Three-phase harmonic distortion state estimation algorithm based on evolutionary strategies

This paper presents a new methodology to estimate unbalanced harmonic distortions in a power system, based on measurements of a limited number of given sites. The algorithm utilizes evolutionary strategies (ES), a development branch of evolutionary algorithms. The problem solving algorithm herein proposed makes use of data from various power quality meters, which can either be synchronized by high technology GPS devices or by using information from a fundamental frequency load flow, what makes the overall power quality monitoring system much less costly. The ES based harmonic estimation model is applied to a 14 bus network to compare its performance to a conventional Monte Carlo approach. It is also applied to a 50 bus subtransmission network in order to compare the three-phase and single-phase approaches as well as the robustness of the proposed method. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reconfiguration of distribution networks to minimize loss and disruption costs using genetic algorithms

In this paper a computational implementation of an evolutionary algorithm (EA) is shown in order to tackle the problem of reconfiguring radial distribution systems. The developed module considers power quality indices such as long duration interruptions and customer process disruptions due to voltage sags, by using the Monte Carlo simulation method. Power quality costs are modeled into the mathematical problem formulation, which are added to the cost of network losses. As for the EA codification proposed, a decimal representation is used. The EA operators, namely selection, recombination and mutation, which are considered for the reconfiguration algorithm, are herein analyzed. A number of selection procedures are analyzed, namely tournament, elitism and a mixed technique using both elitism and tournament. The recombination operator was developed by considering a chromosome structure representation that maps the network branches and system radiality, and another structure that takes into account the network topology and feasibility of network operation to exchange genetic material. The topologies regarding the initial population are randomly produced so as radial configurations are produced through the Prim and Kruskal algorithms that rapidly build minimum spanning trees. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fuzzy risk index for power transformer failures due to external short-circuits

A novel methodology to assess the risk of power transformer failures caused by external faults, such as short-circuit, taking the paper insulation condition into account, is presented. The risk index is obtained by contrasting the insulation paper condition with the probability that the transformer withstands the short-circuit current flowing along the winding during an external fault. In order to assess the risk, this probability and the value of the degree of polymerization of the insulating paper are regarded as inputs of a type-2 fuzzy logic system (T2-FLS), which computes the fuzzy risk level. A Monte Carlo simulation has been used to find the survival function of the currents flowing through the transformer winding during a single-phase or a three-phase short-circuit. The Roy Billinton Test System and a real power system have been used to test the results. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Metodologia para análise da confiabilidade estrutural de escavações em rocha.

A methodology for rock-excavation structural-reliability analysis that uses Distinct Element Method numerical models is presented. The methodology solves the problem of the conventional numerical models that supply only punctual results and use fixed input parameters, without considering its statistical errors. The analysis of rock-excavation stability must consider uncertainties from geological variability, from uncertainty in the choice of mechanical behaviour hypothesis, and from uncertainties in parameters adopted in numerical model construction. These uncertainties can be analyzed in simple deterministic models, but a new methodology was developed for numerical models with results of several natures. The methodology is based on Monte Carlo simulations and uses principles of Paraconsistent Logic. It will be presented in the analysis of a final slope of a large-dimensioned surface mine.

S/MIMO MC-CDMA Heuristic Multiuser Detectors Based on Single-Objective Optimization

This paper analyzes the complexity-performance trade-off of several heuristic near-optimum multiuser detection (MuD) approaches applied to the uplink of synchronous single/multiple-input multiple-output multicarrier code division multiple access (S/MIMO MC-CDMA) systems. Genetic algorithm (GA), short term tabu search (STTS) and reactive tabu search (RTS), simulated annealing (SA), particle swarm optimization (PSO), and 1-opt local search (1-LS) heuristic multiuser detection algorithms (Heur-MuDs) are analyzed in details, using a single-objective antenna-diversity-aided optimization approach. Monte- Carlo simulations show that, after convergence, the performances reached by all near-optimum Heur-MuDs are similar. However, the computational complexities may differ substantially, depending on the system operation conditions. Their complexities are carefully analyzed in order to obtain a general complexity-performance framework comparison and to show that unitary Hamming distance search MuD (uH-ds) approaches (1-LS, SA, RTS and STTS) reach the best convergence rates, and among them, the 1-LS-MuD provides the best trade-off between implementation complexity and bit error rate (BER) performance.

