Análise de métodos para detecção de mudanças estruturais em séries temporais climáticas

The time series analysis has played an increasingly important role in weather and climate studies. The success of these studies depends crucially on the knowledge of the quality of climate data such as, for instance, air temperature and rainfall data. For this reason, one of the main challenges for the researchers in this field is to obtain homogeneous series. A time series of climate data is considered homogeneous when the values of the observed data can change only due to climatic factors, i.e., without any interference from external non-climatic factors. Such non-climatic factors may produce undesirable effects in the time series, as unrealistic homogeneity breaks, trends and jumps. In the present work it was investigated climatic time series for the city of Natal, RN, namely air temperature and rainfall time series, for the period spanning from 1961 to 2012. The main purpose was to carry out an analysis in order to check the occurrence of homogeneity breaks or trends in the series under investigation. To this purpose, it was applied some basic statistical procedures, such as normality and independence tests. The occurrence of trends was investigated by linear regression analysis, as well as by the Spearman and Mann-Kendall tests. The homogeneity was investigated by the SNHT, as well as by the Easterling-Peterson and Mann-Whitney-Pettit tests. Analyzes with respect to normality showed divergence in their results. The von Neumann ratio test showed that in the case of the air temperature series the data are not independent and identically distributed (iid), whereas for the rainfall series the data are iid. According to the applied testings, both series display trends. The mean air temperature series displays an increasing trend, whereas the rainfall series shows an decreasing trend. Finally, the homogeneity tests revealed that all series under investigations present inhomogeneities, although they breaks depend on the applied test. In summary, the results showed that the chosen techniques may be applied in order to verify how well the studied time series are characterized. Therefore, these results should be used as a guide for further investigations about the statistical climatology of Natal or even of any other place.

Análise da atuação do Ministério Público Estadual na assistência materno infantil do Rio Grande do Norte

Maternal and infant mortality have become a serious public health problem in Brazil, especially in northeasternand northern regions.In RioGrande do Norte, the high rates ofdeathsofmothersandbabies haveconcerned not onlythehealthauthorities andjusticeagenciessuch as the prosecution service. In 2011, State Public Ministry (MPE) has developed a proposition which was called “Nascer com Dignidade”, focused on the monitoring ofcare givenin prenatal, childbirth andpost childbirthin the cities. The aim of thisstudy was toinvestigate how the intervention of MPE works in maternal and child care. The method adopted to survey data was the case study by analyzing the skills of the reports which were carried out in four of the eight Public Health Regional Units (URSAP).A total of 26municipalities were chosenand the results showfragilityparticularly inprenatal care which can result in complicationsin childbirthand postpartumlike:incomplete health family teams(in05cities), lack of access orinaccessibility to laboratory tests(16 cities) and lack of the pregnant woman'sattachment to thebirthing place(in26 cities). Based on this reality, MPE has adopted relevant attitudes as filing public civil suits, compliance of Conduct Adjustment Declaration in the municipal management and performing interventions in heath care centers and maternity clinics of the state. Thereforeit is known thatPublic Ministryis of paramount importanceto indicatethe necessaryadjustmentsto addressinfant and maternalmortalityin the state (mean of 65/100,000 and16/100,000respectively) and give the city hall the responsibility for the health care quality provided to their citizens. These factors demand theprinciples ofuniversality and integrality to be performed in order to reduce social inequities.

