Fashions and fads in finance: contingent emulation and the political economy of sovereign wealth fund creation. IHS Political Science Series No. 131, July 2012

Sovereign wealth funds (SWFs), government-owned or managed investment vehicles, have proliferated at a remarkable rate over the past decade, even as political controversy has surrounded them. Why? The extant literature depicts the process of SWF creation as driven by functional imperatives associated with “excess” revenue and reserves accumulated from commodity booms and large current account surpluses. I argue that SWF creation also reflects in large part a process of contingent emulation in which first this policy has been constructed as appropriate for countries with given characteristics, and then when countries took on these characteristics, they followed their peers. Put simply, fashions and fads in finance matter for policy diffusion. I assess this argument using a new dataset on SWF creation that covers nearly 80 countries from 1984 to 2007. The results suggest peer-based contingent emulation has been a crucial factor shaping the decision of many countries to create a SWF, especially among fuel exporters. An earlier version of this paper was presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Washington, DC, 2 – 5 September 2010. The author would like to thank Eric Neumayer for his many suggestions and comments on previous versions of the manuscript. The author would also like to thank Zachary Elkins for sharing data. Finally, the author would like to acknowledge the research assistance of Natali Bulamacioglu and Christopher Gandrud.

Emergent Brazil and the Curse of the ‘Hen’s Flight’. CEPS Working Document No. 379, 27 February 2013

The ‘Emergent Brazil’ growth model is reaching its limits. Its main engines have been slowing significantly since the beginning of the global financial and economic crisis. Even its much-praised predictable macroeconomic policy has been eroded by political interference. Inflationary pressures are growing and GDP performance is anaemic. As ominous, Brazil cannot compensate for its domestic deficiencies with an export drive. Commodity exports are suffering with the world economic slow-down and the manufacturing industries’ competitiveness is in sharp decline. Brazil has put all its trade negotiation eggs into the South American and WTO baskets, and now its export market share is threatened by the Doha Round paralysis, the Latin American Alianza del Pacífico, and the US-led initiatives for a Trans-Pacific Partnership and a trade and investment agreement with the EU. Paradoxically, this alarming situation opens a window of opportunity. There is a mounting national consensus on the need to tackle head-on the country’s and its industries’ lack of competitiveness. That means finding a solution to the much-decried ‘Brazil Cost’ and stimulating private-sector investment. It also entails an aggressive trade-negotiating stance in order to secure better access to foreign markets and to foster more competition in the domestic one. The most promising near-term goal would be the conclusion of the EU–Mercosur trade talks. A scenario to overcome the paralysis of these negotiations could trail two parallel paths: bilateral EU–Brazil agreements on ‘anything but trade’ combined with a sequencing of the EU–Mercosur talks where each member of the South American bloc could adopt faster or slower liberalisation commitments and schedules.

