The Hydrophobic interaction: modeling hydrophobic interactions and aggregation of non-polar particles in aqueous solutions

Malgré son importance dans notre vie de tous les jours, certaines propriétés de l?eau restent inexpliquées. L'étude des interactions entre l'eau et les particules organiques occupe des groupes de recherche dans le monde entier et est loin d'être finie. Dans mon travail j'ai essayé de comprendre, au niveau moléculaire, ces interactions importantes pour la vie. J'ai utilisé pour cela un modèle simple de l'eau pour décrire des solutions aqueuses de différentes particules. Récemment, l?eau liquide a été décrite comme une structure formée d?un réseau aléatoire de liaisons hydrogènes. En introduisant une particule hydrophobe dans cette structure à basse température, certaines liaisons hydrogènes sont détruites ce qui est énergétiquement défavorable. Les molécules d?eau s?arrangent alors autour de cette particule en formant une cage qui permet de récupérer des liaisons hydrogènes (entre molécules d?eau) encore plus fortes : les particules sont alors solubles dans l?eau. A des températures plus élevées, l?agitation thermique des molécules devient importante et brise les liaisons hydrogènes. Maintenant, la dissolution des particules devient énergétiquement défavorable, et les particules se séparent de l?eau en formant des agrégats qui minimisent leur surface exposée à l?eau. Pourtant, à très haute température, les effets entropiques deviennent tellement forts que les particules se mélangent de nouveau avec les molécules d?eau. En utilisant un modèle basé sur ces changements de structure formée par des liaisons hydrogènes j?ai pu reproduire les phénomènes principaux liés à l?hydrophobicité. J?ai trouvé une région de coexistence de deux phases entre les températures critiques inférieure et supérieure de solubilité, dans laquelle les particules hydrophobes s?agrègent. En dehors de cette région, les particules sont dissoutes dans l?eau. J?ai démontré que l?interaction hydrophobe est décrite par un modèle qui prend uniquement en compte les changements de structure de l?eau liquide en présence d?une particule hydrophobe, plutôt que les interactions directes entre les particules. Encouragée par ces résultats prometteurs, j?ai étudié des solutions aqueuses de particules hydrophobes en présence de co-solvants cosmotropiques et chaotropiques. Ce sont des substances qui stabilisent ou déstabilisent les agrégats de particules hydrophobes. La présence de ces substances peut être incluse dans le modèle en décrivant leur effet sur la structure de l?eau. J?ai pu reproduire la concentration élevée de co-solvants chaotropiques dans le voisinage immédiat de la particule, et l?effet inverse dans le cas de co-solvants cosmotropiques. Ce changement de concentration du co-solvant à proximité de particules hydrophobes est la cause principale de son effet sur la solubilité des particules hydrophobes. J?ai démontré que le modèle adapté prédit correctement les effets implicites des co-solvants sur les interactions de plusieurs corps entre les particules hydrophobes. En outre, j?ai étendu le modèle à la description de particules amphiphiles comme des lipides. J?ai trouvé la formation de différents types de micelles en fonction de la distribution des regions hydrophobes à la surface des particules. L?hydrophobicité reste également un sujet controversé en science des protéines. J?ai défini une nouvelle échelle d?hydrophobicité pour les acides aminés qui forment des protéines, basée sur leurs surfaces exposées à l?eau dans des protéines natives. Cette échelle permet une comparaison meilleure entre les expériences et les résultats théoriques. Ainsi, le modèle développé dans mon travail contribue à mieux comprendre les solutions aqueuses de particules hydrophobes. Je pense que les résultats analytiques et numériques obtenus éclaircissent en partie les processus physiques qui sont à la base de l?interaction hydrophobe.<br/><br/>Despite the importance of water in our daily lives, some of its properties remain unexplained. Indeed, the interactions of water with organic particles are investigated in research groups all over the world, but controversy still surrounds many aspects of their description. In my work I have tried to understand these interactions on a molecular level using both analytical and numerical methods. Recent investigations describe liquid water as random network formed by hydrogen bonds. The insertion of a hydrophobic particle at low temperature breaks some of the hydrogen bonds, which is energetically unfavorable. The water molecules, however, rearrange in a cage-like structure around the solute particle. Even stronger hydrogen bonds are formed between water molecules, and thus the solute particles are soluble. At higher temperatures, this strict ordering is disrupted by thermal movements, and the solution of particles becomes unfavorable. They minimize their exposed surface to water by aggregating. At even higher temperatures, entropy effects become dominant and water and solute particles mix again. Using a model based on these changes in water structure I have reproduced the essential phenomena connected to hydrophobicity. These include an upper and a lower critical solution temperature, which define temperature and density ranges in which aggregation occurs. Outside of this region the solute particles are soluble in water. Because I was able to demonstrate that the simple mixture model contains implicitly many-body interactions between the solute molecules, I feel that the study contributes to an important advance in the qualitative understanding of the