904 resultados para crossing the road
Resumo:
The current state of the practice in Blackspot Identification (BSI) utilizes safety performance functions based on total crash counts to identify transport system sites with potentially high crash risk. This paper postulates that total crash count variation over a transport network is a result of multiple distinct crash generating processes including geometric characteristics of the road, spatial features of the surrounding environment, and driver behaviour factors. However, these multiple sources are ignored in current modelling methodologies in both trying to explain or predict crash frequencies across sites. Instead, current practice employs models that imply that a single underlying crash generating process exists. The model mis-specification may lead to correlating crashes with the incorrect sources of contributing factors (e.g. concluding a crash is predominately caused by a geometric feature when it is a behavioural issue), which may ultimately lead to inefficient use of public funds and misidentification of true blackspots. This study aims to propose a latent class model consistent with a multiple crash process theory, and to investigate the influence this model has on correctly identifying crash blackspots. We first present the theoretical and corresponding methodological approach in which a Bayesian Latent Class (BLC) model is estimated assuming that crashes arise from two distinct risk generating processes including engineering and unobserved spatial factors. The Bayesian model is used to incorporate prior information about the contribution of each underlying process to the total crash count. The methodology is applied to the state-controlled roads in Queensland, Australia and the results are compared to an Empirical Bayesian Negative Binomial (EB-NB) model. A comparison of goodness of fit measures illustrates significantly improved performance of the proposed model compared to the NB model. The detection of blackspots was also improved when compared to the EB-NB model. In addition, modelling crashes as the result of two fundamentally separate underlying processes reveals more detailed information about unobserved crash causes.
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Speeding is a major contributor to road injuries and fatalities and remains prevalent. Changing community perceptions about speeding is an important priority. Austroads commissioned research to identify a range of potential interventions for future trial and evaluation aimed at creating, increasing, and/or sustaining public demand for safer speeds. This project had three phases: a literature review; consultations with key stakeholders regarding intervention options (including feasibility, and likely benefits and costs of identified interventions); and providing research results, including recommendations for future phases of the program of work. The literature review led to the development of a draft Campaign Strategy targeting nine aims across three themes underpinning this research: 1) creating, 2) increasing, and 3) sustaining public demand for safer speeds on the road. Twenty-one stakeholders commented on the suitability and feasibility of, and likely barriers to, countermeasures within the draft Campaign Strategy and its applicability to the Australian and New Zealand context. There was overwhelming positive support for the proposed Campaign Strategy by the majority of respondents; many, noting that it addressed key misperceptions and complemented many existing approaches. A small number of respondents expressed some concerns with various aspects. Stakeholder feedback was incorporated into the final proposed Campaign Strategy to enhance its potential effectiveness. Wide diversity across jurisdictions makes the recommendation of individual interventions for specific areas problematic. Individual jurisdictions should consider a range of costs and benefits of the proposed Campaign Strategy to determine the likely feasibility from their unique perspective. Issues to be addressed when considering implementation of the proposed Campaign Strategy include speed limit setting policies, resourcing, messaging and advertising strategies, and political will associated with promoting safer speeds.
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The research goal was to clarify how ministers in the Evangelical Lutheran Church of Finland construct their identities when they confront family and sexual issues, particularly as seen in their narrations about their work and the factors that influence their ways of working. The approach was a narrative one placing the emphases was on the internal story. The research material consisted of interviews of 19 ministers and the written biographies of 3 ministers who had also been interviewed. The data was analysed narratively (analysis of the narrations and a narrative analysis). The life stories were classified on the basis of the logic in each, and five different internal story types were created: the persons on the road to recovery, those within safe boundaries, those who had learnt to be critical, those with an obligation to help, and those who had grown to be open. In all of the story types was evidented a conflict between the ministry of the Church and the way it was adapted to the lives of individuals experiencing family and sexual issues. On one hand, this was a source of stress at work, but on the other, it offered a chance to create new images of ministers struggling with family and sexual issues. Life experience was found to be important when the study subjects interpreted and dealt with family and sexual issues. Those on the road to recovery felt that becoming a Christian and the personal recovery that faith had made possible had a significant impact on their personal lives. This healing effect of faith was also a strengthening factor for them when they dealt with family and sexual issues. Typically, they approached work situations by taking into account their faith and the type of psychological knowledge that was acceptable within the boundaries set by it. Those within safe boundaries worked within the limits prescribed by the revivalist movement that they had grown up in, from their childhood onwards, and their experiences in adulthood had even strengthened their commitment to the movement. Typically, they were keen to proclaim the views of the movement in public, but they were also prone to stay silent if and when felt those views would cause an uproar. Those who had learnt to be critical had previously been holistically committed to the views expressed by the Church in family and sexual matters. It was their experiences in life that had led them into conflict with the teachings of the Church. Their approach to work was one of ambivalence resulting from a conflict between their current and previous views, which was further exacerbated by their irresolution concerning how a minister should act in these situations. Those with an obligation to help questioned the church teachings marriage as the only family ideal. When they met various kinds of families and sexual identities, and also when they adopted the identity of a helper, the foundation of their ministerial identity was the Two Commandments of Love. Their work was burdened, however, by a fear of how the Church and the parishioners would take their teaching. Those who had grown to be open were more sure of themselves than the other groups. Years in the ministry as well as life-long experience had made them into persons who were following paths of their own. Openly critical of the views on family and sexual issues proclaimed by the Church, they were keen to present their personal convictions and were able to defend these publicly when necessary. Search words: Narrative research, internal story, minister, church, family, sexuality.
