Methods for Detecting Early Warnings of Critical Transitions in Time Series Illustrated Using Simulated Ecological Data

Many dynamical systems, including lakes, organisms, ocean circulation patterns, or financial markets, are now thought to have tipping points where critical transitions to a contrasting state can happen. Because critical transitions can occur unexpectedly and are difficult to manage, there is a need for methods that can be used to identify when a critical transition is approaching. Recent theory shows that we can identify the proximity of a system to a critical transition using a variety of so-called `early warning signals', and successful empirical examples suggest a potential for practical applicability. However, while the range of proposed methods for predicting critical transitions is rapidly expanding, opinions on their practical use differ widely, and there is no comparative study that tests the limitations of the different methods to identify approaching critical transitions using time-series data. Here, we summarize a range of currently available early warning methods and apply them to two simulated time series that are typical of systems undergoing a critical transition. In addition to a methodological guide, our work offers a practical toolbox that may be used in a wide range of fields to help detect early warning signals of critical transitions in time series data.

Antibodies against the extracellular domain of human Notch1 receptor reveal the critical role of epidermal-growth-factor-like repeats 25-26 in ligand binding and receptor activation

The Notch signalling pathway is implicated in a wide variety of cellular processes throughout metazoan development. Although the downstream mechanism of Notch signalling has been extensively studied, the details of its ligand-mediated receptor activation are not clearly understood. Although the role of Notch ELRs EGF (epidermal growth factor)-like-repeats] 11-12 in ligand binding is known, recent studies have suggested interactions within different ELRs of the Notch receptor whose significance remains to be understood. Here, we report critical inter-domain interactions between human Notch1 ELRs 21-30 and the ELRs 11-15 that are modulated by calcium. Surface plasmon resonance analysis revealed that the interaction between ELRs 21-30 and ELRs 11-15 is similar to 10-fold stronger than that between ELRs 11-15 and the ligands. Although there was no interaction between Notch 1 ELRs 21-30 and the ligands in vitro, addition of pre-clustered Jagged1Fc resulted in the dissociation of the preformed complex between ELRs 21-30 and 11-15, suggesting that inter-domain interactions compete for ligand binding. Furthermore, the antibodies against ELRs 21-30 inhibited ligand binding to the full-length Notch1 and subsequent receptor activation, with the antibodies against ELRs 25-26 being the most effective. These results suggest that the ELRs 25-26 represent a cryptic ligand-binding site which becomes exposed only upon the presence of the ligand. Thus, using specific antibodies against various domains of the Notch1 receptor, we demonstrate that, although ELRs 11-12 are the principal ligand-binding site, the ELRs 25-26 serve as a secondary binding site and play an important role in receptor activation.

InSt: an integrated steering framework for critical weather applications

Online remote visualization and steering of critical weather applications like cyclone tracking are essential for effective and timely analysis by geographically distributed climate science community. A steering framework for controlling the high-performance simulations of critical weather events needs to take into account both the steering inputs of the scientists and the criticality needs of the application including minimum progress rate of simulations and continuous visualization of significant events. In this work, we have developed an integrated user-driven and automated steering framework InSt for simulations, online remote visualization, and analysis for critical weather applications. InSt provides the user control over various application parameters including region of interest, resolution of simulation, and frequency of data for visualization. Unlike existing efforts, our framework considers both the steering inputs and the criticality of the application, namely, the minimum progress rate needed for the application, and various resource constraints including storage space and network bandwidth to decide the best possible parameter values for simulations and visualization.