hydrophobic effect. I have also studied the aggregation of hydrophobic particles in aqueous solutions in the presence of cosolvents. Here I have demonstrated that the important features of the destabilizing effect of chaotropic cosolvents on hydrophobic aggregates may be described within the same two-state model, with adaptations to focus on the ability of such substances to alter the structure of water. The relevant phenomena include a significant enhancement of the solubility of non-polar solute particles and preferential binding of chaotropic substances to solute molecules. In a similar fashion, I have analyzed the stabilizing effect of kosmotropic cosolvents in these solutions. Including the ability of kosmotropic substances to enhance the structure of liquid water, leads to reduced solubility, larger aggregation regime and the preferential exclusion of the cosolvent from the hydration shell of hydrophobic solute particles. I have further adapted the MLG model to include the solvation of amphiphilic solute particles in water, by allowing different distributions of hydrophobic regions at the molecular surface, I have found aggregation of the amphiphiles, and formation of various types of micelle as a function of the hydrophobicity pattern. I have demonstrated that certain features of micelle formation may be reproduced by the adapted model to describe alterations of water structure near different surface regions of the dissolved amphiphiles. Hydrophobicity remains a controversial quantity also in protein science. Based on the surface exposure of the 20 amino-acids in native proteins I have defined the a new hydrophobicity scale, which may lead to an improvement in the comparison of experimental data with the results from theoretical HP models. Overall, I have shown that the primary features of the hydrophobic interaction in aqueous solutions may be captured within a model which focuses on alterations in water structure around non-polar solute particles. The results obtained within this model may illuminate the processes underlying the hydrophobic interaction.<br/><br/>La vie sur notre planète a commencé dans l'eau et ne pourrait pas exister en son absence : les cellules des animaux et des plantes contiennent jusqu'à 95% d'eau. Malgré son importance dans notre vie de tous les jours, certaines propriétés de l?eau restent inexpliquées. En particulier, l'étude des interactions entre l'eau et les particules organiques occupe des groupes de recherche dans le monde entier et est loin d'être finie. Dans mon travail j'ai essayé de comprendre, au niveau moléculaire, ces interactions importantes pour la vie. J'ai utilisé pour cela un modèle simple de l'eau pour décrire des solutions aqueuses de différentes particules. Bien que l?eau soit généralement un bon solvant, un grand groupe de molécules, appelées molécules hydrophobes (du grecque "hydro"="eau" et "phobia"="peur"), n'est pas facilement soluble dans l'eau. Ces particules hydrophobes essayent d'éviter le contact avec l'eau, et forment donc un agrégat pour minimiser leur surface exposée à l'eau. Cette force entre les particules est appelée interaction hydrophobe, et les mécanismes physiques qui conduisent à ces interactions ne sont pas bien compris à l'heure actuelle. Dans mon étude j'ai décrit l'effet des particules hydrophobes sur l'eau liquide. L'objectif était d'éclaircir le mécanisme de l'interaction hydrophobe qui est fondamentale pour la formation des membranes et le fonctionnement des processus biologiques dans notre corps. Récemment, l'eau liquide a été décrite comme un réseau aléatoire formé par des liaisons hydrogènes. En introduisant une particule hydrophobe dans cette structure, certaines liaisons hydrogènes sont détruites tandis que les molécules d'eau s'arrangent autour de cette particule en formant une cage qui permet de récupérer des liaisons hydrogènes (entre molécules d?eau) encore plus fortes : les particules sont alors solubles dans l'eau. A des températures plus élevées, l?agitation thermique des molécules devient importante et brise la structure de cage autour des particules hydrophobes. Maintenant, la dissolution des particules devient défavorable, et les particules se séparent de l'eau en formant deux phases. A très haute température, les mouvements thermiques dans le système deviennent tellement forts que les particules se mélangent de nouveau avec les molécules d'eau. A l'aide d'un modèle qui décrit le système en termes de restructuration dans l'eau liquide, j'ai réussi à reproduire les phénomènes physiques liés à l?hydrophobicité. J'ai démontré que les interactions hydrophobes entre plusieurs particules peuvent être exprimées dans un modèle qui prend uniquement en compte les liaisons hydrogènes entre les molécules d'eau. Encouragée par ces résultats prometteurs, j'ai inclus dans mon modèle des substances fréquemment utilisées pour stabiliser ou déstabiliser des solutions aqueuses de particules hydrophobes. J'ai réussi à reproduire les effets dûs à la présence de ces substances. De plus, j'ai pu décrire la formation de micelles par des particules amphiphiles comme des lipides dont la surface est partiellement hydrophobe et partiellement hydrophile ("hydro-phile"="aime l'eau"), ainsi que le repliement des protéines dû à l'hydrophobicité, qui garantit le fonctionnement correct des processus biologiques de notre corps. Dans mes études futures je poursuivrai l'étude des solutions aqueuses de différentes particules en utilisant les techniques acquises pendant mon travail de thèse, et en essayant de comprendre les propriétés physiques du liquide le plus important pour notre vie : l'eau.

