Buenas intenciones y efectos perversos. Los límites del reformismo institucional en Colombia y Venezuela (Otros Temas)

Este artículo analiza las reformas institucionales emprendidas por Colombia y Venezuela para enfrentar las crisis de la democracia durante los noventa. Si bien los intentos de reforma han comprendido desde la descentralización y la transformación de los sistemas electorales hasta las reformas constitucionales, las reformas parecerían no haber generado los resultados adecuados dado que, en algunos casos, parecen haber profundizado las crisis. Al respecto se argumenta que toda reforma puede producir efectos imprevistos, no siempre benéficos. Dado que toda reforma implica costos, se torna necesario desprenderse de aquellos diagnósticos que perciben la realidad como verdad incuestionable.

Integración andina en el contexto de la crisis subregional (Coyuntura)

Este artículo analiza la evolución de las relaciones económicas entre los países andinos y hace un balance de la situación en que se encuentra el proceso de integración subregional. Este análisis se lo realiza tomando como punto de referencia las agudas crisis económicas que han azotado a los países andinos en los últimos años, las limitaciones actuales del marco institucional del Sistema Andino de Integración, y el déficit democrático y social que, en diversos grados, presentan todos los países de la subregión.

Seguridad y cooperación interamericana en la sub región andina (Tema Central)

Este artículo convoca a adoptar una posición equilibrada en el análisis de las dimensiones e implicaciones que las crisis individuales de los países andinos tienen para la seguridad subregional. El autor parte de la premisa de que EE.UU. carece de una política clara frente a los problemas de la subregión y sostiene que en este país existe una sensación de pérdida de control, que hace que el tema del narcotráfico se convierta en el único con resonancia política. El autor plantea la necesidad de desarrollar un enfoque multilateral que garantice la seguridad subregional, y coloca a la crisis colombiana como la más grave y preocupante.

La crisis bancaria ecuatoriana ¿una crisis diferente? (Artículos Varios)

Este artículo tiene como objetivo realizar un ágil análisis comparativo de la crisis ecuatoriana para establecer si es posible atribuirle a ésta las mismas causas, medidas correctivas, los mismos costos y duración, que se les asigna a crisis similares en otros países, revelando, además, los argumentos que permiten concluir que la crisis del sistema financiero ecuatoriano no ha terminado aún.

Las limitaciones de los mecanismos de aproximación jurídica para el diseño de la nueva arquitectura financiera internacional (Tema Central)

A nivel internacional existe consenso respecto a la importancia que tiene el marco institucional para el funcionamiento eficiente del sistema financiero y para la generación de incentivos correctos para mantener la disciplina de mercado. Por eso mismo, durante los últimos diez años, se ha estado discutiendo, especialmente a nivel técnico, respecto de las condiciones de una nueva arquitectura financiera internacional que se ajuste a la realidad de un sistema financiero globalizado, y se han generado políticas, lineamientos y mínimos estándares para los sistemas financieros que han sido recogidos fundamentalmente por normas informales conocidas como softlaw y por órganos igualmente informales. La Declaración de la Cumbre del G20 en Washington de noviembre de 2008 estableció cinco principios comunes para reforma del sistema financiero que deben ser considerados en esta nueva arquitectura, a la que se puede definir como ""el establecimiento e implementación, a nivel nacional e internacional, de reglas, principios y arreglos institucionales que aseguren la estabilidad del sistema financiero internacional, previniendo las crisis y estableciendo los mecanismos institucionales para enfrentarlas o mitigarlas"". Sin embargo de esto, no existe una conciencia clara de que el problema de la nueva arquitectura financiera internacional es un problema ante todo jurídico: los órganos informales creados y el softlaw son insuficientes para crear las condiciones necesarias para asegurar el obligatorio cumplimiento y la aplicación general de este marco de regulación financiera global. Además, el principio de la soberanía de los Estados, base de los ordenamientos y sistemas jurídicos actuales, de naturaleza fundamentalmente nacional, y norma fundamental para las relaciones entre Estados, en el Derecho público internacional, vuelve complejay demorada la creación de un nuevo sistema de gobernanza global que viabilice esta nueva arquitectura financiera internacional y permita devolver rápidamente la confianza perdida y la estabilidad de este nuevo sistema financiero global.

