How do experts think about statistics? Hints for improving undergraduate and postgraduate training

Experts are increasingly being called upon to quantify their knowledge, particularly in situations where data is not yet available or of limited relevance. In many cases this involves asking experts to estimate probabilities. For example experts, in ecology or related fields, might be called upon to estimate probabilities of incidence or abundance of species, and how they relate to environmental factors. Although many ecologists undergo some training in statistics at undergraduate and postgraduate levels, this does not necessarily focus on interpretations of probabilities. More accurate elicitation can be obtained by training experts prior to elicitation, and if necessary tailoring elicitation to address the expert’s strengths and weaknesses. Here we address the first step of diagnosing conceptual understanding of probabilities. We refer to the psychological literature which identifies several common biases or fallacies that arise during elicitation. These form the basis for developing a diagnostic questionnaire, as a tool for supporting accurate elicitation, particularly when several experts or elicitors are involved. We report on a qualitative assessment of results from a pilot of this questionnaire. These results raise several implications for training experts, not only prior to elicitation, but more strategically by targeting them whilst still undergraduate or postgraduate students.

Variable phenotype in 16p duplication within a family

Background More individuals are now being identified with very rare genetic syndromes. We present a family with an inherited duplication of 16p11.2 to 16q12.1 in ring formation. Three of the four children, (aged 15 months to 10 years), mother, uncle, and grandmother are affected. Our aim was to provide preliminary evidence of possible phenotypic patterns of learning and behaviour associated with this chromosome anomaly. Method Psychometric assessments were undertaken with all four children. The mother and uncle also agreed to participate in the study. Measures of development (Bayley or Mullen), intellectual ability (WISC-IV or WAIS-III), academic achievement (WIAT-II), adaptive behaviour (Vinelands), and other relevant aspects of functioning (e.g., Children’s Memory Scale) were administered. Results. The first-born child is the only one who is unaffected. Her intellectual ability was assessed as being within the superior range. The second child experienced early difficulties with speech and motor skills. Although his intelligence is average, he has learning difficulties and significant auditory memory problems. The third child’s speech and motor milestones were markedly delayed. He has a complex medical history that includes a vitamin B12 deficiency. On the Mullen Scales at age 4 his scores ranged from average to very low. The development of the youngest child (aged 15 months), who also had a B12 deficiency but was treated early, was assessed as being within typical limits. Conclusions There is considerable developmental variability among the three children with this inherited 16p duplication. We discuss the intriguing similarities and differences, considering common features that may reflect phenotypic patterns and speculating about possible explanations for the variable presentations.

Emergency pre-hospital disaster response training. What's the state of play?

Study/Objective This study examines the current state of disaster response education for Australian paramedics from a national and international perspective and identifies both potential gaps in content and challenges to the sustainability of knowledge acquired through occasional training. Background As demands for domestic and international disaster response increase, experience in the field has begun to challenge traditional assumptions that response to mass casualty events requires little specialist training. The need for a “streamlined process of safe medical team deployment into disaster regions”1 is generally accepted and, in Australia, the emergence of national humanitarian aid training has begun to respond to this gap. However, calls for a national framework for disaster health education2 haven’t received much traction. Methods A critical analysis of the peer reviewed and grey literature on the core components/competencies and training methods required to prepare Australian paramedics to contribute to effective health disaster response has been conducted. Research from the past 10 years has been examined along with federal and state policy with regard to paramedic disaster education. Results The literature shows that education and training for disaster response is variable and that an evidence based study specifically designed to outline sets of core competencies for Australian health care professionals has never been undertaken. While such competencies in disaster response have been developed for the American paradigm it is suggested that disaster response within the Australian context is somewhat different to that of the US, and therefore a gap in the current knowledge base exists. Conclusion Further research is needed to develop core competencies specific to Australian paramedics in order to standardise teaching in the area of health disaster management. Until this occurs the task of evaluating or creating disaster curricula that adequately prepares and maintains paramedics for an effective all hazards disaster response is seen as largely unattainable.

Effective communication during disasters: What effects community decision making & action?

