Evaluating multivariate volatility forecasts : how effective are statistical and economic loss functions?

Multivariate volatility forecasts are an important input in many financial applications, in particular portfolio optimisation problems. Given the number of models available and the range of loss functions to discriminate between them, it is obvious that selecting the optimal forecasting model is challenging. The aim of this thesis is to thoroughly investigate how effective many commonly used statistical (MSE and QLIKE) and economic (portfolio variance and portfolio utility) loss functions are at discriminating between competing multivariate volatility forecasts. An analytical investigation of the loss functions is performed to determine whether they identify the correct forecast as the best forecast. This is followed by an extensive simulation study examines the ability of the loss functions to consistently rank forecasts, and their statistical power within tests of predictive ability. For the tests of predictive ability, the model confidence set (MCS) approach of Hansen, Lunde and Nason (2003, 2011) is employed. As well, an empirical study investigates whether simulation findings hold in a realistic setting. In light of these earlier studies, a major empirical study seeks to identify the set of superior multivariate volatility forecasting models from 43 models that use either daily squared returns or realised volatility to generate forecasts. This study also assesses how the choice of volatility proxy affects the ability of the statistical loss functions to discriminate between forecasts. Analysis of the loss functions shows that QLIKE, MSE and portfolio variance can discriminate between multivariate volatility forecasts, while portfolio utility cannot. An examination of the effective loss functions shows that they all can identify the correct forecast at a point in time, however, their ability to discriminate between competing forecasts does vary. That is, QLIKE is identified as the most effective loss function, followed by portfolio variance which is then followed by MSE. The major empirical analysis reports that the optimal set of multivariate volatility forecasting models includes forecasts generated from daily squared returns and realised volatility. Furthermore, it finds that the volatility proxy affects the statistical loss functions’ ability to discriminate between forecasts in tests of predictive ability. These findings deepen our understanding of how to choose between competing multivariate volatility forecasts.

Application of Mesenchymal Stem Cells for repair and regeneration of cartilage and bone

Australian efforts to provide orthopaedic surgeons with living, load-bearing scaffolds suitable for current joint (knee and hip) replacement surgery, non-union fracture repair, and miniscal and growth plate cartilage regeneration are being lead by teams at the Institute for Medical and Veterinary Science and Women's and Children's Hospital in Adelaide; the Peter MacCallum and St Vincent's Medical Research Institutes in Melbourne; and the Mater Medical Research Institute and new Institute for Health and Biomedical Innovation at QUT, Brisbane. In each case multidisciplinary teams are attempting to develop autologous living tissue constructs, utilising mesenchymal stem cells (MSC), with the intention of effecting seamless repair and regeneration of skeletal trauma and defects. In this article we will briefly review current knowledge of the phenotypic properties of MSC and discuss the potential therapeutic applications of these cells as exemplified by their use in cartilage repair and tissue engineering based approaches to the treatment of skeletal defects.

Serum bone formation marker correlation with improved osseointegration in osteoporotic rats treated with simvastatin

Objective: Simvastatin has been shown to enhance osseointegration of pure titanium implants in osteoporotic rats. This study aimed to evaluate the relationship between the serum level of bone formation markers and the osseointegration of pure titanium implants in osteoporotic rats treated with simvastatin. Materials and methods: Fifty-four female Sprague Dawley rats, aged 3 months old, were randomly divided into three groups: Sham-operated group (SHAM; n=18), ovariectomized group (OVX; n=18), and ovariectomized with Simvastatin treatment group (OVX+SIM; n=18). Fifty-six days after ovariectomy, screw-shaped titanium implants were inserted into the tibiae. Simvastatin was administered orally at 5mg/kg each day after the placement of the implant in the OVX+SIM group. The animals were sacrificed at either 28 or 84 days after implantation and the undecalcified tissue sections were processed for histological analysis. Total alkaline phosphatase (ALP), bone specific alkaline phosphatase (BALP) and bone Gla protein (BGP) were measured in all animal sera collected at the time of euthanasia and correlated with the histological assessment of osseointegration. Results: The level of ALP in the OVX group was higher than the SHAM group at day 28, with no differences between the three groups at day 84. The level of BALP in the OVX+SIM group was significantly higher than both OVX and SHAM groups at days 28 and 84. Compared with day 28, the BALP level of all three groups showed a significant decrease at day 84. There were no significant differences in BGP levels between the three groups at day 28, but at day 84 the OVX+SIM group showed significantly higher levels than both the OVX and SHAM groups. There was a significant increase in BGP levels between days 28 and 84 in the OVX+SIM group. The serum bone marker levels correlated with the histological assessment showing reduced osseointegration in the OVX compared to the SHAM group which is subsequently reversed in the OVX+SIM group.

