966 resultados para Choice under uncertainty


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Adiabatic self-heating tests were carried out on five New Zealand coal samples ranging in rank from lignite to high-volatile bituminous. Kinetic parameters of oxidation were obtained front the self-heating curves assuming Arrhenius behaviour. The activation energy E (kJ mol(-1)) and the pre-exponential factor A (s(-1)) were determined in the temperature range of 70-140 degreesC. The activation energy exhibited a definite rank relationship with a minimum E of 55 kJ mol(-1) occurring at a Suggate rank of similar to6.2 corresponding to subbituminous C. Either side of this rank there was a noticeable increase in the activation energy indicating lower reactivity of the coal. A similar rank trend was also observed in the R-70 self-heating rate index values that were taken from the initial portion of the self-heating curve front 40 to 70 degreesC. From these results it is clear that the adiabatic method is capable of providing reliable kinetic parameters of coal oxidation.

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Solid-state C-13 nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) with cross-polarisation (CP) and magic-angle-spinning (MAS) was used to: (a) examine the changes in carbon (C) composition of windrowed harvest residues during the first 3 years of hoop pine plantations in subtropical Australia; (b) assess the impacts of windrowed harvest residues on soil organic matter (SOM) composition and quality in the 0-10 cm soil layer. Harvest residues were collected from 0-, 1-, 2- and 3-year-old windrows of ca. 2.5 m width (15 m apart for 0-, 1- and 2-year-old sites and 10 m apart for 3-year-old site). Soils from the 0 to 10 cm soil layer were collected from the 1-, 2- and 3-year-old sites. The 13C NMR spectra of the harvest residues indicated the presence of lignin in the hoop pine wood, foliage and newly incorporated organic matter (NIOM). Condensed tannin structures were found in the decay-resistant bark, small wood and foliage, but were absent in other residue components and SOM. The NMR spectra of small wood samples contained condensed tannin structures because the outer layer of bark was not removed. NIOM showed a shift from foliage-like structures (celluloses) to lignin-type structures, indicating an incorporation of woody residues from the decomposing harvest residues. Suberins were also present in the small wood, foliage and bark. The 13C CP NMR spectra of SOM indicated that in areas where windrows were present, SOM did not show compositional changes. However, an increase in SOM quality under the windrows in the second year after their formation as characterised by the alkyl C/O-alkyl C (A/O-A) ratio was mainly due to inputs from the decomposition of the labile, readily available components of the windrowed harvest residues. (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

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This study investigated the influence of harvest residue management practices on soil organic matter (SOM) composition and quality from two second-rotation Eucalyptus globulus plantations in southwestern Australia, using solid-state 13C nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy with cross-polarisation and magic-angle-spinning (CPMAS). Soil samples (0–5 cm) were collected every 12 months for 5 years from two sites that had contrasting soil types and fertility. Harvest residue management treatments established at both sites were (a) no harvest residues; and (b) double harvest residues. The use of 13C CPMAS and DD NMR spectroscopy enabled the successful non-destructive detection of SOM quality changes in the two E. globulus plantations. Relative intensities of 13C CPMAS NMR spectral regions were similar at both sites, and for both harvest residue treatments, indicating that SOM composition was also similar. Dipolar dephasing (DD) NMR spectra revealed resonances in SOM assigned to lignin and tannin structures, with larger resonances in the carbonyl and alkyl C regions that were indicative of cuticular material, enabling detection of changes in SOM quality. Retention of double harvest residues on the soil surface increased the soil quality compared with removal of all harvest residues at both sites as indicated by the NMR aromaticities, but this was most noticeable at Manjimup, which had greater initial soil fertility.

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This invited editorial, reflecting on expectations of changing to graduate entry, eg enhanced maturity in the student cohort with greater self-sufficiency and taking of responsibility for learning in the context of adoption of a problem-based learning model, examines experiences of early post-change years and raises questions for contemplation by medical schools considering graduate entry.

