Pricing and hedging of oil futures : a unifying approach

We develop and empirically test a continuous time equilibrium model for the pricing of oil futures. The model provides a link between no-arbitrage models and expectation oriented models. It highlights the role of inventories for the identification of different pricing regimes. In an empirical study the hedging performance of our model is compared with five other one- and two-factor pricing models. The hedging problem considered is related to Metallgesellschaft´s strategy to hedge long-term forward commitments with short-term futures. The results show that the downside risk distribution of our inventory based model stochastically dominates those of the other models.

Sustainable miracles : protection and competition in the Brazilian oil industry

It is often suggested that competition improves productivity, however, the underlying support for this idea is surprisingly thin. This paper presents a case study examining the e ects of a change in the competitive environment on productivity at the Petrobras, Brazil's state-owned oil company. Petrobras had a legal monopoly on production, re ning, transportation and importation of oil in Brazil until it was removed in 1995. Even though Petrobras continues to have a de facto monopoly, the end of legal monopoly labor productivity growth rate more than doubled. A growth accounting of the industry shows that between 1977 and 1993 output growth rate (and productivity growth rate) is explained by the accumulation of capital, while Total Factor Productivity (TFP) decreased. Between 1994 and 2000 labor productivity growth rate is completely explained by the growth rate of TFP. The results suggest that the threat of competition alone is su cient to improve productivity. They also provide evidence that restricting competition help cause Brazil's depression of the 1980s.

Oil price shocks and policy implications the emergence of U.S. tight oil production: a case study

How have shocks to supply and demand affected global oil prices; and what are key policy implications following the resurgence of oil production in the United States? Highlights: − The recent collapse in global oil prices was dominated by oversupply. − The future of tight oil in the United States is vulnerable to obstacles beyond oil prices. − Opinions on tight oil from the Top 25 think tank organizations are considered. Global oil prices have fallen more than fifty percent since mid-2014. While price corrections in the global oil markets resulted from multiple factors over the past twelve months, surging tight oil production from the United States was a key driver. Tight oil is considered an unconventional or transitional oil source due to its location in oil-bearing shale instead of conventional oil reservoirs. These qualities make tight oil production fundamentally different from regular crude, posing unique challenges. This case study examines these challenges and explores how shocks to supply and demand affect global oil prices while identifying important policy considerations. Analysis of existing evidence is supported by expert opinions from more than one hundred scholars from top-tier think tank organizations. Finally, implications for United States tight oil production as well as global ramifications of a new low price environment are explored.

Headspace solid-phase microextraction combined with mass spectrometry as a powerful analytical tool for profiling the terpenoid metabolomic pattern of hop-essential oil derived from Saaz variety

Hop(HumuluslupulusL.,Cannabaceaefamily)isprizedforitsessentialoilcontents,usedin beer production and, more recently, in biological and pharmacological applications. In this work,a methodinvolvingheadspace solid-phase microextractionand gas chromatography– mass spectrometry was developed and optimized to establish the terpenoid (monoterpenes and sesquiterpenes) metabolomic pattern of hop-essential oil derived from Saaz variety as a mean to explore this matrix as a powerful biological source for newer, more selective, biodegradable and naturally produced antimicrobial and antioxidant compounds. Different parameters affecting terpenoid metabolites extraction by headspace solid-phase microextraction were considered and optimized: type of fiber coatings, extraction temperature, extraction time, ionic strength, and sample agitation. In the optimized method, analytes were extracted for 30 min at 40 C in the sample headspace with a 50/30 m divinylbenzene/carboxen/polydimethylsiloxane coating fiber. The methodology allowed the identification of a total of 27 terpenoid metabolites, representing 92.5% of the total Saaz hop-essential oil volatile terpenoid composition. The headspace composition was dominated by monoterpenes (56.1%, 13 compounds), sesquiterpenes (34.9%, 10), oxygenated monoterpenes (1.41%, 3), and hemiterpenes (0.04%, 1) some of which can probably contribute to the hop of Saaz variety aroma. Mass spectrometry analysis revealed that the main metabolites are the monoterpene -myrcene (53.0±1.1% of the total volatile fraction), and the cyclic sesquiterpenes, -humulene (16.6 ± 0.8%), and -caryophyllene (14.7 ± 0.4%), which together represent about 80% of the total volatile fraction from the hop-essential oil. Thesefindingssuggestthatthismatrixcanbeexploredasapowerfulbiosourceofterpenoid metabolites.

