Modelos estocásticos de crescimento individual e desenvolvimento de software de estimação e previsão

Os modelos de crescimento individual são geralmente adaptações de modelos de crescimento de populações. Inicialmente estes modelos eram apenas determinísticos, isto é, não incorporavam as flutuações aleatórias do ambiente. Com o desenvolvimento da teoria do cálculo estocástico podemos adicionar um termo estocástico, que representa a aleatoriedade ambiental que influencia o processo em estudo. Actualmente, o estudo do crescimento individual em ambiente aleatório é cada vez mais importante, não apenas pela vertente financeira, mas também devido às suas aplicações nas áreas da saúde e da pecuária, entre outras. Problemas como o ajustamento de modelos de crescimento individual, estimação de parâmetros e previsão de tamanhos futuros são tratados neste trabalho. São apresentadas novas aplicações do modelo estocástico monomolecular generalizado e um novo software de aplicação deste e de outros modelos. ABSTRACT: Individual growth models are usually adaptations of growth population models. Initially these models were only deterministic, that is, they did not incorporate the random fluctuations of the environment. With the development of the theory of stochastic calculus, we can add a stochastic term that represents the random environmental influences in the process under study. Currently, the study of individual growth in a random environment is increasingly important, not only by the financial scope but also because of its applications in health care and livestock production, among others. Problems such as adjustment of an individual growth model, estimation of parameters and prediction of future sizes are treated in this work. New applications of the generalized stochastic monomolecular model and a new software applied to this and other models are presented.

A staggered approach for the coupling of Cahn–Hilliard type diffusion and finite strain elasticity

We develop an algorithm and computational implementation for simulation of problems that combine Cahn–Hilliard type diffusion with finite strain elasticity. We have in mind applications such as the electro-chemo- mechanics of lithium ion (Li-ion) batteries. We concentrate on basic computational aspects. A staggered algorithm is pro- posed for the coupled multi-field model. For the diffusion problem, the fourth order differential equation is replaced by a system of second order equations to deal with the issue of the regularity required for the approximation spaces. Low order finite elements are used for discretization in space of the involved fields (displacement, concentration, nonlocal concentration). Three (both 2D and 3D) extensively worked numerical examples show the capabilities of our approach for the representation of (i) phase separation, (ii) the effect of concentration in deformation and stress, (iii) the effect of Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00466-015-1235-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. B P. Areias pmaa@uevora.pt 1 Department of Physics, University of Évora, Colégio Luís António Verney, Rua Romão Ramalho, 59, 7002-554 Évora, Portugal 2 ICIST, Lisbon, Portugal 3 School of Engineering, Universidad de Cuenca, Av. 12 de Abril s/n. 01-01-168, Cuenca, Ecuador 4 Institute of Structural Mechanics, Bauhaus-University Weimar, Marienstraße 15, 99423 Weimar, Germany strain in concentration, and (iv) lithiation. We analyze con- vergence with respect to spatial and time discretization and found that very good results are achievable using both a stag- gered scheme and approximated strain interpolation.

Uso do R-shiny para execução de modelos matemáticos via web: estudo de caso sobre a dinâmica de propagação do HLB do citros.

RESUMO - O Huanglongbing (HLB ou Greening) é a doença mais importante e destrutiva da citricultura mundial. Presente de forma endêmica nos continentes asiático e africano há várias décadas, essa doença foi constatada no Brasil em 2004, sendo transmitida pelo psilídeo Diaphorina citri e causada por bactérias de floema Candidatus Liberibacter spp. Para auxiliar o estudo da doença, foram desenvolvidos modelos matemáticos para avaliação da propagação do HLB Citros. Este trabalho tem por objetivo a criação de um sistema para execução via web de um destes modelos, permitindo aos profissionais de diversas formações, em especial os das áreas biológicas, que são os especialistas do domínio em estudo, acesso rápido aos resultados fornecidos pelo modelo matemático, eliminando ainda a necessidade de conhecimento prévio em alguma linguagem de programação ou de métodos de resolução de equações diferenciais. O sistema foi completamente implementado em R, tendo sido o pacote deSolve usado para solução do modelo matemático e o framework web Shiny para a interface com usuário, sendo todos open source.

