Time Varying Dimension Models

Time varying parameter (TVP) models have enjoyed an increasing popularity in empirical macroeconomics. However, TVP models are parameter-rich and risk over-fitting unless the dimension of the model is small. Motivated by this worry, this paper proposes several Time Varying dimension (TVD) models where the dimension of the model can change over time, allowing for the model to automatically choose a more parsimonious TVP representation, or to switch between different parsimonious representations. Our TVD models all fall in the category of dynamic mixture models. We discuss the properties of these models and present methods for Bayesian inference. An application involving US inflation forecasting illustrates and compares the different TVD models. We find our TVD approaches exhibit better forecasting performance than several standard benchmarks and shrink towards parsimonious specifications.

Hierarchical Shrinkage in Time-Varying Parameter Models

In this paper, we forecast EU-area inflation with many predictors using time-varying parameter models. The facts that time-varying parameter models are parameter-rich and the time span of our data is relatively short motivate a desire for shrinkage. In constant coefficient regression models, the Bayesian Lasso is gaining increasing popularity as an effective tool for achieving such shrinkage. In this paper, we develop econometric methods for using the Bayesian Lasso with time-varying parameter models. Our approach allows for the coefficient on each predictor to be: i) time varying, ii) constant over time or iii) shrunk to zero. The econometric methodology decides automatically which category each coefficient belongs in. Our empirical results indicate the benefits of such an approach.

Polynomial functors and polynomial monads

We study polynomial functors over locally cartesian closed categories. After setting up the basic theory, we show how polynomial functors assemble into a double category, in fact a framed bicategory. We show that the free monad on a polynomial endofunctor is polynomial. The relationship with operads and other related notions is explored.

Decentralization and the Gains from Monitoring

This paper analyzes the delegation of contracting capacity in a moral hazard environment with sequential production in a project which involves a principal and two agents. The agent in charge of the …nal production can obtain soft information about the other agent's effort choice by investing in monitoring. I investigate the circumstances under which it is optimal for the principal to use a centralized organization in which she designs the contracts with both agents or to use a decentralized organization in which she contracts only one agent, and delegates the power to contract the other agent. It is shown that in this setting a decentralized organization can be superior to a centralized organization. This is because the principal is better off under monitoring and the incentives for an agent to invest in monitoring can be higher in a decentralized organization. The circumstances under which this is true are related to the monitoring costs and the importance of each agent for production. The results explain the recent application of the design-build method in public procurement. Journal of Economic Literature Classi…cation Numbers: D23, D82, L14, L22. Keywords: Decentralization of Contracting, Monitoring, Moral Hazard.

Generating controlled image sets in cognitive neuroscience research.

The investigation of perceptual and cognitive functions with non-invasive brain imaging methods critically depends on the careful selection of stimuli for use in experiments. For example, it must be verified that any observed effects follow from the parameter of interest (e.g. semantic category) rather than other low-level physical features (e.g. luminance, or spectral properties). Otherwise, interpretation of results is confounded. Often, researchers circumvent this issue by including additional control conditions or tasks, both of which are flawed and also prolong experiments. Here, we present some new approaches for controlling classes of stimuli intended for use in cognitive neuroscience, however these methods can be readily extrapolated to other applications and stimulus modalities. Our approach is comprised of two levels. The first level aims at equalizing individual stimuli in terms of their mean luminance. Each data point in the stimulus is adjusted to a standardized value based on a standard value across the stimulus battery. The second level analyzes two populations of stimuli along their spectral properties (i.e. spatial frequency) using a dissimilarity metric that equals the root mean square of the distance between two populations of objects as a function of spatial frequency along x- and y-dimensions of the image. Randomized permutations are used to obtain a minimal value between the populations to minimize, in a completely data-driven manner, the spectral differences between image sets. While another paper in this issue applies these methods in the case of acoustic stimuli (Aeschlimann et al., Brain Topogr 2008), we illustrate this approach here in detail for complex visual stimuli.

