Interdependence of Emerging Eastern European stock markets

One of the main developments in the global economy during the past decades has been the growth of emerging economies. Projections for their long-term growth, changes in the investment climate, corporate transparency and demography point to an increasing role for these emerging economies in the global economy. Today, emerging economies are usually considered as financial markets offering opportunities for high returns, good risk diversification and improved return-to-risk ratios. However, researchers have noted that these advantages may be in decline because of the increasing market integration. Nevertheless, it is likely that certain financial markets and specific sectors will remain partially segmented and somewhat insulated from the global economy for the year to come. This doctoral dissertation investigates several stock markets in Emerging Eastern Europe (EEE), including the ones in Russia, Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria and Slovenia. The objective is to analyze the returns and financial risks in these emerging markets from international investor’s point of view. This study also examines the segmentation/integration of these financial markets and the possibilities to diversify and hedge financial risk. The dissertation is divided into two parts. The first includes a review of the theoretical background for the articles and a review of the literature on EEE stock markets. It includes an overview of the methodology and research design applied in the analysis and a summary of articles from the second part of this dissertation and their main findings. The second part consists of four research publications. This work contributes to studies on emerging stock markets in four ways. First, it adds to the body of research on the pricing of risk, providing new empirical evidence about partial stock market segmentation in EEE. The results suggest that the aggregate emerging market risk is a relevant driver for stock market returns and that this market risk can be used to price financial instruments and forecast their performance. Second, it contributes to the empirical research on the integration of stock markets, asset prices and exchange rates by identifying the relationships between these markets through volatility and asset pricing. The results show that certain sectors of stock markets in EEE are not as integrated as others. For example, the Polish consumer goods sector, the Hungarian telecommunications sector, and the Czech financial sector are somewhat isolated from their counterparts elsewhere in Europe. Nevertheless, an analysis of the impact of EU accession in 2004 on stock markets suggests that most of the EEE markets are becoming increasingly integrated with the global markets. Third, this thesis complements the scientific literature in the field of shock and volatility spillovers by examining the mechanism of spillover distribution among the EU and EEE countries. The results illustrate that spillovers in emerging markets are mostly from a foreign exchange to the stock markets. Moreover, the results show that the effects of external shocks on stock markets have increased after the enlargement of the EU in 2004. Finally, this study is unique because it analyzes the effects of foreign macroeconomic news on geographically closely related countries. The results suggest that the effects of macroeconomic announcements on volatility are significant and have effect that varies across markets and their sectors. Moreover, the results show that the foreign macroeconomic news releases, somewhat surprisingly, have a greater effect on the EEE markets than the local macroeconomic news. This dissertation has a number of implications for the industry and for practitioners. It analyses financial risk associated with investing in Emerging Eastern Europe. Investors may use this information to construct and optimize investment portfolios. Moreover, this dissertation provides insights for investors and portfolio managers considering asset allocation to protect value or obtain higher returns. The results have also implications for asset pricing and portfolio selection in light of macroeconomic news releases.

Idiosyncratic volatility around information release date

Several papers document idiosyncratic volatility is time-varying and many attempts have been made to reveal whether idiosyncratic risk is priced. This research studies behavior of idiosyncratic volatility around information release dates and also its relation with return after public announcement. The results indicate that when a company discloses specific information to the market, firm’s specific volatility level shifts and short-horizon event-induced volatility vary significantly however, the category to which the announcement belongs is not important in magnitude of change. This event-induced volatility is not small in size and should not be downplayed in event studies. Moreover, this study shows stocks with higher contemporaneous realized idiosyncratic volatility earn lower return after public announcement consistent with “divergence of opinion hypothesis”. While no significant relation is found between EGARCH estimated idiosyncratic volatility and return and also between one-month lagged idiosyncratic volatility and return presumably due to significant jump around public announcement both may provide some signals regarding future idiosyncratic volatility through their correlations with contemporaneous realized idiosyncratic volatility. Finally, the study show that positive relation between return and idiosyncratic volatility based on under-diversification is inadequate to explain all different scenarios and this negative relation after public announcement may provide a useful trading rule.