Mussel-inspired porous SiO2 scaffolds with improved mineralization and cytocompatibility for drug delivery and bone tissue engineering

Porous SiO2 scaffolds with mesopore structure (named as MS scaffolds) have been proposed as suitable for bone tissue engineering due to their excellent drug-delivery ability; however, the mineralization and cytocompatibility of MS scaffolds are far from optimal for bone tissue engineering, and it is also unclear how the delivery of drugs from MS scaffolds affects osteoblastic cells. The aims of the present study were to improve the mineralization and cytocompatibility of MS scaffolds by coating mussel-inspired polydopamine on the pore walls of scaffolds. The effects of polydopamine modification on MS scaffolds was investigated with respect to apatite mineralization and the attachment, proliferation and differentiation of bone marrow stromal cells (BMSCs), as was the release profile of the drug dexamethasone (DEX). Our results show that polydopamine can readily coat the pore walls of MS scaffolds and that polydopamine-modified MS scaffolds have a significantly improved apatite-mineralization ability as well as better attachment and proliferation of BMSCs in the scaffolds, compared to controls. Polydopamine modification did not alter the release profile of DEX from MS scaffolds but the sustained delivery of DEX significantly improved alkaline phosphatase (ALP) activity of BMSCs in the scaffolds. These results suggest that polydopamine modification is a viable option to enhance the bioactivity of bone tissue engineering scaffolds and, further, that DEX-loaded polydopamine MS scaffolds have potential uses as a release system to enhance the osteogenic properties of bone tissue engineering applications.

Nanostructured mesoporous bioglass coated zirconia scaffolds for bone tissue engineering

For the filling and reconstruction of non-healing bone defects, the application of porous ceramic scaffold as bone substitutes is considered to be a reasonable choice. In bone tissue engineering, an ideal scaffold must satisfy several criterias such as open porosity, having high compressive strength (it depends where in body, and if external fixatures are used) and the practicability for cell migration. Many researchers have focused on enhancing the mechanical properties of hydroxyapatite scaffolds by combining it with other biomaterials, such as bioglass and polymers. Nevertheless, there is still a lack of suitable scaffolds based on porous biomaterials. In this study, zirconia scaffolds from two different templates (polyurethane (PU) and Acrylonitrile Butadiene Styrene (ABS) templates) were successfully fabricated with dissimilar fabrication techniques. The scaffold surfaces were further modified with mesoporous bioglass for the purpose of bone tissue engineering. In the study of PU template scaffold, high porosity (~88%) sol-gel derived yttria-stabilized zirconia (YSZ) scaffold was prepared by a polyurethane (PU) foam replica method using sol-gel derived zirconia for the first time, and double coated with Mesoporous Bioglass (MBGs) coating. For the ABS template scaffold, two types of templates (cube and cylinder) with different strut spacings were used and fabricated by a 3D Rapid Prototyper. Subsequently, zirconia scaffolds with low porosity (63±2.8% to 68±2.5%) were fabricated by embedding the zirconia powder slurry into the ABS templates and burning out the ABS to produce a uniform porous structure. The zirconia scaffolds were double coated with mesoporous bioglass by dip coating for the first time. The porosities of the scaffolds were calculated before and after coating. The microstructures were then examined using scanning electron microscopy and the mechanical properties were evaluated using compressive test. Accordingly, relationships between microstructure, processing and mechanical behaviour of the porous zirconia was discussed. Scaffold biocompatibility and bioactivity was also evaluated using a bone marrow stromal cell (BMSC) proliferation test and a simulated body fluid test.

Preparation and characterisation of tri-calcium phosphate scaffolds with tunnel-like macro-pores for bone tissue engineering