The curvature of the liquid-vapor reduced pressure curve and its relation with the critical region

For most fluids, there exist a maximum and a minimum in the curvature of the reduced vapor pressure curve, p(r) = p(r)(T-r) (with p(r) = p/p(c) and T-r = T/T-c, p(c) and T-c being the pressure and temperature at the critical point). By analyzing National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) data on the liquid-vapor coexistence curve for 105 fluids, we find that the maximum occurs in the reduced temperature range 0.5 <= T-r <= 0.8 while the minimum occurs in the reduced temperature range 0.980 <= T-r <= 0.995. Vapor pressure equations for which d(2)p(r)/dT(r)(2) diverges at the critical point present a minimum in their curvature. Therefore, the point of minimum curvature can be used as a marker for the critical region. By using the well-known Ambrose-Walton (AW) vapor pressure equation we obtain the reduced temperatures of the maximum and minimum curvature in terms of the Pitzer acentric factor. The AW predictions are checked against those obtained from NIST data. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Critical investigation on hydrogen bonding by Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy in hydrogenated amorphous silicon thin films

Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) spectroscopic analysis has been carried out on the hydrogenated amorphous silicon (a-Si:H) thin films deposited by DC, pulsed DC (PDC) and RF sputtering process to get insight regarding the total hydrogen concentration (C-H) in the films, configuration of hydrogen bonding, density of the films (decided by the vacancy and void incorporation) and the microstructure factor (R*) which varies with the type of sputtering carried out at the same processing conditions. The hydrogen incorporation is found to be more in RF sputter deposited films as compared to PDC and DC sputter deposited films. All the films were broadly divided into two regions namely vacancy dominated and void dominated regions. At low hydrogen dilutions the films are vacancy dominated and at high hydrogen dilutions they are void dominated. This demarcation is at C-H = 23 at.% H for RF, C-H = 18 at.% H for PDC and C-H = 14 at.% H for DC sputter deposited films. The microstructure structure factor R* is found to be as low as 0.029 for DC sputter deposited films at low C-H. For a given C-H, DC sputter deposited films have low R* as compared to PDC and RF sputter deposited films. Signature of dihydride incorporation is found to be more in DC sputter deposited films at low C-H.

Multiwalled-carbon-nanotube-induced miscibility in near-critical PS/PVME blends: assessment through concentration fluctuations and segmental relaxation

The effects of multiwalled carbon nanotubes (MWNTs) on the concentration fluctuations, interfacial driven elasticity, phase morphology, and local segmental dynamics of chains for near-critical compositions of polystyrene/poly(vinyl to methyl ether) (PS/PVME) blends were systematically investigated using dynamic shear rheology and dielectric spectroscopy. The contribution of the correlation length (xi) of the concentration fluctuations to the evolving stresses was monitored in situ to probe the different stages of demixing in the blends. The classical upturn in the dynamic moduli was taken as the rheological demixing temperature (T-rheo), which was also observed to be in close agreement with those obtained using concentration fluctuation variance, <(delta phi)(2)>, versus temperature curves. Further, Fredrickson and Larson's approach involving the mean-field approximation and the double-reptation self-concentration (DRSC) model was employed to evaluate the spinodal decomposition temperature (T-s). Interestingly, the values of both T-rheo and T-s shifted upward in the blends in the presence of MWNTs, manifesting in molecular-level miscibility. These phenomenal changes were further observed to be a function of the concentration of MWNTs. The evolution of morphology as a function of temperature was studied using polarized optical microscopy (POM). It was observed that PVME, which evolved as an interconnected network during the early stages of demixing, coarsened into a matrix-droplet morphology in the late stages. The preferential wetting of PVME onto MWNTs as a result of physicochemical interactions retained the interconnected network of PVME for longer time scales, as supported by POM and atomic force microscopy (AFM) images. Microscopic heterogeneity in macroscopically miscible systems was studied by dielectric relaxation spectroscopy. The slowing of segmental relaxations in PVME was observed in the presence of both ``frozen'' PS and MWNTs interestingly at temperatures much below the calorimetric glass transition temperature (T-g). This phenomenon was observed to be local rather than global and was addressed by monitoring the evolution of the relaxation spectra near and above the demixing temperature.