La UNASUR y su accionar frente a conflictos internacionales (Tema Central)

Este artículo se centra en el papel de UNASUR frente a las diversas crisis nacionales e internacionales que ha vivido Suramérica desde 2008. Igualmente, analiza su accionar en dos casos concretos: Ecuador en 2010 y Paraguay en 2012, que son ejemplos extremos de la vulnerabilidad institucional prevaleciente en la región. Se evidencia, además, que el proceso de resolución de conflictos es un tema frágil en la agenda política e institucional de UNASUR que se vincula, sobre todo, con la defensa de la democracia y el mantenimiento de la paz, factores importantes para los Estados.

Banking Union in the Eurozone and the European Union. CEPS Commentary, 12 June 2012

In this new CEPS Commentary, Jacopo Carmassi, Carmine Di Noia and Stefano Micossi present a rationale and detailed outline for the creation of a banking union in Europe. They argue that it is essential to clearly distinguish between what is needed to address a ‘systemic’ confidence crisis hitting the banking system – which is mainly or solely a eurozone problem – and ‘fair weather’ arrangements to prevent individual bank crises and, when they occur, to manage them in an orderly fashion so as to minimise systemic spillovers and the cost to taxpayers, which is of concern for the entire European Union.

The creation of euro area financial safety nets. Bruegel Working Paper 2012/09, July 2012

The financial crisis has exposed the need to devise stronger and broader international and regional safety nets in order to deal with economic and financial shocks and allow for countries to adjust. The euro area has developed several such mechanisms over the last couple of years through a process of trial and error and gradual enhancement and expansion. Their overall architecture remains imperfect and leaves areas of vulnerabilities. This paper provides an overview of the recent financial stability mechanisms and their various shortcomings and tries to brush the outline of a more comprehensive safety net architecture that would coherently address the banking, sovereign and external imbalances crises against both transitory and more permanent shocks. It aims to provide a roadmap for further improvements of the current mechanism and the creation of new devices including a banking resolution mechanism and amore powerfulmechanismto provide financial assistance addressing both the sovereign and external dimensions of the shocks thereby reducing the need for the ECB to fill the current void.

Central Banks in Times of Crisis: The FED vs. the ECB. CEPS Policy Brief No. 276, 11 July 2012,

Different economic and financial structures require different crisis responses. Different crises also require different tools and resources. The first ‘stage’ of the financial crisis (2007-09) was similar on both sides of the Atlantic, and the response was also quite similar. The second stage of the crisis is unique to the euro area. Increasing financial disintegration within the region has forced the ECB to become the central counterparty for the entire cross-border banking market and to intervene in the sovereign bond market of some stressed countries. The actions undertaken by the European Central Bank (ECB), however, have not always represented the best response, in terms of effectiveness, consistency and transparency. This is especially true for the Securities Markets Programme (SMP): by de facto imposing its absolute seniority during the Greek PSI (private sector involvement), the ECB has probably killed its future effectiveness.

The fiscal implications of a banking union. Bruegel Policy Brief 2012/02 [3?], September 2012

Systemic banking crises are a threat to all countries whatever their development level. They can entail major fiscal costs that can undermine the sustainability of public finances. More than anywhere else, however, a number of euro-area countries have been affected by a lethal negative feedback loop between banking and sovereign risk, followed by disintegration of the financial system, real economic fragmentation and the exposure of the European Central Bank. Recognising the systemic dimension of the problem, the Euro-Area Summit of June 2012 called for the creation of a banking union with common supervision and the possibility for the European Stability Mechanism to recapitalise banks directly.

The known unknowns and the unknown unknowns of the EMU. Bruegel Policy Contribution 2012/18, October 2012

Extensive prior research on the economics of European monetary union highlighted some potential risks (the known unknowns) but overlooked others (the unknown unknowns). Asymmetries among participating countries, the potentially destabilising character of a one-size-fits all monetary policy, the weakness of adjustment mechanisms, the lack of incentives for fiscal discipline, the possibility of sovereign solvency crises and their adverse consequences were all known and understood. But policymakers often relied on a complacent reading of the evidence. • The potential for financial disruption was vastly underestimated. Economists generally did not consider, or underestimated, the possibility of balance of payment crises such as those experienced by southern European countries, or the risk of a feedback loop between banks and sovereigns. • Remedying EMU’s systemic deficiencies is on the policy agenda. Banking union would go a long way towards addressing the fault lines. The urgent question for economists is if it is going to be enough and, if not, what else should complement the ‘bare-bones’ EMU of Maastricht.

