Inter-decadal changes of thermodynamic stability variables in a transatlantic section along 7.5º N

Máster en Oceanografía

Clustering of variables around latent components: an application in consumer science

The present work proposes a method based on CLV (Clustering around Latent Variables) for identifying groups of consumers in L-shape data. This kind of datastructure is very common in consumer studies where a panel of consumers is asked to assess the global liking of a certain number of products and then, preference scores are arranged in a two-way table Y. External information on both products (physicalchemical description or sensory attributes) and consumers (socio-demographic background, purchase behaviours or consumption habits) may be available in a row descriptor matrix X and in a column descriptor matrix Z respectively. The aim of this method is to automatically provide a consumer segmentation where all the three matrices play an active role in the classification, getting homogeneous groups from all points of view: preference, products and consumer characteristics. The proposed clustering method is illustrated on data from preference studies on food products: juices based on berry fruits and traditional cheeses from Trentino. The hedonic ratings given by the consumer panel on the products under study were explained with respect to the product chemical compounds, sensory evaluation and consumer socio-demographic information, purchase behaviour and consumption habits.

Phytoplankton Response to Environmental Variables and Organic Pollutants. Laboratory Cultures and Numerical Simulations Experiments

Herbicides are becoming emergent contaminants in Italian surface, coastal and ground waters, due to their intensive use in agriculture. In marine environments herbicides have adverse effects on non-target organisms, as primary producers, resulting in oxygen depletion and decreased primary productivity. Alterations of species composition in algal communities can also occur due to the different sensitivity among the species. In the present thesis the effects of herbicides, widely used in the Northern Adriatic Sea, on different algal species were studied. The main goal of this work was to study the influence of temperature on algal growth in the presence of the triazinic herbicide terbuthylazine (TBA), and the cellular responses adopted to counteract the toxic effects of the pollutant (Chapter 1 and 2). The development of simulation models to be applied in environmental management are needed to organize and track information in a way that would not be possible otherwise and simulate an ecological prospective. The data collected from laboratory experiments were used to simulate algal responses to the TBA exposure at increasing temperature conditions (Chapter 3). Part of the thesis was conducted in foreign countries. The work presented in Chapter 4 was focused on the effect of high light on growth, toxicity and mixotrophy of the ichtyotoxic species Prymnesium parvum. In addition, a mesocosm experiment was conducted in order to study the synergic effect of the pollutant emamectin benzoate with other anthropogenic stressors, such as oil pollution and induced phytoplankton blooms (Chapter 5).

In defence of modeling simultaneity for a correct approximation of cultural aspects: implications for food consumers studies with latent variables

Dealing with latent constructs (loaded by reflective and congeneric measures) cross-culturally compared means studying how these unobserved variables vary, and/or covary each other, after controlling for possibly disturbing cultural forces. This yields to the so-called ‘measurement invariance’ matter that refers to the extent to which data collected by the same multi-item measurement instrument (i.e., self-reported questionnaire of items underlying common latent constructs) are comparable across different cultural environments. As a matter of fact, it would be unthinkable exploring latent variables heterogeneity (e.g., latent means; latent levels of deviations from the means (i.e., latent variances), latent levels of shared variation from the respective means (i.e., latent covariances), levels of magnitude of structural path coefficients with regard to causal relations among latent variables) across different populations without controlling for cultural bias in the underlying measures. Furthermore, it would be unrealistic to assess this latter correction without using a framework that is able to take into account all these potential cultural biases across populations simultaneously. Since the real world ‘acts’ in a simultaneous way as well. As a consequence, I, as researcher, may want to control for cultural forces hypothesizing they are all acting at the same time throughout groups of comparison and therefore examining if they are inflating or suppressing my new estimations with hierarchical nested constraints on the original estimated parameters. Multi Sample Structural Equation Modeling-based Confirmatory Factor Analysis (MS-SEM-based CFA) still represents a dominant and flexible statistical framework to work out this potential cultural bias in a simultaneous way. With this dissertation I wanted to make an attempt to introduce new viewpoints on measurement invariance handled under covariance-based SEM framework by means of a consumer behavior modeling application on functional food choices.