Medical aspects of helicopter rescue missions involving winching of a physician

Introduction: Whereas the use of helicopters as a rapid means toreach victims and to bring them to a secure place is well-recognized,very few data are available about the value of winching physicians toprovide medical care for the victims directly on-site. We sought to studythe medical aspects of alpine helicopter rescue operations involving thewinching of an emergency physician to the victim.Methods: We retrospectively reviewed the medical reports of a singlehelicopter-based emergency medical service. Data from 1 January 2003to 31 December 2008 were analyzed. Cases with emergency callindicating that the victim was deceased were excluded. Data includedthe category (trauma or illnesses), and severity (NACA score) of theinjuries, along with the main medical procedures performed on site.Results: 9879 rescue missions were conducted between 1 January2003 and 31 December 2008. The 921 (9.3%) missions involvingwinching of the emergency physician were analysed. 840 (91%)patients suffered from trauma-related injuries. The cases of the 81 (9%)people presenting with medical emergencies were, when compared tothe trauma victims, significantly more severe according to the NACAindex (p <0.001). Overall, 246 (27%) patients had a severe injury orillness, namely, a potential or overt vital threat (NACA score between4-6, table 1). A total of 478 (52%) patients required administration ofmajor analgesics: fentanyl (443 patients; 48%), ketamine (42 patients;5%) or morphine (7 patients; 1%). The mean dose of fentanyl was 188micrograms (range 25-750, SD 127). Major medical interventions wereperformed 72 times on 39 (4%) patients (table 2).Conclusions: The severity of the patients' injuries or illnesses alongwith the high proportion of medical procedures performed directlyon-site validate emergency physician winching for advanced life supportprocedures and analgesia.

Robust discrimination between EEG responses to categories of environmental sounds in early coma.

Humans can recognize categories of environmental sounds, including vocalizations produced by humans and animals and the sounds of man-made objects. Most neuroimaging investigations of environmental sound discrimination have studied subjects while consciously perceiving and often explicitly recognizing the stimuli. Consequently, it remains unclear to what extent auditory object processing occurs independently of task demands and consciousness. Studies in animal models have shown that environmental sound discrimination at a neural level persists even in anesthetized preparations, whereas data from anesthetized humans has thus far provided null results. Here, we studied comatose patients as a model of environmental sound discrimination capacities during unconsciousness. We included 19 comatose patients treated with therapeutic hypothermia (TH) during the first 2 days of coma, while recording nineteen-channel electroencephalography (EEG). At the level of each individual patient, we applied a decoding algorithm to quantify the differential EEG responses to human vs. animal vocalizations as well as to sounds of living vocalizations vs. man-made objects. Discrimination between vocalization types was accurate in 11 patients and discrimination between sounds from living and man-made sources in 10 patients. At the group level, the results were significant only for the comparison between vocalization types. These results lay the groundwork for disentangling truly preferential activations in response to auditory categories, and the contribution of awareness to auditory category discrimination.

Prevalence, awareness, treatment and control of hypertension in a Swiss general population: the CoLaus Study

Objective: To assess the prevalence levels of awareness, treatment and control of hypertension and associated factors in Switzerland. Methods: Population-based cross-sectional study of 6,182 subjects (52.5% women) aged 35-75 years living in Lausanne, Switzerland. Hypertension was defined as blood pressure ≥140/90 mm Hg or current antihypertensive medication. Results: The overall prevalence of hypertension was 36% (95% CI: 35-38%). Among hypertensive participants, 63% were aware of having hypertension. Among aware hypertensives, 78% were treated, and among treated hypertensives 48% were controlled (BP <140/90 mmHg). In multivariate analysis, prevalence of hypertension was associated with older age, male gender, low educational level, high alcohol intake, awareness of diabetes, awareness of dyslipidaemia, obesity and parental history of myocardial infarction (MI). Awareness of hypertension was associated with older age, female gender, awareness of diabetes, awareness of dyslipidaemia, obesity and parental history of MI. Control was associated with younger age, higher educational level and no alcohol intake. Alone or in combination, sartans were the most often prescribed antihypertensive medication category (41%), followed by diuretics, beta-blockers, ACE inhibitors and calcium channel blockers. Only 31% of treated hypertensives were taking ≥2 antihypertensive medications. Conclusion: Although more than half of the participants with hypertension were aware of being hypertensive and more than three quarters of them received a pharmacological treatment, less than half of those treated were adequately controlled. Treated hypertensive subjects should be followed up more closely.

Improved virological outcome in White patients infected with HIV-1 non-B subtypes compared to subtype B.

