Infusing the use of seasonal climate forecasting into crop management practice in North East Australia using discussion support software

Seasonal climate forecasting offers potential for improving management of crop production risks in the cropping systems of NE Australia. But how is this capability best connected to management practice? Over the past decade, we have pursued participative systems approaches involving simulation-aided discussion with advisers and decision-makers. This has led to the development of discussion support software as a key vehicle for facilitating infusion of forecasting capability into practice. In this paper, we set out the basis of our approach, its implementation and preliminary evaluation. We outline the development of the discussion support software Whopper Cropper, which was designed for, and in close consultation with, public and private advisers. Whopper Cropper consists of a database of simulation output and a graphical user interface to generate analyses of risks associated with crop management options. The charts produced provide conversation pieces for advisers to use with their farmer clients in relation to the significant decisions they face. An example application, detail of the software development process and an initial survey of user needs are presented. We suggest that discussion support software is about moving beyond traditional notions of supply-driven decision support systems. Discussion support software is largely demand-driven and can compliment participatory action research programs by providing cost-effective general delivery of simulation-aided discussions about relevant management actions. The critical role of farm management advisers and dialogue among key players is highlighted. We argue that the discussion support concept, as exemplified by the software tool Whopper Cropper and the group processes surrounding it, provides an effective means to infuse innovations, like seasonal climate forecasting, into farming practice. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatial and temporal patterns in Australian wheat yield and their relationship with ENSO

Spatial and temporal variability in wheat production in Australia is dominated by rainfall occurrence. The length of historical production records is inadequate, however, to analyse spatial and temporal patterns conclusively. In this study we used modelling and simulation to identify key spatial patterns in Australian wheat yield, identify groups of years in the historical record in which spatial patterns were similar, and examine association of those wheat yield year groups with indicators of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). A simple stress index model was trained on 19 years of Australian Bureau of Statistics shire yield data (1975-93). The model was then used to simulate shire yield from 1901 to 1999 for all wheat-producing shires. Principal components analysis was used to determine the dominating spatial relationships in wheat yield among shires. Six major components of spatial variability were found. Five of these represented near spatially independent zones across the Australian wheatbelt that demonstrated coherent temporal (annual) variability in wheat yield. A second orthogonal component was required to explain the temporal variation in New South Wales. The principal component scores were used to identify high- and low-yielding years in each zone. Year type groupings identified in this way were tested for association with indicators of ENSO. Significant associations were found for all zones in the Australian wheatbelt. Associations were as strong or stronger when ENSO indicators preceding the wheat season (April-May phases of the Southern Oscillation Index) were used rather than indicators based on classification during the wheat season. Although this association suggests an obvious role for seasonal climate forecasting in national wheat crop forecasting, the discriminatory power of the ENSO indicators, although significant, was not strong. By examining the historical years forming the wheat yield analog sets within each zone, it may be possible to identify novel climate system or ocean-atmosphere features that may be causal and, hence, most useful in improving seasonal forecasting schemes.

Tracing the fate of N-15-enriched feed in an intensive shrimp system

The fate of N-15-nitrogen-enriched formulated feed fed to shrimp was traced through the food web in shallow, outdoor tank systems (1000 1) stocked with shrimp. Triplicate tanks containing shrimp water with and without sediment were used to identify the role of the natural biota in the water column and sediment in processing dietary nitrogen (N). A preliminary experiment demonstrated that N-15-nitrogen-enriched feed products could be detected in the food web. Based on this, a 15-day experiment was conducted. The ammonium (NH4+) pool in the water column became rapidly enriched (within one day) with N-15-nitrogen after shrimp were fed N-15-enriched feed. By day 15, 6% of the added N-15-nitrogen was in this fraction in the 'sediment' tanks compared with 0.4% in the 'no sediment' tanks. The particulate fraction in the water column, principally autotrophic nanoflagellates, accounted for 4-5% of the N-15-nitrogen fed to shrimp after one day. This increased to 16% in the 'no sediment' treatment, and decreased to 2% in the 'sediment' treatment by day 15. It appears that dietary N was more accessible to the phytoplankton community in the absence of sediment. The difference is possibly because a proportion of the dietary N was buried in the sediment in the 'sediment' treatment, making it unavailable to the phytoplankton. Alternatively, the dietary N was retained in the NH4+ pool in the water column since phytoplankton growth, and hence, N utilization was lower in the 'sediment' treatment. The lower growth of phytoplankton in the 'sediment' treatment appeared to be related to higher turbidity, and hence, lower light availability for growth. The percentage N-15-nitrogen detected in the sediment was only 6% despite the high capacity for sedimentation of the large biomass of plankton detritus and shrimp waste. This suggests rapid remineralization of organic waste by the microbial community in the sediment resulting in diffusion of inorganic N sources into the water column. It is likely that most of the dietary N will ultimately be removed from the tank system by water discharges. Our study showed that N-15-nitrogen derived from aquaculture feed can be processed by the microbial community in outdoor aquaculture systems and provides a method for determining the effect of dietary N on ecosystems. However, a significant amount of the dietary N was not retained by the natural biota and is likely to be present in the soluble organic fraction. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Binder treatment and lubricant system for aluminium P/M