Jornalismo público em questão: uma análise do TVU Notícias

Esta dissertação analisa um programa jornalístico da TV Universitária do RN e sua possível contribuição para a formação cidadã. O objetivo principal é analisar se o telejornal TVU Notícias contribui para a formação cidadã dos seus telespectadores, a partir das escolhas dos assuntos e da angulação das matérias exibidas no programa. Busca-se compreender os princípios, os conceitos e as práticas do jornalismo público, movimento formado por um grupo de jornalistas norte-americanos que pretendiam recuperar a ética e os princípios democráticos no processo de formulação de notícias. Pretende-se apresentar e analisar o jornalismo público como uma forma possível de desenvolver a cidadania e verificar se os conceitos que conduzem este tipo de jornalismo podem ser encontrados no jornalismo da televisão pública brasileira. Para consecução do objetivo deste trabalho, foi realizada pesquisa bibliográfica acerca do jornalismo público, da evolução do jornalismo, dos efeitos da mídia e do conceito de TV pública. Foi, também, realizada pesquisa empírica através da observação do processo de produção do programa, relacionando-se as matéria/pautas, revendo-se os arquivos dos textos das matérias, e para complementar o estudo assistiu-se os áudios das matérias gravados em mídia DVD. A análise envolveu 12 programas e 12 matérias veiculados no período de 2009 a 2014. Os resultados da pesquisa permitiram constatar que a amostra das notícias apresentadas no programa sugere que os assuntos agendados são, em sua maioria, de interesse público e valor social, mas carecem de mais contextualização, profundidade e pluralidade de fontes. A partir desses resultados e tendo como diretriz o papel e a função da TV pública, concluiu-se que para o TVU Notícias possa contribuir efetivamente para a formação de seus telespectadores precisa superar a superficialidade das matérias apresentadas, aproximando-se mais do jornalismo que se espera de uma TV pública.

Análise da imunoexpressão da podoplanina e da triptase em carcinoma epidermóide de língua e sua relação com parâmetros clinicopatológicos

Oral tongue squamous cell carcinoma (OTSCC) has an aggressive biological behavior, with a high propensity for the development of lymph node metastases. In this context, lymphangiogenesis is considered an important phenomenon for the spread of tumor cells and may be influenced by microenvironmental stimuli. Mast cells have been implicated in tumor progression, although their influence in the formation of lymphatic vessels is not well established. The aim of this study was to analyze, in a case series of OTSCC (n=50), possible correlations between lymphatic vessel density (LVD), mast cell count and clinicopathological features, including tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) stage, histological grade of malignancy (Bryne, 1998), and nodal metastasis. LVD was established as the mean number of lymphatic vessels immunostained by anti-podoplanin (D2-40) antibody, identified in five microscopic fields (200x). For the analysis of mast cells, tryptase-immunoreactive cells were quantified in five fields (400x). Both immunostainings were analyzed in the tumor center and invasion front. Intratumoral lymphatic density (ILD) was higher in cases in advanced clinical stages (III-IV), compared to those in initial stages (I-II), as well as in metastatic cases in respect of non-metastatic (p<0,05). There were no statistically significant differences between low-grade and high-grade malignancy cases with respect to ILD (p>0,05). Peritumoral lymphatic density (PLD) and mast cell counts showed no significant relations with any of the clinicopathological parameters evaluated (p>0,05). Also there were no significant correlations between LVD and mast cell counts, whether in intratumoral (r = -0,004; p=0,977) or peritumoral region (r = -0,154; p=0,285). The results of the present study suggest that intratumoral lymphatic vessels may contribute in part to the progression of OTSCC, although PLD may be insufficient to justify differences in biological behavior. This supports the hypothesis of involvement of other mechanisms in metastatic spread of malignant cells, which could complement the effects of lymphangiogenesis. Although mast cells perform several pro- and antitumoral functions, they do not appear to directly influence aggressiveness of OTSCC. In addition, the quantity of these cells may not be essential for lymphatic vessel formation.

Classificador máquina de suporte vetorial com análise de Fourier aplicada em dados de EEG e EMG

The classifier support vector machine is used in several problems in various areas of knowledge. Basically the method used in this classier is to end the hyperplane that maximizes the distance between the groups, to increase the generalization of the classifier. In this work, we treated some problems of binary classification of data obtained by electroencephalography (EEG) and electromyography (EMG) using Support Vector Machine with some complementary techniques, such as: Principal Component Analysis to identify the active regions of the brain, the periodogram method which is obtained by Fourier analysis to help discriminate between groups and Simple Moving Average to eliminate some of the existing noise in the data. It was developed two functions in the software R, for the realization of training tasks and classification. Also, it was proposed two weights systems and a summarized measure to help on deciding in classification of groups. The application of these techniques, weights and the summarized measure in the classier, showed quite satisfactory results, where the best results were an average rate of 95.31% to visual stimuli data, 100% of correct classification for epilepsy data and rates of 91.22% and 96.89% to object motion data for two subjects.