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The chemical properties of deep profile samples ( up to 12 m) of Ferrosols from northern Queensland were investigated to provide an understanding of the accumulation of nitrate ( NO3) within these soil profiles. The influence of other cations and anions present in the soil solution or on the exchange and the charge chemistry of the profiles were examined with respect to the NO3 accumulations. The major ions in the soil solution were Na, NO3, and chloride ( Cl). Distinct regions of anion accumulation were observed; SO4 accumulated in the upper profile of all cores, whereas NO3 and Cl accumulations were restricted to the lower profile of cores with appreciable AEC (> 1 cmol(c)/kg). Gaines-Thomas selectivity coefficients were used to indicate exchange preference for cations and anions, and are as follows: Al > Ca similar to Mg > K > Na and sulfate (SO4) > Cl similar to NO3. The selectivity of SO4 increased and the extractable SO4 decreased in the lower profile of all cores. This has important implications for the adsorption of NO3 and Cl. The NO3 and Cl accumulations were shown to correspond to a region of low SO4 occupancy of the exchange sites in the lower profile. Along with the high SO4 selectivity, this suggests that SO4 may control the positioning of the NO3 accumulations. It was concluded that the NO3 accumulations were relatively stable under current management practices, although the reduction in NO3 inputs would likely see the gradual replacement of NO3 with Cl as a result of their comparable selectivity for exchange sites.

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Nitrate leaching below the crop root-zone in variable charge soils may be adsorbed at anion exchange sites, thereby temporarily reducing the risk of contamination of water bodies. The objectives of this study were (i) to investigate whether nitrate adsorption, accumulation, and retention in the Johnstone River Catchment of Far North Queensland wet tropics is widespread; (ii) to assess the capacity of soil in the Johnstone River Catchment to retain nitrate; and (iii) to deduce the consequences of nitrate adsorption/desorption on contamination of water bodies. Soil cores ranging from 8 to 12.5 m depth were taken from 28 sites across the catchment, representing 9 Ferrosol soil types under sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum-S) cultivation for at least 50 years and from rainforest. The cores were segmented at 0.5-m depth increments and subsamples were analysed for nitrate-N, cation and anion exchange capacities, pH, exchangeable cations (Ca, Mg, K, Na), soil organic C, electrical conductivity, sulfate-S, and chloride. Nitrate-N concentration under sugarcane ranged from 0 to 72.5 mg/kg, compared with 0 to 0.31 mg/kg under rainforest, both Pin Gin soils. The average N load in 1-12 m depth across 19 highly oxidic profiles of the Pin Gin soil series was 1550 kg/ha, compared with 185 kg/ha under 8 non-Pin Gin soils and 11 kg/ha in rainforest on a Pin Gin soil. Most of the nitrate retention was observed at depth of 2-12 m, particularly at 4-10 m, indicating that the accumulation was well below the crop root-zone. The average maximum potential nitrate retention capacity was 10.8 t/ha for the Pin Gin and 4.7 t/ha for the non-Pin Gin soil. Compared with the current N load, the soils still possess a large capacity to adsorb and retain nitrate in profiles. Retention of large quantities of the leached nitrate deep in most of the profiles has reduced the risk of contamination of water bodies. However, computations show that substantial quantities of the nitrate leached below the root-zone were not adsorbed and remain unaccounted for. This unaccounted nitrate might have entered both on- and off-site water bodies and/or have been denitrified.

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The influence of near-bed sorting processes on heavy mineral content in suspension is discussed. Sediment concentrations above a rippled bed of mixed quartz and heavy mineral sand were measured under regular nonbreaking waves in the laboratory. Using the traditional gradient diffusion process, settling velocity would be expected to strongly affect sediment distribution. This was not observed during present trials. In fact, the vertical gradients of time-averaged suspension concentrations were found to be similar for the light and heavy minerals, despite their different settling velocities. This behavior implies a convective rather than diffusive distribution mechanism. Between the nonmoving bed and the lowest suspension sampling point, fight and heavy mineral concentration differs by two orders of magnitude. This discrimination against the heavy minerals in the pickup process is due largely to selective entrainment at the ripple face. Bed-form dynamics and the nature of quartz suspension profiles are found to be little affected by the trialed proportion of overall heavy minerals in the bed (3.8-22.1%).