Resumo:
Sormen koukistajajännevamman korjauksen jälkeisen aktiivisen mobilisaation on todettu johtavan parempaan toiminnalliseen lopputulokseen kuin nykyisin yleisesti käytetyn dynaamisen mobilisaation. Aktiivisen mobilisaation ongelma on jännekorjauksen pettämisriskin lisääntyminen nykyisten ommeltekniikoiden riittämättömän vahvuuden vuoksi. Jännekorjauksen lujuutta on parannettu kehittämällä monisäieommeltekniikoita, joissa jänteeseen tehdään useita rinnakkaisia ydinompeleita. Niiden kliinistä käyttöä rajoittaa kuitenkin monimutkainen ja aikaa vievä tekninen suoritus. Käden koukistajajännekorjauksessa käytetään yleisesti sulamattomia ommelmateriaaleja. Nykyiset käytössä olevat biohajoavat langat heikkenevät liian nopeasti jänteen paranemiseen nähden. Biohajoavan laktidistereokopolymeeri (PLDLA) 96/4 – langan vetolujuuden puoliintumisajan sekä kudosominaisuuksien on aiemmin todettu soveltuvan koukistajajännekorjaukseen. Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli kehittää välittömän aktiivisen mobilisaation kestävä ja toteutukseltaan yksinkertainen käden koukistajajännekorjausmenetelmä biohajoavaa PLDLA 96/4 –materiaalia käyttäen. Tutkimuksessa analysoitiin viiden eri yleisesti käytetyn koukistajajänneompeleen biomekaanisia ominaisuuksia staattisessa vetolujuustestauksessa ydinompeleen rakenteellisten ominaisuuksien – 1) säikeiden (lankojen) lukumäärän, 2) langan paksuuden ja 3) ompeleen konfiguraation – vaikutuksen selvittämiseksi jännekorjauksen pettämiseen ja vahvuuteen. Jännekorjausten näkyvän avautumisen todettiin alkavan perifeerisen ompeleen pettäessä voima-venymäkäyrän myötöpisteessä. Ydinompeleen lankojen lukumäärän lisääminen paransi ompeleen pitokykyä jänteessä ja suurensi korjauksen myötövoimaa. Sen sijaan paksumman (vahvemman) langan käyttäminen tai ompeleen konfiguraatio eivät vaikuttaneet myötövoimaan. Tulosten perusteella tutkittiin mahdollisuuksia lisätä ompeleen pitokykyä jänteestä yksinkertaisella monisäieompeleella, jossa ydinommel tehtiin kolmen säikeen polyesterilangalla tai nauhamaisen rakenteen omaavalla kolmen säikeen polyesterilangalla. Nauhamainen rakenne lisäsi merkitsevästi ompeleen pitokykyä jänteessä parantaen myötövoimaa sekä maksimivoimaa. Korjauksen vahvuus ylitti aktiivisen mobilisaation jännekorjaukseen kohdistaman kuormitustason. PLDLA 96/4 –langan soveltuvuutta koukistajajännekorjaukseen selvitettiin tutkimalla langan biomekaanisia ominaisuuksia ja solmujen pito-ominaisuuksia staattisessa vetolujuustestauksessa verrattuna yleisimmin jännekorjauksessa käytettävään punottuun polyesterilankaan (Ticron®). PLDLA –langan todettiin soveltuvan hyvin koukistajajännekorjaukseen, sillä se on polyesterilankaa venymättömämpi ja solmujen pitävyys on parempi. Viimeisessä vaiheessa tutkittiin PLDLA 96/4 –langasta valmistetulla kolmisäikeisellä, nauhamaisella jännekorjausvälineellä tehdyn jännekorjauksen kestävyyttä staattisessa vetolujuustestauksessa sekä syklisessä kuormituksessa, joka simuloi staattista testausta paremmin mobilisaation toistuvaa kuormitusta. PLDLA-korjauksen vahvuus ylitti sekä staattisessa että syklisessä kuormituksessa aktiivisen mobilisaation edellyttämän vahvuuden. Nauhamaista litteää ommelmateriaalia ei aiemmin ole tutkittu tai käytetty käden koukistajajännekorjauksessa. Tässä tutkimuksessa ommelmateriaalin nauhamainen rakenne paransi merkitsevästi jännekorjauksen vahvuutta, minkä arvioidaan johtuvan lisääntyneestä kontaktipinnasta jänteen ja ommelmateriaalin välillä estäen ompeleen läpileikkautumista jänteessä. Tutkimuksessa biohajoavasta PLDLA –materiaalista valmistetulla rakenteeltaan nauhamaisella kolmisäikeisellä langalla tehdyn jännekorjauksen vahvuus saavutti aktiivisen mobilisaation edellyttämän tason. Lisäksi uusi menetelmä on helppokäyttöinen ja sillä vältetään perinteisten monisäieompeleiden tekniseen suoritukseen liittyvät ongelmat.
