Manuscripts

The aim of this chapter is three-fold: first, to explain systematically the multiple disciplines that have to be employed in the study of manuscripts; second, to review the evolution and development of methodologies used by the scholars who have shaped the present form of scholarship, and to chart outstanding problems that have yet to be resolved; and third, to offer some ideas of what future research might entail and in what way scholarship might unfold. Since numerous and disparate methodologies are employed in the study of Bach manuscripts, the discussions that follow will take nothing for granted, but will describe and define each one as it relates to understanding and reproducing, with as much accuracy as possible, Bach’s intentions in the manuscripts that contain his music.

Herd-level bovine tuberculosis risk factors: assessing the role of low-level badger population disturbance

Bovine TB (bTB) is endemic in Irish cattle and has eluded eradication despite considerable expenditure, amid debate over the relative roles of badgers and cattle in disease transmission. Using a comprehensive dataset from Northern Ireland (>10,000 km²; 29,513 cattle herds), we investigated interactions between host populations in one of the first large-scale risk factor analyses for new herd breakdowns to combine data on both species. Cattle risk factors (movements, international imports, bTB history, neighbours with bTB) were more strongly associated with herd risk than area-level measures of badger social group density, habitat suitability or persecution (sett disturbance). Highest risks were in areas of high badger social group density and high rates of persecution, potentially representing both responsive persecution of badgers in high cattle risk areas and effects of persecution on cattle bTB risk through badger social group disruption. Average badger persecution was associated with reduced cattle bTB risk (compared with high persecution areas), so persecution may contribute towards sustaining bTB hotspots; findings with important implications for existing and planned disease control programmes.

Synchronous Islanding Control in the Presence of Hydro-electric Generation

This paper introduces a novel load sharing algorithm to enable island synchronization. The system model used for development is based on an actual system for which historical measurement and fault data is available and is used to refine and test the algorithms performance and validity. The electrical system modelled is selected due to its high-level of hydroelectric generation and its history of islanding events. The process of developing the load sharing algorithm includes a number of steps. Firstly, the development of a simulation model to represent the case study accurately - this is validated by way of matching system behavior based on data from historical island events. Next, a generic island simulation is used to develop the load sharing algorithm. The algorithm is then tested against the validated simulation model representing the case study area selected. Finally, a laboratory setup is described which is used as validation method for the novel load sharing algorithm.

Whole Genome Sequencing Reveals Local Transmission Patterns of Mycobacterium bovis in Sympatric Cattle and Badger Populations

Whole genome sequencing (WGS) technology holds great promise as a tool for the forensic epidemiology of bacterial pathogens. It is likely to be particularly useful for studying the transmission dynamics of an observed epidemic involving a largely unsampled 'reservoir' host, as for bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in British and Irish cattle and badgers. BTB is caused by Mycobacterium bovis, a member of the M. tuberculosis complex that also includes the aetiological agent for human TB. In this study, we identified a spatio-temporally linked group of 26 cattle and 4 badgers infected with the same Variable Number Tandem Repeat (VNTR) type of M. bovis. Single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) between sequences identified differences that were consistent with bacterial lineages being persistent on or near farms for several years, despite multiple clear whole herd tests in the interim. Comparing WGS data to mathematical models showed good correlations between genetic divergence and spatial distance, but poor correspondence to the network of cattle movements or within-herd contacts. Badger isolates showed between zero and four SNP differences from the nearest cattle isolate, providing evidence for recent transmissions between the two hosts. This is the first direct genetic evidence of M. bovis persistence on farms over multiple outbreaks with a continued, ongoing interaction with local badgers. However, despite unprecedented resolution, directionality of transmission cannot be inferred at this stage. Despite the often notoriously long timescales between time of infection and time of sampling for TB, our results suggest that WGS data alone can provide insights into TB epidemiology even where detailed contact data are not available, and that more extensive sampling and analysis will allow for quantification of the extent and direction of transmission between cattle and badgers. © 2012 Biek et al.

A Fast Algorithm for Sparse Support Vector Machines for Mobile Computing Applications

This research presents a fast algorithm for projected support vector machines (PSVM) by selecting a basis vector set (BVS) for the kernel-induced feature space, the training points are projected onto the subspace spanned by the selected BVS. A standard linear support vector machine (SVM) is then produced in the subspace with the projected training points. As the dimension of the subspace is determined by the size of the selected basis vector set, the size of the produced SVM expansion can be specified. A two-stage algorithm is derived which selects and refines the basis vector set achieving a locally optimal model. The model expansion coefficients and bias are updated recursively for increase and decrease in the basis set and support vector set. The condition for a point to be classed as outside the current basis vector and selected as a new basis vector is derived and embedded in the recursive procedure. This guarantees the linear independence of the produced basis set. The proposed algorithm is tested and compared with an existing sparse primal SVM (SpSVM) and a standard SVM (LibSVM) on seven public benchmark classification problems. Our new algorithm is designed for use in the application area of human activity recognition using smart devices and embedded sensors where their sometimes limited memory and processing resources must be exploited to the full and the more robust and accurate the classification the more satisfied the user. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed algorithm. This work builds upon a previously published algorithm specifically created for activity recognition within mobile applications for the EU Haptimap project [1]. The algorithms detailed in this paper are more memory and resource efficient making them suitable for use with bigger data sets and more easily trained SVMs.