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The effects of various fallow management systems and cropping intensities on water infiltration were measured on an Alfisol at Ibadan in southwestern Nigeria. The objective was to determine the influence of the land use systems (a combination of crop-fallow sequences and intercropping types) on soil hydraulic properties obtained by disc permeameter and double-ring infiltration measurements. The experiment was established in 1989 as a split-plot design with four replications. The main plots were natural fallow, planted Pueraria phaseoloides and planted Leucaena leucocephala. The subplots were 1 year of maize/cassava intercrop followed by 3-year fallow (25% cropping intensity), or 2-year fallow (33% cropping intensity), or 1-year fallow (50% cropping intensity), or no fallow period (100% cropping intensity). Water infiltration rates and sorptivities were measured under saturated and unsaturated flow. Irrespective of land use, infiltration rates at the soil surface (121-324 cm h(-1)) were greater than those measured at 30 cm depth (55-144 cm h(-1)). This indicated that fewer large pores were present below 30 cm depth compared with 0-30 cm, depth. Despite some temporal variation, sorptivities with the highest mean value of 93.5 cm h(-1/2) increased as the cropping intensity decreased, suggesting a more continuous macropore system under less intensive land use systems. This was most likely due to continuous biopores created by perennial vegetation under long fallow systems. Intercropped maize and cassava yields also increased as cropping intensity decreased. The weak relationship between crop yields and hydraulic conductivity/infiltration rates suggests that the rates were not limiting.

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The use of a fitted parameter watershed model to address water quantity and quality management issues requires that it be calibrated under a wide range of hydrologic conditions. However, rarely does model calibration result in a unique parameter set. Parameter nonuniqueness can lead to predictive nonuniqueness. The extent of model predictive uncertainty should be investigated if management decisions are to be based on model projections. Using models built for four neighboring watersheds in the Neuse River Basin of North Carolina, the application of the automated parameter optimization software PEST in conjunction with the Hydrologic Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) is demonstrated. Parameter nonuniqueness is illustrated, and a method is presented for calculating many different sets of parameters, all of which acceptably calibrate a watershed model. A regularization methodology is discussed in which models for similar watersheds can be calibrated simultaneously. Using this method, parameter differences between watershed models can be minimized while maintaining fit between model outputs and field observations. In recognition of the fact that parameter nonuniqueness and predictive uncertainty are inherent to the modeling process, PEST's nonlinear predictive analysis functionality is then used to explore the extent of model predictive uncertainty.

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Os Conselhos Gestores s??o f??runs h??bridos onde se viabiliza a participa????o popular no desenho das pol??ticas p??blicas, nas negocia????es de interesses da coletividade, na elabora????o de programas e projetos sociais e na fiscaliza????o das a????es governamentais. O significado e a dimens??o dos Conselhos para a democracia participativa s??o enormes, justificando a import??ncia da realiza????o deste estudo, que se baseou na an??lise explorat??ria de 12 Conselhos locais do munic??pio mineiro de Vi??osa, com o objetivo de avaliar o desempenho dos mesmos. A avalia????o do desempenho levou em considera????o os mesmos par??metros dimensionais, tanto para a coleta de dados prim??rios quanto para a coleta secund??ria. A coleta de dados prim??rios foi realizada a partir da aplica????o de question??rios semi-estruturados aos presidentes dos Conselhos em an??lise. Utilizou-se o programa SPSS, vers??o 15.0, para an??lise estat??stica das quest??es objetivas dos question??rios e a t??cnica de an??lise de conte??do para exame das quest??es abertas. Ap??s essa etapa, realizou-se um workshop com os presidentes dos Conselhos, visando ?? obten????o de novos dados e informa????es. Os Conselhos municipais analisados apresentaram resultados pouco discrepantes entre a teoria aplicada ao tema e a sua efetiva pr??tica no campo p??blico. Contudo, a pesquisa revelou que o grau de desenvolvimento institucional dos Conselhos n??o ?? homog??neo, ou seja, h?? alguns melhores gestores que outros. A escolha independente e democr??tica dos membros n??o-governamentais dos Conselhos em Vi??osa revelou o seu grau de independ??ncia do Poder Executivo. Por??m, a capacita????o de conselheiros precisa ser implementada para evitar uma desfigura????o dos Conselhos. No que tange ?? governan??a, destacouse em Vi??osa o seu grau e formas de aplicabilidade observadas na gest??o de v??rias pol??ticas. Da mesma forma, foi observado um n??vel de governabilidade que confere legitimidade ??s pol??ticas implementadas. Por fim, verificou-se que a efetividade da accountability societal tem sido instrumentalizada pelos Conselhos no ??mbito das diversas pol??ticas setoriais. J?? os dados secund??rios da an??lise foram obtidos por meio das s??nteses dos relat??rios de fiscaliza????o de munic??pios do Estado de Minas Gerais, realizadas pela Controladoria Geral da Uni??o. Foram identificados todos os registros pertinentes aos Conselhos Gestores Municipais do Estado de Minas Gerais, no per??odo de 2003 a 2006. Verificou-se que os maiores problemas se referem aos Conselhos Municipais de Sa??de e Assist??ncia Social. Entre as in??meras falhas apontadas, destacam-se problemas graves na constitui????o e operacionaliza????o dos Conselhos, resultando na inoper??ncia desses mecanismos nos munic??pios fiscalizados. A avalia????o do desempenho dos Conselhos locais de Vi??osa possibilitou concluir que esses mecanismos apresentaram um desempenho bem satisfat??rio na gest??o e controle das pol??ticas p??blicas no munic??pio.

