A Bootstrap Neural Network Based Heterogeneous Panel Unit Root Test: Application to Exchange Rates

This paper proposes a bootstrap artificial neural network based panel unit root test in a dynamic heterogeneous panel context. An application to a panel of bilateral real exchange rate series with the US Dollar from the 20 major OECD countries is provided to investigate the Purchase Power Parity (PPP). The combination of neural network and bootstrapping significantly changes the findings of the economic study in favour of PPP.

Off-the-Record Target Zones: Theory with an Application to Hong Kongs Currency Board

This paper provides a modelling framework for evaluating the exchange rate dynamics of a target zone regime with undisclosed bands. We generalize the literature to allow for asymmetric one-sided regimes. Market participants' beliefs concerning an undisclosed band change as they learn more about central bank intervention policy. We apply the model to Hong Kong's one-sided currency board mechanism. In autumn 2003, the Hong Kong dollar appreciated from close to 7.80 per US dollar to 7.70, as investors feared that the currency board would be abandoned. In the wake of this appreciation, the monetary authorities finally revamped the regime as a symmetric two-sided system with a narrow exchange rate band.

J2EE tienda virtual application framework

En el siguiente documento podrá encontrar de una forma clara y entendedora, a través de la creación de un sencillo aplicativo, el mecanismo para la creación de una aplicación J2EE basada en el framework de desarrollo Yakarta Struts. En el mismo partirá desde cero, desde el inicio en la captación de requerimientos, pasando por la etapa de análisis y diseño y la posterior implementación.

Prospective Decommissioning Activity and Infrastructure Availability in the UKCS

NORTH SEA STUDY OCCASIONAL PAPER No. 122

Accurate performance of a rat model of schizophrenia in the water maze depends on visual cue availability and stability: a distortion in cognitive mapping abilities?

Rats were treated postnatally (PND 5-16) with BSO (l-buthionine-(S,R)-sulfoximine) in an animal model of schizophrenia based on transient glutathione deficit. The BSO treated rats were impaired in patrolling a maze or a homing table when adult, yet demonstrated preserved escape learning, place discrimination and reversal in a water maze task [37]. In the present work, BSO rats' performance in the water maze was assessed in conditions controlling for the available visual cues. First, in a completely curtained environment with two salient controlled cues, BSO rats showed little accuracy compared to control rats. Secondly, pre-trained BSO rats were impaired in reaching the familiar spatial position when curtains partially occluded different portions of the room environment in successive sessions. The apparently preserved place learning in a classical water maze task thus appears to require the stability and the richness of visual landmarks from the surrounding environment. In other words, the accuracy of BSO rats in place and reversal learning is impaired in a minimal cue condition or when the visual panorama changes between trials. However, if the panorama remains rich and stable between trials, BSO rats are equally efficient in reaching a familiar position or in learning a new one. This suggests that the BSO accurate performance in the water maze does not satisfy all the criteria for a cognitive map based navigation on the integration of polymodal cues. It supports the general hypothesis of a binding deficit in BSO rats.

Recommandations de pratique clinique dans la schizophrénie : de la théorie à la mise en application

Résumé: Dans le cadre d'une étude rétrospective au sein d'une unité de réhabilitation ,nous avons cherché à examiner le degré de respect de recommandations de pratique clinique (RPC) abordant le traitement pharmacologique au long cours de la schizophrénie, par des médecins qui n'en ont qu'une connaissance indirecte. « The Expert Consensus Guideline for the treatment of schizophrenia » (« ECGTS ») a été retenu comme référence sur la base d'une comparaison avec cinq autres RPC principales. Sur un collectif de 20 patients, les recommandations de «l'ECGTS» sont totalement respectées dans 65 % des cas, partiellement respectées dans 10% et non respectées dans 25 %, démontrant ainsi que la pratique clinique est clairement perfectible (principalement dans le traitement des symptômes psychotiques et dépressifs). Cependant, le respect des RPC ne garantit pas forcément la résolution de tous les problèmes cliniques rencontrés : 12 patients sur 20 présentent des effets secondaires à l'évaluation clinique, et pour 8 d'entre eux, les recommandations à ce niveau sont respectées. Notre étude montre cependant que le choix et l'application d'une RPC n'est pas simple. Les RPC actuelles donnent peu ou pas d'instrument de mesure, ni de critère précis pour évaluer les problèmes cliniques auxquels elles font référence. L'avenir appartient donc à des RPC qui proposent, outre les recommandations cliniques elles-mêmes, les moyens de leur vérification et de leur application sur le terrain.

Consumption Expenditures in Economic Impact Studies: An Application to University Students

This paper examines how appropriately to attribute economic impact to consumption expenditures. Consumption expenditures are often treated as either wholly endogenous or wholly exogenous, following a distinction from Input-Output analysis. For many applications, such as those focusing on the impacts of tourism or benefits systems, such binomial assumptions are not satisfactory. We argue that consumption is neither wholly endogenous nor wholly exogenous but that the degree of this distinction is rather an empirical matter. We set out a general model for the treatment of consumption expenditures and illustrate its application through the case of university students. We examine individual student groups and how the impacts of students at particular institutions. Furthermore we take into account the binding budget constraint of public expenditures (as is the case for devolved regions in the UK)and examine how this affects the impact attributed to students' consumption expenditures.

