Pricing the cost of an election: the impact of the 2014 elections on stock markets

Qual o efeito de eleições em ativos reais? É possível mensurar diretamente a diferença de preços mesmo que só possamos enxergar um dos resultados potenciais? Essa dissertação estima esses efeitos utilizando metodologia baseada em opções sobre ações. O modelo aqui desenvolvido adaptção tradicional Black-Scholes para incorporar dois novos parâmetros: um salto no preço do ativo perfeitamente antecipado e uma série de probabilidades diárias refletindo as crenças sobre quem venceria a corrida eleitoral. Aplicamos esse método para o caso brasileiro das Eleições Presidenciais de 2014 e a Petrobras - uma importante companhia do setor petrolífero do país -utilizando dados de bolsa do segundo turno das eleições. Os resultados encontrados mostram uma diferença de 65-77% para o valor da companhia, dependendo de quem vencesse nas urnas. Isso é equivalente a aproximadamente 2.5% do PIB de 2014 do país.

Análise da sobre-reação e sub-reação nos ativos de primeira e segunda lina do mercado acionário brasileiro

The Behavioral Finance develop as it is perceived anomalies in these markets efficient. This fields of study can be grouped into three major groups: heuristic bias, tying the shape and inefficient markets. The present study focuses on issues concerning the heuristics of representativeness and anchoring. This study aimed to identify the then under-reaction and over-reaction, as well as the existence of symmetry in the active first and second line of the Brazilian stock market. For this, it will be use the Fuzzy Logic and the indicators that classify groups studied from the Discriminant Analysis. The highest present, indicator in the period studied, was the Liabilities / Equity, demonstrating the importance of the moment to discriminate the assets to be considered "winners" and "losers." Note that in the MLCX biases over-reaction is concentrated in the period of financial crisis, and in the remaining periods of statistically significant biases, are obtained by sub-reactions. The latter would be in times of moderate levels of uncertainty. In the Small Caps the behavioral responses in 2005 and 2007 occur in reverse to those observed in the Mid-Large Cap. Now in times of crisis would have a marked conservatism while near the end of trading on the Bovespa speaker, accompanied by an increase of negotiations, there is an overreaction by investors. The other heuristics in SMLL occurred at the end of the period studied, this being a under-reaction and the other a over-reaction and the second occurring in a period of financial-economic more positive than the first. As regards the under / over-reactivity in both types, there is detected a predominance of either, which probably be different in the context in MLCX without crisis. For the period in which such phenomena occur in a statistically significant to note that, in most cases, such phenomena occur during the periods for MLCX while in SMLL not only biases are less present as there is no concentration of these at any time . Given the above, it is believed that while detecting the presence of bias behavior at certain times, these do not tend to appear to a specific type or heuristics and while there were some indications of a seasonal pattern in Mid- Large Caps, the same behavior does not seem to be repeated in Small Caps. The tests would then suggest that momentary failures in the Efficient Market Hypothesis when tested in semistrong form as stated by Behavioral Finance. This result confirms the theory by stating that not only rationality, but also human irrationality, is limited because it would act rationally in many circumstances

Experimental kinetics of infection induced by Yersinia pseudotuberculosis isolated from stock animals

The course of in vivo infection of five isolates of Yersinia pseudotuberculosis was followed for three weeks in Swiss mice. The strains were isolated from diarrheic and normal feces and mesenteric lymph nodes of healthy and sick stock animals. Four strains of serogroup O:3 and one of serogroup O:1a, with and without the virulence plasmid, were inoculated intragastrically and intravenously in the mice. Groups of five animals were sacrificed at 6 h and 3, 6, 10, 15, and 21 days after inoculation, and organs and tissues were checked for possible macroscopic alterations. Development of infection was monitored at these times by performing viable bacterial counts in homogenates of selected tissues. The animals were cheked daily for clinical alterations. The results of the study showed that strains with the virulence plasmid infected organs and tissues at various times and at varying intensity by both routes of infection, the strain of type O:1a being the most invasive. Moreover, clinical and pathological alterations occurred only in animals inoculated with bacteria carrying the virulence plasmid, regardless of the route of infection.

Power flow for primary distribution networks considering uncertainty in demand and user connection

This paper presents a method for calculating the power flow in distribution networks considering uncertainties in the distribution system. Active and reactive power are used as uncertain variables and probabilistically modeled through probability distribution functions. Uncertainty about the connection of the users with the different feeders is also considered. A Monte Carlo simulation is used to generate the possible load scenarios of the users. The results of the power flow considering uncertainty are the mean values and standard deviations of the variables of interest (voltages in all nodes, active and reactive power flows, etc.), giving the user valuable information about how the network will behave under uncertainty rather than the traditional fixed values at one point in time. The method is tested using real data from a primary feeder system, and results are presented considering uncertainty in demand and also in the connection. To demonstrate the usefulness of the approach, the results are then used in a probabilistic risk analysis to identify potential problems of undervoltage in distribution systems. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparison of the Accuracy of Plastic and Metal Stock Trays for Implant Impressions