Mechanism design for time critical and cost critical task execution via crowdsourcing

An exciting application of crowdsourcing is to use social networks in complex task execution. In this paper, we address the problem of a planner who needs to incentivize agents within a network in order to seek their help in executing an atomic task as well as in recruiting other agents to execute the task. We study this mechanism design problem under two natural resource optimization settings: (1) cost critical tasks, where the planner's goal is to minimize the total cost, and (2) time critical tasks, where the goal is to minimize the total time elapsed before the task is executed. We identify a set of desirable properties that should ideally be satisfied by a crowdsourcing mechanism. In particular, sybil-proofness and collapse-proofness are two complementary properties in our desiderata. We prove that no mechanism can satisfy all the desirable properties simultaneously. This leads us naturally to explore approximate versions of the critical properties. We focus our attention on approximate sybil-proofness and our exploration leads to a parametrized family of payment mechanisms which satisfy collapse-proofness. We characterize the approximate versions of the desirable properties in cost critical and time critical domain.

Threats and trade-fffs in resource critical crowdsourcing tasks over networks

In recent times, crowdsourcing over social networks has emerged as an active tool for complex task execution. In this paper, we address the problem faced by a planner to incen-tivize agents in the network to execute a task and also help in recruiting other agents for this purpose. We study this mecha-nism design problem under two natural resource optimization settings: (1) cost critical tasks, where the planner’s goal is to minimize the total cost, and (2) time critical tasks, where the goal is to minimize the total time elapsed before the task is executed. We define a set of fairness properties that should beideally satisfied by a crowdsourcing mechanism. We prove that no mechanism can satisfy all these properties simultane-ously. We relax some of these properties and define their ap-proximate counterparts. Under appropriate approximate fair-ness criteria, we obtain a non-trivial family of payment mech-anisms. Moreover, we provide precise characterizations of cost critical and time critical mechanisms.

Physics and chemistry of CdTe/CdS thin film heterojunction photovoltaic devices: fundamental and critical aspects

Among the armoury of photovoltaic materials, thin film heterojunction photovoltaics continue to be a promising candidate for solar energy conversion delivering a vast scope in terms of device design and fabrication. Their production does not require expensive semiconductor substrates and high temperature device processing, which allows reduced cost per unit area while maintaining reasonable efficiency. In this regard, superstrate CdTe/CdS solar cells are extensively investigated because of their suitable bandgap alignments, cost effective methods of production at large scales and stability against proton/electron irradiation. The conversion efficiencies in the range of 6-20% are achieved by structuring the device by varying the absorber/window layer thickness, junction activation/annealing steps, with more suitable front/back contacts, preparation techniques, doping with foreign ions, etc. This review focuses on fundamental and critical aspects like: (a) choice of CdS window layer and CdTe absorber layer; (b) drawbacks associated with the device including environmental problems, optical absorption losses and back contact barriers; (c) structural dynamics at CdS-CdTe interface; (d) influence of junction activation process by CdCl2 or HCF2Cl treatment; (e) interface and grain boundary passivation effects; (f) device degradation due to impurity diffusion and stress; (g) fabrication with suitable front and back contacts; (h) chemical processes occurring at various interfaces; (i) strategies and modifications developed to improve their efficiency. The complexity involved in understanding the multiple aspects of tuning the solar cell efficiency is reviewed in detail by considering the individual contribution from each component of the device. It is expected that this review article will enrich the materials aspects of CdTe/CdS devices for solar energy conversion and stimulate further innovative research interest on this intriguing topic.

Assessing the critical concentration of NH2 terminal groups on the surface of MWNTs towards chain scission of PC in PC/SAN blends: effect on dispersion, electrical conductivity and EMI shielding

