Statistical Methods and the Meaning of Probabilities. A Philosopher Looks at Statistics

The talk starts out with a short introduction to the philosophy of probability. I highlight the need to interpret probabilities in the sciences and motivate objectivist accounts of probabilities. Very roughly, according to such accounts, ascriptions of probabilities have truth-conditions that are independent of personal interests and needs. But objectivist accounts are pointless if they do not provide an objectivist epistemology, i.e., if they do not determine well-defined methods to support or falsify claims about probabilities. In the rest of the talk I examine recent philosophical proposals for an objectivist methodology. Most of them take up ideas well-known from statistics. I nevertheless find some proposals incompatible with objectivist aspirations.

Comprehensive measures of sound exposures in cinemas using smart phones

OBJECTIVES Sensorineural hearing loss from sound overexposure has a considerable prevalence. Identification of sound hazards is crucial, as prevention, due to a lack of definitive therapies, is the sole alternative to hearing aids. One subjectively loud, yet little studied, potential sound hazard is movie theaters. This study uses smart phones to evaluate their applicability as a widely available, validated sound pressure level (SPL) meter. Therefore, this study measures sound levels in movie theaters to determine whether sound levels exceed safe occupational noise exposure limits and whether sound levels in movie theaters differ as a function of movie, movie theater, presentation time, and seat location within the theater. DESIGN Six smart phones with an SPL meter software application were calibrated with a precision SPL meter and validated as an SPL meter. Additionally, three different smart phone generations were measured in comparison to an integrating SPL meter. Two different movies, an action movie and a children's movie, were measured six times each in 10 different venues (n = 117). To maximize representativeness, movies were selected focusing on large release productions with probable high attendance. Movie theaters were selected in the San Francisco, CA, area based on whether they screened both chosen movies and to represent the largest variety of theater proprietors. Measurements were analyzed in regard to differences between theaters, location within the theater, movie, as well as presentation time and day as indirect indicator of film attendance. RESULTS The smart phone measurements demonstrated high accuracy and reliability. Overall, sound levels in movie theaters do not exceed safe exposure limits by occupational standards. Sound levels vary significantly across theaters and demonstrated statistically significant higher sound levels and exposures in the action movie compared to the children's movie. Sound levels decrease with distance from the screen. However, no influence on time of day or day of the week as indirect indicator of film attendance could be found. CONCLUSIONS Calibrated smart phones with an appropriate software application as used in this study can be utilized as a validated SPL meter. Because of the wide availability, smart phones in combination with the software application can provide high quantity recreational sound exposure measurements, which can facilitate the identification of potential noise hazards. Sound levels in movie theaters decrease with distance to the screen, but do not exceed safe occupational noise exposure limits. Additionally, there are significant differences in sound levels across movie theaters and movies, but not in presentation time.

Algebra of Classical Theoretical Term Reductions in the Sciences

An elementary algebra identifies conceptual and corresponding applicational limitations in John Kemeny and Paul Oppenheim’s (K-O) 1956 model of theoretical reduction in the sciences. The K-O model was once widely accepted, at least in spirit, but seems afterward to have been discredited, or in any event superceeded. Today, the K-O reduction model is seldom mentioned, except to clarify when a reduction in the Kemeny-Oppenheim sense is not intended. The present essay takes a fresh look at the basic mathematics of K-O comparative vocabulary theoretical term reductions, from historical and philosophical standpoints, as a contribution to the history of the philosophy of science. The K-O theoretical reduction model qualifies a theory replacement as a successful reduction when preconditions of explanatory adequacy and comparable systematicization are met, and there occur fewer numbers of theoretical terms identified as replicable syntax types in the most economical statement of a theory’s putative propositional truths, as compared with the theoretical term count for the theory it replaces. The challenge to the historical model developed here, to help explain its scope and limitations, involves the potential for equivocal theoretical meanings of multiple theoretical term tokens of the same syntactical type.

Expanding Our Grasp: Causal Knowledge and the Problem of Unconceived Alternatives

I argue that scientific realism, insofar as it is only committed to those scientific posits of which we have causal knowledge, is immune to Kyle Stanford’s argument from unconceived alternatives. This causal strategy (previously introduced, but not worked out in detail, by Anjan Chakravartty) is shown not to repeat the shortcomings of previous realist responses to Stanford’s argument. Furthermore, I show that the notion of causal knowledge underlying it can be made sufficiently precise by means of conceptual tools recently introduced into the debate on scientific realism. Finally, I apply this strategy to the case of Jean Perrin’s experimental work on the atomic hypothesis, disputing Stanford’s claim that the problem of unconceived alternatives invalidates a realist interpretation of this historical episode.