Pitfalls driven by the sole use of local updates in dynamical

The recent claim that the exit probability (EP) of a slightly modified version of the Sznadj model is a continuous function of the initial magnetization is questioned. This result has been obtained analytically and confirmed by Monte Carlo simulations, simultaneously and independently by two different groups (EPL, 82 (2008) 18006; 18007). It stands at odds with an earlier result which yielded a step function for the EP (Europhys. Lett., 70 (2005) 705). The dispute is investigated by proving that the continuous shape of the EP is a direct outcome of a mean-field treatment for the analytical result. As such, it is most likely to be caused by finite-size effects in the simulations. The improbable alternative would be a signature of the irrelevance of fluctuations in this system. Indeed, evidence is provided in support of the stepwise shape as going beyond the mean-field level. These findings yield new insight in the physics of one-dimensional systems with respect to the validity of a true equilibrium state when using solely local update rules. The suitability and the significance to perform numerical simulations in those cases is discussed. To conclude, a great deal of caution is required when applying updates rules to describe any system especially social systems. Copyright (C) EPLA, 2011

Double generalized linear model for tissue culture proportion data: a Bayesian perspective

Joint generalized linear models and double generalized linear models (DGLMs) were designed to model outcomes for which the variability can be explained using factors and/or covariates. When such factors operate, the usual normal regression models, which inherently exhibit constant variance, will under-represent variation in the data and hence may lead to erroneous inferences. For count and proportion data, such noise factors can generate a so-called overdispersion effect, and the use of binomial and Poisson models underestimates the variability and, consequently, incorrectly indicate significant effects. In this manuscript, we propose a DGLM from a Bayesian perspective, focusing on the case of proportion data, where the overdispersion can be modeled using a random effect that depends on some noise factors. The posterior joint density function was sampled using Monte Carlo Markov Chain algorithms, allowing inferences over the model parameters. An application to a data set on apple tissue culture is presented, for which it is shown that the Bayesian approach is quite feasible, even when limited prior information is available, thereby generating valuable insight for the researcher about its experimental results.

Assignment of the absolute configuration at the sulfur atom of thioridazine metabolites by the analysis of their chiroptical properties: The case of thioridazine 2-sulfoxide

Thioridazine (THD) is a commonly prescribed phenotiazine neuroleptic drug, which is extensively biotransformed in the organism producing as main metabolites sulfoxides and a sulfone by sulfur oxidation Significant differences have been observed in the activity of the THD enantiomers as well as for its main metabolites, and enantioselectivity phenomena have been proved in the metabolic pathway. Here the assignment of the absolute configuration at the sulfur atom of enantiomeric THD-2-sulfoxide (THD-2-SO) has been carried out by circular dichroism (CD) spectroscopy The stereoisomers were separated by HPLC on Chiralpak AS column, recording the CD spectra for the two collected enantiomeric fractions The theoretical electronic CD spectrum has been obtained by the TDDFT/B3LYP/6-31G*. as Boltzmann averaging of the contributions calculated for the most stable conformations of the drug The comparison of the simulated and experimental spectra allowed the absolute configuration at the sulfur atom of the four THD-2-SO stereoisomers to be assigned The developed method should be useful for a reliable correlation between stereochemistry and activity and/or toxicity

Distinct conformational properties determined by implicit and explicit representation of protein-solvent interactions. An analytical and computer simulation study