Integrated valorization of Anona Cherimola Mill. seeds

Agricultural and agro-industrial residues are often considered both an environmental and an economical problem. Therefore, a paradigm shift is needed, assuming residues as biorefinery feedstocks. In this work cherimoya (Annona cherimola Mill.) seeds, which are lipid-rich (ca. 30%) and have a significant lignocellulosic fraction, were used as an example of a residue without any current valorization. Firstly, the lipid fraction was obtained by solvent extraction. Extraction yield varied from 13% to 28%, according to the extraction method and time, and solvent purity. This oil was converted into biodiesel (by base-catalyzed transesterification), yielding 76 g FAME/100 g oil. The obtained biodiesel is likely to be incorporated in the commercial chain, according to the EN14214 standard. The remaining lignocellulosic fraction was subjected to two alternative fractionation processes for the selective recovery of hemicellulose, aiming different products. Empirical mathematical models were developed for both processes, aiming future scale-up. Autohydrolysis rendered essentially oligosaccharides (10 gL-1) with properties indicating potential food/feed/pharmacological applications. The remaining solid was enzymatically saccharified, reaching a saccharification yield of 83%. The hydrolyzate obtained by dilute acid hydrolysis contained mostly monosaccharides, mainly xylose (26 gL-1), glucose (10 gL-1) and arabinose (3 gL-1), and had low content of microbial growth inhibitors. This hydrolyzate has proven to be appropriate to be used as culture media for exopolisaccharide production, using bacteria or microbial consortia. The maximum conversion of monosaccharides into xanthan gum was 0.87 g/g and kefiran maximum productivity was 0.07 g.(Lh)-1. This work shows the technical feasibility of using cherimoya seeds, and materials as such, as potential feedstocks, opening new perspectives for upgrading them in the biorefinery framework.

Estudo da incorporação de cascalho proveniente da perfuração de poços de petróleo em formulações para tijolos de solo-cimento

The present work is to study the characteristics and technological properties of soil-cement bricks made from binary and ternary mixtures of Portland cement, sand, water, with or without addition of gravel from the drilling of oil wells, which could be used by industry, aiming to improve its performance and reduce cost by using the residue and, consequently, increasing its useful life. The soil-cement bricks are one of the alternatives to masonry construction. These elements, after a short curing period, provide compressive strength similar to that of solid bricks and ceramic blocks, and the higher the resistance the higher the amount of cement used. We used the soil from the city of São José do Mipibu / RN, the banks of the River Baldun, cement CPIIZ-32 and residue of drill cuttings from oil wells drilling onshore wells in the town of Mossley, RN, provided Petrobras. To determine the optimum mix, we studied the inclusion of different residues (100%, 80%, 70%, 60% and 50%) where 15 bodies were made of the test piece. The assessment was made of bricks made from simple compression tests, mass loss by immersion and water absorption. The experimental results proved the efficiency and high utilization of the waste from the drilling of oil wells, making the brick-cement-soil residue with a higher strength and lower water absorption. The best result in terms of mechanical strength and water absorption for the ternary mixture was 10% soil, 14% cement and 80% residue. In terms of binary mixtures, we obtained the best result for the mix-cement residue, which was 14% cement incorporated in the residue

Adição do resíduo de biomassa da cana-de-açúcar em pastas para cimentação de poços petrolíferos produtores de óleos pesados

