Intermittent Dynamics, Stochastic Resonance and Dynamical Heterogeneity in Supercooled Liquid Water

Here we find through computer simulations and theoretical analysis that the low temperature thermodynamic anomalies of liquid water arises from the intermittent fluctuation between its high density and low density forms, consisting largely of 5-coordinated and 4-coordinated water molecules, respectively. The fluctuations exhibit strong dynamic heterogeneity (defined by the four point time correlation function), accompanied by a divergence like growth of the dynamic correlation length, of the type encountered in fragile supercooled liquids. The intermittency has been explained by invoking a two state model often employed to understand stochastic resonance, with the relevant periodic perturbation provided here by the fluctuation of the total volume of the system.

Planning, development and management of sustainable cities: A commentary from the guest editors

Cities are the most dramatic manifestations of human activities on the surface of the earth. These human-dominated organisms—i.e., cities—degrade natural habitats, simplify species composition, disrupt hydrological systems, and modify energy flow and nutrient cycling. Today, these consequential impacts of human activities, originated from population increase, rapid urbanization, high private motor vehicle dependency, deregulated industrialization and mass livestock production, are increasing exponentially and causing great deal of environmental, social, and economic challenges both at global and local scales. In such a situation, establishment of sustainable cities, through sustainable urban development practices, is seen as a potential panacea to combat these challenges responsibly, effectively, and efficiently. This paper offers a critical review of the key literature on the issues relating to planning, development and management of sustainable cities, introduces the contributions from the Special Issue, and speculates on the prospective research directions to place necessary mechanisms to secure a sustainable urban future for all.

Population health planning and health promotion: Opportunities and challenges to improve social determinants

Complex social factors and health issues challenge equitable health outcomes for many people, in particular those living in marginalised communities. Primary health care promises solutions through population health and health promotion approaches to improve social conditions (determinants) affecting health with emphasis on change at systems levels. Yet short-term efficiency focus policy decisions without long-term planning can undermine the effectiveness of primary health care. The workshop goal is to explore opportunities and share ideas about population health planning in Primary Health Networks and other community health care settings, so as to draw out opportunities, challenges and forward thinking health planning and health promotion strategies.

Governance and regional planning outcomes: Using governance indicators to support a policy implementation approach

Regional planning faces numerous decision making uncertainties related to the complex interdependencies between urban and regional centres. Questions about how to achieve sustainable planning solutions across regions are a key uncertainty and relate to a lack of information about the actual achievement of outcomes as proposed by the objectives of a plan. Regional plan implementation and its impact on environmental, social and economic outcomes have been little explored within Australian urban and regional planning research. Despite a desire to improve the conditions across Australian regions, ambiguity persists regarding the results of regional planning efforts. Of the variables affecting regional planning, scholars argue that governance has a significant impact on achieving outcomes (see Pahl-Wostl 2009). In order to better analyse the impact of governance, we propose a set of governance indicators to examine decisions across regional planning institutions and apply this to governance models across Queensland’s regions. We contend that these governance indicators can support a more rigorous assessment of the impacts of governance models on plan implementation and outcomes. We propose that this is a way to better understand the relationship between planning and outcomes across urban and regional areas.

Control of Ship Roll Motion

The undesirable effects of roll motion of ships (rocking about the longitudinal axis) became noticeable in the mid-nineteenth century when significant changes were introduced to the design of ships as a result of sails being replaced by steam engines and the arrangement being changed from broad to narrow hulls. The combination of these changes led to lower transverse stability (lower restoring moment for a given angle of roll) with the consequence of larger roll motion. The increase in roll motion and its effect on cargo and human performance lead to the development several control devices that aimed at reducing and controlling roll motion. The control devices most commonly used today are fin stabilizers, rudder, anti-roll tanks, and gyrostabilizers. The use of different types of actuators for control of ship roll motion has been amply demonstrated for over 100 years. Performance, however, can still fall short of expectations because of difficulties associated with control system design, which have proven to be far from trivial due to fundamental performance limitations and large variations of the spectral characteristics of wave-induced roll motion. This short article provides an overview of the fundamentals of control design for ship roll motion reduction. The overview is limited to the most common control devices.