Fabrication and characterization of silicon position sensitive particle detectors

Position sensitive particle detectors are needed in high energy physics research. This thesis describes the development of fabrication processes and characterization techniques of silicon microstrip detectors used in the work for searching elementary particles in the European center for nuclear research, CERN. The detectors give an electrical signal along the particles trajectory after a collision in the particle accelerator. The trajectories give information about the nature of the particle in the struggle to reveal the structure of the matter and the universe. Detectors made of semiconductors have a better position resolution than conventional wire chamber detectors. Silicon semiconductor is overwhelmingly used as a detector material because of its cheapness and standard usage in integrated circuit industry. After a short spread sheet analysis of the basic building block of radiation detectors, the pn junction, the operation of a silicon radiation detector is discussed in general. The microstrip detector is then introduced and the detailed structure of a double-sided ac-coupled strip detector revealed. The fabrication aspects of strip detectors are discussedstarting from the process development and general principles ending up to the description of the double-sided ac-coupled strip detector process. Recombination and generation lifetime measurements in radiation detectors are discussed shortly. The results of electrical tests, ie. measuring the leakage currents and bias resistors, are displayed. The beam test setups and the results, the signal to noise ratio and the position accuracy, are then described. It was found out in earlier research that a heavy irradiation changes the properties of radiation detectors dramatically. A scanning electron microscope method was developed to measure the electric potential and field inside irradiated detectorsto see how a high radiation fluence changes them. The method and the most important results are discussed shortly.