In the protein folding problem, solvent-mediated forces are commonly represented by intra-chain pairwise contact energy. Although this approximation has proven to be useful in several circumstances, it is limited in some other aspects of the problem. Here we show that it is possible to achieve two models to represent the chain-solvent system. one of them with implicit and other with explicit solvent, such that both reproduce the same thermodynamic results. Firstly, lattice models treated by analytical methods, were used to show that the implicit and explicitly representation of solvent effects can be energetically equivalent only if local solvent properties are time and spatially invariant. Following, applying the same reasoning Used for the lattice models, two inter-consistent Monte Carlo off-lattice models for implicit and explicit solvent are constructed, being that now in the latter the solvent properties are allowed to fluctuate. Then, it is shown that the chain configurational evolution as well as the globule equilibrium conformation are significantly distinct for implicit and explicit solvent systems. Actually, strongly contrasting with the implicit solvent version, the explicit solvent model predicts: (i) a malleable globule, in agreement with the estimated large protein-volume fluctuations; (ii) thermal conformational stability, resembling the conformational hear resistance of globular proteins, in which radii of gyration are practically insensitive to thermal effects over a relatively wide range of temperatures; and (iii) smaller radii of gyration at higher temperatures, indicating that the chain conformational entropy in the unfolded state is significantly smaller than that estimated from random coil configurations. Finally, we comment on the meaning of these results with respect to the understanding of the folding process. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A valuation of patients` willingness-to-pay for insulin delivery in diabetes

Objectives: The aim of this study was to determine the insulin-delivery system and the attributes of insulin therapy that best meet patients` preferences, and to estimate patients` willingness-to-pay (WTP) for them. Methods: This was a cross-sectional discrete choice experiment (DCE) study involving 378 Canadian patients with type 1 or type 2 diabetes. Patients were asked to choose between two hypothetical insulin treatment options made up of different combinations of the attribute levels. Regression coefficients derived using conditional logit models were used to calculate patients` WTP. Stratification of the sample was performed to evaluate WTP by predefined subgroups. Results: A total of 274 patients successfully completed the survey. Overall, patients were willing to pay the most for better blood glucose control followed by weight gain. Surprisingly, route of insulin administration was the least important attribute overall. Segmented models indicated that insulin naive diabetics were willing to pay significantly more for both oral and inhaled short-acting insulin compared with insulin users. Surprisingly, type 1 diabetics were willing to pay $C11.53 for subcutaneous short-acting insulin, while type 2 diabetics were willing to pay $C47.23 to avoid subcutaneous short-acting insulin (p < .05). These findings support the hypothesis of a psychological barrier to initiating insulin therapy, but once that this barrier has been overcome, they accommodate and accept injectable therapy as a treatment option. Conclusions: By understanding and addressing patients` preferences for insulin therapy, diabetes educators can use this information to find an optimal treatment approach for each individual patient, which may ultimately lead to improved control, through improved compliance, and better diabetes outcomes.

Deconstructing Tick Saliva NON-PROTEIN MOLECULES WITH POTENT IMMUNOMODULATORY PROPERTIES

Dendritic cells (DCs) are powerful initiators of innate and adaptive immune responses. Ticks are blood-sucking ectoparasite arthropods that suppress host immunity by secreting immunomodulatory molecules in their saliva. Here, compounds present in Rhipicephalus sanguineus tick saliva with immunomodulatory effects on DC differentiation, cytokine production, and costimulatory molecule expression were identified. R. sanguineus tick saliva inhibited IL-12p40 and TNF-alpha while potentiating IL-10 cytokine production by bone marrow-derived DCs stimulated by Toll-like receptor-2, -4, and -9 agonists. To identify the molecules responsible for these effects, we fractionated the saliva through microcon filtration and reversed-phase HPLC and tested each fraction for DC maturation. Fractions with proven effects were analyzed by micro-HPLC tandem mass spectrometry or competition ELISA. Thus, we identified for the first time in tick saliva the purine nucleoside adenosine (concentration of similar to 110pmol/mu l) as a potent anti-inflammatory salivary inhibitor of DC cytokine production. We also found prostaglandin E(2) (PGE(2) similar to 100 nM) with comparable effects in modulating cytokine production by DCs. Both Ado and PGE(2) inhibited cytokine production by inducing cAMP-PKA signaling in DCs. Additionally, both Ado and PGE(2) were able to inhibit expression of CD40 in mature DCs. Finally, flow cytometry analysis revealed that PGE(2), but not Ado, is the differentiation inhibitor of bone marrow-derived DCs. The presence of non-protein molecules adenosine and PGE(2) in tick saliva indicates an important evolutionary mechanism used by ticks to subvert host immune cells and allow them to successfully complete their blood meal and life cycle.