Market integration, return and volatility dynamics; empirical evidence from African stock markets

Frontier and Emerging economies have implemented policies with the objective of liberalizing their equity markets. Equity market liberalization opens the domestic equity market to foreign investors and as well paves the way for domestic investors to invest in foreign equity securities. Among other things, equity market liberalization results in diversification benefits. Moreover, equity market liberalization leads to low cost of equity capital resulting from the lower rate of return by investors. Additionally, foreign and local investors share any potential risks. Liberalized equity markets also become liquid considering that there are more investors to trade. Equity market liberalization results in financial integration which explains the movement of two markets. In crisis period, increased volatility and co-movement between two markets may result in what is termed contagion effects. In Africa, major moves toward financial liberalization generally started in the late 1980s with South Africa as the pioneer. Over the years, researchers have studied the impact of financial liberalization on Africa’s economic development with diverse results; some being positive, others negative and still others being mixed. The objective of this study is to establish whether African stock-markets are integrated into the United States (US) and World market. Furthermore, the study helps to see if there are international linkages between the Africa, US and the world markets. A Bivariate- VAR- GARCH- BEKK model is employed in the study. In the study, the effect of thin trading is removed through series of econometric data purification. This is because thin trading, also known as non-trading or inconsistency of trading, is a main feature of African markets and may trigger inconsistency and biased results. The study confirmed the widely established results that the South Africa and Egypt stock markets are highly integrated with the US and World market. Interestingly, the study adds to knowledge in this research area by establishing the fact that Kenya is very integrated with the US and World markets and that it receives and exports past innovations as well as shocks to and from the US and World market.

Interdependence of International Stock Markets, European Government Bond Market and Gold Market

This thesis examines the interdependence of international stock markets (the USA, Europe, Japan, emerging markets, and frontier markets), European government bond market, and gold market during the 21st century. Special focus is on the dynamics of the correlations between the markets, as well as on, spillovers in mean returns and volatility. The mean return spillovers are examined on the basis of the bivariate VAR(1) model, whereas the bivariate BEKK-GARCH(1, 1) model is employed for the analysis of the volatility spillovers. In order to analyze the spillover effects in different market conditions, the full sample period from 2000 to 2013 is divided into the pre-crisis period (2000–2006) and the crisis period (2007–2013). The results indicate an increasing interdependence especially within international stock markets during the periods of financial turbulence, and are thus consistent with the existing literature. Hence, bond and gold markets provide the best diversification benefits for equity investors, particularly during the periods of market turmoil.

Currency Carry Trades – Excess Returns and Performance Optimization of G10 Currency Carry Trade Strategies during the Euro Era

This study examines the excess returns provided by G10 currency carry trading during the Euro era. The currency carry trade has been a popular trade throughout the past decades offering excess returns to investors. The thesis aims to contribute to existing research on the topic by utilizing a new set of data for the Euro era as well as using the Euro as a basis for the study. The focus of the thesis is specifically on different carry trade strategies’ performance, risk and diversification benefits. The study finds proof of the failure of the uncovered interest rate parity theory through multiple regression analyses. Furthermore, the research finds evidence of significant diversification benefits in terms of Sharpe ratio and improved return distributions. The results suggest that currency carry trades have offered excess returns during 1999-2014 and that volatility plays an important role in carry trade returns. The risk, however, is diversifiable and therefore our results support previous quantitative research findings on the topic.

POP UP & LEAN START UP - yrittäjyyden opetusmallin kehittämishanke toisen asteen koulutuksessa

Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli tarkastella ammatillisen koulutuksen yrittäjyyskasvatuksen käytännön opetuksen toteutusmahdollisuuksia. Tarkasteluun vaikuttaa vuonna 2015 voimaan astuva ammatillisen perusopetuksen opetussuunnitelmauudistus. Käytännön opetuksen toteutuksen viitekehykseksi valittiin synteesi pop up ja lean startup liiketoimintamallien viitekehyksistä. Tutkimuksen kohteena olivat viralliset opetussuunnitelmauudistuksen asiakirjat ja liiketoimintamalleja käsittelevä kirjallisuus. Tutkimusmenetelmänä käytettiin integoivaa narratiivista kirjallisuusanalyysiä. Aineiston analyysissä käytettiin Atlas-ti ohjelmistoa. Tutkimuksen tuloksena muodostui kuva työelämälähtöisistä uudistuvista opetussuunnitelmista, missä yrittäjyyskasvatuksen rakenteet eivät todellisuudessa muutu entisestä merkittävästi. Sen sijaan, uutta tulevat olemaan opetuksen toteutukselle asetetut haasteet: yksilöllistetyt opintopolut ja opiskelumallien monipuolistamisen merkittävä kasvu. Yrittäjyyskasvatukselle asetetaan Suomessa yhteiskunnallisesti korkeita tavoitteita. Se, miten niihin päästään ja millaisella pedagogiikalla, jää eri ammatillisten oppilaitosten ratkaistavaksi paikallisesti. Pop up ja lean startup liiketoimintamallit tarjoavat tulevaisuuden kannalta merkittäviä mahdollisuuksia yrittäjyyden käytännön opetuksen viitekehyksiksi. Lisäksi ne sopivat nopeatempoiseen ja ajallisesti tiukkarajaiseen opetuksen viitekehykseen hyvin uudenaikaisina asiakaslähtöisinä innovaatio- ja liiketoimintamalleina.