The Argentine ant (Linepithema humile) invasion effects on Mediterranean forests’ trophic web: blue tit (Parus caeruleus) reproduction and development

Les invasions biològiques representen una greu amenaça per al funcionament dels ecosistemes i per a la preservació de la biodiversitat.. La formiga argentina (Linepithema humile) està considerada com una de les 100 espècies invasores més nocives. Prospera en extenses àrees de clima mediterrani de regions temperades i subtropicals de tots els continents amb l’excepció de l’Antàrtida. És una formiga dominant i una competidora agressiva que mitjançant múltiples mecanismes, des de predació directe a competència, produeix efectes negatius en una amplia varietat de taxons, principalment formigues i altres artròpodes, però també vertebrats. S’ha investigat, per primera vegada, els efectes de la formiga invasiva sobre les comunitats d’artròpodes de fullatge i com aquestes pertorbacions es transmeten en la xarxa tròfica del bosc esclerofil•le mediterrani. En les suredes estudiades la invasió de formiga argentina és causa directe de la extinció local de la gran majoria de poblacions de formigues natives. En el període mostrejat s’han constatat també impactes negatius en la diversitat i en l’abundància d’artròpodes natius en les capçades dels arbres, particularment d’erugues. Una avaluació preliminar basada únicament amb dades del 2005 indica que, reduint la disponibilitat d’erugues, la formiga argentina empobreix l’hàbitat reproductiu de la mallerenga blava (Parus caeruleus). La mallerenga blava basa la dieta insectívora estricte de la seva pollada fonamentalment en les erugues. No hem detectat impactes en l’èxit reproductiu de les mallerengues blaves en zones envaïdes. Els polls crescuts en àrees envaïdes assoleixen una condició física similar als de les zones no envaïdes, però la reducció en la disponibilitat d’erugues associada a la invasió de formiga argentina es tradueix en un creixement descompassat i en una menor mida estructural del polls volanders. Així, les pertorbacions en la comunitat d’artròpodes associades a la invasió de la formiga argentina promouen efectes bottom-up que acaben perjudicant el desenvolupament dels polls de mallerenga blava.

Methods for field detection of resistance to temephos in simuliids. Larval esterase level and topical application of the insecticide to adults

Two practical field methods for indirect detection of simuliid populations resistant to temephos are proposed. The first is based on high esterase activity in resistant larvae and involves adaptations of a filter paper test in which faintly stained spots indicate susceptible populations and strongly stained ones reveal populations resistant to temephos. The second is based on the resistance to the larvicide when adults are topically exposed, and involves the use of diagnostic doses obtained by the comparison between the LD50 for susceptible and resistant populations. The relevance of such methods is discussed in order to help resistance detection in Simulium pertinax Kollar control programmes.

Indirect costs of parasitism are shaped by variation in the type of immune challenge and food availability

Parasites can inflict indirect fitness costs to their hosts by eliciting costly immune responses. These costs depend on the type and amount of immunostimulants presented to the host immune system but also on the amount of resources available to fuel host immune responses. Here, we investigated how the relative costs of two different types of immune challenge are modulated by variation in food availability. We injected nestling tawny owls (Strix aluco) with either 10 mu g of phytohaemagglutinin (PHA) or 20 mu g of lipopolysaccharide (LPS), and subsequently raised them under two different food regimes (food-restricted vs. ad libitum). After controlling for food consumption, we found that LPS-injected nestlings lost more body mass than PHA-injected ones only when food-restricted. We also found that body mass gain of owlets fed ad libitum decreased with the intensity of the skin swelling response against LPS, but not PHA. These experimental and correlative results suggest that nestling tawny owls suffered greater immune costs when treated with LPS than PHA, and that variation in the costs of two different types of immune challenge can be exacerbated under conditions of low food availability. Our study highlights the importance of taking into consideration the interplay between host immunity and nutrition in the study of indirect costs of parasitism.

Testing for poverty dominance: an application to Canada

The paper proposes and applies statistical tests for poverty dominance that check for whether poverty comparisons can be made robustly over ranges of poverty lines and classes of poverty indices. This helps provide both normative and statistical confidence in establishing poverty rankings across distributions. The tests, which can take into account the complex sampling procedures that are typically used by statistical agencies to generate household-level surveys, are implemented using the Canadian Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics (SLID) for 1996, 1999 and 2002. Although the yearly cumulative distribution functions cross at the lower tails of the distributions, the more recent years tend to dominate earlier years for a relatively wide range of poverty lines. Failing to take into account SLID's sampling variability (as is sometimes done) can inflate significantly one's confidence in ranking poverty. Taking into account SLID's complex sampling design (as has not been done before) can also decrease substantially the range of poverty lines over which a poverty ranking can be inferred.