Review. Characterization and selection of hexaploid wheats containing resistance to Heterodera avenae or Mayetiola destructor introgressed from Aegilops

Cereal cyst nematode (CCN, Heterodera avenae) and Hessian fly (HF, Mayetiola destructor) are two major pests affecting wheat crops worldwide including important cereal areas of Spain. Aegilops ventricosa and Ae. triuncialis were used as donors in a strategy to introduce resistance genes (RG) for these pests in hexaploid wheat (Triticum aestivum L.). Two 42 chromosomes introgression lines have been derived from Ae. ventricosa: H-93-8 and H-93-33 carrying genes Cre2 and H27 conferring resistance to CCN and HF, respectively. Line TR-3531 with 42 chromosomes has been derived from Ae. triuncialis and carries RGs conferring resistance for CCN (Cre7) and for HF (H30). Alien material has been incorporated in lines H-93 by chromosomal substitution and recombination, while in line TR-3531 homoeologous recombination affecting small DNA fragments has played a major role. It has been demonstrated that Cre2, Cre7, H27 and H30 are major single dominant genes and not allelic of other previously described RGs. Biochemical and molecular-biology studies of the defense mechanism triggered by Cre2 and Cre7 have revealed specific induction of peroxidase and other antioxidant enzymes. In parallel to these basic studies advanced lines carrying resistance genes for CNN and/or HF have been developed. Selection was done using molecular markers for eventually «pyramiding» resistance genes. Several isozyme and RAPD markers have been described and, currently, new markers based on transposable elements and NBS-LRR sequences are being developed. At present, two advanced lines have already been included at the Spanish Catalogue of Commercial Plant Varieties.

Sex-chromosome differentiation and 'sex races' in the common frog (Rana temporaria).

Sex-chromosome differentiation was recently shown to vary among common frog populations in Fennoscandia, suggesting a trend of increased differentiation with latitude. By rearing families from two contrasted populations (respectively, from northern and southern Sweden), we show this disparity to stem from differences in sex-determination mechanisms rather than in XY-recombination patterns. Offspring from the northern population display equal sex ratios at metamorphosis, with phenotypic sexes that correlate strongly with paternal LG2 haplotypes (the sex chromosome); accordingly, Y haplotypes are markedly differentiated, with male-specific alleles and depressed diversity testifying to their smaller effective population size. In the southern population, by contrast, a majority of juveniles present ovaries at metamorphosis; only later in development do sex ratios return to equilibrium. Even at these later stages, phenotypic sexes correlate only mildly with paternal LG2 haplotypes; accordingly, there are no recognizable Y haplotypes. These distinct patterns of gonadal development fit the concept of 'sex races' proposed in the 1930s, with our two populations assigned to the 'differentiated' and 'semi-differentiated' races, respectively. Our results support the suggestion that 'sex races' differ in the genetic versus epigenetic components of sex determination. Analysing populations from the 'undifferentiated race' with high-density genetic maps should help to further test this hypothesis.

Toxicity screenings of nanomaterials: challenges due to interference with assay processes and components of classic in vitro tests.

Given the multiplicity of nanoparticles (NPs), there is a requirement to develop screening strategies to evaluate their toxicity. Within the EU-funded FP7 NanoTEST project, a panel of medically relevant NPs has been used to develop alternative testing strategies of NPs used in medical diagnostics. As conventional toxicity tests cannot necessarily be directly applied to NPs in the same manner as for soluble chemicals and drugs, we determined the extent of interference of NPs with each assay process and components. In this study, we fully characterized the panel of NP suspensions used in this project (poly(lactic-co-glycolic acid)-polyethylene oxide [PLGA-PEO], TiO2, SiO2, and uncoated and oleic-acid coated Fe3O4) and showed that many NP characteristics (composition, size, coatings, and agglomeration) interfere with a range of in vitro cytotoxicity assays (WST-1, MTT, lactate dehydrogenase, neutral red, propidium iodide, (3)H-thymidine incorporation, and cell counting), pro-inflammatory response evaluation (ELISA for GM-CSF, IL-6, and IL-8), and oxidative stress detection (monoBromoBimane, dichlorofluorescein, and NO assays). Interferences were assay specific as well as NP specific. We propose how to integrate and avoid interference with testing systems as a first step of a screening strategy for biomedical NPs.