A journey through the capital structure of the banking sector: Empirical evidence for Europe from 2008 to 2012

Systemic risk is the protagonist of the recent financial crisis. This thesis proposes a definition and a propagation mechanism for systemic risk. Risk management has a direct linkage with capital management, when addressing the question that the risk handled by a financial institution is compatible with the amount of equity available. This thesis proposes a risk management of liquid market variables, which compose the assets of a bank, based on the statistical tool of PCA. The principal component analysis will define the PCR, or Principal Components of Risk. Such definition of Risk will be adopted to test if the risk represented by PCR is explanatory of the movements of equity and/or debt for the banks included in the in the index Itraxx financial senior: the results of these regressions will be compared with a formal Capital Adequacy test in order to assess the financial soundness of the main financial European institutions.

Financial Development and Economic Growth: Time Series Evidence from Albania

The main objective of this thesis is to explore the short and long run causality patterns in the finance – growth nexus and finance-growth-trade nexus before and after the global financial crisis, in the case of Albania. To this end we use quarterly data on real GDP, 13 proxy measures for financial development and the trade openness indicator for the period 1998Q1 – 2013Q2 and 1998Q1-2008Q3. Causality patterns will be explored in a VAR-VECM framework. For this purpose we will proceed as follows: (i) testing for the integration order of the variables; (ii) cointegration analysis and (iii) performing Granger causality tests in a VAR-VECM framework. In the finance-growth nexus, empirical evidence suggests for a positive long run relationship between finance and economic growth, with causality running from financial development to economic growth. The global financial crisis seems to have not affected the causality direction in the finance and growth nexus, thus supporting the finance led growth hypothesis in the long run in the case of Albania. In the finance-growth-trade openness nexus, we found evidence for a positive long run relationship the variables, with causality direction depending on the proxy used for financial development. When the pre-crisis sample is considered, we find evidence for causality running from financial development and trade openness to economic growth. The global financial crisis seems to have affected somewhat the causality direction in the finance-growth-trade nexus, which has become sensible to the proxy used for financial development. On the short run, empirical evidence suggests for a clear unidirectional relationship between finance and growth, with causality mostly running from economic growth to financial development. When we consider the per-crisis sub sample results are mixed, depending on the proxy used for financial development. The same results are confirmed when trade openness is taken into account.

The prehistoric inhabitants of the Wadi Howar : an anthropological study of human skeletal remains from the Sudanese part of the Eastern Sahara

