Projecting marine fish production and catch potential in Bangladesh in the 21st century under long-term environmental change and management scenarios

The fisheries sector is crucial to the Bangladeshi economy and wellbeing, accounting for 4.4% of national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 22.8% of agriculture sector production, and supplying ca.60% of the national animal protein intake. Fish is vital to the 16 million Bangladeshis living near the coast, a number that has doubled since the 1980s. Here we develop and apply tools to project the long term productive capacity of Bangladesh marine fisheries under climate and fisheries management scenarios, based on downscaling a global climate model, using associated river flow and nutrient loading estimates, projecting high resolution changes in physical and biochemical ocean properties, and eventually projecting fish production and catch potential under different fishing mortality targets. We place particular interest on Hilsa shad (Tenualosa ilisha), which accounts for ca.11% of total catches, and Bombay duck (Harpadon nehereus), a low price fish that is the second highest catch in Bangladesh and is highly consumed by low income communities. It is concluded that the impacts of climate change, under greenhouse emissions scenario A1B, are likely to reduce the potential fish production in the Bangladesh Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) by less than 10%. However, these impacts are larger for the two target species. Under sustainable management practices we expect Hilsa shad catches to show a minor decline in potential catch by 2030 but a significant (25%) decline by 2060. However, if overexploitation is allowed catches are projected to fall much further, by almost 95% by 2060, compared to the Business as Usual scenario for the start of the 21st century. For Bombay duck, potential catches by 2060 under sustainable scenarios will produce a decline of less than 20% compared to current catches. The results demonstrate that management can mitigate or exacerbate the effects of climate change on ecosystem productivity.

Defining scenarios of future vectors of change in marine life and associated economic sectors

Addressing the multitude of challenges in marine policy requires an integrated approach that considers the multitude of drivers, pressures, and interests, from several disciplinary angles. Scenarios are needed to harmonise the analyses of different components of the marine system, and to deal with the uncertainty and complexity of the societal and biogeophysical dynamics in the system. This study considers a set of socio-economic scenarios to (1) explore possible futures in relation to marine invasive species, outbreak forming species, and gradual changes in species distribution and productivity; and (2) harmonise the projection modelling performed within associated studies. The exercise demonstrates that developing interdisciplinary scenarios as developed in this study is particularly complicated due to (1) the wide variety in endogeneity or exogeneity of variables in the different analyses involved; (2) the dual role of policy decisions as variables in a scenario or decisions to be evaluated and compared to other decisions; and (3) the substantial difference in time scale between societal and physical drivers.

Quantitative pathways for Northeast Atlantic fisheries based on climate, ecological–economic and governance modelling scenarios

Here we present quantitative projections of potential futures for ecosystems in the North Atlantic basin generated from coupling a climate change-driven biophysical model (representing ecosystem and fish populations under climate change) and a scenario-driven ecological–economic model (representing fleets and industries under economic globalization). Four contrasting scenarios (Baseline, Fortress, Global Commons, Free Trade) were defined from the perspective of alternative regional management and governance of the oceanic basin, providing pathways for the future of ecosystems in the Northeast Atlantic basin by 2040. Results indicate that in the time frame considered: (1) the effects of governance and trade decisions are more significant in determining outcomes than the effects of climate change alone, (2) climate change is likely to result in a poleward latitudinal shift of species ranges and thus resources, with implications for exploitation patterns, (3) the level of fisheries regulation is the most important factor in determining the long term evolution of the fisheries system, (4) coupling climate change and governance impacts demonstrates the complex interaction between different components of this social–ecological system, (5) an important driver of change for the future of the North Atlantic and the European fishing fleets appears to be the interplay between wild fisheries and aquaculture development, and finally (6) scenarios demonstrate that the viability and profit of fisheries industries is highly volatile. This study highlights the need to explore basin-scale policy that combines medium to long-term environmental and socio-economic considerations, and the importance of defining alternative sustainable pathways.

Interaction of glucose and long chain fatty acids (C18) on antioxidant defences and free radical damage in porcine vascular smooth muscle cells in vitro.