Ramp-up Predictability - Designing and Prototyping Ramp-up Predictability concept for new product creation

Diplomityön tavoitteena on tutkia ja kehittää menetelmä tuotekehitysprojektin ajalliselle ennustamiselle tuotteen siirtyessä tuotekehityksestä massatuotantoon. Ajallisen ennustamisen merkitys korostuu mitä lähemmäksi uuden tuotteen massatuotannon aloittaminen (ramp-up) tulee, koska strategiset päätökset koskien mm. uusia tuotantolinjoja, materiaalien- ja komponenttien tilaamisia sekä vahvistus asiakastoimitusten aloittamista täytyy tehdä jo paljon aikaisemmin.Työ aloitetaan tutkimalla rinnakkaista insinöörityötä (concurrent engineering) sekä suoritusten mittaamista (performance measurement), joiden sisältämistä ajattelumalleista, työkaluista ja tekniikoista hahmottuivat ajallisen ennustettavuuden onnistumisen edellytykset. Näitä olivat suunnitellun tuotteen ja tuotekehitysprosessin laatu sekä resurssien ja tiimien kompetenssit. Toisaalta ajalliseen ennustettavuuteen vaikuttavat myös projektien riippuvuudet ulkoisista toimittajista ja heidän aikatauluistaan.Teoreettisena viitekehyksenä käytetään Bradford L. Goldense:n luomaa mallia tuotekehityksen proaktiiviseksi mittaamiseksi sekä sovelletaan W. Edward Deming:in jatkuvan parantamisen silmukkaa. Työssä kehitetään Ramp-up Predictability konsepti, joka koostuu keskipitkän ja pitkän aikavälin ennustamisesta. Työhön ei kuulunut mallin käyttöönotto ja seuranta.Toimenpide ehdotuksena esitetään lisätutkimusta mittareiden keskinäisestä korrelaatioista ja niiden luotettavuudesta sekä mallien tarjoamista mahdollisuuksista muille tulosyksiköille.

The Design and Implementation of Loudspeaker Control Network Protocols

The networking and digitalization of audio equipment has created a need for control protocols. These protocols offer new services to customers and ensure that the equipment operates correctly. The control protocols used in the computer networks are not directly applicable since embedded systems have resource and cost limitations. In this master's thesis the design and implementation of new loudspeaker control network protocols are presented. The protocol stack was required to be reliable, have short response times, configure the network automatically and support the dynamic addition and removal of loudspeakers. The implemented protocol stack was also required to be as efficient and lightweight as possible because the network nodes are fairly simple and lack processing power. The protocol stack was thoroughly tested, validated and verified. The protocols were formally described using LOTOS (Language of Temporal Ordering Specifications) and verified using reachability analysis. A prototype of the loudspeaker network was built and used for testing the operation and the performance of the control protocols. The implemented control protocol stack met the design specifications and proved to be highly reliable and efficient.

Gene flow and gene flux shape evolutionary patterns of variation in Drosophila subobscura

Gene flow (defined as allele exchange between populations) and gene flux (defined as allele exchange during meiosis in heterokaryotypic females) are important factors decreasing genetic differentiation between populations and inversions. Many chromosomal inversions are under strong selection and their role in recombination reduction enhances the maintenance of their genetic distinctness. Here we analyze levels and patterns of nucleotide diversity, selection and demographic history, using 37 individuals of Drosophila subobscura from Mount Parnes (Greece) and Barcelona (Spain). Our sampling focused on two frequent O-chromosome arrangements that differ by two overlapping inversions (OST and O3+4), which are differentially adapted to the environment as observed by their opposing latitudinal clines in inversion frequencies. The six analyzed genes (Pif1A, Abi, Sqd, Yrt, Atpa and Fmr1) were selected for their location across the O-chromosome and their implication in thermal adaptation. Despite the extensive gene flux detected outside the inverted region, significant genetic differentiation between both arrangements was found inside it. However, high levels of gene flow were detected for all six genes when comparing the same arrangement among populations. These results suggest that the adaptive value of inversions is maintained, regardless of the lack of genetic differentiation within arrangements from different populations, and thus favors the Local Adaptation hypothesis over the Coadapted Genome hypothesis as the basis of the selection acting on inversions in these populations.