Na 1 Nachlass Max Horkheimer, 697 - Cultural Aspects of National Socialism. A Research Project (p. IX 170.6 - 170.10)

"Bureaucracy" verschiedene Typoskripte, zum Teil mit handschriftlichen Korrekturen, circa 51 Blatt; Handschriftliche Notizen, 4 Blatt; "Mass Culture" verschiedene Typoskripte, zum Teil mit handschriftlichen Korrekturen, circa 40 Blatt ; zwei Manuskripte, eins von Max Horkheimer, 3 Blatt; "Anti-Christianity" verschiedene Typoskripte, zum Teil mit handschriftlichen Korrekturen, circa 51 Blatt; Eigenhändige Notizen von Max Horkheimer, 1 Blatt; "The War and Post-War Generation" verschiedene Typoskripte, zum Teil mit handschriftlichen Korrekturen, darunter ein Typoskript auf deutsch, mit eigenhändigen Korrekturen von Max Horkheimer, circa 67 Blatt; "Ideological Permeation of Labor and New Middle Classes" [enthält unter anderem den Titel "The German Masses and the Philosophy of National Socialism"] verschiedene Typoskripte, zum Teil mit handschriftlichen Korrekturen, circa 36 Blatt; Notizem, 2 Blatt;

Development and Implementation of the Use of Optically Stimulated Luminescent Detectors in the Radiological Physics Center Anthropomorphic Quality Assurance Phantoms

The Radiological Physics Center (RPC) uses both on-site and remote reviews to credential institutions for participation in clinical trials. Anthropomorphic quality assurance (QA) phantoms are one tool the RPC uses to remotely audit institutions, which include thermoluminescent dosimeters (TLDs) and radiochromic film. The RPC desires to switch from TLD as the absolute dosimeter in the phantoms, to optically stimulated luminescent dosimeters (OSLDs), but a problem lies in the angular dependence exhibited by the OSLD. The purpose of this study was to characterize the angular dependence of OSLD and establish a correction factor if necessary, to provide accurate dosimetric measurements as a replacement for TLD in the QA phantoms. A 10 cm diameter high-impact polystyrene spherical phantom was designed and constructed to hold an OSLD to study the angular response of the dosimeter under the simplest of circumstances for both coplanar and non-coplanar treatment deliveries. OSLD were irradiated in the spherical phantom, and the responses of the dosimeter from edge-on angles were normalized to the response when irradiated with the beam incident normally on the surface of the dosimeter. The average normalized response was used to establish an angular correction factor for 6 MV and 18 coplanar treatments, and for 6 MV non-coplanar treatments specific to CyberKnife. The RPC pelvic phantom dosimetry insert was modified to hold OSLD, in addition to the TLD, adjacent to the planes of film. Treatment plans of increasing angular beam delivery were developed, three in Pinnacle v9.0 (4-field box, IMRT, and VMAT) and one in Accuray’s MultiPlan v3.5.3 (CyberKnife). The plans were delivered to the pelvic phantom containing both TLD and OSLD in the target volume. The pelvic phantom was also sent to two institutions to be irradiated as trials, one delivering IMRT, and the other a CyberKnife treatment. For the IMRT deliveries and the two institution trials, the phantom also included film in the sagittal and coronal planes. The doses measured from the TLD and OSLD were calculated for each irradiation, and the angular correction factors established from the spherical phantom irradiations were applied to the OSLD dose. The ratio of the TLD dose to the angular corrected OSLD dose was calculated for each irradiation. The corrected OSLD dose was found to be within 1% of the TLD measured dose for all irradiations, with the exception of the in-house CyberKnife deliveries. The films were normalized to both TLD measured dose and the corrected OSLD dose. Dose profiles were obtained and gamma analysis was performed using a 7%/4 mm criteria, to compare the ability of the OSLD, when corrected for the angular dependence, to provide equivalent results to TLD. The results of this study indicate that the OSLD can effectively be used as a replacement for TLD in the RPC’s anthropomorphic QA phantoms for coplanar treatment deliveries when a correction is applied for the dosimeter’s angular dependence.

Where does Philippine education go? : the "K to 12" program and reform of Philippine basic education

In 2012 the Philippines launched its "K to 12" Program, a comprehensive reform of its basic education. Through this reform, the Philippines is catching up with global standards in secondary education and is attaching a high value to kindergarten. The structure, curricula, and philosophy of the education system are undergoing reform and improvement. The key points of the new policy are "preparation" for higher education, "eligibility" for entering domestic and overseas higher educational institutions, and immediate "employability" on graduating, all leading toward a "holistically developed Filipino". This policy appears admirable and timely, but it faces some pedagogical and socioeconomic problems. The author wants to point out in particular that the policy needs to address gender problems and should be combined with demand-side approaches in order to promote poverty alleviation and human development in the Philippines.

