaching interactions particularly suited to one-to-one teaching in the Maths Recovery Program, a program designed for these students who were at risk of failure in early number. Since that time a great deal has not changed with limited literature available that comprehensively reports on teaching interactions in intensive one-to-one settings. Revisiting the original study is considered timely given the increasing number of withdrawal and intensive programs now funded and adopted by schools and yet, rarely reported on in terms of the effectiveness of the teaching interactions that occur in such settings. This paper then presents a discussion of a preliminary series of teaching interactions that either positively and or negatively influence an intensive one-to-one teaching and learning setting

Surgical fusion of early onset severe scoliosis increases survival in Rett syndrome: A cohort study

Aim Scoliosis is a common co-morbidity in Rett syndrome and spinal fusion may be recommended if severe. We investigated the impact of spinal fusion on survival and risk of severe lower respiratory tract infection in Rett syndrome. Method Data were ascertained from hospital medical records, the Australian Rett Syndrome Database, a longitudinal and population-based registry, and from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare National Death Index database. Cox regression and generalized estimating equation models were used to estimate the effects of spinal surgery on survival and severe respiratory infection respectively in 140 females who developed severe scoliosis (Cobb angle ≥45°) before adulthood. Results After adjusting for mutation type and age of scoliosis onset, the rate of death was lower in the surgery group (hazard ratio [HR] 0.30, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.12–0.74; p=0.009) compared to those without surgery. Rate of death was particularly reduced for those with early onset scoliosis (HR 0.17, 95% CI 0.06–0.52; p=0.002). There was some evidence to suggest that spinal fusion was associated with a reduction in risk of severe respiratory infection among those with early onset scoliosis (risk ratio 0.41, 95% CI 0.16–1.03; p=0.06). Interpretation With appropriate cautions, spinal fusion confers an advantage to life expectancy in Rett syndrome.

Moving European research on work and ageing forward: Overview and agenda

This paper summarizes the state of affairs of European research on ageing and work. After a close inspection of the age construct, an overview is presented of research in four areas: the relationship between age and HR-policies, early retirement, age and performance/employability, age and health/well-being. The overview results in a research agenda on work and ageing and in recommendations for practice.

Reducing the risk of herbicide runoff in sugarcane farming through controlled traffic and early-banded application

The off-site transport of agricultural chemicals, such as herbicides, into freshwater and marine ecosystems is a world-wide concern. The adoption of farm management practices that minimise herbicide transport in rainfall-runoff is a priority for the Australian sugarcane industry, particularly in the coastal catchments draining into the World Heritage listed Great Barrier Reef (GBR) lagoon. In this study, residual herbicide runoff and infiltration were measured using a rainfall simulator in a replicated trial on a brown Chromosol with 90–100% cane trash blanket cover in the Mackay Whitsunday region, Queensland. Management treatments included conventional 1.5 m spaced sugarcane beds with a single row of sugarcane (CONV) and 2 m spaced, controlled traffic sugarcane beds with dual sugarcane rows (0.8 m apart) (2mCT). The aim was to simulate the first rainfall event after the application of the photosynthesis inhibiting (PSII) herbicides ametryn, atrazine, diuron and hexazinone, by broadcast (100% coverage, on bed and furrow) and banding (50–60% coverage, on bed only) methods. These events included heavy rainfall 1 day after herbicide application, considered a worst case scenario, or rainfall 21 days after application. The 2mCT rows had significantly (P < 0.05) less runoff (38%) and lower peak runoff rates (43%) than CONV rows for a rainfall average of 93 mm at 100 mm h−1 (1:20 yr Average Return Interval). Additionally, final infiltration rates were higher in 2mCT rows than CONV rows, with 72 and 52 mm h−1 respectively. This resulted in load reductions of 60, 55, 47, and 48% for ametryn, atrazine, diuron and hexazinone from 2mCT rows, respectively. Herbicide losses in runoff were also reduced by 32–42% when applications were banded rather than broadcast. When rainfall was experienced 1 day after application, a large percentage of herbicides were washed off the cane trash. However, by day 21, concentrations of herbicide residues on cane trash were lower and more resistant to washoff, resulting in lower losses in runoff. Consequently, ametryn and atrazine event mean concentrations in runoff were approximately 8 fold lower at day 21 compared with day 1, whilst diuron and hexazinone were only 1.6–1.9 fold lower, suggesting longer persistence of these chemicals. Runoff collected at the end of the paddock in natural rainfall events indicated consistent though smaller treatment differences to the rainfall simulation study. Overall, it was the combination of early application, banding and controlled traffic that was most effective in reducing herbicide losses in runoff. Crown copyright © 2012

Revisiting genetic structuring in spotted gums (genus Corymbia section Maculatae) focusing on C. maculata, an early diverged, insular lineage