Study/Objective This paper describes a program of research examining emergency messaging during the response and early recovery phases of natural disasters. The objective of this suite of studies is to develop message construction frameworks and channels that maximise community compliance with instructional messaging. The research has adopted a multi-hazard approach and considers the impact of formal emergency messages, as well as informal messages (e.g., social media posts), on community compliance. Background In recent years, media reports have consistently demonstrated highly variable community compliance to instructional messaging during natural disasters. Footage of individuals watching a tsunami approaching from the beach or being over-run by floodwaters are disturbing and indicate the need for a clearer understanding of decision making under stress. This project’s multi-hazard approach considers the time lag between knowledge of the event and desired action, as well as how factors such as message fatigue, message ambiguity, and the interplay of messaging from multiple media sources are likely to play a role in an individual’s compliance with an emergency instruction. Methods To examine effective messaging strategy, we conduct a critical analysis of the literature to develop a framework for community consultation and design experiments to test the potential for compliance improvement. Results Preliminary results indicate that there is, as yet, little published evidence on which to base decisions about emergency instructional messages to threatened communities. Conclusion The research described here will contribute improvements in emergency instructional message compliance by generating an evidence-based framework that takes into account behavioural compliance theory, the psychology of decision making under stress, and multiple channels of communication including social media.

Legal mechanisms for maximising community engagement with formal evacuation messaging: How well are these understood?

Study/Objective This program of research examines the effectiveness of legal mechanisms as motivators to maximise engagement and compliance with evacuation messages. This study is based on the understanding that the presence of legislative requirements, as well as sanctions and incentives encapsulated in law, can have a positive impact in achieving compliance. Our objective is to examine whether the current Australian legal frameworks, which incorporate evacuation during disasters, are an effective structure that is properly understood by those who enforce and those who are required to comply. Background In Australia, most jurisdictions have enacted legislation that encapsulates the power to evacuate and the ability to enforce compliance, either by the use of force or imposition of penalty. However, citizens still choose to not evacuate. Methods This program of research incorporates theoretical and doctrinal methodologies for reviewing literature and legislation in the Australia context. The aim of the research is to determine whether further clarity is required to create an understanding of the powers to evacuate, as well as greater public awareness of these powers. Results & Conclusion Legislators suggest that powers of evacuation can be ineffective if they are impractical to enforce. In Australia, there may also be confusion about from which legislative instrument the power to evacuate derives, and therefore whether there is a corresponding ability to enforce compliance through the use of force or imposition of a penalty. Equally, communities may lack awareness and understanding of the powers of agencies to enforce compliance. We seek to investigate whether this is the case, and whether even if greater awareness existed, it would act as an incentive to comply.

Effective emergency messaging during natural disasters: An application of message compliance theories

Study/Objective This research examines the types of emergency messages used in Australia during the response and early recovery phases of a natural disaster. The aim of the research is to develop theory-driven emergency messages that increase individual behavioural compliance during a disaster. Background There is growing evidence of non-compliant behaviour in Australia, such as refusing to evacuate and travelling through hazardous areas. This can result in personal injury, loss of life, and damage to (or loss of) property. Moreover, non-compliance can place emergency services personnel in life-threatening situations when trying to save non-compliant individuals. Drawing on message compliance research in psychology and sociology, a taxonomy of message types was developed to ascertain how emergency messaging can be improved to produce compliant behaviour. Method A review of message compliance literature was conducted to develop the taxonomy of message types previously found to achieve compliance. Seven categories were identified: direct-rational, manipulation, negative phrasing, positive phrasing, exchange appeals, normative appeals, and appeals to self. A content analysis was then conducted to assess the emergency messages evident in the Australian emergency management context. The existing messages were aligned with the literature to identify opportunities to improve emergency messaging. Results & Conclusion The results suggest there is an opportunity to improve the effectiveness of emergency messaging to increase compliance during the response and early recovery phases of a natural disaster. While some message types cannot legally or ethically be used in emergency communication (e.g. manipulative messaging), there is an opportunity to create more persuasive messages (e.g. appeals to self) that personalise the individual’s perception of risk, triggering them to comply with the message.