Energy-based motion control of a slender hull unmanned underwater vehicle

This paper presents a motion control system for tracking of attitude and speed of an underactuated slender-hull unmanned underwater vehicle. The feedback control strategy is developed using the Port-Hamiltonian theory. By shaping of the target dynamics (desired dynamic response in closed loop) with particular attention to the target mass matrix, the influence of the unactuated dynamics on the controlled system is suppressed. This results in achievable dynamics independent of stable uncontrolled states. Throughout the design, the insight of the physical phenomena involved is used to propose the desired target dynamics. Integral action is added to the system for robustness and to reject steady disturbances. This is achieved via a change of coordinates that result in input-to-state stable (ISS) target dynamics. As a final step in the design, an anti-windup scheme is implemented to account for limited actuator capacity, namely saturation. The performance of the design is demonstrated through simulation with a high-fidelity model.

A critical evaluation of literature on robot path planning in dynamic environment

Robot Path Planning (RPP) in dynamic environments is a search problem based on the examination of collision-free paths in the presence of dynamic and static obstacles. Many techniques have been developed to solve this problem. Trapping in a local minima and maintaining a Real-Time performance are known as the two most important challenges that these techniques face to solve such problem. This study presents a comprehensive survey of the various techniques that have been proposed in this domain. As part of this survey, we include a classification of the approaches and identify their methods.

Response And Stability Of A Stochastic Beam-Column Using Stochastic Fem

A beam-column resting on continuous Winkler foundation and discrete elastic supports is considered. The beam-column is of variable cross-section and the variation of sectional properties along the axis of the beam-column is deterministic. Young's modulus, mass per unit length and distributed axial loadings of the beam-column have a stochastic distribution. The foundation stiffness coefficient of the Winkler model, the stiffnesses of discrete elastic supports, stiffnesses of end springs and the end thrust, are all considered as random parameters. The material property fluctuations and distributed axial loadings are considered to constitute independent, one-dimension uni-variate homogeneous real stochastic fields in space. The foundation stiffness coefficient, stiffnesses of the discrete elastic supports, stiffnesses of end springs and the end thrust are considered to constitute independent random variables. Static response, free vibration and stability behaviour of the beam-column are studied. Hamilton's principle is used to formulate the problem using stochastic FEM. Sensitivity vectors of the response and stability parameters are evaluated. Using these statistics of free vibration frequencies, mode shapes, buckling parameters, etc., are evaluated. A numerical example is given.

Ship Seakeeping Operability, Motion Control, and Autonomy - A Bayesian Perspective

Ship seakeeping operability refers to the quantification of motion performance in waves relative to mission requirements. This is used to make decisions about preferred vessel designs, but it can also be used as comprehensive assessment of the benefits of ship-motion-control systems. Traditionally, operability computation aggregates statistics of motion computed over over the envelope of likely environmental conditions in order to determine a coefficient in the range from 0 to 1 called operability. When used for assessment of motion-control systems, the increase of operability is taken as the key performance indicator. The operability coefficient is often given the interpretation of the percentage of time operable. This paper considers an alternative probabilistic approach to this traditional computation of operability. It characterises operability not as a number to which a frequency interpretation is attached, but as a hypothesis that a vessel will attain the desired performance in one mission considering the envelope of likely operational conditions. This enables the use of Bayesian theory to compute the probability of that this hypothesis is true conditional on data from simulations. Thus, the metric considered is the probability of operability. This formulation not only adheres to recent developments in reliability and risk analysis, but also allows incorporating into the analysis more accurate descriptions of ship-motion-control systems since the analysis is not limited to linear ship responses in the frequency domain. The paper also discusses an extension of the approach to the case of assessment of increased levels of autonomy for unmanned marine craft.