Ruolo del gene umano CYYR1: dallo studio funzionale dell'ortologo in Danio rerio alla potenziale implicazione in processi tumorigenici

Il locus CYYR1 identificato e clonato sul cromosoma 21 umano è stato caratterizzato dal punto di vista molecolare come un sistema multitrascritto, esclusivo dei vertebrati che ad oggi è orfano di una funzione specifica. Dati presenti in lettura e rintracciati mostrano una possibile relazione tra il gene CYYR1 e il pathway di Sonic Hedgehog (SHH). In questo progetto di tesi è stato utilizzato il modello animale Danio rerio per indagare il ruolo funzionale dell’ortologo (cyyr1), attraverso esperimenti di gain e loss of function che hanno permesso di dimostrare un suo coinvolgimento nello sviluppo del sistema nervoso centrale, del cuore e del tessuto muscolare. Lo studio dell’ortologo in zebrafish è stato associato all’utilizzo di linee cellulari di rabdomiosarcoma umano. I risultati ottenuti dall’induzione al differenziamento miogenico di queste linee, insieme ai dati ottenuti in Danio rerio, confermano il possibile coinvolgimento del gene CYYR1 nella miogenesi. Lo studio delle relazione tra il pathway di SHH e l’espressione del gene CYYR1 è stato condotto in entrambi i modelli con l’utilizzo di differenti inibitori della via di segnalazione. I risultati ottenuti mostrano che sistemi inibitori agenti direttamente sul recettore SMO riducono l’espressione del gene. Un dato inaspettato in Danio rerio ottenuto durante questi esperimenti di inibizione, ha aperto una nuova linea di ricerca in collaborazione con l’Università di Warwick tesa a verificare la relazione tra il gene cyyr1 e il gene lefty1. Gli esperimenti condotti presso il laboratorio della Prof.ssa Sampath hanno dimostrato la localizzazione del prodotto proteico cyyr1 in Danio rerio e indagato co-localizzazioni con la proteina lefty1. Infine, in collaborazione con Dr. Deflorian e della Prof.ssa Pistocchi, è stato generato un mutante di Danio rerio deleto per il gene cyyr1 con la tecnica CRISPR/Cas9. La caratterizzazione del mutante cyyr1 -/- ha confermato alcuni dei dati ottenuti attraverso esperimenti di loss of function.

Molecular Systematics and Traits Evolution in Phasmatodea Leach, 1815 (Hexapoda; Insecta)

Phasmatodea Leach, 1815 (Hexapoda; Insecta) is a polyneopteran order which counts approximately 3000 described species, often known for their remarkable forms of mimicry. In this thesis, I provide a comprehensive systematic framework which includes over 180 species never considered in a phylogenetic framework: the latter can facilitate a better understanding of the processes underlying phasmids evolutionary history. The clade represents in fact an incredible testing ground to study trait evolution and its striking disparity of reproductive strategies and wing morphologies have been of great interest to the evolutionary biology community. Phasmids wings represent one of the first and most notable rejection of Dollo’s law and they played a central role in initiating a long- standing debate on the irreversibility of complex traits loss. Macroevolutionary analyses presented here confirm that wings evolution in phasmids is a reversible process even when possible biases - such as systematic uncertainty and trait-dependent diversification rates - are considered. These findings remark how complex traits can evolve in a dynamic, reversible manner and imply that their molecular groundplan can be preserved despite its phenotypical absence. This concept has been further tested with phylogenetic and transcriptomic approaches in two phasmids parthenogenetic lineages and a bisexual congeneric of the European Bacillus species complex. Leveraging a gene co-expression network approach, male gonad associated genes were retrieved in the bisexual species and then their modifications in the parthenogens were charachterized. Pleiotropy appears to constrain gene modifications associated to male reproductive structures after their loss in parthenogens, so that the lost trait molecular groundplan can be largely preserved in both transcription patterns and sequence evolution. Overall, the results presented in this thesis contribute to shape our understanding of the interplay between the phenotypic and molecular levels in trait evolution.