BACKGROUND: Antiretroviral compounds have been predominantly studied in human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) subtype B, but only ~10% of infections worldwide are caused by this subtype. The analysis of the impact of different HIV subtypes on treatment outcome is important. METHODS: The effect of HIV-1 subtype B and non-B on the time to virological failure while taking combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) was analyzed. Other studies that have addressed this question were limited by the strong correlation between subtype and ethnicity. Our analysis was restricted to white patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study who started cART between 1996 and 2009. Cox regression models were performed; adjusted for age, sex, transmission category, first cART, baseline CD4 cell counts, and HIV RNA levels; and stratified for previous mono/dual nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor treatment. RESULTS: Included in our study were 4729 patients infected with subtype B and 539 with non-B subtypes. The most prevalent non-B subtypes were CRF02_AG (23.8%), A (23.4%), C (12.8%), and CRF01_AE (12.6%). The incidence of virological failure was higher in patients with subtype B (4.3 failures/100 person-years; 95% confidence interval [CI], 4.0-4.5]) compared with non-B (1.8 failures/100 person-years; 95% CI, 1.4-2.4). Cox regression models confirmed that patients infected with non-B subtypes had a lower risk of virological failure than those infected with subtype B (univariable hazard ratio [HR], 0.39 [95% CI, .30-.52; P < .001]; multivariable HR, 0.68 [95% CI, .51-.91; P = .009]). In particular, subtypes A and CRF02_AG revealed improved outcomes (multivariable HR, 0.54 [95% CI, .29-.98] and 0.39 [95% CI, .19-.79], respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Improved virological outcomes among patients infected with non-B subtypes invalidate concerns that these individuals are at a disadvantage because drugs have been designed primarily for subtype B infections.

Gambling among youths in Switzerland and its association with other addictive behaviours: a population-based study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the prevalence of problem gambling in a population of youths in Switzerland and to determine its association with other potentially addictive behaviours. METHODS: Cross-sectional survey including 1,102 participants in the first and second year of post-compulsory education, reporting gambling, socio-demographics, internet use and substance use. For three categories of gambling (nongambler; nonproblem gambler and at-risk/problem gambler). socio-demographic and addiction data were compared using a bivariate analysis. All significant variables were included in a multinominal logistic regression using nongamblers as the reference category. RESULTS: The prevalence of gamblers was 37.48% (n = 413), with nonproblem gamblers being 31.94% (n = 352) and at-risk/problem gamblers 5.54% (n = 61). At the bivariate level, severity of gambling increased among adults (over 18 years) and among males, vocational students, participants not living with both parents and youths having a low socio-economic status. Gambling was also associated to the four addictive behaviours studied. At the multivariate level, risk of nonproblem gambling was increased in males, older youths, vocational students, participants of Swiss origin and alcohol misusers. Risk of at-risk/problem gambling was higher for males, older youths, alcohol misusers, participants not living with both parents and problem internet users. CONCLUSIONS: One-third of youths in our sample had gambled in the previous year and gambling is associated with other addictive behaviours. Clinicians should screen their adolescent patients for gambling habits, especially if other addictive behaviours are present. Additionally, gambling should be included in prevention campaigns together with other addictive behaviours.

Monads in double categories

We extend the basic concepts of Street's formal theory of monads from the setting of 2-categories to that of double categories. In particular, we introduce the double category Mnd(C) of monads in a double category C and dene what it means for a double category to admit the construction of free monads. Our main theorem shows that, under some mild conditions, a double category that is a framed bicategory admits the construction of free monads if its horizontal 2-category does. We apply this result to obtain double adjunctions which extend the adjunction between graphs and categories and the adjunction between polynomial endofunctors and polynomial monads.

Bigh3 is upregulated in regenerating zebrafish fin.

Zebrafish is a good model for studying regeneration because of the rapidity with which it occurs. Better understanding of this process may lead in the future to improvement of the regenerating capacity of humans. Signaling factors are the second largest category of genes, regulated during regeneration after the regulators of wound healing. Major developmental signaling pathways play a role in this multistep process, such as Bmp, Fgf, Notch, retinoic acid, Shh, and Wnt. In the present study, we focus on TGF-β-induced genes, bigh3 and bambia. Bigh3 encodes keratoepithelin, a protein first identified as an extracellular matrix protein reported to play a role in cell adhesion, as well as in cornea formation and osteogenesis. The expression of bigh3 in zebrafish fins has previously been reported. Here we demonstrate that tgf-b1 and tgf-b3 mRNA reacted with delay, first showing no regulation at 3âeuro0/00dpa, followed by upregulation at 4 and 5âeuro0/00dpa. Tgf-b1, tgf-2, and tgf-brII mRNA were back to normal levels at 10âeuro0/00dpa. Only tgf-b3 mRNA was still upregulated at that time. Bigh3 mRNA followed the upregulation of tgf-b1, while bambia mRNA behaved similarly to tgf-b2 mRNA. We show that upregulation of bigh3 and bambia mRNA correlated with the process of fin regeneration and regulation of TGF-b signaling, suggesting a new role for these proteins.