Organic binders are used in premixes for powder metallurgy applications to prevent dusting and segregation. This is a particular problem for aluminium powder metallurgy because the dust is a potential safety hazard. The binder must also burn out completely at low temperatures in an inert environment and not react with the metal powders. It is demonstrated that cellulose acetate, polyvinyl acetate and polyvinyl alcohol are effective dedusting agents but they react with the metal powders during sintering and decrease the sintered density. Paraffin wan is an effect dedusting agent that provided die wall lubricity, does not interfere with sintering and increases tensile strength and ductility.

Lipoamino acid-based adjuvant carrier system: Enhanced immunogenicity of group a streptococcal peptide epitopes

Lipoamino acid-based synthetic peptides (lipid core peptides, LCP) derived from the type-specific and conserved region determinants of group A streptococci (GAS) were evaluated as potential candidate sequences in a vaccine to prevent GAS-associated diseases, including rheumatic heart, disease and poststreptococcal acute glomerulonephritis. The LCP peptides had significantly enhanced immunogenicity as compared with the monomeric peptide epitopes. Furthermore, the peptides incorporated into the LCP system generated epitope-specific antibodies without the use of any conventional adjuvant.

The GP problem: quantifying gene-to-phenotype relationships

In this paper we refer to the gene-to-phenotype modeling challenge as the GP problem. Integrating information across levels of organization within a genotype-environment system is a major challenge in computational biology. However, resolving the GP problem is a fundamental requirement if we are to understand and predict phenotypes given knowledge of the genome and model dynamic properties of biological systems. Organisms are consequences of this integration, and it is a major property of biological systems that underlies the responses we observe. We discuss the E(NK) model as a framework for investigation of the GP problem and the prediction of system properties at different levels of organization. We apply this quantitative framework to an investigation of the processes involved in genetic improvement of plants for agriculture. In our analysis, N genes determine the genetic variation for a set of traits that are responsible for plant adaptation to E environment-types within a target population of environments. The N genes can interact in epistatic NK gene-networks through the way that they influence plant growth and development processes within a dynamic crop growth model. We use a sorghum crop growth model, available within the APSIM agricultural production systems simulation model, to integrate the gene-environment interactions that occur during growth and development and to predict genotype-to-phenotype relationships for a given E(NK) model. Directional selection is then applied to the population of genotypes, based on their predicted phenotypes, to simulate the dynamic aspects of genetic improvement by a plant-breeding program. The outcomes of the simulated breeding are evaluated across cycles of selection in terms of the changes in allele frequencies for the N genes and the genotypic and phenotypic values of the populations of genotypes.

Parallel simulation system for earthquake generation: Fault analysis modules and parallel coupling analysis

Solid earth simulations have recently been developed to address issues such as natural disasters, global environmental destruction and the conservation of natural resources. The simulation of solid earth phenomena involves the analysis of complex structures including strata, faults, and heterogeneous material properties. Simulation of the generation and cycle of earthquakes is particularly important, but such simulations require the analysis of complex fault dynamics. GeoFEM is a parallel finite-element analysis system intended for solid earth field phenomena problems. This paper describes recent development in the GeoFEM project for the simulation of earthquake generation and cycles.

The Three-dimensional Solution Structure of NaD1, a New Floral Defensin from Nicotiana alata and its Application to a Homology Model of the Crop Defense Protein alfAFP