Desempenho comparativo do BLAST e do mpiBLAST

Em Bioinformática são frequentes problemas cujo tratamento necessita de considerável poder de processamento/cálculo e/ou grande capacidade de armazenamento de dados e elevada largura de banda no acesso aos mesmos (de forma não comprometer a eficiência do seu processamento). Um exemplo deste tipo de problemas é a busca de regiões de similaridade em sequências de amino-ácidos de proteínas, ou em sequências de nucleótidos de DNA, por comparação com uma dada sequência fornecida (query sequence). Neste âmbito, a ferramenta computacional porventura mais conhecida e usada é o BLAST (Basic Local Alignment Search Tool) [1]. Donde, qualquer incremento no desempenho desta ferramenta tem impacto considerável (desde logo positivo) na atividade de quem a utiliza regularmente (seja para investigação, seja para fins comerciais). Precisamente, desde que o BLAST foi inicialmente introduzido, foram surgindo diversas versões, com desempenho melhorado, nomeadamente através da aplicação de técnicas de paralelização às várias fases do algoritmo (e. g., partição e distribuição das bases de dados a pesquisar, segmentação das queries, etc. ), capazes de tirar partido de diferentes ambientes computacionais de execução paralela, como: máquinas multi-core (BLAST+ 2), clusters de nós multi-core (mpiBLAST3J e, mais recentemente, co-processadores aceleradores como GPUs" ou FPGAs. É também possível usar as ferramentas da família BLAST através de um interface/sítio WEB5, que permite, de forma expedita, a pesquisa de uma variedade de bases de dados conhecidas (e em permanente atualização), com tempos de resposta suficientemente pequenos para a maioria dos utilizadores, graças aos recursos computacionais de elevado desempenho que sustentam o seu backend. Ainda assim, esta forma de utilização do BLAST poderá não ser a melhor opção em algumas situações, como por exemplo quando as bases de dados a pesquisar ainda não são de domínio público, ou, sendo-o, não estão disponíveis no referido sitio WEB. Adicionalmente, a utilização do referido sitio como ferramenta de trabalho regular pressupõe a sua disponibilidade permanente (dependente de terceiros) e uma largura de banda de qualidade suficiente, do lado do cliente, para uma interacção eficiente com o mesmo. Por estas razões, poderá ter interesse (ou ser mesmo necessário) implantar uma infra-estrutura BLAST local, capaz de albergar as bases de dados pertinentes e de suportar a sua pesquisa da forma mais eficiente possível, tudo isto levando em conta eventuais constrangimentos financeiros que limitam o tipo de hardware usado na implementação dessa infra-estrutura. Neste contexto, foi realizado um estudo comparativo de diversas versões do BLAST, numa infra-estrutura de computação paralela do IPB, baseada em componentes commodity: um cluster de 8 nós (virtuais, sob VMWare ESXi) de computação (com CPU Í7-4790K 4GHz, 32GB RAM e 128GB SSD) e um nó dotado de uma GPU (CPU Í7-2600 3.8GHz, 32GB RAM, 128 GB SSD, 1 TB HD, NVIDIA GTX 580). Assim, o foco principal incidiu na avaliação do desempenho do BLAST original e do mpiBLAST, dado que são fornecidos de base na distribuição Linux em que assenta o cluster [6]. Complementarmente, avaliou-se também o BLAST+ e o gpuBLAST no nó dotado de GPU. A avaliação contemplou diversas configurações de recursos, incluindo diferentes números de nós utilizados e diferentes plataformas de armazenamento das bases de dados (HD, SSD, NFS). As bases de dados pesquisadas correspondem a um subconjunto representativo das disponíveis no sitio WEB do BLAST, cobrindo uma variedade de dimensões (desde algumas dezenas de MBytes, até à centena de GBytes) e contendo quer sequências de amino-ácidos (env_nr e nr), quer de nucleótidos (drosohp. nt, env_nt, mito. nt, nt e patnt). Para as pesquisas foram 'usadas sequências arbitrárias de 568 letras em formato FASTA, e adoptadas as opções por omissão dos vários aplicativos BLAST. Salvo menção em contrário, os tempos de execução considerados nas comparações e no cálculo de speedups são relativos à primeira execução de uma pesquisa, não sendo assim beneficiados por qualquer efeito de cache; esta opção assume um cenário real em que não é habitual que uma mesma query seja executada várias vezes seguidas (embora possa ser re-executada, mais tarde). As principais conclusões do estudo comparativo realizado foram as seguintes: - e necessário acautelar, à priori, recursos de armazenamento com capacidade suficiente para albergar as bases de dados nas suas várias versões (originais/compactadas, descompactadas e formatadas); no nosso cenário de teste a coexistência de todas estas versões consumiu 600GBytes; - o tempo de preparação (formataçâo) das bases de dados para posterior pesquisa pode ser considerável; no nosso cenário experimental, a formatação das bases de dados mais pesadas (nr, env_nt e nt) demorou entre 30m a 40m (para o BLAST), e entre 45m a 55m (para o mpiBLAST); - embora economicamente mais onerosos, a utilização de discos de estado sólido, em alternativa a discos rígidos tradicionais, permite melhorar o tempo da formatação das bases de dados; no entanto, os benefícios registados (à volta de 9%) ficam bastante aquém do inicialmente esperado; - o tempo de execução do BLAST é fortemente penalizado quando as bases de dados são acedidas através da rede, via NFS; neste caso, nem sequer compensa usar vários cores; quando as bases de dados são locais e estão em SSD, o tempo de execução melhora bastante, em especial com a utilização de vários cores; neste caso, com 4 cores, o speedup chega a atingir 3.5 (sendo o ideal 4) para a pesquisa de BDs de proteínas, mas não passa de 1.8 para a pesquisa de BDs de nucleótidos; - o tempo de execução do mpiBLAST é muito prejudicado quando os fragmentos das bases de dados ainda não se encontram nos nós do cluster, tendo que ser distribuídos previamente à pesquisa propriamente dita; após a distribuição, a repetição das mesmas queries beneficia de speedups de 14 a 70; porém, como a mesma base de dados poderá ser usada para responder a diferentes queries, então não é necessário repetir a mesma query para amortizar o esforço de distribuição; - no cenário de teste, a utilização do mpiBLAST com 32+2 cores, face ao BLAST com 4 cores, traduz-se em speedups que, conforme a base de dados pesquisada (e previamente distribuída), variam entre 2 a 5, valores aquém do máximo teórico de 6.5 (34/4), mas ainda assim demonstradores de que, havendo essa possibilidade, compensa realizar as pesquisas em cluster; explorar vários cores) e com o gpuBLAST, realizada no nó com GPU (representativo de uma workstation típica), permite aferir qual a melhor opção no caso de não serem possíveis pesquisas em cluster; as observações realizadas indicam que não há diferenças significativas entre o BLAST e o BLAST+; adicionalmente, o desempenho do gpuBLAST foi sempre pior (aproximadmente em 50%) que o do BLAST e BLAST+, o que pode encontrar explicação na longevidade do modelo da GPU usada; - finalmente, a comparação da melhor opção no nosso cenário de teste, representada pelo uso do mpiBLAST, com o recurso a pesquisa online, no site do BLAST5, revela que o mpiBLAST apresenta um desempenho bastante competitivo com o BLAST online, chegando a ser claramente superior se se considerarem os tempos do mpiBLAST tirando partido de efeitos de cache; esta assunção acaba por se justa, Já que BLAST online também rentabiliza o mesmo tipo de efeitos; no entanto, com tempos de pequisa tão reduzidos (< 30s), só é defensável a utilização do mpiBLAST numa infra-estrutura local se o objetivo for a pesquisa de Bds não pesquisáveis via BLAS+ online.