Yield mapping, soil fertility and tree gaps in an orange orchard

The current high competition on Citrus industry demands from growers new management technologies for superior efficiency and sustainability. In this context, precision agriculture (PA) has developed techniques based on yield mapping and management systems that recognize field spatial variability, which contribute to increase profitability of commercial crops. Because spatial variability is often not perceived the orange orchards are still managed as uniform and adoption of PA technology on citrus farms is low. Thus, the objective of the present study was to characterize the spatial variability of three factors: fruit yield, soil fertility and occurrence of plant gaps caused by either citrus blight or huanglongbing (HLB) in a commercial Valencia orchard in Brotas, São Paulo State, Brazil. Data from volume, geographic coordinates and representative area of the bags used on harvest were recorded to generate yield points that were then interpolated to produce the yield map. Soil chemical characteristics were studied by analyzing samples collected along planting rows and inter-rows in 24 points distributed in the field. A map of density of tree gaps was produced by georeferencing individual gaps and later by counting the number of gaps within 500 m² cells. Data were submitted to statistical and geostatistical analyses. A t test was used to compare means of soil chemical characteristics between sampling regions. High variation on yield and density of tree gaps was observed from the maps. It was also demonstrated overlapping regions of high density of plant absence and low fruit yield. Soil fertility varied depending on the sampling region in the orchard. The spatial variability found on yield, soil fertility and on disease occurrence demonstrated the importance to adopt site specific nutrient management and disease control as tools to guarantee efficiency of fruit production.

Lossless Compression Methods for Multispectral Images: Development and Comparisons

Main purpose of this thesis is to introduce a new lossless compression algorithm for multispectral images. Proposed algorithm is based on reducing the band ordering problem to the problem of finding a minimum spanning tree in a weighted directed graph, where set of the graph vertices corresponds to multispectral image bands and the arcs’ weights have been computed using a newly invented adaptive linear prediction model. The adaptive prediction model is an extended unification of 2–and 4–neighbour pixel context linear prediction schemes. The algorithm provides individual prediction of each image band using the optimal prediction scheme, defined by the adaptive prediction model and the optimal predicting band suggested by minimum spanning tree. Its efficiency has been compared with respect to the best lossless compression algorithms for multispectral images. Three recently invented algorithms have been considered. Numerical results produced by these algorithms allow concluding that adaptive prediction based algorithm is the best one for lossless compression of multispectral images. Real multispectral data captured from an airplane have been used for the testing.

Liquid-crystalline ordering of antimicrobial peptide-DNA complexes controls TLR9 activation.

Double-stranded DNA (dsDNA) can trigger the production of type I interferon (IFN) in plasmacytoid dendritic cells (pDCs) by binding to endosomal Toll-like receptor-9 (TLR9; refs , , , , ). It is also known that the formation of DNA-antimicrobial peptide complexes can lead to autoimmune diseases via amplification of pDC activation. Here, by combining X-ray scattering, computer simulations, microscopy and measurements of pDC IFN production, we demonstrate that a broad range of antimicrobial peptides and other cationic molecules cause similar effects, and elucidate the criteria for amplification. TLR9 activation depends on both the inter-DNA spacing and the multiplicity of parallel DNA ligands in the self-assembled liquid-crystalline complex. Complexes with a grill-like arrangement of DNA at the optimum spacing can interlock with multiple TLR9 like a zipper, leading to multivalent electrostatic interactions that drastically amplify binding and thereby the immune response. Our results suggest that TLR9 activation and thus TLR9-mediated immune responses can be modulated deterministically.