Termos de troca, preço das commodities e o crescimento brasileiro : uma análise sob o prisma da restrição externa

This study aims to investigate the relationship between terms of trade and the long-term growth of Brazilian economy, from the perspective of external constraint, between the period 1994 to 2014. For this purpose, it is based on Thirlwall's (1979) original contribution, in order to empirically test the terms of trade contribution for determining the Brazilian growth potential product equivalent with Balance of Payments equilibriun. Using cointegration method, which seeks to analyze the long-term relationship between the variables, and subdividing the period into two sub-periods, 1994-2004 and 2004-2014, we estimate and compare real and hypothetical income elasticities and predicted and observed growth rates, with and without the terms of trade, for each period. The obteined results show that the inclusion of terms of trade in the empirical procedure to test the validity of Thirlwall's Law lead to higher growth rates obtained by the model (hypothetical), for the entire period 1994-2014 and for the sub-period 2004 -2014. This "theoretical" relaxation of the external constraint, caused by the inclusion of the terms of trade in traditional Thirlwall's rule, overestimated the average real growth rate for these periods, while the traditional Thirlwall's Law - without terms of trade - has adapted better to the real behavior of Brazilian economy. Thus, despite having contributed potentially for the relaxation of external constraint on Brazilian growth, the effect of terms of trade may have been offset by the negative performance of other Balance of Payments components, as capital flows and interest, profits and dividends payments abroad.

Análise da variabilidade da marcha de indivíduos com comprometimento articular unilateral do quadril por meio de sensores inerciais

Data variability analysis has been the focus of a number of studies seeking to capture differences of patterns generated by biological systems. Although several studies related to gait employ the analysis of variability in their observations, we noticed a lack of such information for subjects with unilateral coxarthrosis undergoing total hip arthroplasty (THA). To tackle this deficiency of information, we conducted a study of the gait on a treadmill with10 healthy subjects (30.7 ± 6.75 years old) from G1 and 24 subjects (65 ± 8.5 years old) with unilateral THA from G2. Thus, by means of two inertial measurement units (IMUs) positioned in the pelvis, we have developed a detection method of the step and stride for calculating these intervals and extract the signal characteristics. The variability analysis (coefficient of variation) was performed, taking into consideration the extracted features and the step and stride times. The average and the 95% confidence interval estimate for the average of the step and stride times to each group were in agreement with literature. The mean coefficient of variation for the step and stride times was calculated and compared among groups by the Kruskal-Wallis test with 95% confidence interval. Each component X, Y and Z of the two IMUs (accelerometer, magnetometer and gyroscope) corresponded to a variable. The resultants of each sensor, the linear velocity (accelerometers) and the instantaneous angular displacement (gyroscopes) completed the set of variables. The characteristics were extracted from the signals of these variables to check the variability in the G1 and G2 groups . There were significant differences (p <0.05) between G1 and G2 for the average of the step and stride times. The variability of the step and stride, as well as the variability of all other evaluated characteristics were higher for the group G2 (p <0.05). The method proposed in this study proved to be suitable for the measuring of variability of biomechanical parameters related to the extracted features. All the extracted features categorized the groups. The G2 group showed greater variability, so it is possible that the age and the pathological condition of the hip both contributed to this result.

O DISCURSO AMBIENTAL JORNALÍSTICO, POLÍTICO E EMPRESARIAL EM ÂMBITO LOCAL: uma proposta de análise

Esta tese tem como tema principal o discurso ambiental local. Trata-se de uma proposta de análise, que pode ser aplicada a este tipo de discurso em qualquer localidade, e um estudo de caso, que aplicou a análise proposta na tese. O objetivo geral desta pesquisa foi analisar a informação local sobre meio ambiente veiculada por meio dos discursos jornalístico, político e empresarial, estabelecendo relações históricas, sociais e ideológicas do discurso ambiental que permeiam as três áreas em questão. A metodologia incluiu três fases: pesquisa bibliográfica e revisão de literatura sobre os principais conceitos levantados no trabalho; levantamento de discursos locais disponíveis na mídia para análise no estudo de caso; análise dos discursos a partir de protocolo elaborado com base na Análise do Discurso de linha francesa. O estudo de caso traz a análise do discurso ambiental no município de Frutal-MG, onde hoje estão em andamento várias pesquisas e projetos na área ambiental. A principal conclusão do trabalho confirma a hipótese da pesquisa de que a informação ambiental fruto dos discursos político, jornalístico e empresarial em âmbito local tem caráter predominantemente situacional, mercadológico e propagandístico, pouco focada em conscientizar e educar e com ênfase em interesses comerciais e eleitorais e na resolução de problemas emergenciais