Performance modelling of a fault-tolerant real-time multiprocessor using stochastic Petri nets

The fault-tolerant multiprocessor (ftmp) is a bus-based multiprocessor architecture with real-time and fault- tolerance features and is used in critical aerospace applications. A preliminary performance evaluation is of crucial importance in the design of such systems. In this paper, we review stochastic Petri nets (spn) and developspn-based performance models forftmp. These performance models enable efficient computation of important performance measures such as processing power, bus contention, bus utilization, and waiting times.

Stochastic growth models for analyzing crustacean data

The contemporary methodology for growth models of organisms is based on continuous trajectories and thus it hinders us from modelling stepwise growth in crustacean populations. Growth models for fish are normally assumed to follow a continuous function, but a different type of model is needed for crustacean growth. Crustaceans must moult in order for them to grow. The growth of crustaceans is a discontinuous process due to the periodical shedding of the exoskeleton in moulting. The stepwise growth of crustaceans through the moulting process makes the growth estimation more complex. Stochastic approaches can be used to model discontinuous growth or what are commonly known as "jumps" (Figure 1). However, in stochastic growth model we need to ensure that the stochastic growth model results in only positive jumps. In view of this, we will introduce a subordinator that is a special case of a Levy process. A subordinator is a non-decreasing Levy process, that will assist in modelling crustacean growth for better understanding of the individual variability and stochasticity in moulting periods and increments. We develop the estimation methods for parameter estimation and illustrate them with the help of a dataset from laboratory experiments. The motivational dataset is from the ornate rock lobster, Panulirus ornatus, which can be found between Australia and Papua New Guinea. Due to the presence of sex effects on the growth (Munday et al., 2004), we estimate the growth parameters separately for each sex. Since all hard parts are shed too often, the exact age determination of a lobster can be challenging. However, the growth parameters for the aforementioned moult processes from tank data being able to estimate through: (i) inter-moult periods, and (ii) moult increment. We will attempt to derive a joint density, which is made up of two functions: one for moult increments and the other for time intervals between moults. We claim these functions are conditionally independent given pre-moult length and the inter-moult periods. The variables moult increments and inter-moult periods are said to be independent because of the Markov property or conditional probability. Hence, the parameters in each function can be estimated separately. Subsequently, we integrate both of the functions through a Monte Carlo method. We can therefore obtain a population mean for crustacean growth (e. g. red curve in Figure 1). [GRAPHICS]

Early stopping by using stochastic curtailment in a three-arm sequential trial

Summary. Interim analysis is important in a large clinical trial for ethical and cost considerations. Sometimes, an interim analysis needs to be performed at an earlier than planned time point. In that case, methods using stochastic curtailment are useful in examining the data for early stopping while controlling the inflation of type I and type II errors. We consider a three-arm randomized study of treatments to reduce perioperative blood loss following major surgery. Owing to slow accrual, an unplanned interim analysis was required by the study team to determine whether the study should be continued. We distinguish two different cases: when all treatments are under direct comparison and when one of the treatments is a control. We used simulations to study the operating characteristics of five different stochastic curtailment methods. We also considered the influence of timing of the interim analyses on the type I error and power of the test. We found that the type I error and power between the different methods can be quite different. The analysis for the perioperative blood loss trial was carried out at approximately a quarter of the planned sample size. We found that there is little evidence that the active treatments are better than a placebo and recommended closure of the trial.

Estimating equations for parameters in stochastic growth models from tag-recapture data

James (1991, Biometrics 47, 1519-1530) constructed unbiased estimating functions for estimating the two parameters in the von Bertalanffy growth curve from tag-recapture data. This paper provides unbiased estimating functions for a class of growth models that incorporate stochastic components and explanatory variables. a simulation study using seasonal growth models indicates that the proposed method works well while the least-squares methods that are commonly used in the literature may produce substantially biased estimates. The proposed model and method are also applied to real data from tagged rack lobsters to assess the possible seasonal effect on growth.