Resumo:
There is a growing need to understand the exchange processes of momentum, heat and mass between an urban surface and the atmosphere as they affect our quality of life. Understanding the source/sink strengths as well as the mixing mechanisms of air pollutants is particularly important due to their effects on human health and climate. This work aims to improve our understanding of these surface-atmosphere interactions based on the analysis of measurements carried out in Helsinki, Finland. The vertical exchange of momentum, heat, carbon dioxide (CO2) and aerosol particle number was measured with the eddy covariance technique at the urban measurement station SMEAR III, where the concentrations of ultrafine, accumulation mode and coarse particle numbers, nitrogen oxides (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO), ozone (O3) and sulphur dioxide (SO2) were also measured. These measurements were carried out over varying measurement periods between 2004 and 2008. In addition, black carbon mass concentration was measured at the Helsinki Metropolitan Area Council site during three campaigns in 1996-2005. Thus, the analyzed dataset covered far, the most comprehensive long-term measurements of turbulent fluxes reported in the literature from urban areas. Moreover, simultaneously measured urban air pollution concentrations and turbulent fluxes were examined for the first time. The complex measurement surrounding enabled us to study the effect of different urban covers on the exchange processes from a single point of measurement. The sensible and latent heat fluxes closely followed the intensity of solar radiation, and the sensible heat flux always exceeded the latent heat flux due to anthropogenic heat emissions and the conversion of solar radiation to direct heat in urban structures. This urban heat island effect was most evident during winter nights. The effect of land use cover was seen as increased sensible heat fluxes in more built-up areas than in areas with high vegetation cover. Both aerosol particle and CO2 exchanges were largely affected by road traffic, and the highest diurnal fluxes reached 109 m-2 s-1 and 20 µmol m-2 s-1, respectively, in the direction of the road. Local road traffic had the greatest effect on ultrafine particle concentrations, whereas meteorological variables were more important for accumulation mode and coarse particle concentrations. The measurement surroundings of the SMEAR III station served as a source for both particles and CO2, except in summer, when the vegetation uptake of CO2 exceeded the anthropogenic sources in the vegetation sector in daytime, and we observed a downward median flux of 8 µmol m-2 s-1. This work improved our understanding of the interactions between an urban surface and the atmosphere in a city located at high latitudes in a semi-continental climate. The results can be utilised in urban planning, as the fraction of vegetation cover and vehicular activity were found to be the major environmental drivers affecting most of the exchange processes. However, in order to understand these exchange and mixing processes on a city scale, more measurements above various urban surfaces accompanied by numerical modelling are required.