COMUNICAÇÃO E MARKETING NA EDUCAÇÃO SUPERIOR: uma análise dos conteúdos comunicacionais online de instituições de ensino privadas

O presente contexto mercadológico da educação superior, onde a concorrência é cada vez mais acirrada, tem levado as instituições de ensino a estabelecer um processo de gestão de comunicação e marketing mais estratégico e competitivo, buscando alcançar uma posição diferenciada em relação à concorrência, a fim de conquistar seus públicos de interesse. Este trabalho contemplou a aplicação dos objetivos de comunicação no mercado de ensino superior, analisando as formas pelas quais as instituições vêm estabelecendo os processos comunicacionais com seus públicos-alvo, estando direcionado para as Universidades privadas brasileiras. A pesquisa se apóia em: revisão bibliográfica, entrevistas em profundidade com gestores de comunicação e marketing do setor pesquisado e análise de conteúdo de peças de comunicação em mídia online. Inicialmente foi elaborado um relato acerca do contexto atual do mercado de ensino superior no Brasil: sua evolução e caracterização. Em seguida, definiu-se marketing aplicado ao segmento de educação superior: conceitos e o papel designado a ele. Posteriormente relacionou-se comunicação mercadológica com o serviço de educação superior e sua aplicabilidade neste setor. Depois, foram realizadas entrevistas em profundidade - semiestruturadas, com gestores de comunicação e marketing de duas instituições, localizadas na cidade de São Paulo (Insper e Universidade São Judas Tadeu) com posicionamentos antagônicos e classificações distintas quanto à sua imagem para o mercado -, com a finalidade de conhecer suas visões e opiniões sobre o mercado e as ações de comunicação de marketing que vêm adotando. Finalmente, foi elaborada análise de contéudo, comparando anúncios (peças publicitárias) em mídia online das duas IES estudadas. Todos os procedimentos da análise de contéudo foram estabelecidos e categorizados com base nos objetivos de comunicação definidos por Yanaze (2011).

Análise de Redes Sociais como Ferramenta que Contribui para a Melhoria das Relações entre Empresas Participantes de um APL de Eventos

Empresas que organizam festas representam caso típico em que diferentes atores tais como buffet, fotógrafo, DJs ou músicos, decoradores se juntam para realizar eventos pontuais. Este trabalho analisa um Arranjo Produtivo Local (APL) localizado em região metropolitana paulista, constituído por 88 empresas, denominado APL Eventos. O objetivo deste trabalho foi identificar as relações de conhecimento existentes entre os participantes do APL Eventos, utilizando-se da abordagem de Análise de Redes Sociais (ARS) e indicar formas de melhorar as relações entre os participantes. A pesquisa identificou quem conhece quem e os resultados mostraram lacunas nas relações entre as empresas. Os participantes efetuaram a análise das informações com base nas suas redes próprias (egonetworks) e nas suas centralidades. Outro dado relevante foi a conexão média por tipo de empresa. Verificou-se que os buffets são as empresas com mais relações e que empresas de fotografia são as menos relacionadas. Em workshop com 31 participantes foram apresentadas sugestões de ações para melhorias nestas relações. As principais ações que emergiram são: realização de mais reuniões informais, confraternizações, passeios, criação de espaço virtual que permita interação entre os participantes e realização de mais reuniões formais gerais e em grupos.

Análise comparativa e teste empírico da validade dos modelos CAPM tradicional e condicional: o caso das ações da Petrobrás

ALVES, Janaína da Silva. Análise comparativa e teste empírico da validade dos modelos CAPM tradicional e condicional: o caso das ações da Petrobrás. Revista Ciências Administrativas, Fotaleza, v. 13, n. 1, p.147-157, ago. 2007.