Species delineation in the spotted gum complex was revisited focusing on Corymbia maculata. This study expands the range of C. maculata analysed with microsatellite markers to include populations from the north of the species range. It supported earlier findings that it is a cohesive genetic entity, well resolved from northern spotted gum taxa, Corymbia citriodora and Corymbia henryi; and inferences that its insularity is due to early lineage divergence and historical isolation. The northern extent of C. maculata sampled, as defined by chloroplast and nuclear genomes predominantly of C. maculata character, was the location of Kiwarrak, south of the Manning River near Taree in New South Wales. Trees from a recognised intergrade zone at the Yarratt locality, around 26 km north of Kiwarrak, also possessed a uniquely C. maculata chloroplast haplotype, but their nuclear genomes were predominantly of northern taxa ancestry. Range expansion of northern taxa leading to southerly gene movement into populations formerly C. maculata, would account for this apparent instance of chloroplast capture. Two subpopulations were identified in C. maculata, a northern population of which the Ourimbah locality was the most southerly studied, and a southern population of which Wingello was the most northerly locality studied. Diminished levels of northern taxa ancestry, i.e. C. citriodora or C. henryi, in individuals from the southern, relative to the northern subpopulation of C. maculata, suggested that secondary contact with northern taxa contributes to its substructure.

Multi-trait assessment of early-in-life female, male and genomic measures for use in genetic selection to improve female reproductive performance of Brahman cattle

Early-in-life female and male measures with potential to be practical genetic indicators were chosen from earlier analyses and examined together with genomic measures for multi-trait use to improve female reproduction of Brahman cattle. Combinations of measures were evaluated on the genetic gains expected from selection of sires and dams for each of age at puberty (AGECL, i.e. first observation of a corpus luteum), lactation anoestrous interval in 3-year-old cows (LAI), and lifetime annual weaning rate (LAWR, i.e. the weaning rate of cows based on the number of annual matings they experienced over six possible matings). Selection was on an index of comparable records for each combination. Selection intensities were less than theoretically possible but assumed a concerted selection effort was able to be made across the Brahman breed. The results suggested that substantial genetic gains could be possible but need to be confirmed in other data. The estimated increase in LAWR in 10 years, for combinations without or with genomic measures, ranged from 8 to 12 calves weaned per 100 cows from selection of sires, and from 12 to 15 calves weaned per 100 cows from selection of sires and dams. Corresponding reductions in LAI were 60-103 days or 94-136 days, and those for AGECL were 95-125 or 141-176 days, respectively. Coat score (a measure of the sleekness or wooliness of the coat) and hip height in females, and preputial eversion and liveweight in males, were measures that may warrant wider recording for Brahman female reproduction genetic evaluation. Pregnancy-test outcomes from Matings 1 and 2 also should be recorded. Percentage normal sperm may be important to record for reducing LAI and scrotal size and serum insulin-like growth factor-I concentration in heifers at 18 months for reducing AGECL. Use of a genomic estimated breeding value (EBV) in combination with other measures added to genetic gains, especially at genomic EBV accuracies of 40%. Accuracies of genomic EBVs needed to approach 60% for the genomic EBV to be the most important contributor to gains in the combinations of measures studied.

Regulating supply chains to protect road transport workers: An early assessment of the road safety remuneration tribunal

The Road Safety Remuneration Act 2012 (Cth) (the Act) explicitly enables the Road Safety Remuneration Tribunal to make orders that can impose binding requirements on all the participants in the road transport supply chain, including consignors and consignees at the apex the chain, for the pay and safety of both employee and independent contractor drivers. The tribunal is also specifically empowered to make enforceable orders to reduce or remove remuneration related incentives and pressures that contribute to unsafe work practices in the road transport industry. Recently the tribunal handed down its first order. The article considers whether, and the degree to which, the tribunal has been willing to exercise its explicit power to impose enforceable obligations on consignors and consignees — such as large supermarket chains — at the apex of road transport supply chains. It examines the substance and extent of the obligations imposed by the tribunal, including whether the tribunal has exercised the full range of powers vested in it by the Act. We contend that the tribunal’s first order primarily imposes obligations on direct work providers and drivers without making large, powerful consignors and consignees substantively responsible for driver pay and safety. We argue that the tribunal’s first order could have more comprehensively fulfilled the objectives of the Act by more directly addressing the root causes of low pay and poor safety in the road transport industry.

Differences in parent regulation beliefs and maternal postnatal depressive symptoms in early weeks

Postnatal depression is consistently associated with couple relationship qualities. Substantial infant care requirements in early weeks may highlight differences in parenting beliefs between mother and father. We calculated difference scores in parenting beliefs (disparity) in a community sample of 209 parent dyads. Contrary to previous research regarding ‘disagreement’ which could be interpreted as discord, independently measured disparity was not associated with maternal depressive symptoms. Coparenting interventions should promote respectful negotiation rather than resolution of differences.