Aims/hypothesis: Abnormalities of glucose and fatty acid metabolism in diabetes are believed to contribute to the development of oxidative stress and the long term vascular complications of the disease therefore the interactions of glucose and long chain fatty acids on free radical damage and endogenous antioxidant defences were investigated in vascular smooth muscle cells. Methods: Porcine vascular smooth muscle cells were cultured in 5 mmol/l or 25 mmol/l glucose for ten days. Fatty acids, stearic acid (18:0), oleic acid (18:1), linoleic acid (18:2) and gamma-linolenic acid (18:3) were added with defatted bovine serum albumin as a carrier for the final three days. Results. Glucose (25 mmol/l) alone caused oxidative stress in the cells as evidenced by free radical-mediated damage to DNA, lipids, and proteins. The addition of fatty acids (0.2 mmol/l) altered the profile of free radical damage; the response was J-shaped with respect to the degree of unsaturation of each acid, and oleic acid was associated with least damage. The more physiological concentration (0.01 mmol/l) of gamma-linolenic acids was markedly different in that, when added to 25 mmol/l glucose it resulted in a decrease in free radical damage to DNA, lipids and proteins. This was due to a marked increase in levels of the antioxidant, glutathione, and increased gene expression of the rate-limiting enzyme in glutathione synthesis, gamma-glutamylcysteine synthetase. Conclusion/Interpretation: The results clearly show that glucose and fatty acids interact in the production of oxidative stress in vascular smooth muscle cells.

Synthesis of N3- and 2-NH2-substituted 6,7-diphenylpterins and their use as intermediates for the preparation of oligonucleotide conjugates designed to target photooxidative damage on single-stranded DNA representing the bcr-abl chimeric gene

Two 17-mer oligodeoxynucleotide-5'-linked-(6,7-diphenylpterin) conjugates, 2 and 3, were prepared as photosensitisers for targeting photooxidative damage to a 34-mer DNA oligodeoxynucleotide (ODN) fragment 1 representing the chimeric bcr-abl gene that is implicated in the pathogenesis of chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML). The base sequence in the 17-mer was 3'G G T A G T T A T T C C T T C T T5'. In the first of these ODN conjugates (2) the pterin was attached at its N3 atom, via a -(CH2)3OPO(OH)- linker, to the 5'-OH group of the ODN. Conjugate 2 was prepared from 2-amino-3-(3-hydroxypropyl)-6,7-diphenyl-4(3H)-pteridinone 10, using phosphoramidite methodology. Starting material 10 was prepared from 5-amino-7-methylthiofurazano[3,4-d]pyrimidine 4 via an unusual highly resonance stabilised cation 8, incorporating the rare 2H,6H-pyrimido[6,1-b][1,3]oxazine ring system. In the characterisation of 10 two pteridine phosphazenes, 15 and 29, were obtained, as well as new products containing two uncommon tricyclic ring systems, namely pyrimido[2,1-b]pteridine (20 and 24) and pyrimido[1,2-c]pteridine (27). In the second ODN conjugate the linker was -(CH2)5CONH(CH2)6OPO(OH)- and was attached to the 2-amino group of the pterin. In the preparation of 3, the N-hydroxysuccinimide ester 37 of 2-(5-carboxypentylamino)-6,7-diphenyl-4(3H)-pteridinone was condensed with the hexylamino-modified 17-mer. Excitation of 36 with near UV light in the presence of the single-stranded target 34-mer, 5'T G A C C A T C A A T A A G14 G A A G18 A A G21 C C C T T C A G C G G C C3' 1 caused oxidative damage at guanine bases, leading to alkali-labile sites which were monitored by polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis. Cleavage was observed at all guanine sites with a marked preference for cleavage at G14. In contrast, excitation of ODN-pteridine conjugate 2 in the presence of 1 caused oxidation of the latter predominantly at G18, with a smaller extent of cleavage at G15 and G14 (in the double-stranded portion) and G21. These results contrast with our previous observation of specific cleavage at G21 with ruthenium polypyridyl sensitisers, and suggest that a different mechanism, probably one involving Type 1 photochemical electron transfer, is operative. Much lower yields were found with the ODN-pteridine conjugate 3, perhaps as a consequence of the longer linker between the ODN and the pteridine in this case.

BRCA1 and c-Myc Associate to Transcriptionally Repress Psoriasin, a DNA Damage-Inducible Gene

Evidence is accumulating to suggest that some of the diverse functions associated with BRCA1 may relate to its ability to transcriptionally regulate key downstream target genes. Here, we identify S100A7 (psoriasin), S100A8, and S100A9, members of the S100A family of calcium-binding proteins, as novel BRCA1-repressed targets. We show that functional BRCA1 is required for repression of these family members and that a BRCA1 disease–associated mutation abrogates BRCA1-mediated repression of psoriasin. Furthermore, we show that BRCA1 and c-Myc form a complex on the psoriasin promoter and that BRCA1-mediated repression of psoriasin is dependent on functional c-Myc. Finally, we show that psoriasin expression is induced by the topoisomerase IIA poison, etoposide, in the absence of functional BRCA1 and increased psoriasin expression enhances cellular sensitivity to this chemotherapeutic agent. Therefore, we identified a novel transcriptional mechanism that is likely to contribute to BRCA1-mediated resistance to etoposide.