A comparison of Bayesian and frequentist approaches to incorporating external information for the prediction of prostate cancer risk.

We present the most comprehensive comparison to date of the predictive benefit of genetics in addition to currently used clinical variables, using genotype data for 33 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 1,547 Caucasian men from the placebo arm of the REduction by DUtasteride of prostate Cancer Events (REDUCE®) trial. Moreover, we conducted a detailed comparison of three techniques for incorporating genetics into clinical risk prediction. The first method was a standard logistic regression model, which included separate terms for the clinical covariates and for each of the genetic markers. This approach ignores a substantial amount of external information concerning effect sizes for these Genome Wide Association Study (GWAS)-replicated SNPs. The second and third methods investigated two possible approaches to incorporating meta-analysed external SNP effect estimates - one via a weighted PCa 'risk' score based solely on the meta analysis estimates, and the other incorporating both the current and prior data via informative priors in a Bayesian logistic regression model. All methods demonstrated a slight improvement in predictive performance upon incorporation of genetics. The two methods that incorporated external information showed the greatest receiver-operating-characteristic AUCs increase from 0.61 to 0.64. The value of our methods comparison is likely to lie in observations of performance similarities, rather than difference, between three approaches of very different resource requirements. The two methods that included external information performed best, but only marginally despite substantial differences in complexity.

Bayesian estimation of diameter distribution during harvesting

Abstract

Modelling the effect of temperature on height increment of Scots pine at high latitudes

Abstract

Modelling of crowded polymers elucidate effects of double-strand breaks in topological domains of bacterial chromosomes.

Using numerical simulations of pairs of long polymeric chains confined in microscopic cylinders, we investigate consequences of double-strand DNA breaks occurring in independent topological domains, such as these constituting bacterial chromosomes. Our simulations show a transition between segregated and mixed state upon linearization of one of the modelled topological domains. Our results explain how chromosomal organization into topological domains can fulfil two opposite conditions: (i) effectively repulse various loops from each other thus promoting chromosome separation and (ii) permit local DNA intermingling when one or more loops are broken and need to be repaired in a process that requires homology search between broken ends and their homologous sequences in closely positioned sister chromatid.

Linear prediction application for modelling the relationships between a large number of stand characteristics of Norway spruce stands

Abstract

Individual-based modelling and simulation: towards a better understanding of growth dynamics from small inocula

Postprint (published version)

Energy-based modelling and simulation of the interconnection of a back-to-back converter and a doubly-fed induction machine

This paper describes the port interconnection of two subsystems: a power electronics subsystem (a back-to-back AC/CA converter (B2B), coupled to a phase of the power grid), and an electromechanical subsystem (a doubly-fed induction machine (DFIM). The B2B is a variable structure system (VSS), due to presence of control-actuated switches: however, from a modelling simulation, as well as a control-design, point of view, it is sensible to consider modulated transformers (MTF in the bond graph language) instead of the pairs of complementary switches. The port-Hamiltonian models of both subsystems are presented and, using a power-preserving interconnection, the Hamiltonian description of the whole system is obtained; detailed bond graphs of all subsystems and the complete system are also provided. Using passivity-based controllers computed in the Hamiltonian formalism for both subsystems, the whole model is simulated; simulations are run to rest the correctness and efficiency of the Hamiltonian network modelling approach used in this work.

Quantitative modelling of transcription factor binding sites

Abstract One of the most important issues in molecular biology is to understand regulatory mechanisms that control gene expression. Gene expression is often regulated by proteins, called transcription factors which bind to short (5 to 20 base pairs),degenerate segments of DNA. Experimental efforts towards understanding the sequence specificity of transcription factors is laborious and expensive, but can be substantially accelerated with the use of computational predictions. This thesis describes the use of algorithms and resources for transcriptionfactor binding site analysis in addressing quantitative modelling, where probabilitic models are built to represent binding properties of a transcription factor and can be used to find new functional binding sites in genomes. Initially, an open-access database(HTPSELEX) was created, holding high quality binding sequences for two eukaryotic families of transcription factors namely CTF/NF1 and LEFT/TCF. The binding sequences were elucidated using a recently described experimental procedure called HTP-SELEX, that allows generation of large number (> 1000) of binding sites using mass sequencing technology. For each HTP-SELEX experiments we also provide accurate primary experimental information about the protein material used, details of the wet lab protocol, an archive of sequencing trace files, and assembled clone sequences of binding sequences. The database also offers reasonably large SELEX libraries obtained with conventional low-throughput protocols.The database is available at http://wwwisrec.isb-sib.ch/htpselex/ and and ftp://ftp.isrec.isb-sib.ch/pub/databases/htpselex. The Expectation-Maximisation(EM) algorithm is one the frequently used methods to estimate probabilistic models to represent the sequence specificity of transcription factors. We present computer simulations in order to estimate the precision of EM estimated models as a function of data set parameters(like length of initial sequences, number of initial sequences, percentage of nonbinding sequences). We observed a remarkable robustness of the EM algorithm with regard to length of training sequences and the degree of contamination. The HTPSELEX database and the benchmarked results of the EM algorithm formed part of the foundation for the subsequent project, where a statistical framework called hidden Markov model has been developed to represent sequence specificity of the transcription factors CTF/NF1 and LEF1/TCF using the HTP-SELEX experiment data. The hidden Markov model framework is capable of both predicting and classifying CTF/NF1 and LEF1/TCF binding sites. A covariance analysis of the binding sites revealed non-independent base preferences at different nucleotide positions, providing insight into the binding mechanism. We next tested the LEF1/TCF model by computing binding scores for a set of LEF1/TCF binding sequences for which relative affinities were determined experimentally using non-linear regression. The predicted and experimentally determined binding affinities were in good correlation.