Calcium Phosphate ceramics have been widely used in tissue engineering due to their excellent biocompatibility and biodegradability. In the physiological environment, they are able to gradually degrade, absorbed and promote bone growth. Ultimately, they are capable of replacing damaged bone with new tissue. However, their low mechanical properties limit calcium phosphate ceramics in load-bearing applications. To obtain sufficient mechanical properties as well as high biocompatibility is one of the main focuses in biomaterials research. Therefore, the current project focuses on the preparation and characterization of porous tri-calcium phosphate (TCP) ceramic scaffolds. Hydroxapatite (HA) was used as the raw material, and normal calcium phosphate bioglass was added to adjust the ratio between calcium and phosphate. It was found that when 20% bioglass was added to HA and sintered at 1400oC for 3 hours, the TCP scaffold was obtained and this was confirmed by X-ray diffraction (XRD) analysis. Test results have shown that by applying this method, TCP scaffolds have significantly higher compressive strength (9.98MPa) than those made via TCP powder (<3MPa). Moreover, in order to further increase the compressive strength of TCP scaffolds, the samples were then coated with bioglass. For normal bioglass coated TCP scaffold, compressive strength was 16.69±0.5MPa; the compressive strength for single layer mesoporous bioglass coated scaffolds was 15.03±0.63MPa. In addition, this project has also concentrated on sizes and shapes effects; it was found that the cylinder scaffolds have more mechanical property than the club ones. In addition, this project performed cell culture within scaffold to assess biocompatibility. The cells were well distributed in the scaffold, and the cytotoxicity test was performed by 3-(4,5)-dimethylthiahiazo(-z-y1)-3,5-di- phenytetrazoliumromide (MTT) assay. The Alkaline Phosphatase (Alp) activity of human bone marrow mesenchymal stem cell system (hBMSCs) seeded on scaffold expressed higher in vitro than that in the positive control groups in osteogenic medium, which indicated that the scaffolds were both osteoconductive and osteoinductive, showing potential value in bone tissue engineering.

Aggravation of ADAMTS and MMP production and ERK1/2 pathway in the interaction of osteoarthritic subchondral bone osteoblasts and articular cartilage chondrocytes : a possible pathogenic role in osteoarthritis

Introduction: Degradative enzymes, such as A disintegrin and metalloproteinase with thrombospondin motifs (ADAMTS) and matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs), play key roles in osteoarthritis (OA) development. The aim of the present study was to investigate if cross-talk between subchondral bone osteoblasts (SBOs) and articular cartilage chondrocytes (ACCs) in OA alters the expression and regulation of ADAMTS5, ADAMTS4, MMP-1, MMP-2, MMP-3, MMP-8, MMP-9 and MMP-13, and also to test the possible involvement of mitogen activated protein kinase (MAPK) signaling pathway during this process. Methods: ACCs and SBOs were isolated from normal and OA patients. An in vitro co-culture model was developed to study the regulation of ADAMTS and MMPs under normal and OA joint cross-talk conditions. MAPK-ERK inhibitor, PD98059 was applied to delineate the involvement of specific pathway during this interaction process. Results: Indirect co-culture of OA SBOs with normal ACCs resulted in significantly increased expression of ADAMTS5, ADAMTS4, MMP-2, MMP-3 and MMP-9 in ACCs, whereas co-culture of OA ACCs led to increased MMP-1 and MMP-2 expression in normal SBOs. The upregulation of ADAMTS and MMPs under these conditions was correlated with activation of the MAPK-ERK1/2 signaling pathway and the addition of the MAPK-ERK inhibitor, PD98059, reversed the overexpression of ADAMTS and MMPs in co-cultures. Conclusion: In summary, we believe, these results add to the evidence that in human OA, altered bi-directional signals transmitted between SBOs and ACCs significantly impacts the critical features of both cartilage and bone by producing abnormal levels of ADAMTS and MMPs. Furthermore, we have demonstrated for the first time that this altered cross-talk was mediated by the phosphorylation of MAPK-ERK1/2 signaling pathway.

Small animal bone healing models : standards, tips, and pitfalls results of a consensus meeting

Small animal fracture models have gained increasing interest in fracture healing studies. To achieve standardized and defined study conditions, various variables must be carefully controlled when designing fracture healing experiments in mice or rats. The strain, age and sex of the animals may influence the process of fracture healing. Furthermore, the choice of the fracture fixation technique depends on the questions addressed, whereby intra- and extramedullary implants as well as open and closed surgical approaches may be considered. During the last few years, a variety of different, highly sophisticated implants for fracture fixation in small animals have been developed. Rigid fixation with locking plates or external fixators results in predominantly intramembranous healing in both mice and rats. Locking plates, external fixators, intramedullary screws, the locking nail and the pin-clip device allow different degrees of stability resulting in various amounts of endochondral and intramembranous healing. The use of common pins that do not provide rotational and axial stability during fracture stabilization should be discouraged in the future. Analyses should include at least biomechanical and histological evaluations, even if the focus of the study is directed towards the elucidation of molecular mechanisms of fracture healing using the largely available spectrum of antibodies and gene-targeted animals to study molecular mechanisms of fracture healing. This review discusses distinct requirements for the experimental setups as well as the advantages and pitfalls of the different fixation techniques in rats and mice.