The Potiguar basin has large fields of viscous oil where the used method for recovering is based on vapor injection; this operation is carried out by injecting vapor in the oilwell directly, without the protection of a revetment through thermal insulation, what causes its dilation and, consequently, cracks in the cement placed on the annular, and lost of hydraulic insulation; this crack is occasioned by the phenomenon of retrogression of the compressive resistance due to the conversion of the hydrated calcium silicate in phases calcium-rich, caused by the high temperatures in the wells, subjected to thermal recuperation. This work has evaluated the application of composite pastes with addition of residue of biomass of ground sugar-cane bagasse as anti-retrogression mineral admixture for cementation of oil-wells subjected to thermal recuperation. The addition of the mineral residue was carried out considering a relative amount of 10, 20, 30, 40 and 59% in relation to cement mass, trying to improve the microstructure of the paste, still being developed a reference paste only with cement and a paste with addition of 40% of silica flour - renowned material in the oil industry as anti-retrogression additive. Pozzolanic activity of the ash was evaluated through XRD, TG/DTG, as the resistance to compression, and it was also determined the physical and mechanical behavior of the pastes when submitted to cure at low temperatures (22 and 38º C); besides it was evaluated the behavior of the pastes when submitted to two cycles of cure at high temperature (280ºC) and pressure (7 MPa). It was verified that the ash of the sugar-cane biomass presents pozzolanic reaction and has great efficiency in decrease the permeability of the paste by filler effect, as well as that addition of ash in a relative amount of 10, 20 e 30% increases cured compressive resistance at low temperatures. It was also showed that the ash in a relative amount of 40% and 59% has very significant efficiency as anti-retrogression additive, since it prevents the decrease of compressive resistance and forms hydrated calcium silicate type xenotlita and tobermorita which have more resistance and stability in high temperatures

Avaliação da incorporação combinada dos resíduos de cascalho de perfuração de poço de petróleo e de polimento do porcelanato em cerâmica vermelha

Among the industries, those that produce ceramic porcelain for use in construction industry and oil, during the exploration and production period, play an important role in the production of waste. Much research has been carried out both by academia and the productive sector, sometimes reintroducing them in the same production line that generated them, sometimes in areas unrelated to their generation, as in the production of concrete and mortar for the construction, for example, but each one in an isolated way. In this research, the aim is to study the combined incorporation of the waste drill cuttings of oil well and the residue of the polishing of porcelain, generated in the final stage of finishing of this product in a clay matrix, for the production of red pottery, specifically bricks, ceramic blocks and tiles. The clay comes from the municipality of São Gonçalo, RN, the drilling waste is from the Natal basin, in Rio Grande do Norte, and the residue of the polishing proceeds from a ceramic porcelain of the State of Paraíba. For this purpose, we used a mixture of a plastic clay with a non-plastic, in a ratio of 50% each, settling formulations with the addition of these two residues in this clay matrix. In the formulations, both residues were incorporated with a minimum percentage of 2.5% and maximum of 12.5%, varying from 2.5% each, in each formulation, which the sum of the waste be no more than 15%. It should be noted that the residue of the polishing of ceramic porcelain is a IIa class (not inert). The materials were characterized by XRF, XRD, TG, DTA, laser granulometry and the plasticity index. The technological properties of water absorption, apparent porosity, linear shrinkage of burning, flexural tensile strength and bulk density were evaluated after the sintering of the pieces to 850 °C, 950 °C and 1050 °C, with a burning time of 3 hr, 3 hr and 30 minutes, and 3 hr and 50 minutes, respectively, with a heating rate of 10 °C/minute, for all formulations and landing of 30 minutes. To better understand the influence of each residue and temperature on the evaluated properties, we used the factorial planning and its surfaces of response for the interpretation of the results. It was found that the temperature has no statistical significance at a 95% of reliability level in flexural tensile strength and that it decreases the water absorption and the porosity, but increases the shrinkage and the bulk density. The results showed the feasibility of the desired incorporation, but adjusting the temperature to each product and formulation, and that the temperatures of 850 °C and 950 °C were the one that responded to the largest number of formulations