Resumo:
Background Traffic offences have been considered an important predictor of crash involvement, and have often been used as a proxy safety variable for crashes. However the association between crashes and offences has never been meta-analysed and the population effect size never established. Research is yet to determine the extent to which this relationship may be spuriously inflated through systematic measurement error, with obvious implications for researchers endeavouring to accurately identify salient factors predictive of crashes. Methodology and Principal Findings Studies yielding a correlation between crashes and traffic offences were collated and a meta-analysis of 144 effects drawn from 99 road safety studies conducted. Potential impact of factors such as age, time period, crash and offence rates, crash severity and data type, sourced from either self-report surveys or archival records, were considered and discussed. After weighting for sample size, an average correlation of r = .18 was observed over the mean time period of 3.2 years. Evidence emerged suggesting the strength of this correlation is decreasing over time. Stronger correlations between crashes and offences were generally found in studies involving younger drivers. Consistent with common method variance effects, a within country analysis found stronger effect sizes in self-reported data even controlling for crash mean. Significance The effectiveness of traffic offences as a proxy for crashes may be limited. Inclusion of elements such as independently validated crash and offence histories or accurate measures of exposure to the road would facilitate a better understanding of the factors that influence crash involvement.
Resumo:
This master s thesis examines tourism related housing and related discourses in the village of Kilpisjärvi, Finland. I study the tourism development in Kilpisjärvi and the debate related to this process. My methodology is based on discourse and content analysis. The purpose of this study is to examine and classify the discourses of tourism related housing and what are the lessons learned from the recent development of Kilpisjärvi. Kilpisjärvi is the northernmost village in western Finnish Lapland, located in the middle of the highest mountain area of Finland. The area has been reindeer herding area of Saami people for centuries, but it has lacked permanent settlement until the beginning of 20th century. The first tourist accommodation was built in 1930s, followed by the road in 1940s and the hotel in 1950s. Traditionally the area has attracted skiers and hikers. The area is also known for its extraordinary nature and rare plant life. Tourism development was slow in Kilpisjärvi until the turn of millennium when rapid growth in tourism related housing was triggered by extensive land use planning. Small wilderness village of Kilpisjärvi has grown to a tourism centre with over 800 beds in commercial enterprises, more than hundred second-homes, and two large caravan areas. This development has raised conflicts among villagers. The empirical part of this study is based on the interviews of 17 permanent dwellers of Kilpisjärvi and three Norwegian cottage owners. Six discourses can be distinguished: 1) Nature and landscape, 2) Economy, 3) Place, 4)Reindeer herding, 5) Governance and 6) Possibilities to influence decision-making. The first discourse stressed that tourism development and building should adapt to nature and landscape, while economic discourse stressed the economical importance of tourism to Kilpisjärvi and the municipality of Enontekiö. The third discourse noted the change of Kilpisjärvi as a place due to the boom of tourism development. The discourse of reindeer herding was clearly distinguished from others, seeing tourism development merely negative. Governance was seen as an important tool in regulating development, but many saw that the municipal administration has failed to take into account other aspects of tourism development than economical factors. Many villagers saw their influence in decision-making weak, while landowners and municipal decision-makers were seen as oligarchy in land-use planning regardless of formal participatory planning process enforced by law. I conclude that it is important to take into account the diversity of local discourses in tourism development and land use issues. Transparent and genuine participatory planning process would promote sustainable development, prevent conflicts and allow decisions and development which would satisfy larger number of local dwellers than presently.
Resumo:
Earlier work has suggested that large-scale dynamos can reach and maintain equipartition field strengths on a dynamical time scale only if magnetic helicity of the fluctuating field can be shed from the domain through open boundaries. To test this scenario in convection-driven dynamos by comparing results for open and closed boundary conditions. Three-dimensional numerical simulations of turbulent compressible convection with shear and rotation are used to study the effects of boundary conditions on the excitation and saturation level of large-scale dynamos. Open (vertical field) and closed (perfect conductor) boundary conditions are used for the magnetic field. The contours of shear are vertical, crossing the outer surface, and are thus ideally suited for driving a shear-induced magnetic helicity flux. We find that for given shear and rotation rate, the growth rate of the magnetic field is larger if open boundary conditions are used. The growth rate first increases for small magnetic Reynolds number, Rm, but then levels off at an approximately constant value for intermediate values of Rm. For large enough Rm, a small-scale dynamo is excited and the growth rate in this regime increases proportional to Rm^(1/2). In the nonlinear regime, the saturation level of the energy of the mean magnetic field is independent of Rm when open boundaries are used. In the case of perfect conductor boundaries, the saturation level first increases as a function of Rm, but then decreases proportional to Rm^(-1) for Rm > 30, indicative of catastrophic quenching. These results suggest that the shear-induced magnetic helicity flux is efficient in alleviating catastrophic quenching when open boundaries are used. The horizontally averaged mean field is still weakly decreasing as a function of Rm even for open boundaries.