Femoral impaction grafting in revision total hip arthroplasty

Between 1987 and 1999, 540 revision total hip replacements in 487 patients were performed at our institution with the femoral impaction grafting technique with a cemented femoral stem. All patients were prospectively followed for 2-15years post-operatively with no loss to follow-up. 494 hips remained successfully in situ at an average 6.7years. The ten year survival rate was 98.0% (95% CI 96.2 to 99.8) with aseptic loosening as the endpoint and 84.2% (95% CI 78.5 to 89.9) for re-operation for any reason. Indication for surgery and the use of any kind of reinforcement significantly influenced outcome (p<0.001). This is the largest known series of revision THR with femoral impaction grafting and the results support continued use of this technique.

Loss of chance in medical negligence claims now a lost cause?

The question whether the loss of chance of a better medical outcome in cases of medical negligence should be recognised as actionable damage is ‘a question which has divided courts and commentators throughout the common law world.’ In April 2010, the High Court handed down its anticipated decision in the case of Tabet (by her Tutor Sheiban) v Gett (2010) 240 CLR 537. The issue considered by the court was whether the appellant could claim in negligence for the loss of a chance of a better medical outcome. This issue had not been considered by the High Court previously, the most relevant cases being Rufo v Hosking (2004) 61 NSWLR 678 and Gavalas v Singh (2001) 3 VLR 404. Claiming for a loss of chance in a personal injury action raises questions as to recognised damage and causation, and the members of the High Court considered both of these.

Inferior field loss increases rate of falls in older adults with glaucoma

PURPOSE: To examine the visual predictors of falls and injurious falls among older adults with glaucoma. METHODS: Prospective falls data were collected for 71 community-dwelling adults with primary open-angle glaucoma, mean age 73.9 ± 5.7 years, for one year using monthly falls diaries. Baseline assessment of central visual function included high-contrast visual acuity and Pelli-Robson contrast sensitivity. Binocular integrated visual fields were derived from monocular Humphrey Field Analyser plots. Rate ratios (RR) for falls and injurious falls with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were based on negative binomial regression models. RESULTS: During the one year follow-up, 31 (44%) participants experienced at least one fall and 22 (31%) experienced falls that resulted in an injury. Greater visual impairment was associated with increased falls rate, independent of age and gender. In a multivariate model, more extensive field loss in the inferior region was associated with higher rate of falls (RR 1.57, 95%CI 1.06, 2.32) and falls with injury (RR 1.80, 95%CI 1.12, 2.98), adjusted for all other vision measures and potential confounding factors. Visual acuity, contrast sensitivity, and superior field loss were not associated with the rate of falls; topical beta-blocker use was also not associated with increased falls risk. CONCLUSIONS: Falls are common among older adults with glaucoma and occur more frequently in those with greater visual impairment, particularly in the inferior field region. This finding highlights the importance of the inferior visual field region in falls risk and assists in identifying older adults with glaucoma at risk of future falls, for whom potential interventions should be targeted. KEY WORDS: glaucoma, visual field, visual impairment, falls, injury

Biomaterial scaffolds in cartilage-subchondral bone defects influencing the repair of autologous articular cartilage transplants

The repair of articular cartilage typically involves the repair of cartilage-subchondral bone tissue defects. Although various bioactive materials have been used to repair bone defects, how these bioactive materials in subchondral bone defects influence the repair of autologous cartilage transplant remains unclear. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of different subchondral biomaterial scaffolds on the repair of autologous cartilage transplant in a sheep model. Cylindrical cartilage-subchondral bone defects were created in the right femoral knee joint of each sheep. The subchondral bone defects were implanted with hydroxyapatite-β-tricalcium phosphate (HA-TCP), poly lactic-glycolic acid (PLGA)-HA-TCP dual-layered composite scaffolds (PLGA/HA-TCP scaffolds), or autologous bone chips. The autologous cartilage layer was placed on top of the subchondral materials. After three months, the effect of different subchondral scaffolds on the repair of autologous cartilage transplant was systematically studied by investigating the mechanical strength, structural integration and histological responses. The results showed that the transplanted cartilage layer supported by HA-TCP scaffolds had better structural integration and higher mechanical strength than that supported by PLGA/HA-TCP scaffolds. Furthermore, HA-TCP supported cartilage showed higher expression of acid mucosubstances and glycol-amino-glycan (GAG) contents than that supported by PLGA/HA-TCP scaffolds. Our results suggested that the physicochemical properties, including the inherent mechanical strength and material chemistry of the scaffolds, play important roles in influencing the repair of autologous cartilage transplants. The study may provide useful information for the design and selection of proper subchondral biomaterials to support the repair of both subchondral bone and cartilage defects.