Use of anisotropic modelling in electrical impedance tomography: description of method and preliminary assessment of utility in imaging brain function in the adult human head.

Electrical Impedance Tomography (EIT) is an imaging method which enables a volume conductivity map of a subject to be produced from multiple impedance measurements. It has the potential to become a portable non-invasive imaging technique of particular use in imaging brain function. Accurate numerical forward models may be used to improve image reconstruction but, until now, have employed an assumption of isotropic tissue conductivity. This may be expected to introduce inaccuracy, as body tissues, especially those such as white matter and the skull in head imaging, are highly anisotropic. The purpose of this study was, for the first time, to develop a method for incorporating anisotropy in a forward numerical model for EIT of the head and assess the resulting improvement in image quality in the case of linear reconstruction of one example of the human head. A realistic Finite Element Model (FEM) of an adult human head with segments for the scalp, skull, CSF, and brain was produced from a structural MRI. Anisotropy of the brain was estimated from a diffusion tensor-MRI of the same subject and anisotropy of the skull was approximated from the structural information. A method for incorporation of anisotropy in the forward model and its use in image reconstruction was produced. The improvement in reconstructed image quality was assessed in computer simulation by producing forward data, and then linear reconstruction using a sensitivity matrix approach. The mean boundary data difference between anisotropic and isotropic forward models for a reference conductivity was 50%. Use of the correct anisotropic FEM in image reconstruction, as opposed to an isotropic one, corrected an error of 24 mm in imaging a 10% conductivity decrease located in the hippocampus, improved localisation for conductivity changes deep in the brain and due to epilepsy by 4-17 mm, and, overall, led to a substantial improvement on image quality. This suggests that incorporation of anisotropy in numerical models used for image reconstruction is likely to improve EIT image quality.

Modelling tourist itineraries in heritage cities: Routes around Old The District of Girona

Tourists do not follow random behavior in heritage cities, but they are consciously or unconsciously guided by socially constructed itineraries. This article studies the shaping of these itineraries in a heritage city (Girona), using the direct observation methodology during the visit (following the tourists from a prudent distance and gathering all the information about their visits) and the conventional questionnaire at the end of the visit. It also establishes which the sociodemographic, environmental and informative factors are that explain this behavior. The simultaneous use of the observation method and a questionnaire was found to be a useful technique for analyzing tourists' behavior and the factors that explain this behavior

Priorities and hierarchical accounts of translation

This paper is a study of the concept of priority and its use together with the notion of hierarchy in academic writing and theoretical models of translation. Hierarchies and priorities can be implicit or explicit, prescribed, suggested or described. The paper starts, chronologically, wtih Nida and Levý’s hierarchical accounts of translation and follows their legacy in scholars as different as Newmark and Gutt. The concept of priorities is hinted at also in didactic models (Nord) as well as in norm-theoretical and accounts of translation (Toury and Chesterman) within Descriptive Translation Studies. All of these authors are analyzed and commented. The paper calls for a more systematic and straightforward account of translational priorities, and proposes a few conceptual tools that stem from this research model, including the concepts of ambition and richness of a translation. Finally, the paper concludes with an adaptation of Lakoff and Johnson’s view of prototypicality and its potential usefulness in research into and the understanding of translation.

Innovation Process Management and System Modelling

Työn tavoitteena oli perehtyä innovaatiojohtamisen ja järjestelmän soveltamiseen prosessiteollisuuden toimintaympäristöön. Kirjallisuuslähteitä apuna käyttäen perehdyttiin liiketoimintaympäristön innovaatiojohtamiselle asettamiin vaatimuksiin ja erilaisiin innovaatiojärjestelmiin. Olennaisena osana innovaatiojohtamiseen liittyy sidosryhmien tarpeiden ja niiden tarjoamien resurssien huomioiminen toiminnassa. Myöskin tuotekehityksen menetelmät ja työkalut ovat omalta osaltaan merkittävässä asemassa toiminnan tehokkuutta arvioitaessa. Innovaatiojärjestelmä tulee sopeuttaa yrityksen toimintoihin ja sen erityispiirteet huomioonottaen siten, että toiminnan johtaminen prosessina tuo yritykselle ja sen sidosryhmille lisäarvoa. Innovaatiojärjestelmän luominen yritykselle on ainayksilöllinen prosessi ja siihen ei ole olemassa yleispätevää menetelmää, joka voitaisiin ottaa käyttöön sellaisenaan. Yritys, jonka liiketoiminta keskittyy kuitupohjaisten pakkausmateriaalien valmistamiseen, joutuu täyttämään toiminnassaan materiaalintoimittajien, omien tuotantoprosessiensa ja asiakkaiden sekä jopa loppukäyttäjien uusille tuotteille luomat odotukset. Innovaatiojohtamista sävyttää toiminnan tulosten suuri epävarmuus ja sen vaativien aineellisten ja henkisten resurssien mittavuus. Innovaatiotoiminnan johtaminen prosessina, käyttäen hyväksi järjestelmämallia, tavoittelee systemaattista ja asetettujen kriteerien täyttämää lähestymistapaa tuotekehityksen ja uusien liiketoimintainnovaatioiden alueella. Kehitetyn mallin tulee palvella monimutkaista liiketoimintaympäristöä, jokatoisaalta perustuu tehokkaaseen massatuotantoon ja toisaalta pyrkii erilaistumaan palvelemalla sekä huomioimalla asiakkaidensa tuotteille asettamat vaatimukset.