Reactive crisis management in construction projects

Patterns of communication and behaviour emerge within a construction project in response to a construction crisis. This paper investigates, within a grounded theory framework, the nature of these patterns, the sociological and psychological forces which shape them and their relationship with crisis management efficiency. A grounded theory is presented in four parts. The first part conceives a construction crisis as a period of social instability, arising from conflicting interest groups, seeking to exercise power in the pursuit of social structures which suit their political and economic interests. The second part sees a construction crisis as a de-sensitizing phenomenon which results in a period of behavioural instability and conflict which is self-perpetuating. The third part cites social structure as an important influence upon construction crisis management efficiency, in determining the efficiency of information flow, and the level of uncertainty between those affected. The fourth part points to the in-built defence mechanisms which construction crises have and to three managerial ironies which make construction crisis management difficult.

The role of the Hellenic food safety authority in Greece: implementation strategies

During the last 15 years, a series of food scares and crises (BSE, dioxin. foot and mouth disease) have seriously under-mined public confidence in food producers and operators and their capacity to produce safe food. As a result, food safety has become a top priority of the European legislative authorities and systems of national food control have been tightened up and have included the establishment of the European Food Safety Authority. In Greece a law creating the Hellenic Food Safety Authority has been approved. The main objectives of this Authority are to promote the food security to consumers and inform them of any changes or any development in the food and health sector. The paper reviews the general structure of the current food control system in Greece. It describes the structure and the mission of the Hellenic Food Safety Authority and explains the strategy to carry out inspections and the analysis of the preliminary results of such inspections. Details are also given of the personnel training and certification and accreditation standards to be met by the Authority by the end of 2004. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Performance assessment of a volcanic ash transport model mini-ensemble used for inverse modeling of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption

The requirement to forecast volcanic ash concentrations was amplified as a response to the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption when ash safety limits for aviation were introduced in the European area. The ability to provide accurate quantitative forecasts relies to a large extent on the source term which is the emissions of ash as a function of time and height. This study presents source term estimations of the ash emissions from the Eyjafjallajökull eruption derived with an inversion algorithm which constrains modeled ash emissions with satellite observations of volcanic ash. The algorithm is tested with input from two different dispersion models, run on three different meteorological input data sets. The results are robust to which dispersion model and meteorological data are used. Modeled ash concentrations are compared quantitatively to independent measurements from three different research aircraft and one surface measurement station. These comparisons show that the models perform reasonably well in simulating the ash concentrations, and simulations using the source term obtained from the inversion are in overall better agreement with the observations (rank correlation = 0.55, Figure of Merit in Time (FMT) = 25–46%) than simulations using simplified source terms (rank correlation = 0.21, FMT = 20–35%). The vertical structures of the modeled ash clouds mostly agree with lidar observations, and the modeled ash particle size distributions agree reasonably well with observed size distributions. There are occasionally large differences between simulations but the model mean usually outperforms any individual model. The results emphasize the benefits of using an ensemble-based forecast for improved quantification of uncertainties in future ash crises.

Shot by both sides: Punk, politics and the end of “Consensus”

This article examines the ways in which political organisations of the far left and far right responded to punk-informed youth culture in Britain during the late 1970s. It examines how both tried to understand punk within their own ideological framework, particularly in relation to the perceived socio-economic and political crises of the late 1970s, before then endeavouring to appropriate—or use—punk for their own ends. Ultimately, however, the article suggests that while punk may indeed be seen as a cultural response to the breakdown of what some have described as the post-war ‘consensus’ in the 1970s, the far left and far right's focus on cultural expression cut across the basic foundations on which they had been built. Consequently, neither left nor right proved able to provide an effective political conduit through which the disaffections expressed by punk could be channelled.