NMR spectroscopy and simulated annealing calculations have been used to determine the three-dimensional structure of NaD1, a novel antifungal and insecticidal protein isolated from the flowers of Nicotiana alata. NaD1 is a basic, cysteine-rich protein of 47 residues and is the first example of a plant defensin from flowers to be characterized structurally. Its three-dimensional structure consists of an a-helix and a triple-stranded anti-parallel beta-sheet that are stabilized by four intramolecular disulfide bonds. NaD1 features all the characteristics of the cysteine-stabilized up motif that has been described for a variety of proteins of differing functions ranging from antibacterial insect defensins and ion channel-perturbing scorpion toxins to an elicitor of the sweet taste response. The protein is biologically active against insect pests, which makes it a potential candidate for use in crop protection. NaD1 shares 31% sequence identity with alfAFP, an antifungal protein from alfalfa that confers resistance to a fungal pathogen in transgenic potatoes. The structure of NaD1 was used to obtain a homology model of alfAFP, since NaD1 has the highest level of sequence identity with alfAFP of any structurally characterized antifungal defensin. The structures of NaD1 and alfAFP were used in conjunction with structure - activity data for the radish defensin Rs-AFP2 to provide an insight into structure-function relationships. In particular, a putative effector site was identified in the structure of NaD1 and in the corresponding homology model of alfAFP. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Control of Aedes vectors of dengue in three provinces of Vietnam by use of Mesocyclops (Copepoda) and community-based methods validated by entomologic, clinical, and serological surveillance

We describe remarkable success in controlling dengue vectors, Aedes aegypti (L.) and Aedes albopictus (Skuse), in 6 communes with 11,675 households and 49,647 people in the northern provinces of Haiphong, Hung Yen, and Nam Dinh in Vietnam. The communes were selected for high-frequency use of large outdoor concrete tanks and wells. These were found to be the source of 49.6-98.4% of Ae. aegypti larvae, which were amenable to treatment with local Mesocyclops, mainly M. woutersi Van der Velde, M. aspericornis (Daday) and M. thermocyclopoides Harada. Knowledge, attitude, and practice surveys were performed to determine whether the communities viewed dengue and dengue hemorrhagic fever as a serious health threat; to determine their knowledge of the etiology, attitudes, and practices regarding control methods including Mesocyclops; and to determine their receptivity to various information methods. On the basis of the knowledge, attitude, and practice data, the community-based dengue control program comprised a system of local leaders, health volunteer teachers, and schoolchildren, supported by health professionals. Recycling of discards for economic gain was enhanced, where appropriate, and this, plus 37 clean-up campaigns, removed small containers unsuitable for Mesocyclops treatment. A previously successful eradication at Phan Boi village (Hung Yen province) was extended to 7 other villages forming Di Su commune (1,750 households) in the current study. Complete control was also achieved in Nghia Hiep (Hung Yen province) and in Xuan Phong (Nam Dinh province); control efficacy was greater than or equal to 99.7% in the other 3 communes (Lac Vien in Haiphong, Nghia Dong, and Xuan Kien in Nam Dinh). Although tanks and wells were the key container types of Ae. aegypti productivity, discarded materials were the source of 51% of the standing crop of Ae. albopictus. Aedes albopictus larvae were eliminated from the 3 Nam Dinh communes, and 86-98% control was achieved in the other 3 communes. Variable dengue attack rates made the clinical and serological comparison of control and untreated communes problematic, but these data indicate that clinical surveillance by itself is inadequate to monitor dengue transmission.

The therapeutic potential of endothelin-1 receptor antagonists and endothelin-converting enzyme inhibitors on the cardiovascular system

Clinical trials have established bosentan, an orally active non-selective endothelin (ET) receptor antagonist, as a beneficial treatment in pulmonary hypertension. Trials have also shown short-term benefits of bosentan in systemic hypertension and congestive heart failure. However, bosentan also increased plasma levels of ET-1, probably by inhibiting the clearance of ET-1 by endothelin type B (ET.) receptors, and this may mean its effectiveness is reduced with long-term clinical use. Preliminary data suggests that selective endothelin type A (ETA) receptor antagonists (BQ-123, sitaxsentan) may be more beneficial than the non-selective ET receptor antagonists in heart failure, especially when the failure is associated with pulmonary hypertension. Experimental evidence in animal disease models suggests that non-selective ET or selective ETA receptor antagonism may have a role in the treatment of athero-sclerosis, restenosis, myocarditis, shock and portal hypertension. In animal models of myocardial infarction and/or reperfusion injury, non-selective ET or selective ETA receptor antagonists have beneficial or detrimental effects depending on the conditions and agents used. Thus clinical trials of the nonselective ET or selective ETA receptor antagonists in these conditions are not presently warranted. Several selective endothelin-converting enzyme inhibitors tors have been synthesised recently, and these are only beginning to be tested in animal models of cardiovascular disease, and thus the clinical potential of these inhibitors is still to be defined.