Open Technologies for prototyping the Internet of Things

The worldwide "hyper-connection" of any object around us is the challenge that promises to cover the paradigm of the Internet of Things. If the Internet has colonized the daily life of more than 2000 million1 people around the globe, the Internet of Things faces of connecting more than 100000 million2 "things" by 2020. The underlying Internet of Things’ technologies are the cornerstone that promises to solve interrelated global problems such as exponential population growth, energy management in cities, and environmental sustainability in the average and long term. On the one hand, this Project has the goal of knowledge acquisition about prototyping technologies available in the market for the Internet of Things. On the other hand, the Project focuses on the development of a system for devices management within a Wireless Sensor and Actuator Network to offer some services accessible from the Internet. To accomplish the objectives, the Project will begin with a detailed analysis of various “open source” hardware platforms to encourage creative development of applications, and automatically extract information from the environment around them for transmission to external systems. In addition, web platforms that enable mass storage with the philosophy of the Internet of Things will be studied. The project will culminate in the proposal and specification of a service-oriented software architecture for embedded systems that allows communication between devices on the network, and the data transmission to external systems. Furthermore, it abstracts the complexities of hardware to application developers. RESUMEN. La “hiper-conexión” a nivel mundial de cualquier objeto que nos rodea es el desafío al que promete dar cobertura el paradigma de la Internet de las Cosas. Si la Internet ha colonizado el día a día de más de 2000 millones1 de personas en todo el planeta, la Internet de las Cosas plantea el reto de conectar a más de 100000 millones2 de “cosas” para el año 2020. Las tecnologías subyacentes de la Internet de las Cosas son la piedra angular que prometen dar solución a problemas globales interrelacionados como el crecimiento exponencial de la población, la gestión de la energía en las ciudades o la sostenibilidad del medioambiente a largo plazo. Este Proyecto Fin de Carrera tiene como principales objetivos por un lado, la adquisición de conocimientos acerca de las tecnologías para prototipos disponibles en el mercado para la Internet de las Cosas, y por otro lado el desarrollo de un sistema para la gestión de dispositivos de una red inalámbrica de sensores que ofrezcan unos servicios accesibles desde la Internet. Con el fin de abordar los objetivos marcados, el proyecto comenzará con un análisis detallado de varias plataformas hardware de tipo “open source” que estimulen el desarrollo creativo de aplicaciones y que permitan extraer de forma automática información del medio que les rodea para transmitirlo a sistemas externos para su posterior procesamiento. Por otro lado, se estudiarán plataformas web identificadas con la filosofía de la Internet de las Cosas que permitan el almacenamiento masivo de datos que diferentes plataformas hardware transfieren a través de la Internet. El Proyecto culminará con la propuesta y la especificación una arquitectura software orientada a servicios para sistemas empotrados que permita la comunicación entre los dispositivos de la red y la transmisión de datos a sistemas externos, así como facilitar el desarrollo de aplicaciones a los programadores mediante la abstracción de la complejidad del hardware.

Fungal biodeterioration of colour cinematographic films of the cultural heritage of Cuba

Until recently, cinematographic film was largely cellulose-triacetate-based. However, this material is highly susceptible to biodeterioration, thus placing historic film collections, an important part of the cultural heritage of many countries, at risk. In the present study, samples taken from several biodeteriorated color cinematographic films belonging to the collection of the Cuban Institute for Cinematographic Industry and Arts (ICAIC) were investigated. Infrared spectroscopy showed that all films were of the same composition, i.e., a gelatin emulsion coating one side of a cellulose-triacetate-based film support. The films were analyzed by environmental scanning electron microscopy and scanning electron microscopy to determine the degree of biodeterioration and the type of colonizing microorganisms. Significant fungal colonization was found on both sides of the films in all samples, with a higher concentration of fungi on the gelatin emulsion side. Epifluorescence microscopy of fluorochrome-dyed films demonstrated that some of the fungi were still active, indicating that the films under study, and probably others at the ICAIC, are at risk of further deterioration. Fungi were identified by molecular biology techniques. The fungi mainly responsible for the observed biodeterioration were those belonging to the genera Aspergillus and Cladosporium, although other genera, such as Microascus and Penicillium, were identified as well. In accordance with the findings described herein, the existing guidelines for the prevention and control of film biodeterioration are discussed.

Wendell Berry's Critique of E. O. Wilson on Science

Drawing on the work of Wendell Berry, among others, allows us to see through claims that science has on limits (scientism). Berry shows what follies scientism generates and provides his own guidelines to what the limits of science are or ought to be.

Embodied Religion and Liberal Society: The Obstacle of De Facto Established Religion

Recent scholarship suggests that religion should be conceived in terms of embodied social practices as much as (if not more than) a set of systematic beliefs. Such accounts of religion, I will argue, raise problems that have not been adequately treated in current discussion of the role of religion in liberal society.

Reformed Epistemology, Clairvoyance, and the Role of Evidence

Reformed epidemiologists like Alvin Plantinga and William Alston are well known for their view that one can rationally believe that God exists without believing on the basis of any evidence - scientific, philosophical, or otherwise. I defend reformed epistemology from objections (including one having to do with clairvoyance), and I develop a view about the role that evidence should play in the rationality of theistic belief.