Ubuntu and business ethics: Problems, perspectives and prospects

The African philosophy of Ubuntu is typically characterised as a communitarian philosophy that emphasises virtues such as compassion, tolerance and harmony. In recent years there has been growing interest in this philosophy, and in how it can be applied to a variety of disciplines and issues. Several authors have provided useful introductions of Ubuntu in the field of business ethics and suggested theoretical ways in which it could be applied. The purpose of this paper is to extend this discussion by providing a more critical analysis of Ubuntu and business ethics with the aim of clarifying the role that Ubuntu can play, and providing guidance for further research in this area. The analysis consists of three sections. In the first, certain problems are identified within the existing literature. This is followed by a consideration of alternative perspectives and interpretations of Ubuntu. The last section, following from the first two, identifies specific areas requiring further research, both empirical and non-empirical, as well as ways in which Ubuntu could be fruitfully applied.

Sartrean existentialism and ethical decision-making in business

A wide range of decision-making models have been offered to assist in making ethical decisions in the workplace. Those that are based on normative moral frameworks typically include elements of traditional moral philosophy such as consequentialist and/or deontological␣ethics. This paper suggests an alternative model drawing on Jean-Paul Sartre’s existentialism. Accordingly, the model focuses on making decisions in full awareness of one’s freedom and responsibility. The steps of the model are intended to encourage reflection of one’s projects and one’s situation and the possibility of refusing the expectations of others. A case study involving affirmative action in South Africa is used to demonstrate the workings of the model and a number of strengths and weaknesses are identified. Despite several weaknesses that can be raised regarding existential ethics, the model’s success lies in the way that it reframes ethical dilemmas in terms of individual freedom and responsibility, and in its acceptance and analysis of subjective experiences and personal situations

Different approaches of applying single-objective binary genetic algorithm on the wind farm design

This paper discusses three different ways of applying the single-objective binary genetic algorithm into designing the wind farm. The introduction of different applications is through altering the binary encoding methods in GA codes. The first encoding method is the traditional one with fixed wind turbine positions. The second involves varying the initial positions from results of the first method, and it is achieved by using binary digits to represent the coordination of wind turbine on X or Y axis. The third is the mixing of the first encoding method with another one, which is by adding four more binary digits to represent one of the unavailable plots. The goal of this paper is to demonstrate how the single-objective binary algorithm can be applied and how the wind turbines are distributed under various conditions with best fitness. The main emphasis of discussion is focused on the scenario of wind direction varying from 0° to 45°. Results show that choosing the appropriate position of wind turbines is more significant than choosing the wind turbine numbers, considering that the former has a bigger influence on the whole farm fitness than the latter. And the farm has best performance of fitness values, farm efficiency, and total power with the direction between 20°to 30°.

Eco-crime and freshwater

The unsustainable and exploitative use of one of the most important but scarce resources on the planet - freshwater - continues to create conflict and human dislocation on a grand scale. Instead of witnessing nation-states adopting more equitable and efficient conservation strategies, powerful corporations are permitted to privatise and monopolise diminishing water reservoirs based on flawed neo-liberal assumptions and market models of the ‘global good’. The commodification of water has enabled corporate monopolies and corrupt states to exploit a fundamental human right, and in the process have created new forms of criminality. In recent years, affluent industrialised nations have experienced violent rioting as protestors express opposition to government ‘freshwater taxes’ and to corporate investors seeking to privatise drinking water. These water conflicts have included unprecedented clashes with police and deaths of innocent civilians in South Africa (BBC News, 2014a); the United Nations intervention in Detroit USA after weeks of public protest (Burns, 2014); and the hundreds of thousands of people protesting in Ireland (BBC News, 2014,b; Irish Times 2015). Subsequently, the commodification of freshwater has become a criminological issue for water-abundant rich states, as well as for the highly indebted water-scarce nations.

Intellectual property, innovation, and the environment (2014) edited by Peter Menell and Sarah Tran: A review

Peter S. Menell and Sarah M. Tran (ed.), Intellectual Property, Innovation and the Environment, Cheltenham (UK) and Northampton (MA): Edward Elgar, 2014, 756 pp Hardback 978 1 78195 160 6, http://www.e-elgar.com/bookentry_main.lasso?id=15063 There has been a longstanding deadlock over intellectual property and clean technologies in international climate talks. The United States — and other developed countries such as Japan, Denmark Germany, the United Kingdom, Australia, and New Zealand — have pushed for stronger and longer protection of intellectual property rights related to clean technologies. BASIC countries — such as Brazil, South Africa, India, and China — have pushed for greater flexibilities in respect of intellectual property for the purpose of addressing climate change and global warming. Small island states, least developed countries, and nations vulnerable to climate change have called for climate-adaptation and climate-mitigation technologies to be available in the public domain. In the lead-up to the United Nations Climate Summit in New York on the 23rd September 2014, it is timely to consider the debate over intellectual property, innovation, the environment, and climate change.