Aerodynamic Drag Reduction for Satellites in Low Earth Orbit

Stalker (AIAA Paper 87-0403) has suggested that, by ejecting molecules directly upstream from the entire face of a satellite, it is possible to reduce the drag on a satellite in low-Earth orbit and hence maintain orbit with a total fuel mass (for forward ejection and conventional reaction rockets) less than the typical mass requirements of conventional rockets. An analytical analysis is presented here, as well as Monte Carlo simulations. These indicate that to reduce the overall drag on the satellite significantly, collisions between the freestream and ejected molecules must occur at least two satellite diameters upstream. This can be achieved if the molecules are ejected far upstream from the satellite’s surface through a sting that projects forward from the satellite. Using some estimates of what would be feasible sting arrangements, we find that the drag on the satellite can be reduced to such an extent that the satellite’s orbit can be maintained with a total fuel mass of less than 60% of that required for reaction rockets alone. Upstream ejection is effective in reducing the drag for freestream Knudsen numbers less than approximately 250, but not otherwise.

A hybrid probabilistic criterion for market-based transmission expansion planning

Market-based transmission expansion planning gives information to investors on where is the most cost efficient place to invest and brings benefits to those who invest in this grid. However, both market issue and power system adequacy problems are system planers’ concern. In this paper, a hybrid probabilistic criterion of Expected Economical Loss (EEL) is proposed as an index to evaluate the systems’ overall expected economical losses during system operation in a competitive market. It stands on both investors’ and planner’s point of view and will further improves the traditional reliability cost. By applying EEL, it is possible for system planners to obtain a clear idea regarding the transmission network’s bottleneck and the amount of losses arises from this weak point. Sequentially, it enables planners to assess the worth of providing reliable services. Also, the EEL will contain valuable information for moneymen to undertake their investment. This index could truly reflect the random behaviors of power systems and uncertainties from electricity market. The performance of the EEL index is enhanced by applying Normalized Coefficient of Probability (NCP), so it can be utilized in large real power systems. A numerical example is carried out on IEEE Reliability Test System (RTS), which will show how the EEL can predict the current system bottleneck under future operational conditions and how to use EEL as one of planning objectives to determine future optimal plans. A well-known simulation method, Monte Carlo simulation, is employed to achieve the probabilistic characteristic of electricity market and Genetic Algorithms (GAs) is used as a multi-objective optimization tool.

Sampling phylogenetic tree space with the generalized Gibbs sampler

The generalized Gibbs sampler (GGS) is a recently developed Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique that enables Gibbs-like sampling of state spaces that lack a convenient representation in terms of a fixed coordinate system. This paper describes a new sampler, called the tree sampler, which uses the GGS to sample from a state space consisting of phylogenetic trees. The tree sampler is useful for a wide range of phylogenetic applications, including Bayesian, maximum likelihood, and maximum parsimony methods. A fast new algorithm to search for a maximum parsimony phylogeny is presented, using the tree sampler in the context of simulated annealing. The mathematics underlying the algorithm is explained and its time complexity is analyzed. The method is tested on two large data sets consisting of 123 sequences and 500 sequences, respectively. The new algorithm is shown to compare very favorably in terms of speed and accuracy to the program DNAPARS from the PHYLIP package.

Experimental Analysis of Froude Number Effect on Air Entrainment in the Hydraulic Jump

A hydraulic jump is characterized by strong energy dissipation and mixing, large-scale turbulence, air entrainment, waves and spray. Despite recent pertinent studies, the interaction between air bubbles diffusion and momentum transfer is not completely understood. The objective of this paper is to present experimental results from new measurements performed in rectangular horizontal flume with partially-developed inflow conditions. The vertical distributions of void fraction and air bubbles count rate were recorded for inflow Froude number Fr1 in the range from 5.2 to 14.3. Rapid detrainment process was observed near the jump toe, whereas the structure of the air diffusion layer was clearly observed over longer distances. These new data were compared with previous data generally collected at lower Froude numbers. The comparison demonstrated that, at a fixed distance from the jump toe, the maximum void fraction Cmax increases with the increasing Fr1. The vertical locations of the maximum void fraction and bubble count rate were consistent with previous studies. Finally, an empirical correlation between the upper boundary of the air diffusion layer and the distance from the impingement point was provided.