The localization and dispersion quality of as received NH2 terminated multiwall carbon nanotubes (MWNT-I) and ethylene diamine (EDA) functionalized MWNTs in melt mixed blends of polycarbonate ( PC) and poly(styrene-co-acrylonitrile) (SAN) were assessed in this study using rheo-electrical and electromagnetic interference (EMI) shielding measurements. In order to improve the dispersion quality and also to selectively localize MWNTs in the PC phase of the blends, EDA was grafted onto MWNTs by two different strategies like diazonium reaction of the para-substituted benzene ring of MWNTs with EDA ( referred to as MWNT-II) and acylation of carboxyl functionalized MWNTs with thionyl chloride ( referred to as MWNT-III). By this approach we could systematically vary the concentration of NH2 functional groups on the surface of MWNTs at a fixed concentration (1 wt%) in PC/SAN blends. XPS was carried to evaluate the % concentration of N in different MWNTs and was observed to be highest for MWNT-III manifesting in a large surface coverage of EDA on the surface of MWNTs. Viscoelastic properties and melt electrical conductivities were measured to assess the dispersion quality of MWNTs using a rheo-electrical set-up both in the quiescent as well as under steady shear conditions. Rheological properties revealed chain scission of PC in the presence of MWNT-III which is due to specific interactions between EDA and PC leading to smaller PC grafts on the surface of MWNTs. The observed viscoelastic properties in the blends were further correlated with the phase morphologies under quiescent and annealed conditions. Electromagnetic interference (EMI) shielding effectiveness in X and K-u-band frequencies were measured to explore these composites for EMI shielding applications. Interestingly, MWNT-II showed the highest electrical conductivity and EMI shielding in the blends.

Critical cysteines in Akt1 regulate its activity and proteasomal degradation: implications for neurodegenerative diseases

Impaired Akt1 signaling is observed in neurodegenerative diseases, including Parkinson's disease (PD). In PD models oxidative modification of Akt1 leads to its dephosphorylation and consequent loss of its kinase activity. To explore the underlying mechanism we exposed Neuro2A cells to cadmium, a pan inhibitor of protein thiol disulfide oxidoreductases, including glutaredoxin 1 (Grx1), or downregulated Grx1, which led to dephosphorylation of Akt1, loss of its kinase activity, and also decreased Akt1 protein levels. Mutation of cysteines to serines at 296 and 310 in Akt1 did not affect its basal kinase activity but abolished cadmium- and Grx1 downregulation-induced reduction in Akt1 kinase activity, indicating their critical role in redox modulation of Akt1 function and turnover. Cadmium-induced decrease in phosphorylated Akt1 correlated with increased association of wild-type (WT) Akt1 with PP2A, which was absent in the C296-310S Akt1 mutant and was also abolished by N-acetylcysteine treatment. Further, increased proteasomal degradation of Akt1 by cadmium was not seen in the C296-310S Akt1 mutant, indicating that oxidation of cysteine residues facilitates degradation of WT Akt1. Moreover, preventing oxidative modification of Akt1 cysteines 296 and 310 by mutating them to serines increased the cell survival effects of Akt1. Thus, in neurodegenerative states such as PD, maintaining the thiol status of cysteines 296 and 310 in Akt1 would be critical for Akt1 kinase activity and for preventing its degradation by proteasomes. Preventing downregulation of Akt signaling not only has long-range consequences for cell survival but could also affect the multiple roles that Ala plays, including in the Akt-mTOR signaling cascade. (C) 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

SOME UNSTABLE CRITICAL METRICS FOR THE L-n/2-NORM OF THE CURVATURE TENSOR

We consider the Riemannian functional defined on the space of Riemannian metrics with unit volume on a closed smooth manifold M given by R-n/2(g) := integral(M) vertical bar R(g)vertical bar(n//2) dv(g) where R(g), dv(g) denote the Riemannian curvature and volume form corresponding to g. We show that there are locally symmetric spaces which are unstable critical points for this functional.

A critical examination of the paradox of strength and ductility in ultrafine-grained metals

The paradox of strength and ductility is now well established and denotes the difficulty of simultaneously achieving both high strength and high ductility. This paradox was critically examined using a cast Al-7% Si alloy processed by high-pressure torsion (HPT) for up to 10 turns at a temperature of either 298 or 445 K. This processing reduces the grain size to a minimum of similar to 0.4 mu m and also decreases the average size of the Si particles. The results show that samples processed to high numbers of HPT turns exhibit both high strength and high ductility when tested at relatively low strain rates and the strain rate sensitivity under these conditions is similar to 0.14 which suggests that flow occurs by some limited grain boundary sliding and crystallographic slip. The results are also displayed on the traditional diagram for strength and ductility and they demonstrate the potential for achieving high strength and high ductility by increasing the number of turns in HPT.