Análise webométrica das Universidades Públicas Federais das Regiões Norte e Centro- oeste do Brasil

VANTI, Nadia; SILVA, Lailde da. Análise webométrica das Universidades Públicas Federais das Regiões Norte e Centro- oeste do Brasil.In: ENCONTRO NACIONAL DE ESTUDANTES DE BIBLIOTECONOMIA, DOCUMENTAÇÃO, GESTÃO, E CIÊNCIA DA INFORMAÇÃO,33 , 2010, Paraíba. Anais... Paraíba: ENEBD, 2010.

Análise das Dimensões do Comprometimento no Setor Público da Educação: um estudo de caso com os gestores dos Campi do IFCE Limoeiro do Norte e Fortaleza - CE/Brasil

O presente trabalho tem como objetivo definir, analisar e identificar por meio de um estudo de caso, as dimensões de comprometimento organizacional: afetivas, instrumental e normativa dos gestores do campus do Limoeiro do Norte, que estão em fase de estágio probatório e dos gestores do campus Fortaleza que já passaram desse estágio, traçar um comparativo e relacionar ambos os casos. Norteado por um modelo teórico de comprometimento organizacional abordado por Meyer e Allen (1991; 1997). Comprometimento no setor público neste estudo tem-se como unidade de análise duas instituições federais de educação, ciência e tecnologia. Como os gestores são, na maioria das vezes, responsáveis pelo desenvolvimento de uma força de trabalho capaz e comprometida, sua atuação torna-se de fundamental importância no âmbito da educação, aliado a competência técnica e a vontade polí­tica de ações planejadas. De acordo com a pesquisa descritiva e quantitativa, foram aplicados questionários já testados e validados, contendo aspectos semi-estruturados, onde foi dividido em duas partes: a primeira, com seis itens, abordando as caracterí­sticas pessoais e funcionais dos gestores do IFCE de cada campus estudado, e segunda, que possui dezoito itens divididos nas três dimensões do comprometimento organizacional: afetivo, instrumental e normativo, tudo baseado na escala de mensuração do comprometimento de Meyer e Allen (1997) modelo internacionalmente aceito e validado. Os resultados obtidos na pesquisa apontaram que dos 35 gestores do campus Limoeiro do Norte o comprometimento organizacional que obteve maior média foi o afetivo. Os gestores estáveis do campus Fortaleza, também apontaram a dimensão afetiva com a maior média de comprometimento. Com isso os estudos balizam que não há uma possível relação com o fator tempo na instituição, uma vez que a maioria dos gestores do campus Fortaleza possui mais de uma década de atuação, enquanto os do campus Limoeiro do Norte, possuem menos de três anos na instituição. A maior parte dos pesquisados nos campi defendem uma forte relação na instituição, já se sentem de casa, o vínculo se estabelece pela presença de sentimentos, afeição e identificação, até mesmo pelo fato dos gestores permanecerem mais tempo no trabalho que na sua prápria casa, ele faz da organização um esteio do seu próprio lar. Conclui-se que os resultados não permitem afirmar que as dimensões do comprometimento estão relacionadas ao tempo de atuação dos gestores na instituição. / This paper aims to define, analyze and identify through a case study, the dimensions of organizational commitment: affective, continuance and normative managers campus of Castle Hayne, who are in their probationary period and the managers of Fortaleza campus who have passed this stage, draw a comparison and to relate both cases. Guided by a theoretical model of organizational commitment by Meyer and Allen (1991; 1997) approached. Commitment in the public sector in this study has as unit of analysis two federal institutions of science and technology education. As managers are, in most cases, responsible for developing a workforce capable and committed, its performance becomes very important in education, combined with technical competence and political will of planned actions. According to the descriptive and quantitative research, questionnaires were applied, tested and validated, containing aspects of semi-structured, which was divided into two parts: the first, with six items, addressing the personal and functional characteristics of the managers of each campus IFCE studied, and second, which has eighteen items divided into the three dimensions of organizational commitment: affective, continuance and normative, all based on a scale to measure the commitment of Meyer and Allen (1997) model is internationally accepted and validated. The results obtained in this research showed that the 35 managers of the Castle Hayne campus organizational commitment that was obtained more affective. Managers stable campus Fortaleza, also pointed to the affective dimension with the highest average commitment. With this guiding studies that there is a possible relationship with the time factor in the institution, since most managers campus Fortaleza has over a decade of operation, while the Castle Hayne campus, have less than three years in institution. Most of the campuses surveyed favor a strong relationship with the institution, already feel at home, the link is established by the presence of feelings, affection and identification, even by the fact that managers stay longer at work than at home, he is a mainstay of the organization of your own home. We conclude that the results do not allow us to state that the dimensions of commitment are related to time of performance of managers in the institution.

