The effects of explicit versus parameterized convection on the MJO in a large-domain high-resolution tropical case study. Part II: Processes leading to differences in MJO development

High-resolution simulations over a large tropical domain (∼20◦S–20◦N and 42◦E–180◦E) using both explicit and parameterized convection are analyzed and compared during a 10-day case study of an active Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) event. In Part II, the moisture budgets and moist entropy budgets are analyzed. Vertical subgrid diabatic heating profiles and vertical velocity profiles are also compared; these are related to the horizontal and vertical advective components of the moist entropy budget which contribute to gross moist stability, GMS, and normalized GMS (NGMS). The 4-km model with explicit convection and good MJO performance has a vertical heating structure that increases with height in the lower troposphere in regions of strong convection (like observations), whereas the 12-km model with parameterized convection and a poor MJO does not show this relationship. The 4-km explicit convection model also has a more top-heavy heating profile for the troposphere as a whole near and to the west of the active MJO-related convection, unlike the 12-km parameterized convection model. The dependence of entropy advection components on moisture convergence is fairly weak in all models, and differences between models are not always related to MJO performance, making comparisons to previous work somewhat inconclusive. However, models with relatively good MJO strength and propagation have a slightly larger increase of the vertical advective component with increasing moisture convergence, and their NGMS vertical terms have more variability in time and longitude, with total NGMS that is comparatively larger to the west and smaller to the east.

Plane wave discontinuous Galerkin methods: exponential convergence of the hp-version

We consider the two-dimensional Helmholtz equation with constant coefficients on a domain with piecewise analytic boundary, modelling the scattering of acoustic waves at a sound-soft obstacle. Our discretisation relies on the Trefftz-discontinuous Galerkin approach with plane wave basis functions on meshes with very general element shapes, geometrically graded towards domain corners. We prove exponential convergence of the discrete solution in terms of number of unknowns.

Convergence and accommodation development is pre-programmed in premature infants

Purpose This study investigated whether vergence and accommodation development in pre-term infants is pre-programmed or is driven by experience. Methods 32 healthy infants, born at mean 34 weeks gestation (range 31.2-36 weeks) were compared with 45 healthy full-term infants (mean 40.0 weeks) over a 6 month period, starting at 4-6 weeks post-natally. Simultaneous accommodation and convergence to a detailed target were measured using a Plusoptix PowerRefII infra-red photorefractor as a target moved between 0.33m and 2m. Stimulus/response gains and responses at 0.33m and 2m were compared by both corrected (gestational) age and chronological (post-natal) age. Results When compared by their corrected age, pre-term and full-term infants showed few significant differences in vergence and accommodation responses after 6-7 weeks of age. However, when compared by chronological age, pre-term infants’ responses were more variable, with significantly reduced vergence gains, reduced vergence response at 0.33m, reduced accommodation gain, and increased accommodation at 2m, compared to full-term infants between 8-13 weeks after birth. Conclusions When matched by corrected age, vergence and accommodation in pre-term infants show few differences from full-term infants’ responses. Maturation appears pre-programmed and is not advanced by visual experience. Longer periods of immature visual responses might leave pre-term infants more at risk of development of oculomotor deficits such as strabismus.  

Follow the leaders? An analysis of convergence and innovation of faculty recruiting practices in US business schools

The debate associated with the qualifications of business school faculty has raged since the 1959 release of the Gordon–Howell and Pierson reports, which encouraged business schools in the USA to enhance their legitimacy by increasing their faculties’ doctoral qualifications and scholarly rigor. Today, the legitimacy of specific faculty qualifications remains one of the most discussed topics in management education, attracting the interest of administrators, faculty, and accreditation agencies. Based on new institutional theory and the institutional logics perspective, this paper examines convergence and innovation in business schools through an analysis of faculty hiring criteria. The qualifications examined are academic degree, scholarly publications, teaching experience, and professional experience. Three groups of schools are examined based on type of university, position within a media ranking system, and accreditation by the Association to Advance Collegiate Schools of Business. Data are gathered using a content analysis of 441 faculty postings from business schools based in the USA over two time periods. Contrary to claims of global convergence, we find most qualifications still vary by group, even in the mature US market. Moreover, innovative hiring is more likely to be found in non-elite schools.