Comparing population distributions from bin-aggregated sample data: an application to historical height data from France

This paper develops a methodology to estimate the entire population distributions from bin-aggregated sample data. We do this through the estimation of the parameters of mixtures of distributions that allow for maximal parametric flexibility. The statistical approach we develop enables comparisons of the full distributions of height data from potential army conscripts across France's 88 departments for most of the nineteenth century. These comparisons are made by testing for differences-of-means stochastic dominance. Corrections for possible measurement errors are also devised by taking advantage of the richness of the data sets. Our methodology is of interest to researchers working on historical as well as contemporary bin-aggregated or histogram-type data, something that is still widely done since much of the information that is publicly available is in that form, often due to restrictions due to political sensitivity and/or confidentiality concerns.

Estudi de la desadsorció del pirè amb diferents surfactants en tres sòls artificials

Un dels problemes associats a la remeiació de contaminants hidròfobs és la seva poca disponibilitat. Es considera que un contaminant està disponible quan roman a la fase líquida del medi, ja sigui solubilitzat o en forma d’emulsió. Els surfactants són substàncies anfifíliques que promouen la transferència de compostos hidròfobs de la fase sòlida a la líquida. En aquest estudi s’escull el pirè com a representant dels hidrocarburs aromàtics policíclics i tres surfactants no iònics: un àmpliament citat a la bibliografia científica (Tween 80) i dos comercials (Gold Crew, BS-400). L’estudi es fa amb tres mescles d’argila i sorra amb diferents proporcions. La concentració micel·lar crítica (CMC) s’assoleix abans en sòls amb poc contingut en argila. L’eficiència dels surfactants està estretament relacionada amb la proporció d’argila i sorra. A concentracions molt per sobre de la CMC no s’observa una relació entre l’eficiència i la quantitat d’argila. El Tween 80 ha donat millors resultats que el Gold Crew i el BS-400, sense que aquest darrer no hagi presentat desadsorció de pirè.

Migration and trade: Theory with an Application to the Eastern- Western European Integration

The remarkable increase in trade flows and in migratory flows of highly educated people are two important features of globalization of the last decades. This paper extends a two-country model of inter- and intraindustry trade to a rich environment featuring technological differences, skill differences and the possibility of international labor mobility. The model is used to explain the patterns of trade and migration as countries remove barriers to trade and to labor mobility. We parameterize the model to match the features of the Western and Eastern European members of the EU and analyze first the effects of the trade liberalization which occured between 1989 and 2004, and then the gains and losses from migration which are expected to occur if legal barriers to labor mobility are substantially reduced. The lower barriers to migration would result in significant migration of skilled workers from Eastern European countries. Interestingly, this would not only benefit the migrants and most Western European workers but, via trade, it would also benefit the workers remaining in Eastern Europe. Key Words: Skilled Migration, Gains from Variety, Real Wages, Eastern-Western Europe. JEL Codes: F12, F22, J61.

Disseminated M. avium complex infection in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study: declining incidence, improved prognosis and discontinuation of maintenance therapy.

Introduction of potent antiretroviral combination therapy (ART) has reduced overall morbidity and mortality amongst HIV-infected adults. Some prophylactic regimes against opportunistic infections can be discontinued in patients under successful ART. (1) The influence of the availability of ART on incidence and mortality of disseminated M. avium Complex infection (MAC). (2) The safety of discontinuation of maintenance therapy against MAC in patients on ART. The Swiss HIV-Cohort Study, a prospective multicentre study of HIV-infected adults. Patients with a nadir CD4 count below 50 cells/mm3 were considered at risk for MAC and contributed to total follow-up time for calculating the incidence. Survival analysis was performed by using Kaplan Meier and Cox proportional hazards methods. Safety of discontinuation of maintenance therapy was evaluated by review of the medical notes. 398 patients were diagnosed with MAC from 1990 to 1999. 350 had a previous CD4 count below 50 cells/mm3. A total of 3208 patients had a nadir CD4 count of less than 50 cells/mm3 during the study period and contributed to a total follow-up of 6004 person-years. The incidence over the whole study period was 5.8 events per 100 person-years. In the time period of available ART the incidence of MAC was significantly reduced (1.4 versus 8.8 events per 100 person-years, p < 0.001). Being diagnosed after 1995 was the most powerful predictor of better survival (adjusted hazard ratio for death: 0.27; p < 0.001). None of 24 patients discontinuing maintenance therapy while on ART experienced recurrence of MAC during a total follow-up of 56.6 person-years (upper 95% confidence limit 5.3 per 100 person-years). Introducing ART has markedly reduced the risk of MAC for HIV-infected individuals with a history of very low CD4 counts. Survival after diagnosis of MAC has improved after ART became available. In patients responding to ART, discontinuation of maintenance therapy against M. avium may be safe.