The Russian National Innovation System - an International Perspective

Russia inherited a large research and development (R&D) sector from the Soviet times, and has retained a substantial R&D sector today, compared with other emerging economies. However, Russia is falling behind in all indicators measuring innovative output in comparison with most developed countries. Russia’s innovation performance is disappointing, despite the available stock of human capital and overall investment in R&D. The communist legacy still influences the main actors of the innovation system. The federal state is still the most important funding source for R&D. Private companies are not investing in innovative activities, preferring to “import” innovations embedded in foreign technologies. Universities are outsiders in the innovation system, only a few universities carry out research activities. Nowadays, Russia is a resource-depended country. The economy depends on energy and metals for growth. The Russian economy faces the challenge of diversification and should embrace innovation, and shift to a knowledge economy to remain competitive in the long run. Therefore, Russia has to tackle the challenge of developing an efficient innovation system with its huge potential in science expertise and engineering know-how.

Prospektiteoria ja sijoitusten hajauttaminen

Tämä tutkielma replikoi vuonna 1979 tehtyä Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk tutkimusta. Tutkielman tarkoituksena on tutkia odotetun hyödyn teorian ja prospektiteorian välistä eroa. Lisäksi tutkielmassa pyritään tutkimaan onko vastaajien vastauksilla yhteyttä heidän hajauttamiseensa ulkomaisiin sijoituskohteisiin. Kysymykset ovat suoraan replikoituja lukuun ottamatta viimeistä kysymystä, joka on tutkielman laatijan oma kysymys. Vastaukset on kerätty pörssiyhtiöiden yhtiökokouksissa Suomessa keväällä 2011 ja Lappeenrannan teknillisen yliopiston opiskelijoiden keskuudessa.

Occurrence of Akodon cursor (Rodentia, Cricetidae) with 14, 15 and 16 chromosome cytotypes in the same geographic area in Southern Brazil

The karyotype of Akodon cursor (initially identified as A. arviculoides) had been reported with chromosomal numbers 14 and 15 in the South and Southeast and 16 in Northeastern Brazil. We found the three cytotypes in a region of Southern Brazil. The G-band patterns of these specimens were the same as those from southeastern and northeastern regions. Seventeen different combinations of chromosomes due to a complex rearrangement in pair 1 and pericentric inversions in pairs 2 and 3 were identified. Seven of these combinations are new to in the literature.

Trisomy 13 mosaicism demonstrated only in skin fibroblasts in a patient presenting psychomotor retardation, pigmentary dysplasia and some dysmorphic features

A Brazilian female infant presented delayed psychomotor development, skin pigmentary dysplasia and some dysmorphic features. Chromosome analysis from peripheral blood culture was normal, but the karyotype from skin fibroblasts revealed mosaicism for trisomy 13. This case demonstrates the relevance of performing chromosomal analysis of skin fibroblasts in patients with mental retardation, associated with pigmentary dysplasia of the skin and a normal karyotype in peripheral blood lymphocytes. To our knowledge, it is the first report of trisomy 13 demonstrated only in skin fibroblasts.