Neighborhood and Efficiency in Manufacturing in Brazilian Regions: A Spatial Markov Chain Analysis

This paper analyzes the geography of regional competitiveness in manufacturing in Brazil. The authors estimate stochastic frontiers to calculate regional efficiency of representative firms in 137 regions in the period 2000-2006, in four sectors defined by technological intensity. The efficiency results are analyzed using Markov Spatial Transition Matrices to provide insights into the transition of regions between efficiency levels, considering their local spatial context. The results indicate that geography plays an important role in manufacturing competitiveness. In particular, regions with more competitive neighbors are more likely to improve their relative efficiency (pull effect) over time, and regions with less competitive neighbors are more likely to lose relative efficiency (drag effect). The authors find that the pull effect is stronger than the drag effect.

Evolutionary History of Arabidopsis thaliana Aminoacyl-tRNA Synthetase Dual-Targeted Proteins

Aminoacyl-transfer RNA (tRNA) synthetases (aaRS) are key players in translation and act early in protein synthesis by mediating the attachment of amino acids to their cognate tRNA molecules. In plants, protein synthesis may occur in three subcellular compartments (cytosol, mitochondria, and chloroplasts), which requires multiple versions of the protein to be correctly delivered to its proper destination. The organellar aaRS are nuclear encoded and equipped with targeting information at the N-terminal sequence, which enables them to be specifically translocated to their final location. Most of the aaRS families present organellar proteins that are dual targeted to mitochondria and chloroplasts. Here, we examine the dual targeting behavior of aaRS from an evolutionary perspective. Our results show that Arabidopsis thaliana aaRS sequences are a result of a horizontal gene transfer event from bacteria. However, there is no evident bias indicating one single ancestor (Cyanobacteria or Proteobacteria). The dual-targeted aaRS phylogenetic relationship was characterized into two different categories (paralogs and homologs) depending on the state recovered for both dual-targeted and cytosolic proteins. Taken together, our results suggest that the dual-targeted condition is a gain-of-function derived from gene duplication. Selection may have maintained the original function in at least one of the copies as the additional copies diverged.

F-LQE: a Fuzzy Link Quality Estimator for wireless sensor networks

Radio Link Quality Estimation (LQE) is a fundamental building block for Wireless Sensor Networks, namely for a reliable deployment, resource management and routing. Existing LQEs (e.g. PRR, ETX, Fourbit, and LQI ) are based on a single link property, thus leading to inaccurate estimation. In this paper, we propose F-LQE, that estimates link quality on the basis of four link quality properties: packet delivery, asymmetry, stability, and channel quality. Each of these properties is defined in linguistic terms, the natural language of Fuzzy Logic. The overall quality of the link is specified as a fuzzy rule whose evaluation returns the membership of the link in the fuzzy subset of good links. Values of the membership function are smoothed using EWMA filter to improve stability. An extensive experimental analysis shows that F-LQE outperforms existing estimators.