Queratoconjuntivite vernal : case report

Trabalho Final do Curso de Mestrado Integrado em Medicina, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de Lisboa, 2014

Price formation in commodities markets. Financialisation and beyond. Report of an ECMI/CEPS Task Force

This report attempts to demystify the sphere of commodities markets worldwide by providing an in-depth examination of the major commodity groups, focusing on product characteristics, supply chains, pricing, liquidity, financial intermediation, industry players and the interplay between derivatives markets and the underlying physical goods. In so doing, the report contributes to the international debate with important information about the diverse market structures across commodities, including supply and demand elasticities, concentration of ownership, infrastructure organisation and layers of financial participation. While describing the endogenous factors, it also examines the increasing role of exogenous factors now impacting commodities. Finally, it assesses the drivers of the growth of derivatives markets and their impact on price formation. This report is a draft of the final version presented at a meeting at CEPS on 9 July 2013. A final version will be uploaded at the end of the summer when the book will be available in print.

Forerunners or scaremongers? Germany to abandon nuclear power. OSW Commentary No. 58, 2011-07-21

The German government’s final decision to abandon nuclear power as of 2022 has been expected for months. However, instead of calming the waters, providing solutions and answering the question ‘What next?’, it has only fanned the flames. Even the adoption of legal amendments enforcing the government’s decision by the German parliament (both the Bundestag and the Bundesrat) in late June and early July has not calmed the situation. It is more than apparent that these decisions have been made under emotional pressure: there was not enough time for accurate calculations to be made and consideration to be given to the consequences of Germany abandoning nuclear power. Chancellor Angela Merkel has so far been unable to fully convince the public that the ‘energy shift is a huge opportunity’ and that this process will be carried out on condition that ‘the supplies remain secure, the climate protected and the whole process economically efficient’1. German economic associations have warned against a politically motivated, ill-judged and irreversible abandonment of nuclear energy. They are anxious about an increase in electricity prices, the instability of supplies and environmental damage. The government believes, however, that green technologies will become a new driving force for the German economy and its main export commodity. Before that happens the industry will have to increase its use of electricity produced from fossil fuels, mainly natural gas imported from Russia. This may be exploited by Gazprom which will try to strengthen its position on the German market, and thus in the entire EU.

Defining an Institutional Framework for the Labour Market. Factor Markets Working Paper No. 24, February 2012

This paper describes a conceptual framework for the empirical analysis of farmers’ labour allocation decisions. The paper presents a brief overview of previous farm household labour allocation studies. Following this, the agricultural household model, developed by Singh, Squire and Strauss (1986), which has been frequently applied to the study of labour allocation, is described in more depth. The agricultural household model, the theoretical model to be used in this analysis, is based on the premise that farmers behave to maximise utility, which is a function of consumption and leisure. It follows that consumption is bound by a budget constraint and leisure by a time constraint. The theoretical model can then be used to explain how farmers decide to allocate their time between leisure, farm work and off-farm work within the constraints of a finite time endowment and a budget constraint. Work, both farm and off-farm, provides a return to labour which in turn relaxes the budget constraint allowing the farm household to consume more. The theoretical model can also be used to explore the impact on government policies on labour allocation. It follows that subsidies that decrease commodity prices, such as reductions in intervention prices, mean that farmers have to work more (either on or off the farm) to maintain income and consumption levels. On the other hand, income support subsidies that are not linked to output or labour, such as decoupled subsidies, are a source of non-labour income and as such allow farmers to work less while maintaining consumption levels, known as the wealth effect.