Modelling of a Hydrogen Catalytic Recombiner for Nuclear Power Plant Containment Studies; Case: Siemens FR90/1-150 Recombiner in TONUS OD Code

Ydinvoimalaitokset on suunniteltu ja rakennettu niin, että niillä on kyky selviytyä erilaisista käyttöhäiriöistä ja onnettomuuksista ilman laitoksen vahingoittumista sekä väestön ja ympäristön vaarantumista. On erittäin epätodennäköistä, että ydinvoimalaitosonnettomuus etenee reaktorisydämen vaurioitumiseen asti, minkä seurauksena sydänmateriaalien hapettuminen voi tuottaa vetyä. Jäädytyspiirin rikkoutumisen myötä vety saattaa kulkeutua ydinvoimalaitoksen suojarakennukseen, jossa se voi muodostaa palavan seoksen ilman hapen kanssa ja palaa tai jopa räjähtää. Vetypalosta aiheutuvat lämpötila- ja painekuormitukset vaarantavat suojarakennuksen eheyden ja suojarakennuksen sisällä olevien turvajärjestelmien toimivuuden, joten tehokas ja luotettava vedynhallintajärjestelmä on tarpeellinen. Passiivisia autokatalyyttisiä vetyrekombinaattoreita käytetäänyhä useammissa Euroopan ydinvoimaitoksissa vedynhallintaan. Nämä rekombinaattorit poistavat vetyä katalyyttisellä reaktiolla vedyn reagoidessa katalyytin pinnalla hapen kanssa muodostaen vesihöyryä. Rekombinaattorit ovat täysin passiivisiaeivätkä tarvitse ulkoista energiaa tai operaattoritoimintaa käynnistyäkseen taitoimiakseen. Rekombinaattoreiden käyttäytymisen tutkimisellatähdätään niiden toimivuuden selvittämiseen kaikissa mahdollisissa onnettomuustilanteissa, niiden suunnittelun optimoimiseen sekä niiden optimaalisen lukumäärän ja sijainnin määrittämiseen suojarakennuksessa. Suojarakennuksen mallintamiseen käytetään joko keskiarvoistavia ohjelmia (Lumped parameter (LP) code), moniulotteisia virtausmalliohjelmia (Computational Fluid Dynamics, CFD) tai näiden yhdistelmiä. Rekombinaattoreiden mallintaminen on toteutettu näissä ohjelmissa joko kokeellisella, teoreettisella tai yleisellä (eng. Global Approach) mallilla. Tämä diplomityö sisältää tulokset TONUS OD-ohjelman sisältämän Siemens FR90/1-150 rekombinaattorin mallin vedynkulutuksen tarkistuslaskuista ja TONUS OD-ohjelmalla suoritettujen laskujen tulokset Siemens rekombinaattoreiden vuorovaikutuksista. TONUS on CEA:n (Commissariat à 1'En¬ergie Atomique) kehittämä LP (OD) ja CFD -vetyanalyysiohjelma, jota käytetään vedyn jakautumisen, palamisenja detonaation mallintamiseen. TONUS:sta käytetään myös vedynpoiston mallintamiseen passiivisilla autokatalyyttisillä rekombinaattoreilla. Vedynkulutukseen vaikuttavat tekijät eroteltiin ja tutkittiin yksi kerrallaan. Rekombinaattoreiden vuorovaikutuksia tutkittaessa samaan tilavuuteen sijoitettiin eri kokoisia ja eri lukumäärä rekombinaattoreita. Siemens rekombinaattorimalli TONUS OD-ohjelmassa laskee vedynkulutuksen kuten oletettiin ja tulokset vahvistavat TONUS OD-ohjelman fysikaalisen laskennan luotettavuuden. Mahdollisia paikallisia jakautumia tutkitussa tilavuudessa ei voitu havaita LP-ohjelmalla, koska se käyttäälaskennassa suureiden tilavuuskeskiarvoja. Paikallisten jakautumien tutkintaan tarvitaan CFD -laskentaohjelma.