The Effect of Community-Based Specialist Palliative Care Teams on Place of Care

BACKGROUND: Prior research on community-based specialist palliative care teams used outcome measures of place of death and/or dichotomous outcome measures of acute care use in the last two weeks of life. However, existing research seldom measured the diverse places of care used and their timing prior to death.

OBJECTIVE: The study objective was to examine the place of care in the last 30 days of life.

METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, patients who received care from a specialist palliative care team (exposed) were matched by propensity score to patients who received usual care in the community (unexposed) in Ontario, Canada. Measured was the percentage of patients in each place of care in the last month of life as a proportion of the total cohort.

RESULTS: After matching, 3109 patients were identified in each group, where 79% had cancer and 77% received end-of-life home care. At 30 days compared to 7 days before death, the exposed group's proportions rose from 33% to 41% receiving home care and 14% to 15% in hospital, whereas the unexposed group's proportions rose from 28% to 32% receiving home care and 16% to 22% in hospital. Linear trend analysis (proportion over time) showed that the exposed group used significantly more home care services and fewer hospital days (p < 0.001) than the unexposed group. On the last day of life (place of death), the exposed group had 18% die in an in-patient hospital bed compared to 29% in usual care.

CONCLUSION: Examining place of care in the last month can effectively illustrate the service use trajectory over time.

Gene-associated markers provide tools for tackling illegal fishing and false eco-certification

Illegal, Unreported and Unregulated fishing has had a major role in the overexploitation of global fish populations. In response, international regulations have been imposed and many fisheries have been 'eco-certified' by consumer organizations, but methods for independent control of catch certificates and eco-labels are urgently needed. Here we show that, by using gene-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms, individual marine fish can be assigned back to population of origin with unprecedented high levels of precision. By applying high differentiation single nucleotide polymorphism assays, in four commercial marine fish, on a pan-European scale, we find 93-100% of individuals could be correctly assigned to origin in policy-driven case studies. We show how case-targeted single nucleotide polymorphism assays can be created and forensically validated, using a centrally maintained and publicly available database. Our results demonstrate how application of gene-associated markers will likely revolutionize origin assignment and become highly valuable tools for fighting illegal fishing and mislabelling worldwide.

Addition of docetaxel, zoledronic acid, or both to first-line long-term hormone therapy in prostate cancer (STAMPEDE): survival results from an adaptive, multiarm, multistage, platform randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND: Long-term hormone therapy has been the standard of care for advanced prostate cancer since the 1940s. STAMPEDE is a randomised controlled trial using a multiarm, multistage platform design. It recruits men with high-risk, locally advanced, metastatic or recurrent prostate cancer who are starting first-line long-term hormone therapy. We report primary survival results for three research comparisons testing the addition of zoledronic acid, docetaxel, or their combination to standard of care versus standard of care alone.

METHODS: Standard of care was hormone therapy for at least 2 years; radiotherapy was encouraged for men with N0M0 disease to November, 2011, then mandated; radiotherapy was optional for men with node-positive non-metastatic (N+M0) disease. Stratified randomisation (via minimisation) allocated men 2:1:1:1 to standard of care only (SOC-only; control), standard of care plus zoledronic acid (SOC + ZA), standard of care plus docetaxel (SOC + Doc), or standard of care with both zoledronic acid and docetaxel (SOC + ZA + Doc). Zoledronic acid (4 mg) was given for six 3-weekly cycles, then 4-weekly until 2 years, and docetaxel (75 mg/m(2)) for six 3-weekly cycles with prednisolone 10 mg daily. There was no blinding to treatment allocation. The primary outcome measure was overall survival. Pairwise comparisons of research versus control had 90% power at 2·5% one-sided α for hazard ratio (HR) 0·75, requiring roughly 400 control arm deaths. Statistical analyses were undertaken with standard log-rank-type methods for time-to-event data, with hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs derived from adjusted Cox models. This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT00268476) and ControlledTrials.com (ISRCTN78818544).

FINDINGS: 2962 men were randomly assigned to four groups between Oct 5, 2005, and March 31, 2013. Median age was 65 years (IQR 60-71). 1817 (61%) men had M+ disease, 448 (15%) had N+/X M0, and 697 (24%) had N0M0. 165 (6%) men were previously treated with local therapy, and median prostate-specific antigen was 65 ng/mL (IQR 23-184). Median follow-up was 43 months (IQR 30-60). There were 415 deaths in the control group (347 [84%] prostate cancer). Median overall survival was 71 months (IQR 32 to not reached) for SOC-only, not reached (32 to not reached) for SOC + ZA (HR 0·94, 95% CI 0·79-1·11; p=0·450), 81 months (41 to not reached) for SOC + Doc (0·78, 0·66-0·93; p=0·006), and 76 months (39 to not reached) for SOC + ZA + Doc (0·82, 0·69-0·97; p=0·022). There was no evidence of heterogeneity in treatment effect (for any of the treatments) across prespecified subsets. Grade 3-5 adverse events were reported for 399 (32%) patients receiving SOC, 197 (32%) receiving SOC + ZA, 288 (52%) receiving SOC + Doc, and 269 (52%) receiving SOC + ZA + Doc.