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The probability distribution of the instantaneous incremental yield of an inelastic system is characterized in terms of a conditional probability and average rate of crossing. The detailed yield statistics of a single degree-of-freedom elasto-plastic system under a Gaussian white noise are obtained for both nonstationary and stationary response. The present analysis indicates that the yield damage is sensitive to viscous damping. The spectra of mean and mean square damage rate are presented.
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Two methods of pre-harvest inventory were designed and tested on three cutting sites containing a total of 197 500 m3 of wood. These sites were located on flat-ground boreal forests located in northwestern Quebec. Both methods studied involved scaling of trees harvested to clear the road path one year (or more) prior to harvest of adjacent cut-blocks. The first method (ROAD) considers the total road right-of-way volume divided by the total road area cleared. The resulting volume per hectare is then multiplied by the total cut-block area scheduled for harvest during the following year to obtain the total estimated cutting volume. The second method (STRATIFIED) also involves scaling of trees cleared from the road. However, in STRATIFIED, log scaling data are stratified by forest stand location. A volume per hectare is calculated for each stretch of road that crosses a single forest stand. This volume per hectare is then multiplied by the remaining area of the same forest stand scheduled for harvest one year later. The sum of all resulting estimated volumes per stand gives the total estimated cutting-volume for all cut-blocks adjacent to the studied road. A third method (MNR) was also used to estimate cut-volumes of the sites studied. This method represents the actual existing technique for estimating cutting volume in the province of Quebec. It involves summing the cut volume for all forest stands. The cut volume is estimated by multiplying the area of each stand by its estimated volume per hectare obtained from standard stock tables provided by the governement. The resulting total estimated volume per cut-block for all three methods was then compared with the actual measured cut-block volume (MEASURED). This analysis revealed a significant difference between MEASURED and MNR methods with the MNR volume estimate being 30 % higher than MEASURED. However, no significant difference from MEASURED was observed for volume estimates for the ROAD and STRATIFIED methods which respectively had estimated cutting volumes 19 % and 5 % lower than MEASURED. Thus the ROAD and STRATIFIED methods are good ways to estimate cut-block volumes after road right-of-way harvest for conditions similar to those examined in this study.
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A dual beam excitation-depletion pulse technique is proposed for photobleaching reduced fluorescence correlation spectroscopy (FCS). Excitation pulse promote the molecules to the excited singlet state (S-1), a fraction of that population goes to energetically favorable metastable triplet state (T-1) due to strong intersystem crossing. The depletion pulse followed by excitation pulse instantaneously depletes the triplet states thereby recycling the bleached molecules back to the ground state (S-0). FCS study on diffusing Fluorescein and Rh6G molecules show more than 95% reduction in triplet state population and the associated photobleaching. (c) 2010 American Institute of Physics.
Resumo:
Afrikkalainen sikarutto on lakisääteisesti vastustettava helposti leviävä sikojen ja villisikojen virustauti, jolla on myös vakavia sosioekonomisia vaikutuksia. Akuutissa tautimuodossa eläimillä esiintyy syömättömyyttä, korkeaa kuumetta, verenpurkaumia iholla, veristä ulostetta sekä mahdollisesti ripulia. Kuolleisuus on lähes 100 % ja tauti johtaa kuolemaan 7-10 vrk tartunnan jälkeen. Tauti ei tartu ihmisiin. Tautia esiintyy sekä kesy- että villisioissa suurimmassa osassa Saharan eteläpuolista Afrikkaa ja Sardiniassa. Vuodesta 2007 lähtien tautia on esiintynyt Kaukasuksen alueella ja vuonna 2011 lähellä Suomen rajaa: Leningradin alueella ja Kuolan niemimaalla. Tässä riskiprofiilissa kartoitetaan reitit ja tapahtumasarjat, jotka voivat johtaa siihen, että afrikkalainen sikarutto tulee Suomeen ensimmäisen kerran. Näistä oleellisimmat ovat: maahantulo infektioalueella matkustaneiden ihmisten mukana, infektoituneen lihan tai lihatuotteen mukana, elävien kesysikojen ja sperman mukana, kontaminoituneiden eläinkuljetusajoneuvojen mukana, kansainvälisen liikenteen ruokajätteen mukana ja Suomeen vaeltavan infektoituneen villisian mukana. Tilatason tautisuojaus sekä tehokas ja kohdennettu tiedottaminen taudin vaaroista ovat avainasemassa, kun halutaan suojata Suomen sikaelinkeinoa afrikkalaiselta sikarutolta.