Conditioning of the weak-constraint variational data assimilation problem for numerical weather prediction

4-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation (4DVAR) assimilates observations through the minimisation of a least-squares objective function, which is constrained by the model flow. We refer to 4DVAR as strong-constraint 4DVAR (sc4DVAR) in this thesis as it assumes the model is perfect. Relaxing this assumption gives rise to weak-constraint 4DVAR (wc4DVAR), leading to a different minimisation problem with more degrees of freedom. We consider two wc4DVAR formulations in this thesis, the model error formulation and state estimation formulation. The 4DVAR objective function is traditionally solved using gradient-based iterative methods. The principle method used in Numerical Weather Prediction today is the Gauss-Newton approach. This method introduces a linearised `inner-loop' objective function, which upon convergence, updates the solution of the non-linear `outer-loop' objective function. This requires many evaluations of the objective function and its gradient, which emphasises the importance of the Hessian. The eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the Hessian provide insight into the degree of convexity of the objective function, while also indicating the difficulty one may encounter while iterative solving 4DVAR. The condition number of the Hessian is an appropriate measure for the sensitivity of the problem to input data. The condition number can also indicate the rate of convergence and solution accuracy of the minimisation algorithm. This thesis investigates the sensitivity of the solution process minimising both wc4DVAR objective functions to the internal assimilation parameters composing the problem. We gain insight into these sensitivities by bounding the condition number of the Hessians of both objective functions. We also precondition the model error objective function and show improved convergence. We show that both formulations' sensitivities are related to error variance balance, assimilation window length and correlation length-scales using the bounds. We further demonstrate this through numerical experiments on the condition number and data assimilation experiments using linear and non-linear chaotic toy models.

On the speed of the eddy-driven jet and the width of the Hadley cell in the Southern Hemisphere

A strong correlation between the speed of the eddy-driven jet and the width of the Hadley cell is found to exist in the Southern Hemisphere, both in reanalysis data and in twenty-first-century integrations from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report multimodel archive. Analysis of the space–time spectra of eddy momentum flux reveals that variations in eddy-driven jet speed are related to changes in the mean phase speed of midlatitude eddies. An increase in eddy phase speeds induces a poleward shift of the critical latitudes and a poleward expansion of the region of subtropical wave breaking. The associated changes in eddy momentum flux convergence are balanced by anomalous meridional winds consistent with a wider Hadley cell. At the same time, faster eddies are also associated with a strengthened poleward eddy momentum flux, sustaining a stronger westerly jet in midlatitudes. The proposed mechanism is consistent with the seasonal dependence of the interannual variability of the Hadley cell width and appears to explain at least part of the projected twenty-first-century trends.

Sensitivity and variability redux in hot-Jupiter flow simulations

We revisit the issue of sensitivity to initial flow and intrinsic variability in hot-Jupiter atmospheric flow simulations, originally investigated by Cho et al. (2008) and Thrastarson & Cho (2010). The flow in the lower region (~1 to 20 MPa) `dragged' to immobility and uniform temperature on a very short timescale, as in Liu & Showman (2013), leads to effectively a complete cessation of variability as well as sensitivity in three-dimensional (3D) simulations with traditional primitive equations. Such momentum (Rayleigh) and thermal (Newtonian) drags are, however, ad hoc for 3D giant planet simulations. For 3D hot-Jupiter simulations, which typically already employ strong Newtonian drag in the upper region, sensitivity is not quenched if only the Newtonian drag is applied in the lower region, without the strong Rayleigh drag: in general, both sensitivity and variability persist if the two drags are not applied concurrently in the lower region. However, even when the drags are applied concurrently, vertically-propagating planetary waves give rise to significant variability in the ~0.05 to 0.5 MPa region, if the vertical resolution of the lower region is increased (e.g. here with 1000 layers for the entire domain). New observations on the effects of the physical setup and model convergence in ‘deep’ atmosphere simulations are also presented.