Surface passivation of crystalline silicon by Cat-CVD amorphous and nanocrystalline thin silicon films

In this work, we study the electronic surface passivation of crystalline silicon with intrinsic thin silicon films deposited by Catalytic CVD. The contactless method used to determine the effective surface recombination velocity was the quasi-steady-state photoconductance technique. Hydrogenated amorphous and nanocrystalline silicon films were evaluated as passivating layers on n- and p-type float zone silicon wafers. The best results were obtained with amorphous silicon films, which allowed effective surface recombination velocities as low as 60 and 130 cms -1 on p- and n-type silicon, respectively. To our knowledge, these are the best results ever reported with intrinsic amorphous silicon films deposited by Catalytic CVD. The passivating properties of nanocrystalline silicon films strongly depended on the deposition conditions, especially on the filament temperature. Samples grown at lower filament temperatures (1600 °C) allowed effective surface recombination velocities of 450 and 600 cms -1 on n- and p-type silicon.

Allelic diversity and population structure in Vibrio cholerae O139 Bengal based on nucleotide sequence analysis

Comparative analysis of gene fragments of six housekeeping loci, distributed around the two chromosomes of Vibrio cholerae, has been carried out for a collection of 29 V. cholerae O139 Bengal strains isolated from India during the first epidemic period (1992 to 1993). A toxigenic O1 ElTor strain from the seventh pandemic and an environmental non-O1/non-O139 strain were also included in this study. All loci studied were polymorphic, with a small number of polymorphic sites in the sequenced fragments. The genetic diversity determined for our O139 population is concordant with a previous multilocus enzyme electrophoresis study in which we analyzed the same V. cholerae O139 strains. In both studies we have found a higher genetic diversity than reported previously in other molecular studies. The results of the present work showed that O139 strains clustered in several lineages of the dendrogram generated from the matrix of allelic mismatches between the different genotypes, a finding which does not support the hypothesis previously reported that the O139 serogroup is a unique clone. The statistical analysis performed in the V. cholerae O139 isolates suggested a clonal population structure. Moreover, the application of the Sawyer's test and split decomposition to detect intragenic recombination in the sequenced gene fragments did not indicate the existence of recombination in our O139 population.

Estimating the Price and Demand Development of Some Paperboard Grades

Työn tavoitteena oli luoda malli, jonka avulla voitaisiin ennustaa kartonkituotteiden hinnan ja kysynnän kehitystä. Työssä kerättiin aluksi tietoa kartonkimarkkinoista haastattelujen ja tilastotietojen avulla. Näiden perusteella luotiin malli, joka kuvaa kartonkimarkkinoiden ja -teollisuuden rakennetta. Erityisesti kiinnitettiin huomiota asiakkaiden tilauskäyttäytymiseen, tuotannonohjaukseen sekä hinnan muodostumiseen. Työssä käytettiin ennustemenetelmänä systeemidynamiikkaa. Oleellista oli löytää systeemissä esiintyvät tärkeimmät takaisinkytkennät ja systeemin avainmuuttujat. Kun kaikille mallin muuttujille oli määritetty yhtälöt ja vakioille annettu arvot, voitiin mallia simuloida, ja saada ennusteet halutuille muuttujille. Työssä esitettiin ennusteet kartonkimarkkinoiden tärkeimmille parametreille kahden vuoden päähän. Työssä tarkasteltiin myös, miten muutokset mallin käyttäytymistä säätelevissä muuttujissa vaikuttavat tuloksiin. Jotta pystyttäisiin paremmin selvittämään koko kartonkiteollisuuden dynamiikka, lisätutkimusta tarvittaisiin vielä eri kartonkilajien substituutiomahdollisuuksista ja hintojen riippuvuuksista. Mielenkiintoista olisi myös tietää, miten tuotannon käyttöasteiden muutokset ja hinnan vaihtelut vaikuttavat liiketoiminnan kannattavuuteen valmistajien näkökulmasta.