Purpose: This in vitro study evaluated the dimensional accuracy of two impression techniques (tapered and splinted) with two stock trays (plastic and metal) for implant-supported prostheses. Materials and Methods: A master cast with four parallel abutment analogs and a passive framework were fabricated. Polyvinyl siloxane impression material was used for all impressions with two metal stock trays and two plastic stock trays (closed and open trays). Four groups (tapered plastic, splinted plastic, tapered metal, and splinted metal) and a control group (master cast) were tested (n = 5 for each group). After the framework was seated on each of the casts, one abutment screw was tightened, and the marginal gap between the abutment and framework on the other side was measured with a stereomicroscope. The measurements were analyzed with the Kruskal-Wallis one-way analysis of variance on ranks test followed by the Dunn method. Results: The mean values (+/- standard deviations) for the abutment/framework interface gaps were: master cast, 32 +/- 2 mu m; tapered metal, 44 +/- 10 mu m; splinted metal, 69 +/- 28 mu m; tapered plastic, 164 +/- 58 mu m; splinted plastic, 128 +/- 47 mu m. No significant difference was detected between the master cast, tapered metal, and splinted metal groups or between the tapered and splinted plastic groups. Conclusions: In this study, the rigidity of the metal stock tray ensured better results than the plastic stock tray for implant impressions with a high-viscosity impression material (putty). Statistically similar results were obtained using tapered impression copings and splinted squared impression copings. The tapered impression copings technique and splinted squared impression copings technique with a metal stock tray produced precise casts with no statistically significant difference in interface gaps compared to the master cast. INT J ORAL MAXILLOFAC IMPLANTS 2012;27:544-550.

Population structure and stock assessment of Hoplias malabaricus (Characiformes: Erythrinidae) caught by artisanal fishermen in river-reservoir transition area in Brazil

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Review of the large catfish fisheries in the upper Amazon and the stock depletion of piraiba (Brachyplatystoma filamentosum Lichtenstein)

In this paper we describe the present status of the large migratory catfish fisheries in the Upper Amazon. We present biological information about the main species and we give strong evidence that the stock of piraiba (Brachyplatystoma filamentosum), the largest catfish in the Amazon Basin is probably over-exploited. In conclusion, we raise some hypotheses about the causes and prospects for the future.

Mapping an uncertainty zone between interpolated types of a categorical variable

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Stock assessment and fishery management of the pink shrimp Farfantepenaeus brasiliensis Latreille, 1970 and F. paulensis Pérez-Farfante, 1967 in Southeastern Brazil (23° to 28° S)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Relationships among growth and different NOR phenotypes in a specific stock of rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

DERIVATION OF THE ENERGY-TIME UNCERTAINTY RELATION

A derivation from first principles is given of the energy-time uncertainty relation in quantum mechanics. A canonical transformation is made in classical mechanics to a new canonical momentum, which is energy E, and a new canonical coordinate T, which is called tempus, conjugate to the energy. Tempus T, the canonical coordinate conjugate to the energy, is conceptually different from the time t in which the system evolves. The Poisson bracket is a canonical invariant, so that energy and tempus satisfy the same Poisson bracket as do p and q. When the system is quantized, we find the energy-time uncertainty relation DELTAEDELTAT greater-than-or-equal-to HBAR/2. For a conservative system the average of the tempus operator T is the time t plus a constant. For a free particle and a particle acted on by a constant force, the tempus operators are constructed explicitly, and the energy-time uncertainty relation is explicitly verified.

Transmission network expansion planning considering uncertainty in demand

This paper presents two mathematical models and one methodology to solve a transmission network expansion planning problem considering uncertainty in demand. The first model analyzed the uncertainty in the system as a whole; then, this model considers the uncertainty in the total demand of the power system. The second one analyzed the uncertainty in each load bus individually. The methodology used to solve the problem, finds the optimal transmission network expansion plan that allows the power system to operate adequately in an environment with uncertainty. The models presented are solved using a specialized genetic algorithm. The results obtained for several known systems from literature show that cheaper plans can be found satisfying the uncertainty in demand.

An evolutionary algorithm for the one-dimensional cutting stock problem

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

A Lagrangian relaxation approach to a coupled lot-sizing and cutting stock problem

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Advanced ceramics: Evaluation of the mechanism of stock removal and ground surface quality

The aim of this work is to evaluate the mechanism of stock removal and the ground surface quality of advanced ceramics grounded by a plane tangential grinding process with diamond grinding wheels. The analysis of the grinding performance was done regarding the cutting surface wear behavior of the grinding wheel for ceramic workpieces. The discussion about the results emphasized the wear mechanism of the grinding wheel cutting surface and the cutting phenomenology of the grinding process. The grounded surface was evaluated using Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM). © 1999 Society of Automotive Engineers, Inc.