The Black Label: trade mark dilution, culture jamming, and the no logo movement

This article considers the ongoing debate over the appropriation of well-known and famous trade marks by the No Logo Movement for the purposes of political and social critique. It focuses upon one sensational piece of litigation in South Africa, Laugh It Off Promotions v. South African Breweries International (Finance) B.V. t/a Sabmark International. In this case, a group called Laugh It Off Promotions subjected the trade marks of the manufacturers of Carling Beer were subjected to parody, social satire, and culture jamming. The beer slogan “Black Label” was turned into a T-Shirt entitled “Black Labour/ White Guilt”. In the ensuing litigation, the High Court of South Africa and the Supreme Court of Appeal were of the opinion that the appropriation of the mark was a case of hate speech. However, the Constitutional Court of South Africa disagreed, finding that the parodies of a well-known, famous trade mark did not constitute trade mark dilution. Moseneke J observed that there was a lack of evidence of economic or material harm; and Sachs J held that there is a need to provide latitude for parody, laughter, and freedom of expression. The decision of the Constitutional Court of South Africa provides some important insights into the nature of trade mark dilution, the role of parody and satire, and the relevance of constitutional protections of freedom of speech and freedom of expression. Arguably, the ruling will be of help in the reformation of trade mark dilution law in other jurisdictions – such as the United States. The decision in Laugh It Off Promotions v. South African Breweries International demonstrates that trade mark law should not be immune from careful constitutional scrutiny.

Virtual countries: Internet domain names and geographical terms

This paper examines the dispute between the Seattle company Virtual Countries Inc. and the Republic of South Africa over the ownership of the domain name address southafrica.com. The first part of the paper deals with the pre-emptive litigation taken by Virtual Countries Inc. in a District Court of the United States. The second part considers the possible arbitration of the dispute under the Uniform Domain Name Dispute Resolution Process of the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN) and examines the wider implications of this dispute for the jurisdiction and the governance of ICANN. The final section of the paper evaluates the Final Report of the Second WIPO Internet Domain Name Process.

A decision support framework for prioritization of engineering asset management activities under uncertainty

Engineers and asset managers must often make decisions on how to best allocate limited resources amongst different interrelated activities, including repair, renewal, inspection, and procurement of new assets. The presence of project interdependencies and the lack of sufficient information on the true value of an activity often produce complex problems and leave the decision maker guessing about the quality and robustness of their decision. In this paper, a decision support framework for uncertain interrelated activities is presented. The framework employs a methodology for multi-criteria ranking in the presence of uncertainty, detailing the effect that uncertain valuations may have on the priority of a particular activity. The framework employs employing semi-quantitative risk measures that can be tailored to an organisation and enable a transparent and simple-to-use uncertainty specification by the decision maker. The framework is then demonstrated on a real world project set from a major Australian utility provider.

Modelling of Electric Fields

South Africa has an electrical transmission grid of over 25 000 km of overhead power lines with voltages of 132 kV to 765 kV. The grid has been largely designed and built by the power utility, Eskom. This book embodies the planning philosophies, design principles and construction practices of Eskom. It is the culmination of decades of thought, study, research and the practical experience of many overhead power line engineers and researchers. The book covers the main aspects of overhead power line design and construction, from electrical first principles, system planning, insulation co-ordination (including live line working), mechanical design through to environmental impact management and power line communications. The content emphasises the need for close interaction between all technical disciplines involved and the importance of optimising designs for economy and performance. Additional challenges in South Africa are the relatively high altitude of the interior plateau (1 000 m to 1 700 m above sea level), severe lightning in some areas and long transmission distances. The book explains how these factors are accommodated in modern designs. Other advanced work covered includes the use and understanding of polymeric insulators, the judicious reduction of phase-to-phase spacings and the adoption of guyed structures.