Enhanced long-range forecast skill in boreal winter following stratospheric strong vortex conditions

There has been a great deal of recent interest in producing weather forecasts on the 2–6 week sub-seasonal timescale, which bridges the gap between medium-range (0–10 day) and seasonal (3–6 month) forecasts. While much of this interest is focused on the potential applications of skilful forecasts on the sub-seasonal range, understanding the potential sources of sub-seasonal forecast skill is a challenging and interesting problem, particularly because of the likely state-dependence of this skill (Hudson et al 2011). One such potential source of state-dependent skill for the Northern Hemisphere in winter is the occurrence of stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) events (Sigmond et al 2013). Here we show, by analysing a set of sub-seasonal hindcasts, that there is enhanced predictability of surface circulation not only when the stratospheric vortex is anomalously weak following SSWs but also when the vortex is extremely strong. Sub-seasonal forecasts initialized during strong vortex events are able to successfully capture the associated surface temperature and circulation anomalies. This results in an enhancement of Northern annular mode forecast skill compared to forecasts initialized during the cases when the stratospheric state is close to climatology. We demonstrate that the enhancement of skill for forecasts initialized during periods of strong vortex conditions is comparable to that achieved for forecasts initialized during weak events. This result indicates that additional confidence can be placed in sub-seasonal forecasts when the stratospheric polar vortex is significantly disturbed from its normal state.

Scale interactions between the MJO and the western maritime continent

State-of-the-art regional climate model simulations that are able to resolve key mesoscale circulations are used, for the first time, to understand the interaction between the large-scale convective environment of the MJO and processes governing the strong diurnal cycle over the islands of the Maritime Continent (MC). Convection is sustained in the late afternoon just inland of the coasts due to sea breeze convergence. Previous work has shown that the variability in MC rainfall associated with the MJO is manifested in changes to this diurnal cycle; land-based rainfall peaks before the active convective envelope of the MJO reaches the MC, whereas oceanic rainfall rates peak whilst the active envelope resides over the region. The model simulations show that the main controls on oceanic MC rainfall in the early active MJO phases are the large-scale environment and atmospheric stability, followed by high oceanic latent heat flux forced by high near-surface winds in the later active MJO phases. Over land, rainfall peaks before the main convective envelope arrives (in agreement with observations), even though the large-scale convective environment is only moderately favourable for convection. The causes of this early rainfall peak are convective triggers from land-sea breeze circulations that are strong due to high surface insolation and surface heating. During the peak MJO phases cloud cover increases and surface insolation decreases, which weakens the strength of the mesoscale circulations and reduces land-based rainfall, even though the large-scale environment remains favourable for convection at this time. Hence, scale interactions are an essential part of the MJO transition across the MC.

Impact of Laptev Sea flaw polynyas on the atmospheric boundary layer and ice production using idealized mesoscale simulations

The interaction between polynyas and the atmospheric boundary layer is examined in the Laptev Sea using the regional, non-hydrostatic Consortium for Small-scale Modelling (COSMO) atmosphere model. A thermodynamic sea-ice model is used to consider the response of sea-ice surface temperature to idealized atmospheric forcing. The idealized regimes represent atmospheric conditions that are typical for the Laptev Sea region. Cold wintertime conditions are investigated with sea-ice–ocean temperature differences of up to 40 K. The Laptev Sea flaw polynyas strongly modify the atmospheric boundary layer. Convectively mixed layers reach heights of up to 1200 m above the polynyas with temperature anomalies of more than 5 K. Horizontal transport of heat expands to areas more than 500 km downstream of the polynyas. Strong wind regimes lead to a more shallow mixed layer with strong near-surface modifications, while weaker wind regimes show a deeper, well-mixed convective boundary layer. Shallow mesoscale circulations occur in the vicinity of ice-free and thin-ice covered polynyas. They are forced by large turbulent and radiative heat fluxes from the surface of up to 789 W m−2, strong low-level thermally induced convergence and cold air flow from the orographic structure of the Taimyr Peninsula in the western Laptev Sea region. Based on the surface energy balance we derive potential sea-ice production rates between 8 and 25 cm d−1. These production rates are mainly determined by whether the polynyas are ice-free or covered by thin ice and by the wind strength.

