Stochastic Search Variable Selection in Vector Error Correction Models with an Application to a Model of the UK Macroeconomy

This paper develops methods for Stochastic Search Variable Selection (currently popular with regression and Vector Autoregressive models) for Vector Error Correction models where there are many possible restrictions on the cointegration space. We show how this allows the researcher to begin with a single unrestricted model and either do model selection or model averaging in an automatic and computationally efficient manner. We apply our methods to a large UK macroeconomic model.

Computation of an integral basis of a quartic number field

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Handling the endogeneity of income to health using a field experiment in Taiwan

This paper uses an exogenous increase in income for a specific sub-group in Taiwan to explore the extent to which higher income leads to higher levels of health and wellbeing. In 1995, the Taiwanese government implemented the Senior Farmer Welfare Benefit Interim Regulation (SFWBIR) which was a pure cash injection, approximately US$110 (£70) per month in 1996, to senior farmers. A Difference-in-differences (DiD) approach is used on survey data from the Taiwanese Health and Living Status of Elderly in 1989 and 1996 to evaluate the short term effect of the SFWBIR on self-assessed health, depression, and life satisfaction. Senior manufacturing workers are employed as a comparison group for the senior farmers in the natural experiment because their demographic backgrounds are similar. This paper provides evidence that the increase in income from the SFWBIR significantly improved the mental health of senior farmers by reducing the scale of depression (CES-D) by 1.718, however, it had no significant short term impact on self-assessed health or life satisfaction.

Biological control of Biomphalaria tenagophila (Mollusca, Planorbidae), a schistosomiasis vector, using the fish Geophagus brasiliensis (Pisces, Cichlidae) in the laboratory or in a seminatural environment

In order to investigate a possible method of biological control of schistosomiasis, we used the fish Geophagus brasiliensis (Quoy & Gaimard, 1824) which is widely distributed throughout Brazil, to interrupt the life cycle of the snail Biomphalaria tenagophila (Orbigny, 1835), an intermediate host of Schistosoma mansoni. In the laboratory, predation eliminated 97.6% of the smaller snails (3-8 mm shell diameter) and 9.2% of the larger ones (12-14 mm shell diameter). Very promising results were also obtained in a seminatural environment. Studies of this fish in natural snail habitats should be further encouraged.

Strong exceptional sequences of vector bundles on certain Fano varieties

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Computation of an integral basis of quartic number field

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Changing Eating Habits - A Field Experiment in Primary Schools

We conduct a field experiment in 31 primary schools in England to test whether incentives to eat fruit and vegetables help children develop healthier habits. The intervention consists of rewarding children with stickers and little gifts for a period of four weeks for choosing a portion of fruit and vegetables at lunch. We compare the effects of two incentive schemes (competition and piece rate) on choices and consumption over the course of the intervention as well as once the incentives are removed and six months later. We find that the intervention had positive effects, but the effects vary substantially according to age and gender. However, we find little evidence of sustained long term effects, except for the children from poorer socio‐economic backgrounds.

Observations on the distribution of anophelines in Suriname with particular reference to the malaria vector Anopheles darlingi

A study was made on the distribution of anophelines in Suriname with special emphasis on the principal malaria vector Anopheles darlingi and on the occurrence of other possible vector species. Peridomestic human bait collections of adult mosquitoes and collections of larvae were made in many localities with a recent history of malaria transmission. Stable population of An. darlingi were only found in the interior, south of the limit of tidal influence, due to year-round availability of breeding habitats in quietly sunlit places in flooded forest areas and along river banks. In the area with tidal movement of the rivers, breeding is limited to flooded areas in the west season. Anopheles darlingi was only incidentally collected in low densities. In the interior, malaria transmission occurred in all places where An. darlingi was found. The absence of malaria transmission along the Upper Suriname River could be explained by the absence of An. darlingi. In the malaria endemic areas, An darlingi was the most numerous mosquito biting on man. In the tidal region, malaria outbreak are infrequent and might be explained by the temporary availability of favourable beeding habitats for An. darlingi. However, evidence is insufficient to incriminate an. darlingi as the vector of malaria in this region and the possible vectorial role of other anophelines is discussed.

The Spillover Effects of Monitoring: A Field Experiment.

We provide field experimental evidence of the effects of monitoring in a context where productivity is multi-dimensional and only one dimension is monitored and incentivised. We hire students to do a job for us. The job consists of identifying euro coins. We study the effects of monitoring and penalising mistakes on work quality, and evaluate spillovers on non- incentivised dimensions of productivity (punctuality and theft). We .nd that monitoring improves work quality only if incentives are large, but reduces punctuality substantially irrespectively of the size of incentives. Monitoring does not affect theft, with ten per cent of participants stealing overall. Our setting also allows us to disentangle between possible theoretical mechanisms driving the adverse effects of monitoring. Our .ndings are supportive of a reciprocity mechanism, whereby workers retaliate for being distrusted.