Influência da adição de gres porcelanato no comportamento mecânico e microestrutural em pastas de cimento portland para cimentação de poços de petróleo

Cementation operation consists in an extremely important work for the phases of perforation and completion of oil wells, causing a great impact on the well productivity. Several problems can occur with the cement during the primary cementation, as well as throughout the productive period. The corrective operations are frequent, but they are expensive and demands production time. Besides the direct cost, prejudices from the interruption of oil and gas production till the implementation of a corrective operation must be also taken into account. The purpose of this work is the development of an alternative cement paste constituted of Portland cement and porcelainized stoneware residue produced by ceramic industry in order to achieve characteristics as low permeability, high tenacity, and high mechanical resistance, capable of supporting various operations as production or oil wells recuperation. Four different concentration measures of hydrated paste were evaluated: a reference paste, and three additional ones with ceramic residue in concentrations of the order of 10%, 20% and 30% in relation to cement dough. High resistance and low permeability were found in high concentration of residues, as well as it was proved the pozolanic reactivity of the residue in relation to Portland cement, which was characterized through x-ray and thermogravimetry assays. It was evident the decrease of calcium hydroxide content, once it was substituted by formation of new hydrated products as it was added ceramic residue

Avaliação térmica dos resíduos da destilação atmosférica das blendas - biodiesel/diesel

The worldwide concern regarding the use of sustainable energy and preserving the environment are determining factors in the search for resources and alternative sources of energy and therefore fuel less aggressive nature. In response to these difficulties Biodiesel has emerged as a good solution because it is produced from renewable sources, produces burns cleaner and is easily reproducible. This work was synthesized with biodiesel oil, sunflower via homogeneous catalysis in the presence of KOH, with and without the use of BHT and subsequently added to the blends BX (a proportion of biodiesel X = 5, 10, 15 and 20 %). Atmospheric distillation of the analysis, performed in blends with and without BHT were collected residue generated by each sample and performed a study heat from the thermogravimetric analysis at a heating rate of 10 °C*min-1, nitrogen atmosphere and heating to 600 °C. According to the specifications of Resolution N 7/2008 for biodiesel, it was found that the synthesized material was in accordance with the specifications. For blends showed that the samples are in accordance with the Resolution of ANP N 42/2009. From the TG / DTG curves of the samples of biodiesel, blends and waste can be seen that these show a single loss of thermal decomposition concerning constituents present in each sample. The blends without BHT with ratios of 5%, 10% and 15% biodiesel showed a lower amount of waste (1,07%; 1,09% e 1,10%) to mineral diesel (1,15%). Therefore, it is concluded that the addition of biodiesel with diesel mineral can improve some physico-chemical parameters, but also, depending on the added amount, decreasing the amount of waste generated. This fact is of great importance because the carbonaceous residue can cause problems in mechanical equipment and parts for vehicles, causing more frequent maintenance, and this is not desirable

Estudo térmico dos resíduos gerados da destilação atmosférica das misturas diesel/biodiesel de dendê