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O presente trabalho aborda, sob uma perspectiva analítica e crítica da Geografia, a temática relacionada ao lazer na cidade contemporânea, tendo como problemática a implantação desigual dos equipamentos públicos de lazer na cidade de Vitória-ES. A discussão do tema está associada ao lazer como um direito constitucional do cidadão, revelando de que maneira o Poder Público corrobora para a espacialização desigual dos equipamentos de lazer na cidade estudada. A discussão surgiu em torno da constatação de que Vitória-ES é uma cidade geograficamente dividida pelo Maciço Central, o que gera espaços diferenciados, como a orla Nordeste, rica e equipada dos mais diversos equipamentos de lazer e a orla Noroeste, voltada para a baía de Vitória e para o manguezal, marcada por grandes disparidades humanas, econômicas e sociais. Observou-se que, durante muitas décadas, o Poder Público esteve ausente na promoção de equipamentos públicos de lazer na orla Noroeste de Vitória, o que gerou ambientes diferenciados na cidade. Enquanto isso, a orla Nordeste passou por um intenso processo de promoção de equipamentos públicos, dos mais requintados, promotores de um valorização do solo local e da melhoria da qualidade de vida para a população ali residente. Desse modo, a dissertação pretendeu investigar as políticas públicas que estiveram atreladas à promoção de equipamentos públicos de lazer em quatro bairros específicos: Grande Vitória, Nova Palestina, Maria Ortiz e Resistência, todos localizados na orla Noroeste de Vitória. A escolha pelos bairros se deu através da detecção de que dois deles (Maria Ortiz e Nova Palestina) receberam a implantação de equipamentos públicos de lazer, tendo suas orlas reurbanizadas e o outros dois (Grande Vitória e Resistência), até a presente data, aguardam pela chegada de infraestrutura urbana de todos os tipos, inclusive de lazer.

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Due to its recent economic success, Brazil is considered an emerging country, but is it an emerging power concerning global environmental governance? This article argues that although Brazil has a sui generis profile, it can only be considered an emerging power in some environmental regimes, such as global climate change. Thus, international relations theory needs more analytical instruments to assess the impact of emerging powers in global environmental governance

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Foreign Minister of Brazil since 2003, Ambassador Celso Amorim outlines the main guidelines and accomplishments of Brazil's foreign policy under President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The article provides a full-fledged, although not exhaustive, narrative of a number of diplomatic initiatives championed by Brazil over the last eight years: from the gathering of the group of developing countries in a World Trade Organization (WTO) meeting in Cancun to the negotiations that led to the Declaration of Tehran, as well as the challenges the country has been facing as its international weight grows.

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In the last five years, climate change has been established as a central civilizational driver of our time. As a result of this development, the most diversified social processes - as well as the fields of science which study them - have had their dynamics altered. In International Relations, this double challenge could be explained as follows: 1) in empirical terms, climate change imposes a deepening of cooperation levels on the international community, considering the global common character of the atmosphere; and 2) to International Relations as a discipline, climate change demands from the scientific community a conceptual review of the categories designed to approach the development of global climate governance. The goal of this article is to discuss in both conceptual and empirical terms the structure of global climate change governance, through an exploratory research, aiming at identifying the key elements that allow understanding its dynamics. To do so, we rely on the concept of climate powers. This discussion is grounded in the following framework: we now live in an international system under conservative hegemony that is unable to properly respond to the problems of interdependence, among which - and mainly -, the climate issue.