All currently available human skeletal remains from the Wadi Howar (Eastern Sahara, Sudan) were employed in an anthropological study. The study’s first aim was to describe this unique 5th to 2nd millennium BCE material, which comprised representatives of all three prehistoric occupation phases of the region. Detecting diachronic differences in robusticity, occupational stress levels and health within the spatially, temporally and culturally heterogeneous sample was its second objective. The study’s third goal was to reveal metric and non-metric affinities between the different parts of the series and between the Wadi Howar material and other relevant prehistoric as well as modern African populations. rnThe reconstruction and comprehensive osteological analysis of 23 as yet unpublished individuals, the bulk of the Wadi Howar series, constituted the first stage of the study. The analyses focused on each individual’s in situ position, state of preservation, sex, age at death, living height, living weight, physique, biological ancestry, epigenetic traits, robusticity, occupational stress markers, health and metric as well as morphological characteristics. Building on the results of these efforts and the re-examination of the rest of the material, the Wadi Howar series as a whole, altogether 32 individuals, could be described. rnA wide variety of robusticity, occupational stress and health variables was evaluated. The pre-Leiterband (hunter-gatherer-fisher/hunter-gatherer-fisher-herder) and the Leiterband (herder-gatherer) data of over a third of these variables differed statistically significantly or in tendency from each other. The Leiterband sub-sample was characterised by higher enamel hypoplasia frequencies, lower mean ages at death and less pronounced expressions of occupational stress traits. This pattern was interpreted as evidence that the adoption and intensification of animal husbandry did probably not constitute reactions to worsening conditions. Apart from that, the relevant observations, noteworthy tendencies and significant differences were explained as results of a broader spectrum of pre-Leiterband subsistence activities and the negative side effects of the increasingly specialised herder-gatherer economy of the Leiterband phase. rnUsing only the data which could actually be collected from it, multiple, separate, individualised discriminant function analyses were carried out for each Wadi Howar skeleton to determine which prehistoric and which modern comparative sample it was most similar to. The results of all individual analyses were then summarised and examined as a whole. Thus it became possible to draw conclusions about the affinities the Wadi Howar material shared with prehistoric as well as modern populations and to answer questions concerning the diachronic links between the Wadi Howar’s prehistoric populations. When the Wadi Howar remains were positioned in the context of the selected prehistoric (Jebel Sahaba/Tushka, A-Group, Malian Sahara) and modern comparative samples (Southern Sudan, Chad, Mandinka, Somalis, Haya) in this fashion three main findings emerged. Firstly, the series as a whole displayed very strong affinities with the prehistoric sample from the Malian Sahara (Hassi el Abiod, Kobadi, Erg Ine Sakane, etc.) and the modern material from Southern Sudan and, to a lesser extent, Chad. Secondly, the pre-Leiterband and the Leiterband sub-sample were closer to the prehistoric Malian as well as the modern Southern Sudanese material than they were to each other. Thirdly, the group of pre-Leiterband individuals approached the Late Pleistocene sample from Jebel Sahaba/Tushka under certain circumstances. A theory offering explanations for these findings was developed. According to this theory, the entire prehistoric population of the Wadi Howar belonged to a Saharo-Nilotic population complex. The Jebel Sahaba/Tushka population constituted an old Nilotic and the early population of the Malian Sahara a younger Saharan part of this complex. The pre-Leiterband groups probably colonised the Wadi Howar from the east, either during or soon after the original Saharo-Nilotic expansion. Unlike the pre-Leiterband groups, the Leiterband people originated somewhere west of the Wadi Howar. They entered the region in the context of a later, secondary Saharo-Nilotic expansion. In the process, the incoming Leiterband groups absorbed many members of the Wadi Howar’s older pre-Leiterband population. The increasing aridification of the Wadi Howar region ultimately forced its prehistoric inhabitants to abandon the wadi. Most of them migrated south and west. They, or groups closely related to them, probably were the ancestors of the majority of the Nilo-Saharan-speaking pastoralists of modern-day Southern Sudan and Eastern Chad.

Trait emotional intelligence: Evidence from italian adolescents and adults

Emotional intelligence (EI) represents an attribute of contemporary attractiveness for the scientific psychology community. Of particular interest for the present thesis are the conundrum related to the representation of this construct conceptualized as a trait (i.e., trait EI), which are in turn reflected in the current lack of agreement upon its constituent elements, posing significant challenges to research and clinical progress. Trait EI is defined as an umbrella personality-alike construct reflecting emotion-related dispositions and self-perceptions. The Trait Emotional Intelligence Questionnaire (TEIQue) was chosen as main measure, given its strong theoretical and psychometrical basis, including superior predictive validity when compared to other trait EI measures. Studies 1 and 2 aimed at validating the Italian 153-items forms of the TEIQue devoted to adolescents and adults. Analyses were done to investigate the structure of the questionnaire, its internal consistencies and gender differences at the facets, factor, and global level of both versions. Despite some low reliabilities, results from Studies 1 and 2 confirm the four-factor structure of the TEIQue. Study 3 investigated the utility of trait EI in a sample of adolescents over internalizing conditions (i.e., symptoms of anxiety and depression) and academic performance (grades at math and Italian language/literacy). Beyond trait EI, concurrent effects of demographic variables, higher order personality dimensions and non-verbal cognitive ability were controlled for. Study 4a and Study 4b addressed analogue research questions, through a meta-analysis and new data in on adults. In the latter case, effects of demographics, emotion regulation strategies, and the Big Five were controlled. Overall, these studies showed the incremental utility of the TEIQue in different domains beyond relevant predictors. Analyses performed at the level of the four-TEIQue factors consistently indicated that its predictive effects were mainly due to the factor Well-Being. Findings are discussed with reference to potential implication for theory and practice.