The growing world demand for energy supplied by fossil fuels, a major contributor to the emission of pollutants into the atmosphere and causing environmental problems, has been encouraging governments and international organizations to reflect and encourage the use of alternative renewable sources. Among these new possibilities deserves attention biodiesel, fuel cleaner and easy to reproduce. The study of new technologies involving that source is necessary. From this context, the paper aims at analyzing the thermal stability by thermogravimetric analysis, of the waste generated from atmospheric distillation of mixtures with ratios of 5, 10, 15 and 20% palm biodiesel in diesel with and without addition of BHT antioxidant. It was synthesized biodiesel through palm oil, via homogeneous catalysis in the presence of KOH, with and without the use of BHT and subsequently added to the diesel common indoor type (S1800) from a gas station BR. The diesel was already added with 5% biodiesel, and thus the proportions used for these blends were subtracted from the existing ratio in diesel fuel, resulting in the following proportions palm oil biodiesel: 0% (B5), 5% (B10), 10 % (B15) and 15% (B20). From atmospheric distillation analysis, performed in mixtures with and without BHT were collected residue generated by each sample and performed a thermal study from the thermogravimetric analysis at a heating rate of 10 °C.min-1, nitrogen atmosphere and heating to 600 ° C. According to the specifications of Resolution No. 7/2008 for biodiesel, it was found that the material was synthesized in accordance with the specifications. For mixtures, it was noted that the samples were in accordance with the ANP Resolution No. 42/2009. Given the TG / DTG curves of the samples of waste mixtures with and without BHT antioxidant was able to observe that they showed a single stage of thermal decomposition attributed to decomposition of heavy hydrocarbons and esters and other heavier constituents of the waste sample weighed. The thermal behavior of residues from atmospheric distillation of mixtures of diesel / biodiesel is very important to understand how this affects the proper functioning of the engine. A large amount of waste can generate a high content of particulate material, coke formation and carbonaceous deposits in engine valves, compromising their performance

Avaliação do petróleo por termogravimetria para simulação de curva PEV, fator de caracterização e resíduo de carbono

Petroleum evaluation is analyze it using different methodologies, following international standards to know their chemical and physicochemical properties, contaminant levels, composition and especially their ability to generate derivatives. Many of these analyzes consuming a lot of time, large amount of samples , supplies and need an organized transportation logistics, schedule and professionals involved. Looking for alternatives that optimize the evaluation and enable the use of new technologies, seven samples of different centrifuged Brazilian oils previously characterized by Petrobras were analyzed by thermogravimetry in 25-900° C range using heating rates of 05, 10 and 20ºC per minute. With experimental data obtained, characterizations correlations were performed and provided: generation of true boiling point curves (TBP) simulated; comparing fractions generated with appropriate cut standard in temperature ranges; an approach to obtain Watson characterization factor; and compare micro carbon residue formed. The results showed a good chance of reproducing simulated TBP curve from thermogravimetry taking into account the composition, density and other oil properties. Proposed correlations for experimental characterization factor and carbon residue followed Petrobras characterizations, showing that thermogravimetry can be used as a tool on oil evaluation, because your quick analysis, accuracy, and requires a minimum number of samples and consumables

Pirólise de borras oleosas de petroleo utilizando nanomateriais

The oily sludge is a complex mix of hydrocarbons, organic impurities, inorganic and water. One of the major problems currently found in petroleum industry is management (packaging, storage, transport and fate) of waste. The nanomaterials (catalysts) mesoporous and microporous are considered promising for refining and adsorbents process for environment protection. The aim of this work was to study the oily sludge from primary processing (raw and treated) and vacuum residue, with application of thermal analyses technique (pyrolysis), thermal and catalytic pyrolysis with nanomaterials, aiming at production petroleum derived. The sludge and vacuum residue were analyzed using a soxhlet extraction system, elemental analysis, thin layer chromatography, thermogravimetry and pyrolysis coupled in gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (Py GC MS). The catalysts AlMCM-41, AlSBA-15.1 e AlSBA-15.2 were synthesized with molar ratio silicon aluminum of 50 (Si/Al = 50), using tetraethylorthosilicante as source of silicon and pseudobuhemita (AlOOH) as source of aluminum. The analyzes of the catalysts indicate that materials showed hexagonal structure and surface area (783,6 m2/g for AlMCM-41, 600 m2/g for AlSBA-15.1, 377 m2/g for AlSBA-15.2). The extracted oily sludge showed a range 65 to 95% for organic components (oil), 5 to 35% for inorganic components (salts and oxides) and compositions different of derivatives. The AlSBA-15 catalysts showed better performance in analyzes for production petroleum derived, 20% increase in production of kerosene and light gas oil. The energy potential of sludge was high and it can be used as fuel in other cargo processed in refinery

Volatile Oil of Psidium cattleianum Sabine from the Brazilian Atlantic Forest

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)