Bias reduction using stochastic approximation

The paper studies stochastic approximation as a technique for bias reduction. The proposed method does not require approximating the bias explicitly, nor does it rely on having independent identically distributed (i.i.d.) data. The method always removes the leading bias term, under very mild conditions, as long as auxiliary samples from distributions with given parameters are available. Expectation and variance of the bias-corrected estimate are given. Examples in sequential clinical trials (non-i.i.d. case), curved exponential models (i.i.d. case) and length-biased sampling (where the estimates are inconsistent) are used to illustrate the applications of the proposed method and its small sample properties.

Strike Hard, Strike Sure - Operation Musketeer : British Military Planning during the Suez Crisis, 1956

This study analyses British military planning and actions during the Suez Crisis in 1956. It seeks to find military reasons for the change of concepts during the planning and compares these reasons with the tactical doctrines of the time. The thesis takes extensive advantage of military documents preserved in the National Archives, London. In order to expand the understanding of the exchange of views during the planning process, the private papers of high ranking military officials have also been consulted. French military documents preserved in the Service Historique de la Defence, Paris, have provided an important point of comparison. The Suez Crisis caught the British armed forces in the middle of a transition phase. The main objective of the armed forces was to establish a credible deterrence against the Soviet Union. However, due to overseas commitments the Middle East playing a paramount role because of its economic importance the armed forces were compelled to also prepare for Limited War and the Cold War. The armed forces were not fully prepared to meet this demand. The Middle Eastern garrison was being re-organised after the withdrawal from the Canal Base and the concept for a strategic reserve was unimplemented. The tactical doctrines of the time were based on experiences from the Second World War. As a result, the British view of amphibious operations and the subsequent campaigns emphasised careful planning, mastery of the sea and the air, sufficient superiority in numbers and firepower, centralised command and extensive administrative preparations. The British military had realized that Nasser could nationalise the Suez Canal and prepared an outline plan to meet this contingency. Although the plan was nothing more than a concept, it was accepted as a basis for further planning when the Canal was nationalised at the end of July. This plan was short-lived. The nominated Task Force Commanders shifted the landing site from Port Said to Alexandria because it enabled faster expansion of the bridgehead. In addition, further operations towards Cairo the hub of Nasser s power would be easier to conduct. The operational concept can be described as being traditional and was in accordance with the amphibious warfare doctrine. This plan was completely changed at the beginning of September. Apparently, General Charles Keightley, the Commander-in-Chief, and the Chairman of the Chiefs of Staff Committee developed the idea of prolonged aerial operations. The essence of the concept was to break the Egyptian will to resist by attacking the oil facilities, the transportation system and the armed forces. This victory through air concept would be supported by carefully planned psychological operations. This concept was in accordance with the Royal Air Force doctrine, which promoted a bomber offensive against selected target categories. General Keightley s plan was accepted despite suspicions at every planning level. The Joint Planning Staff and the Task Force Commanders opposed the concept from the beginning to the end because of its unpredictability. There was no information that suggested the bombing would persuade the Egyptians to submit. This problem was worsened by the fact that British intelligence was unable to provide reliable strategic information. The Task Force Commanders, who were responsible for the tactical plans, were not able to change Keightley s mind, but the concept was expanded to include a traditional amphibious assault on Port Said due to their resistance. The bombing campaign was never tested as the Royal Air Force was denied authorisation to destroy the transportation and oil targets. The Chiefs of Staff and General Keightley were too slow to realise that the execution of the plan depended on the determination of the Prime Minister. However, poor health, a lack of American and domestic support and the indecisiveness of the military had ruined Eden s resolve. In the end, a very traditional amphibious assault, which was bound to succeed at the tactical level but fail at the strategic level, was launched against Port Said.