Economias de escala em centros hospitalares

RESUMO - Perante o actual contexto de contenção de gastos no sector da saúde e consequente preocupação com a eficiência do sistema, tem‐se assistido a mudanças várias no modelo de gestão e organizacional do sistema de saúde. Destaca‐se a alteração da estrutura hospitalar, com vista à racionalização dos seus recursos internos, onde as fusões hospitalares têm assumido um papel determinante. Em Portugal, nos últimos 10 anos, assistiu‐se a uma significativa redução do número de hospitais (de sensivelmente 90 para 50 unidades), exclusivamente através das fusões e sem quaisquer alterações no número de estruturas físicas existentes. Não obstante os argumentos justificativos desta reforma, a avaliação dos objectivos implícitos é insuficiente. Neste âmbito, pretendeu‐se com este estudo contribuir para a análise do impacte da criação de centros hospitalares na redução de gastos, isto é, verificar se a consolidação e consequente reengenharia dos processos produtivos teve consequencias ao nível da obtenção de economias de escala. Para esta análise usou‐se uma base de dados em painel, onde se consideraram 75 hospitais durante 7 anos (2003‐2009), número que foi reduzindo ao longo do período em análise devido às inúmeras fusões já referidas. Para avaliar os ganhos relativos às fusões hospitalares, ao nível da eficiência técnica e das economias de escala, recorreu‐se à fronteira estocástica especificada função custo translog. Estimada a fronteira, foi possível analisar três centros hospitalares específicos, onde se comparou o período pré‐fusão (2005‐2006) com o período após a fusão (2008‐2009). Como variáveis explicativas, relativas à produção hospitalar, considerou‐se o número de casos tratados e os dias de internamento (Vita, 1990; Schuffham et al., 1996), o número de consultas e o número de urgências, sendo estas variáveis as mais comuns na literatura (Vita, 1990; Fournier e Mitchell, 1992; Carreira, 1999). Quanto à variável dependente usou‐se o custo variável total, que compreende o total de custos anuais dos hospitais excepto de imobilizado. Como principais conclusões da investigação, em consequência da criação dos centros hospitalares, são de referir os ganhos de escala na fusão de hospitais de reduzida dimensão e com mais serviços complementares. --------ABSTRACT - Driven by the current pressure on resources induced by budgetary cuts, the Portuguese Ministry of Health is imposing changes in the management model and organization of NHS hospitals. The most recent change is based on the creation of Hospital Centres that are a result of administrative mergers of existing hospitals. In less than 10 years the number of hospitals passed from around 90 to around 50, only due to the mergers and without any change in the existing number of physical institutions. According to the political discourse, one of the main goals expected from this measure is the creation of synergies and more efficiency in the use of available resources. However, the merger of the hospitals has been a political decision without support or evaluation of the first experiments. The aim of this study is to measure the results of this policy by looking at economies of scale namely through reductions in the expenditures, as expected and sought by the MoH. Data used covers 7 years (2003‐2009) and 75 hospitals, number that has been reduced my the enoumerous mergers during the last decade. This work uses a stochastic frontier analysis through the translog cost function to examine the gains from mergers, which were decomposed into technical efficiency and economies of scale. It was analised these effects by the creation of three specific hospital centers, using a longitudinal approach to compare the period pre‐merger (2003‐2006) with the post‐merger period (2007‐09). To measure changes in inpatient hospital production volume and length of stay are going to be considered as done by Vita (1990) and Schuffham et al. (1996). For outpatient services the number of consultations and emergencies are going to be considered (Vita, 1990; Fournier e Mitchell, 1992; Carreira, 1999). Total variable cost is considered as the dependent variable explained the aforementioned ones. After a review of the literature results expected point to benefits from the mergers, namely a reduction in total expenditures and in the number of duplicated services. Results extracted from our data point in the same direction, and thus for the existence of some economies of scale only for small hospitals.

A Retail benchmarking approach to eficient two-way access pricing

We study a retail benchmarking approach to determine access prices for interconnected networks. Instead of considering fixed access charges as in the existing literature, we study access pricing rules that determine the access price that network i pays to network j as a linear function of the marginal costs and the retail prices set by both networks. In the case of competition in linear prices, we show that there is a unique linear rule that implements the Ramsey outcome as the unique equilibrium, independently of the underlying demand conditions. In the case of competition in two-part tariffs, we consider a class of access pricing rules, similar to the optimal one under linear prices but based on average retail prices. We show that firms choose the variable price equal to the marginal cost under this class of rules. Therefore, the regulator (or the competition authority) can choose one among the rules to pursue additional objectives such as consumer surplus, network covera.

Complete hypogonadotropic hypogonadism associated with a novel inactivating mutation of the gonadotropin-releasing hormone receptor.

In this study, we describe a patient with a phenotype of complete hypogonadotropic hypogonadism who presented primary failure of pulsatile GnRH therapy, but responded to exogenous gonadotropin administration. This patient bore a novel point mutation (T for A) at codon 168 of the gene encoding the GnRH receptor (GnRH-R), resulting in a serine to arginine change in the fourth transmembrane domain of the receptor. This novel mutation was present in the homozygous state in the patient, whereas it was in the heterozygous state in both phenotypically normal parents. When introduced into the complementary DNA coding for the GnRH-R, this mutation resulted in the complete loss of the receptor-mediated signaling response to GnRH. In conclusion, we report the first mutation of the GnRH-R gene that can induce a total loss of function of this receptor and is associated with a phenotype of complete hypogonadotropic hypogonadism.

Asthme a début tardif [Late-onset asthma].