Rotaviruses as a cause of nosocomial, infantile diarrhoea in Northern Brazil: pilot study

Faecal samples were obtained from 190 children, aged 0 to 5 years, admitted to a public hospital in Belém, Pará, Brazil. These patients were placed in a pediatric ward with 40 beds distributed in six rooms. Case were classified into three groups: (a) nosocomial: children who developed gastroenteritis 72 hr or later after admission; (b) community-acquired: patients admitted either with diarrhoea or who had diarrhoea within 72 hr following admission; (c) non-diarrhoeic: those children who had no diarrhoea three days before and three days after collection of formed faecal sample. Specimens were routinely processed for the presence of rotaviruses, bacteria and parasites. Rotaviruses were detected through enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and subsequently serotyped/electrophoretyped. Rotaviruses were the most prevalent enteropathogens among nosocomial cases, accounting for 39 % (9/23) of diarrhoeal episodes; on the other hand, rotaviruses ocurred in 8.3 % (11/133) and 9 % (3/34) of community-acquired and non-diarrhoeic categories, respectively. Mixed infections involving rotavirus and Giardia intestinalis and rotavirus plus G. intestinalis and Entamoeba histolytica were detected in frequencies of 8.6 and 4.3 %, respectively, in the nosocomial group. The absence of bacterial pathogens in this category, and the unusual low prevalence of these agents in the other two groups may reflect the early and routine administration of antibiotics following admission to this hospital. Rotavirus serotype 2 prevailed over the other types, accounting for 77.8 % of isolates from nosocomial diarrhoeal episodes. In addition, at least five different genomic profiles could be observed, of which one displayed an unusual five-segment first RNA cluster. Dehydration was recorded in all cases of hospital-acquired, rotavirus-associated diarrhoea, whereas in only 57 % of nosocomial cases of other aetiology. It was also noted that nosocomial, rotavirus-associated diarrhoeal episodes occur earlier (7 days), following admission, if compared with those hospital-acquired cases of other aetiology (14 days).

Colocaciones léxicas en dicconarios monolingües generales del español

El objetivo de la presente investigación es analizar el tratamiento que algunos de los diccionarios generales monolingües del español aparecidos en los últimos diez años han dado al fenómeno de las colocaciones léxicas, a saber, aquellas combinaciones de palabras que, desde el punto de vista de la norma, presentan ciertas restricciones combinatorias, esencialmente de carácter semántico, impuestas por el uso (Corpas: 1996). Los repertorios objeto de análisis han sido: el "Diccionario Salamanca de la lengua española", dirigido por Juan Gutiérrez (1996); el "Diccionario del español actual", de Manuel Seco, Olimpia Andrés y Gabino Ramos (1999); la vigésima segunda edición del diccionario de la RAE (2001); y el "Gran diccionario de uso del español actual. Basado en el corpus Cumbre", dirigido por Aquilino Sánchez (2001). Nuestro estudio se ha fundamentado en un corpus de 52 colocaciones léxicas confeccionado a partir del análisis de las subentradas contenidas en la letra "b" de cada uno de los diccionarios seleccionados. Posteriormente, hemos examinado las entradas correspondientes a cada uno de los elementos que constituyen la colocación (base y colocativo) con el fin de observar si los diccionarios estudiados dan cuenta de estas mismas combinaciones en otras partes del artículo lexicográfico, como son las definiciones o los ejemplos. A la hora de analizar la información lexicográfica hemos centrado nuestra atención en cuatro aspectos: a) la información contenida en las páginas preliminares de cada una de las obras; b) la ubicación de las colocaciones en el artículo lexicográfico; c) la asignación de la colocación a un artículo determinado; y d) la marcación gramatical.

A model structure for coloured operads in symmetric spectra

We describe a model structure for coloured operads with values in the category of symmetric spectra (with the positive model structure), in which fibrations and weak equivalences are defined at the level of the underlying collections. This allows us to treat R-module spectra (where R is a cofibrant ring spectrum) as algebras over a cofibrant spectrum-valued operad with R as its first term. Using this model structure, we give sufficient conditions for homotopical localizations in the category of symmetric spectra to preserve module structures.