Análise da eficiência de contratos de serviços de elevada especificidade terceirizados pela petrobras

The definition of the boundaries of the firms is subject that has occupied the organizational theorists long ago, being the seminal work of Coase (1937) indicated as the trigger for one theoretical evolution, with emphasis on governance structures, which led to a modern theory of incomplete contracts. The Transaction Cost Economics (TCE) and Agency Theory arise within this evolution, being widely used in studies related to the theme. Empirically, data envelopment analysis (DEA) has established itself as a suitable tool for analysis of efficiency. Although TCE argues that specific assets must be internalized, recent studies outside the mainstream of theory show that, often, firms may decide, for various reasons, hire them on the market. Researches on transaction costs face with the unavailability of information and methodological difficulties in measuring their critical variables. There`s still the need for further methodological deepening. The theoretical framework includes classic works of TCE and Agency Theory, but also more recent works, outside the mainstream of TCE, which warn about the existence of strategies in use of specific assets that aren`t necessarily aligned with the classical ideas of TCE. The Brazilian oil industry is the focus of this thesis, that aimed to evaluate the efficiency of contracts involving high specificity service outsourced by Petrobras. In order to this, we made the categorization of outsourced services in terms of specificity, as well the description of services with higher specificity. Then, we verified the existence of relationship between the specificity of services and a number of variables, being found divergent results than those that are preached by the mainstream of TCE. Then, we designed a DEA model to analyze the efficiency in the use of onshore drilling rigs, identified among the services of highest specificity. The next step was the application of the model to evaluate the performance of drilling rigs contracts. Finally, we verified the existence of relationship between the efficiency of contracts and a number of variables, being found, again, results not consistent with the theory mainstream. Regarding to analyze of efficiency of drilling rigs contracts, the model developed is compatible with what is found in academic productions in efficiency of drilling rigs. The results on efficiency show a wide range of scores, with efficiencies ranging from 31.79% to 100%, being low the sample efficiency average. There is consonance between the model results and the practices adopted by Petrobras. The results strengthen the DEA as an important tool in studies of efficiency with possibility to use for analysis other types of contracts. In terms of theoretical findings, the results reinforce the arguments that there are situations in which the strategies of the organizations, in terms of use of assets and services of high specificity, do not necessarily follow what is recommended by the mainstream of TCE

Análise experimental do efeito da diversificação em carteiras de ações: a relação entre risco e quantidade de ativos sob a ótica da estratégia ingênua

The objective is to analyze the relationship between risk and number of stocks of a portfolio for an individual investor when stocks are chosen by "naive strategy". For this, we carried out an experiment in which individuals select actions to reproduce this relationship. 126 participants were informed that the risk of first choice would be an asset average of all standard deviations of the portfolios consist of a single asset, and the same procedure should be used for portfolios composed of two, three and so on, up to 30 actions . They selected the assets they want in their portfolios without the support of a financial analysis. For comparison we also tested a hypothetical simulation of 126 investors who selected shares the same universe, through a random number generator. Thus, each real participant is compensated for random hypothetical investor facing the same opportunity. Patterns were observed in the portfolios of individual participants, characterizing the curves for the components of the samples. Because these groupings are somewhat arbitrary, it was used a more objective measure of behavior: a simple linear regression for each participant, in order to predict the variance of the portfolio depending on the number of assets. In addition, we conducted a pooled regression on all observations by analyzing cross-section. The result of pattern occurs on average but not for most individuals, many of which effectively "de-diversify" when adding seemingly random bonds. Furthermore, the results are slightly worse using a random number generator. This finding challenges the belief that only a small number of titles is necessary for diversification and shows that there is only applicable to a large sample. The implications are important since many individual investors holding few stocks in their portfolios