Late-onset asthma is a common disease, with characteristics that differentiate it from childhood asthma persisting in adults, including a heterogeneity of underlying mechanism, a correlation with occupational exposure and the tendency to chronicize. Inadequate perception of the disease importance and difficulties in diagnosis, due to the association to COPD, the broad differential diagnosis spectrum and an atypical clinical manifestation, make this disease entity underdiagnosed and under-treated, with consequences for morbidity and mortality. The treatment of adults with asthma follows the usual guidelines, but must take into account an occasional poor therapeutic response and the risk of side effects in polymorbid patients.

Survival, classifications, and desmosomal plaque genes in non-small cell lung cancer.

Novel biomarkers are required to improve prognostic predictions obtained with lung cancer staging systems. This study of 62 surgically-treated Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) patients had two objectives: i) to compare the predictive value of T-stage classifications between the 6(th) and 7(th) editions of the Tumor, Node, and Metastasis staging system (TNM); and ii) to examine the association of Pkp1 and/or Krt15 gene expression with survival and outcomes. Multivariate and Kaplan-Meier survival analyses were performed, examining the relationship of survival with T-stage, recurrence, and TNM-stage (by each TNM edition) and with the single/combined expression of Pkp1 and/or Krt15 genes. Five-year survival rates only significantly differed as a function of T-stage in patients without recurrence when estimated using the 6(th) edition of the TNM classification and only in patients in pathologic TNM-stage IA using the 7(th). Overall survival for patients with elevated expression of both genes was 13.5 months in those with adenocarcinoma and 34.6 months in those with squamous cell carcinoma. Overall survival was 30.4 months in patients with Pkp1 gene upregulation and 30.9 months in those with Krt15 gene upregulation. In conclusion, survival estimations as a function of T-staging differed between the 6(th) and 7(th) editions of TNM. Overall survival differed according to the expression of Pkp1 and/or Krt15 genes, although this relationship did not reach statistical significance.

CYR61 and alphaVbeta5 integrin cooperate to promote invasion and metastasis of tumors growing in preirradiated stroma.

Radiotherapy is widely used to treat human cancer. Patients locally recurring after radiotherapy, however, have increased risk of metastatic progression and poor prognosis. The clinical management of postradiation recurrences remains an unresolved issue. Tumors growing in preirradiated tissues have an increased fraction of hypoxic cells and are more metastatic, a condition known as tumor bed effect. The transcription factor hypoxia inducible factor (HIF)-1 promotes invasion and metastasis of hypoxic tumors, but its role in the tumor bed effect has not been reported. Here, we show that tumor cells derived from SCCVII and HCT116 tumors growing in a preirradiated bed, or selected in vitro through repeated cycles of severe hypoxia, retain invasive and metastatic capacities when returned to normoxia. HIF activity, although facilitating metastatic spreading of tumors growing in a preirradiated bed, is not essential. Through gene expression profiling and gain- and loss-of-function experiments, we identified the matricellular protein CYR61 and alphaVbeta5 integrin as proteins cooperating to mediate these effects. The anti-alphaV integrin monoclonal antibody 17E6 and the small molecular alphaVbeta3/alphaVbeta5 integrin inhibitor EMD121974 suppressed invasion and metastasis induced by CYR61 and attenuated metastasis of tumors growing within a preirradiated field. These results represent a conceptual advance to the understanding of the tumor bed effect and identify CYR61 and alphaVbeta5 integrin as proteins that cooperate to mediate metastasis. They also identify alphaV integrin inhibition as a potential therapeutic approach for preventing metastasis in patients at risk for postradiation recurrences.

Transforming growth factor-beta: the breaking open of a black box.

Transforming growth factor-beta (TGF-beta) and its related proteins regulate broad aspects of body development, including cell proliferation, differentiation, apoptosis and gene expression, in various organisms. Deregulated TGF-beta function has been causally implicated in the generation of human fibrotic disorders and in tumor progression. Nevertheless, the molecular mechanisms of TGF-beta action remained essentially unknown until recently. Here, we discuss recent progress in our understanding of the mechanism of TGF-beta signal transduction with respect to the regulation of gene expression, the control of cell phenotype and the potential usage of TGF-beta for the treatment of human diseases.