Resumo:
The world of mapping has changed. Earlier, only professional experts were responsible for map production, but today ordinary people without any training or experience can become map-makers. The number of online mapping sites, and the number of volunteer mappers has increased significantly. The development of the technology, such as satellite navigation systems, Web 2.0, broadband Internet connections, and smartphones, have had one of the key roles in enabling the rise of volunteered geographic information (VGI). As opening governmental data to public is a current topic in many countries, the opening of high quality geographical data has a central role in this study. The aim of this study is to investigate how is the quality of spatial data produced by volunteers by comparing it with the map data produced by public authorities, to follow what occurs when spatial data are opened for users, and to get acquainted with the user profile of these volunteer mappers. A central part of this study is OpenStreetMap project (OSM), which aim is to create a map of the entire world by volunteers. Anyone can become an OpenStreetMap contributor, and the data created by the volunteers are free to use for anyone without restricting copyrights or license charges. In this study OpenStreetMap is investigated from two viewpoints. In the first part of the study, the aim was to investigate the quality of volunteered geographic information. A pilot project was implemented by following what occurs when a high-resolution aerial imagery is released freely to the OpenStreetMap contributors. The quality of VGI was investigated by comparing the OSM datasets with the map data of The National Land Survey of Finland (NLS). The quality of OpenStreetMap data was investigated by inspecting the positional accuracy and the completeness of the road datasets, as well as the differences in the attribute datasets between the studied datasets. Also the OSM community was under analysis and the development of the map data of OpenStreetMap was investigated by visual analysis. The aim of the second part of the study was to analyse the user profile of OpenStreetMap contributors, and to investigate how the contributors act when collecting data and editing OpenStreetMap. The aim was also to investigate what motivates users to map and how is the quality of volunteered geographic information envisaged. The second part of the study was implemented by conducting a web inquiry to the OpenStreetMap contributors. The results of the study show that the quality of OpenStreetMap data compared with the data of National Land Survey of Finland can be defined as good. OpenStreetMap differs from the map of National Land Survey especially because of the amount of uncertainty, for example because of the completeness and uniformity of the map are not known. The results of the study reveal that opening spatial data increased notably the amount of the data in the study area, and both the positional accuracy and completeness improved significantly. The study confirms the earlier arguments that only few contributors have created the majority of the data in OpenStreetMap. The inquiry made for the OpenStreetMap users revealed that the data are most often collected by foot or by bicycle using GPS device, or by editing the map with the help of aerial imageries. According to the responses, the users take part to the OpenStreetMap project because they want to make maps better, and want to produce maps, which have information that is up-to-date and cannot be found from any other maps. Almost all of the users exploit the maps by themselves, most popular methods being downloading the map into a navigator or into a mobile device. The users regard the quality of OpenStreetMap as good, especially because of the up-to-dateness and the accuracy of the map.