The mononuclear phagocyte system revisited

The mononuclear phagocyte system (MPS) was defined as a family of cells comprising bone marrow progenitors, blood monocytes, and tissue macrophages. In this review, we briefly consider markers for cells of this lineage in the mouse, especially the F4/80 surface antigen and the receptor for macrophage colony-stimulating factor. The concept of the MPS is challenged by evidence that there is a separate embryonic phagocyte lineage, the blurring of the boundaries between macrophages and other cells types arising from phenotypic plasticity and transdifferentiation, and evidence of local renewal of tissue macrophage populations as opposed to monocyte recruitment. Nevertheless, there is a unity to cells of the MPS suggested by their location, morphology, and shared markers. We discuss the origins of macrophage heterogeneity and argue that macrophages and antigen-representing dendritic cells are closely related and part of the MPS.

The embryonic development of the bodywall and nervous system of the cestode flatworm Hymenolepis diminuta

Cestodes (tapeworms) are a derived, parasitic clade of the phylum Platyhelminthes (flatworms). The cestode body wall represents an adaptation to its endoparasitic lifestyle. The epidermis forms a nonciliated syncytium, and both muscular and nervous system are reduced. Morphological differences between cestodes and free-living flatworms become apparent already during early embryogenesis. Cestodes have a complex life cycle that begins with an infectious larva, called the oncosphere. In regard to cell number, cestode oncospheres are among the simplest multicellular organisms, containing in the order of 50-100 cells. As part of our continuing effort to analyze embryonic development in flatworms, we describe here the staining pattern obtained with acTub in embryos and larvae of the cestode Hymenolepis diminuta and, briefly, the monogenean Neoheterocotyle rhinobatidis. In addition, we labeled the embryonic musculature of Hymenolepis with phalloidin. In Hymenolepis embryos, two different cell types that we interpret as neurons and epidermal gland cells express acTub. There exist only two neurons that develop close to the midline at the anterior pole of the embryo. The axons of these two neurons project posteriorly into the center of the oncosphere, where they innervate the complex of muscles that is attached to the booklets. In addition to neurons, acTub labels a small and invariant set of epidermal gland cells that develop at superficial positions, anteriorly adjacent to the neurons, in the dorsal midline, and around the posteriorly located hooklets. During late stages of embryogenesis they spread and form a complete covering of the embryo. We discuss these data in the broader context of platyhelminth embryology.

Development of motor system dysfunction following whiplash injury

Dysfunction in the motor system is a feature of persistent whiplash associated disorders. Little is known about motor dysfunction in the early stages following injury and of its progress in those persons who recover and those who develop persistent symptoms. This study measured prospectively, motor system function (cervical range of movement (ROM), joint position error (JPE) and activity of the superficial neck flexors (EMG) during a test of cranio-cervical flexion) as well as a measure of fear of re-injury (TAMPA) in 66 whiplash subjects within 1 month of injury and then 2 and 3 months post injury. Subjects were classified at 3 months post injury using scores on the neck disability index: recovered (30). Motor system function was also measured in 20 control subjects. All whiplash groups demonstrated decreased ROM and increased EMG (compared to controls) at 1 month post injury. This deficit persisted in the group with moderate/severe symptoms but returned to within normal limits in those who had recovered or reported persistent mild pain at 3 months. Increased EMG persisted for 3 months in all whiplash groups. Only the moderate/severe group showed greater JPE, within 1 month of injury, which remained unchanged at 3 months. TAMPA scores of the moderate/severe group were higher than those of the other two groups. The differences in TAMPA did not impact on ROM, EMG or JPE. This study identifies, for the first time, deficits in the motor system, as early as 1 month post whiplash injury, that persisted not only in those reporting moderate/severe symptoms at 3 months but also in subjects who recovered and those with persistent mild symptoms. (C) 2002 International Association for the Study of Pain. Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Measuring range of active cervical rotation in a position of full head flexion using the 3D Fastrak measurement system: an intra-tester reliability study

Most external assessments of cervical range of motion assess the upper and lower cervical regions simultaneously. This study investigated the within and between days reliability of the clinical method used to bias this movement to the upper cervical region, namely measuring rotation of the head and neck in a position of full cervical flexion. Measurements were made using the Fastrak measurement system and were conducted by one operator. Results indicated high levels of within and between days repeatability (range of ICC2,1 values: 0.85-0.95). The ranges of axial rotation to right and left, measured with the neck positioned in full flexion, were approximately 56% and 50%, respectively of total cervical rotation, which relates well to the proportional division of rotation in the upper and lower cervical regions. These results suggest that this method of measuring rotation would be appropriate for use in subject studies where movement dysfunction is present in the upper cervical region, such as those with cervicogenic headache. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.