Methods for field detection of resistance to temephos in simuliids. Larval esterase level and topical application of the insecticide to adults

Two practical field methods for indirect detection of simuliid populations resistant to temephos are proposed. The first is based on high esterase activity in resistant larvae and involves adaptations of a filter paper test in which faintly stained spots indicate susceptible populations and strongly stained ones reveal populations resistant to temephos. The second is based on the resistance to the larvicide when adults are topically exposed, and involves the use of diagnostic doses obtained by the comparison between the LD50 for susceptible and resistant populations. The relevance of such methods is discussed in order to help resistance detection in Simulium pertinax Kollar control programmes.

Potential schistosome-vector snails and associated trematodes in ricefields of Corrients province, Argentina: preliminary results

Considering the possibility of introduction of schistosomiasis mansoni into Argentina as a consequence of dam construction on the Rio De La Plata basin, preliminary studies have been carried out on agrosystems such as ricefields in Corrientes province with the following purposes: 1) to survey and estimate the relative abundance of planorbids and identify potential vector species; 2) to identify environmental factors capable of influencing Biomphalaria population dynamics; and 3) to find out snail-parasite associations and estimate snail infection rates in order to detect possible competitive interactions between larval stages of native trematodes that could be used in biological control of Schistosoma mansoni. Three potential schistosome vectors were detected in ricefields, namely Biomphalaria straminea, B. tenagophila and B. peregrina, although B. orbignyi, a species refractory to infection with S. mansoni, proved the most frequent and abundant. Positive correlations (P<0.05) were found between Biomphalaria abundance and some environmental parameters: conductivity, hardness, calcium, nitrites plus nitrates, ammonium and bicarbonates. Water temperature correlation was negative (P<0.05). No correlation (P>0.05) was found in total iron, phosphates (SRP), pH and soil granulometry. Echinocercariae developed from rediae and belonging to Petasiger sp., Paryphostomum sp., and other undetermined species were found.

Partner Selection into Policy Relevant Field Experiments

This study investigates the issue of self-selection of stakeholders into participation and collaboration in policy-relevant experiments. We document and test the implications of self-selection in the context of randomised policy experiment we conducted in primary schools in the UK. The main questions we ask are (1) is there evidence of selection on key observable characteristics likely to matter for the outcome of interest and (2) does selection matter for the estimates of treatment eff ects. The experimental work consists in testing the e ffects of an intervention aimed at encouraging children to make more healthy choices at lunch. We recruited schools through local authorities and randomised schools across two incentive treatments and a control group. We document the selection taking place both at the level of local authorities and at the school level. Overall we nd mild evidence of selection on key observables such as obesity levels and socio-economic characteristics. We find evidence of selection along indicators of involvement in healthy lifestyle programmes at the school level, but the magnitude is small. Moreover, We do not find signifi cant di erences in the treatment e ffects of the experiment between variables which, albeit to a mild degree, are correlated with selection into the experiment. To our knowledge, this is the rst study providing direct evidence on the magnitude of self-selection in fi eld experiments.

Preliminary laboratory and field trials of a heated pheromone trap for the sandfly lutzomyia logipalpis (Diptera: Psychodidae)

A heated pheromone trap for the sandfly Lutzomyia longipalpis was tested in the laboratory using filter paper or plastic vial dispensers. Male pheromone extracted from 8 male tergal glands and absorbed on to filter paper dispensers attracted 82/120 (68.3%) of virgin females released in cages. Similarly plastic vial dispensers baited with the extract of 24 males caught 73/120 (61%). In field trials carried out near januária, Minas Gerais, Brazil using the plastic dispensers baited with extracts of 50 male tergal glands only 70 female L. longipalpis were captured. Over 1000 male flies were, however, caught during 6 nights, with greater numbers in the unbaited control traps than in the pheromone baited test traps. It is concluded that at excessive concentrations male L. longipalpis pheromone may act as a repellent to conspecific males.

Data-based priors for vector autoregressions with drifting coefficients

This paper proposes full-Bayes priors for time-varying parameter vector autoregressions (TVP-VARs) which are more robust and objective than existing choices proposed in the literature. We formulate the priors in a way that they allow for straightforward posterior computation, they require minimal input by the user, and they result in shrinkage posterior representations, thus, making them appropriate for models of large dimensions. A comprehensive forecasting exercise involving TVP-VARs of different dimensions establishes the usefulness of the proposed approach.