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According to the literature and statistical figures, professional drivers constitute a high-risk group in traffic and should be investigated in connection with the factors related to safe driving. However, safety-related behaviours and outcomes among professional drivers have attracted very little attention from safety researchers. In addition, comparing different professional and non-professional driver groups in terms of critical on-the-road characteristics and outcomes has been indicated in the literature as being necessary for a more comprehensive understanding of driver groups and the nature of driving itself. The aim of the present study was to investigate professional driving from a safety climate stand point in relation to predominant driving-related factors and by considering the differences between driver groups. Hence, four Sub-studies were conducted according to a framework emphasizing the relationships between safety climate, driver groups, driver stress, human factors (i.e., driver behaviour and performance) and accidents. Demographic information, as well as data for driver behaviour, performance, and driver stress was collected by questionnaire. The data was analysed using factor analysis, analysis of covariance as well as hierarchical and logistic regression analysis. The results revealed multi-dimensional factor structures for the safety climate measures. Considering the relationships between variables, differences were evidenced regarding on-the-road stress reactions, risky driver behaviours and penalties, between the various professional and non-professional driver groups. Driver stress was found to be related to accidents. The results also indicated that the safety climate has positive relationships with both driver behaviour and performance, and as well as involvement in accidents. The present study has a number of critical implications resulting from the fact that the way in which the effects of safety climate on professional driving were investigated, as well as the differences between professional and non-professional driver groups, was unique. Additionally, for the first time, a safety climate scale was developed specifically for professional drivers. According to the results of the study and to previous literature, a tentative model was proposed representing a possible route for the relationships between safety climate, human factors, driver stress, driver groups and accidents, by emphasizing the effects of safety climate.
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Raportissa on arvioitu ilmastonmuutoksen vaikutusta Suomen maaperän talviaikaiseen jäätymiseen lämpösummien perusteella. Laskelmat kuvaavat roudan paksuutta nimenomaisesti lumettomilla alueilla, esimerkiksi teillä, joilta satanut lumi aurataan pois. Luonnossa lämpöä eristävän lumipeitteen alla routaa on ohuemmin kuin tällaisilla lumettomilla alueilla. Toisaalta luonnollisessa ympäristössä paikalliset erot korostuvat johtuen mm. maalajeista ja kasvillisuudesta. Roudan paksuudet laskettiin ensin perusjakson 1971–2000 ilmasto-oloissa talviaikaisten säähavaintotietoihin pohjautuvien lämpötilojen perusteella. Sen jälkeen laskelmat toistettiin kolmelle tulevalle ajanjaksolle (2010–2039, 2040–2069 ja 2070–2099) kohottamalla lämpötiloja ilmastonmuutosmallien ennustamalla tavalla. Laskelman pohjana käytettiin 19 ilmastomallin A1B-skenaarioajojen keskimäärin simuloimaa lämpötilan muutosta. Tulosten herkkyyden arvioimiseksi joitakin laskelmia tehtiin myös tätä selvästi heikompaa ja voimakkaampaa lämpenemisarviota käyttäen. A1B-skenaarion mukaisen lämpötilan nousun toteutuessa nykyisiä mallituloksia vastaavasti routakerros ohenee sadan vuoden aikana Pohjois-Suomessa 30–40 %, suuressa osassa maan keski- ja eteläosissa 50–70 %. Jo lähivuosikymmeninä roudan ennustetaan ohentuvan 10–30 %, saaristossa enemmän. Mikäli lämpeneminen toteutuisi voimakkaimman tarkastellun vaihtoehdon mukaisesti, roudan syvyys pienenisi tätäkin enemmän. Roudan paksuuden vuosienvälistä vaihtelua ja sen muuttumista tulevaisuudessa pyrittiin myös arvioimaan. Leutoina talvina routa ohenee enemmän kuin normaaleina tai ankarina pakkastalvina. Päivittäistä sään vaihtelua simuloineen säägeneraattorin tuottamassa aineistoissa esiintyi kuitenkin liian vähän hyvin alhaisia ja hyvin korkeita lämpötiloja. Siksi näitten lämpötilatietojen pohjalta laskettu roudan paksuuskin ilmeisesti vaihtelee liian vähän vuodesta toiseen. Kelirikkotilanteita voi esiintyä myös kesken routakauden, jos useamman päivän suojasää ja samanaikainen runsas vesisade pääsevät sulattamaan maata. Tällaiset routakauden aikana sattuvat säätilat näyttävätkin yleistyvän lähivuosikymmeninä. Vuosisadan loppua kohti ne sen sijaan maan eteläosissa jälleen vähenevät, koska routakausi lyhenee oleellisesti. Tulevia vuosikymmeniä koskevien ilmastonmuutosennusteiden ohella routaa ja kelirikon esiintymistä on periaatteessa mahdollista ennustaa myös lähiaikojen sääennusteita hyödyntäen. Pitkät, viikkojen tai kuukausien mittaiset sääennusteet eivät tosin ole ainakaan vielä erityisen luotettavia, mutta myös lyhyemmistä ennusteista voisi olla hyötyä mm. tienpitoa suunniteltaessa.