Impact of a Fram Strait cyclone on ice edge, drift, divergence, and concentration: Possibilities and limits of an observational analysis

This study aims at the determination of a Fram Strait cyclone track and of the cyclone’s impact on ice edge, drift, divergence, and concentration. A 24 h period on 13–14 March 2002 framed by two RADARSAT images is analyzed. Data are included from autonomous ice buoys, a research vessel, Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) and QuikSCAT satellite, and the operational European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model. During this 24 h period the cyclone moved northward along the western ice edge in the Fram Strait, crossed the northern ice edge, made a left-turn loop with 150 km diameter over the sea ice, and returned to the northern ice edge. The ECMWF analysis places the cyclone track 100 km too far west over the sea ice, a deviation which is too large for representative sea ice simulations. On the east side of the northward moving cyclone, the ice edge was pushed northward by 55 km because of strong winds. On the rear side, the ice edge advanced toward the open water but by a smaller distance because of weaker winds there. The ice drift pattern as calculated from the ice buoys and the two RADARSAT images is cyclonically curved around the center of the cyclone loop. Ice drift divergence shows a spatial pattern with divergence in the loop center and a zone of convergence around. Ice concentration changes as retrieved from SSM/I data follow the divergence pattern such that sea ice concentration increased in areas of divergence and decreased in areas of convergence.

In situ observations in cyclones over Fram Strait

During the international FRAMZY expedition in March 2002 in-situ observations of Fram Strait cyclones were made by aircraft, ship and automatic buoys in order to study the interaction between cyclones and sea ice. The atmospheric characteristics of the observed cyclones are presented in this paper. The cyclones were generated in the baroclinic zone at the ice edge and moved NNE-ward along the ice edge. This was supported by warm air advection from WSW by an upper-level wave. The cyclones were rather small (diameter 200– 700 km) and shallow (1–1.5 km e-folding height for the horizontal pressure and temperature difference) with life times between 12 and 36 hours. In spite of the small space and time scales, remarkable extremes were observed within the cyclones. Winds reached maxima above 20 ms−1 lasting for only a few hours. The transition from the cold to the advancing warm air over sea ice occurred within narrow (5–30 km) frontal zones in which vorticity and convergence reached maxima on the order of 10−3 s−1. It is discussed whether the sea ice in spite of its inertia is able to react on these strong sub cyclone-scale processes and, thus, these processes have to be taken into account in models in order to simulate the cyclone-sea ice interaction properly.

Sensitivity of resolved and parameterized surface drag to changes in resolution and parameterization

The relative contribution of resolved and parameterized surface drag towards balancing the atmospheric angular momentum flux convergence (AMFC), and their sensitivity to horizontal resolution and parameterization, are investigated in an atmospheric model. This sensitivity can be difficult to elucidate in free-running climate models, in which the AMFC varies with changing climatologies and, as a result, the relative contributions of surface terms balancing the AMFC also vary. While the sensitivity question has previously been addressed using short-range forecasts, we demonstrate that a nudging framework is an effective method for constraining the AMFC. The Met Office Unified Model is integrated at three horizontal resolutions ranging from 130 km (N96) to 25 km (N512) while relaxing the model’s wind and temperature fields towards the ERAinterim reanalysis within the altitude regions of maximum AMFC. This method is validated against short range forecasts and good agreement is found. These experiments are then used to assess the fidelity of the exchange between parameterized and resolved orographic torques with changes in horizontal resolution. Although the parameterized orographic torque reduces substantially with increasing horizontal resolution, there is little change in resolved orographic torque over 20N to 50N. The tendencies produced by the nudging routine indicate that the additional drag at lower horizontal resolution is excessive. When parameterized orographic blocking is removed at the coarsest of these resolutions, there is a lack of compensation, and even compensation of the opposite sense, by the boundary layer and resolved torques which is particularly pronounced over 20N to 50N. This study demonstrates that there is strong sensitivity in the behaviour of the resolved and parameterized surface drag over this region.