First description of microchromosome in the Anostomidae fish Schizodon nasutus from Argentina

Thirty-six specimens of Schizodon nasutus (Anostomidae-Characiformes) from the middle Paraná River (Posadas, Argentina) were analyzed cytogenetically. The karyotype of this species was similar to those described for this species in the literature. C-banding technique showed a rich heterochromatic pattern relative to other Anostomidae species. The NORs were located on one chromosome pair in terminal position and showed a very marked size heteromorphism. A microchromosome was observed with a frequency of about 20% in the sample studied. This additional element was punctiform, negative C-band, and constant in all metaphase plates of the seven carriers. The present study is the first karyotypic approach to Schizodon nasutus from Argentina and the first description of microchromosome in Anostomidae

Chromosome number and secondary constriction variation in 51 accessions of a citrus germplasm bank

The mitotic chromosomes of 51 citrus accessions from the Centro Nacional de Pesquisa em Mandioca e Fruticultura Tropical, Cruz das Almas, BA, Brazil, were analyzed. The sample included representatives of 20 Citrus species, one of Poncirus and seven hybrids. All accessions showed 2n = 18 without any evidence of numerical variation. The most clearly variable karyotype feature was the number and position of secondary constrictions (SECs). In 19 accessions the SECs were not identified, mainly due to the degree of chromatin condensation. In the remainder they varied in number from one to three per karyotype. They were found in the proximal region of one of the three largest chromosome pairs, in the terminal/subterminal region of a smaller chromosome or, more seldom, terminally in a larger chromosome. Only in a few cases were such constrictions observed simultaneously in both homologues of the same chromosome pair. The high variability of this karyotype feature may be due to the activation of this region in the previous interphase but may also indicate a high structural variability and heterozygosity of citrus germplasms

Deletion/inversion in the X-chromosome and increased telomeric associations in a female with primary amenorrhea

We describe a new case of a partial interstitial deletion and inversion of the long arm of the X-chromosome associated with a high incidence of telomeric associations in an 18-year old female who showed underdeveloped secondary sex characteristics, including small breasts and primary amenorrhea. Her karyotype was considered to be 46,X,del(Xq13 -> q22)inv(X)(q23-q27). The buccal mucosal cells showed absence of a typical Barr body, and the 5’-bromo-2-deoxyuridine incorporation studies revealed that neither the normal X-nor the abnormal X-chromosome was late replicating. The case is being presented for its extreme rarity

Evaluation of techniques for C and ASG banding of the mitotic chromosomes of Anastrepha species (Diptera, Tephritidae)

Methods previously described by Canovai et al. (Caryologia 47: 241-247, 1994) which produced C and ASG bands in mitotic chromosomes of Ceratitis capitata were applied to the chromosomes of several Anastrepha species. Metaphase plate yield was substantially increased by use of imaginal disks together with cerebral ganglia. The C-bands were quite prominent allowing the resolution of tiny blocks of heterochromatin. The ASG method produced G-like banded chromosomes, which permitted recognition of each individual chromosome. These simple techniques do not require special equipment and may be valuable for karyotype variability studies in fruit flies and other Diptera

The future of branded sportswear store formats in Germany 2030: Four images of the future

A fast changing dynamic business environment is becoming a norm today in different areas, including retailing. The aims of this study are to explore existing store formats of branded sportswear retailing and their characteristics, and to identify the trends which might shape their future. The ultimate goal, however, is to create and analyze images of the future of branded sportswear retailing in Germany 2030 by applying the methods of futures studies. As theoretical background, the cyclical theories of retail evolution have been used. Empirical material is obtained by conducting a Disaggregative Policy Delphi method based study, the aim of which is to obtain well–argued qualitative and quantitative information from experts about store format development in order to create future images based on cluster analysis. Flagship stores, Concept stores, Factory Outlets, Pop-up stores, E-commerce and M-commerce represent the diversity of store formats existing in Germany today. They have different aims, roles, and advantages which retailers try to leverage. However such trends as multichannel integration, technological enhancements, growing popularity of online channels, switching customer behaviors, customization and personalization, and economic turbulence might shape the future of sportswear retailing. Four future images constructed: “Multichannel Integration”, “Smart and Personal”, “Consumer Diversification”, and “Always Online” – describe alternative futures of German branded sportswear store formats in 2030 based on different trends, assumptions, hopes and fears. They also point out uncertainties in retailing such as cannibalization of channels, the growing power and expectations of consumers, the complexity of multichannel synergies, and the switching customer behavior. Constructed future images, thus, provide readers with an opportunity to imagine and explore alternative states of the future of branded sportswear store formats in Germany 2030. They could serve well as a tool to communicate the results to decision–makers, compare them, and to analyze to inspire and direct actions for a better future tomorrow.