INTERPRETATION: Zoledronic acid showed no evidence of survival improvement and should not be part of standard of care for this population. Docetaxel chemotherapy, given at the time of long-term hormone therapy initiation, showed evidence of improved survival accompanied by an increase in adverse events. Docetaxel treatment should become part of standard of care for adequately fit men commencing long-term hormone therapy.

FUNDING: Cancer Research UK, Medical Research Council, Novartis, Sanofi-Aventis, Pfizer, Janssen, Astellas, NIHR Clinical Research Network, Swiss Group for Clinical Cancer Research.

Use of bacterial whole-genome sequencing to investigate local persistence and spread in bovine tuberculosis

Mycobacterium bovis is the causal agent of bovine tuberculosis, one of the most important diseases currently facing the UK cattle industry. Here, we use high-density whole genome sequencing (WGS) in a defined sub-population of M. bovis in 145 cattle across 66 herd breakdowns to gain insights into local spread and persistence. We show that despite low divergence among isolates, WGS can in principle expose contributions of under-sampled host populations to M. bovis transmission. However, we demonstrate that in our data such a signal is due to molecular type switching, which had been previously undocumented for M. bovis. Isolates from farms with a known history of direct cattle movement between them did not show a statistical signal of higher genetic similarity. Despite an overall signal of genetic isolation by distance, genetic distances also showed no apparent relationship with spatial distance among affected farms over distances <5 km. Using simulations, we find that even over the brief evolutionary timescale covered by our data, Bayesian phylogeographic approaches are feasible. Applying such approaches showed that M. bovis dispersal in this system is heterogeneous but slow overall, averaging 2 km/year. These results confirm that widespread application of WGS to M. bovis will bring novel and important insights into the dynamics of M. bovis spread and persistence, but that the current questions most pertinent to control will be best addressed using approaches that more directly integrate WGS with additional epidemiological data.

Retinoid X receptor activation reverses age-related deficiencies in myelin debris phagocytosis and remyelination

The efficiency of central nervous system remyelination declines with age. This is in part due to an age-associated decline in the phagocytic removal of myelin debris, which contains inhibitors of oligodendrocyte progenitor cell differentiation. In this study, we show that expression of genes involved in the retinoid X receptor pathway are decreased with ageing in both myelin-phagocytosing human monocytes and mouse macrophages using a combination of in vivo and in vitro approaches. Disruption of retinoid X receptor function in young macrophages, using the antagonist HX531, mimics ageing by reducing myelin debris uptake. Macrophage-specific RXRα (Rxra) knockout mice revealed that loss of function in young mice caused delayed myelin debris uptake and slowed remyelination after experimentally-induced demyelination. Alternatively, retinoid X receptor agonists partially restored myelin debris phagocytosis in aged macrophages. The agonist bexarotene, when used in concentrations achievable in human subjects, caused a reversion of the gene expression profile in multiple sclerosis patient monocytes to a more youthful profile and enhanced myelin debris phagocytosis by patient cells. These results reveal the retinoid X receptor pathway as a positive regulator of myelin debris clearance and a key player in the age-related decline in remyelination that may be targeted by available or newly-developed therapeutics.

Practical Application of Glaucoma Care in Different Societies

Diagnosis of glaucoma and delivery of effective treatment is difficult everywhere, but additional challenges are evident in less affluent parts of the world, where the largest numbers of patients with this disease are living. The problems of providing good glaucoma care are examined with especial reference to south-east Asia including China and India and countries in sub-Saharan Africa. The relatively low priority given to glaucoma by vision-related and other nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) due to difficulties faced in delivering effective glaucoma screening and therapeutic interventions are discussed, together with possible future directions for increasing resources and priority for glaucoma care in poor areas.

Species composition of coastal dune vegetation in Scotland has proved resistant to climate change over a third of a century

Climate change is expected to have an impact on plant communities as increased temperatures are expected to drive individual species' distributions polewards. The results of a revisitation study after c. 34years of 89 coastal sites in Scotland, UK, were examined to assess the degree of shifts in species composition that could be accounted for by climate change. There was little evidence for either species retreat northwards or for plots to become more dominated by species with a more southern distribution. At a few sites where significant change occurred, the changes were accounted for by the invasion, or in one instance the removal, of woody species. Also, the vegetation types that showed the most sensitivity to change were all early successional types and changes were primarily the result of succession rather than climate-driven changes. Dune vegetation appears resistant to climate change impacts on the vegetation, either as the vegetation is inherently resistant to change, management prevents increased dominance of more southerly species or because of dispersal limitation to geographically isolated sites.