It’s not just Russia: Currency crisis in the Commonwealth of independent states. Bruegel Policy Contribution 2015/01, February 2015

The currency crisis that started in Russia and Ukraine during 2014 has spread to neighbouring countries in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). The collapse of the Russian ruble, expected recession in Russia, the stronger US dollar and lower commodity prices have negatively affected the entire region, with the consequence that the European Union's entire eastern neighbourhood faces serious economic, social and political challenges because of weaker currencies, higher inflation, decreasing export revenues and labour remittances, net capital outflows and stagnating or declining GDP. •The crisis requires a proper policy response from CIS governments, the International Monetary Fund and the EU. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict in Donbass requires rapid resolution, as the first step to return Russia to the mainstream of global economic and political cooperation. Beyond that, both Russia and Ukraine need deep structural and institutional reforms. The EU should deepen economic ties with those CIS countries that are interested in a closer relationship with Europe. The IMF should provide additional assistance to those CIS countries that have become victims of a new regional contagion, while preparing for the possibility of more emerging-market crises arising from slower growth, the stronger dollar and lower commodity prices.

The Emission Trading Scheme reform: will the Commission's proposal save the system? EPC Policy Brief, 29 May 2015

The European Union’s Emission Trading Scheme (ETS), proposed by the Commission in 2001, entered into force in 2005. It was the flagship instrument of an ambitious policy aiming to reduce the emission of greenhouse gasses in the EU by making emission allowances a freely tradable ‘financial commodity’. However, in recent years, the cracks in the system have begun to show as the price of these CO2 emission allowances has dropped. In this Policy Brief, Jørgen Knud Henningsen argues that the envisaged ETS reform may not be enough to address the system’s shortcomings, and that there should be a more open discussion about its potential if it is to contribute to the EU’s goal of a largely de-carbonised economy by 2050.

The systemic roots of Russia’s recession. Bruegel Policy Contribution ISSUE 2015/15, OCTOBER 2015

The Russian economy grew rapidly between 2000 and 2007, but growth decelerated after the 2008-09 global financial crisis, and since mid-2014 Russia has moved into recession. A number of short-term factors have caused recession: lower oil prices, the conflict with Ukraine, European Union and United States sanctions against Russia and Russian counter-sanctions. However Russia's negative output trends have deeper structural and institutional roots. They can be tracked back about a decade to when previous market-reform policies started to be reversed in favour of dirigisme, leading to further deterioration of the business and investment climate. • Russia must address its short-term problems, but in the medium-to-long term it must deal with its fundamental structural and institutional disadvantages: oil and commodity dependence and an unfriendly business and investment climate underpinned by poor governance. Compared to many other commodity producers, Russia is better placed to diversify its economy, mostly due to its excellent human capital. Ruble depreciation makes this task easier

Essays in macroeconometrics

The knowledge of the current state of the economy is crucial for policy makers, economists and analysts. However, a key economic variable, the gross domestic product (GDP), are typically colected on a quartely basis and released with substancial delays by the national statistical agencies. The first aim of this paper is to use a dynamic factor model to forecast the current russian GDP, using a set of timely monthly information. This approach can cope with the typical data flow problems of non-synchronous releases, mixed frequency and the curse of dimensionality. Given that Russian economy is largely dependent on the commodity market, our second motivation relates to study the effects of innovations in the russian macroeconomic fundamentals on commodity price predictability. We identify these innovations through a news index which summarizes deviations of offical data releases from the expectations generated by the DFM and perform a forecasting exercise comparing the performance of different models.

Foreign agricultural trade of the United States.

Mode of access: Internet.

Bulletin /

Title from cover.

Review of the U.S. Department of Agriculture's change in procedure concerning sales of commodities through the Export Credit Guarantee Program and the Intermediate Export Credit Guarantee Program [microform] : hearing before the Subcommittee on Tobacco and Peanuts of the Committee on Agriculture, House of Representatives, One Hundredth Congress, second session, October 6, 1988.

"Serial no. 100-113."

Census of business: 1935. Wholesale distribution..

Lithographed.