Mortality from road traffic accidents in Switzerland: longitudinal and spatial analyses

Road traffic accidents (RTA) are an important cause of premature death. We examined socio-demographic and geographical determinants of RTA mortality in Switzerland by linking 2000 census data to RTA mortality records 2000-2005 (ICD-10 codes V00-V99). Data from 5.5 million residents aged 18-94 years, 1744 study areas, and 1620 RTA deaths were analyzed, including 978 deaths (60.4%) in motor vehicle occupants, 254 (15.7%) in motorcyclists, 107 (6.6%) in cyclists, and 259 (16.0%) in pedestrians. Weibull survival models and Bayesian methods were used to calculate hazard ratios (HR), and standardized mortality ratios (SMR) across study areas. Adjusted HR comparing women with men ranged from 0.04 (95% CI 0.02-0.07) in motorcyclists to 0.43 (95% CI 0.32-0.56) in pedestrians. There was a u-shaped relationship with age in motor vehicle occupants and motorcyclists. In cyclists and pedestrians, mortality increased after age 55 years. Mortality was higher in individuals with primary education (HR 1.53; 95% CI 1.29-1.81), and higher in single (HR 1.24; 95% CI 1.05-1.46), widowed (HR 1.31; 95% CI 1.05-1.65) and divorced individuals (HR 1.62; 95% CI 1.33-1.97), compared to persons with tertiary education or married persons. The association with education was particularly strong for pedestrians (HR 1.87; 95% CI 1.20-2.91). RTA mortality increased with decreasing population density of study areas for motor vehicle occupants (test for trend p<0.0001) and motorcyclists (p=0.0021) but not for cyclists (p=0.39) or pedestrians (p=0.29). SMR standardized for socio-demographic and geographical variables ranged from 82 to 190. Prevention efforts should aim to reduce inequities across socio-demographic and educational groups, and across geographical areas, with interventions targeted at high-risk groups and areas, and different traffic users, including pedestrians.

Predicting the transition from acute to persistent low back pain

BACKGROUND: Most people experience low back pain (LBP) at least once in their lifetime. Only a minority of them go on to develop persistent LBP. However, the socioeconomic costs of persistent LBP significantly exceed the costs of the initial acute LBP episode. AIMS: To identify factors that influence the progression of acute LBP to the persistent state at an early stage. METHODS: Prospective inception cohort study of patients attending a health practitioner for their first episode of acute LBP or recurrent LBP after a pain free period of at least 6 months. Patients were assessed at baseline addressing occupational and psychological factors as well as pain, disability, quality of life and physical activity and followed up at 3, 6, 12 weeks and 6 months. Variables were combined to the three indices 'working condition', 'depression and maladaptive cognitions' and 'pain and quality of life'. RESULTS: The index 'depression and maladaptive cognitions' was found to be a significant baseline predictor for persistent LBP up to 6 months (OR 5.1; 95% CI: 1.04-25.1). Overall predictive accuracy of the model was 81%. CONCLUSIONS: In this study of patients with acute LBP in a primary care setting psychological factors at baseline correlated with a progression to persistent LBP up to 6 months. The benefit of including factors such as 'depression and maladaptive cognition' in screening tools is that these factors can be addressed in primary and secondary prevention.

Predicting the transition from acute to persistent low back pain

BACKGROUND: Most people experience low back pain (LBP) at least once in their lifetime. Only a minority of them go on to develop persistent LBP. However, the socioeconomic costs of persistent LBP significantly exceed the costs of the initial acute LBP episode. AIMS: To identify factors that influence the progression of acute LBP to the persistent state at an early stage. METHODS: Prospective inception cohort study of patients attending a health practitioner for their first episode of acute LBP or recurrent LBP after a pain free period of at least 6 months. Patients were assessed at baseline addressing occupational and psychological factors as well as pain, disability, quality of life and physical activity and followed up at 3, 6, 12 weeks and 6 months. Variables were combined to the three indices 'working condition', 'depression and maladaptive cognitions' and 'pain and quality of life'. RESULTS: The index 'depression and maladaptive cognitions' was found to be a significant baseline predictor for persistent LBP up to 6 months (OR 5.1; 95% CI: 1.04-25.1). Overall predictive accuracy of the model was 81%. CONCLUSIONS: In this study of patients with acute LBP in a primary care setting psychological factors at baseline correlated with a progression to persistent LBP up to 6 months. The benefit of including factors such as 'depression and maladaptive cognition' in screening tools is that these factors can be addressed in primary and secondary prevention.

Privatization in Bosnia and Herzegovina: Insights from and into the craft of interorganizational process analysis.

International efforts to help Bosnia and Herzegovina privatize its state-owned enterprises proved dif.cult, but the complex web of interorganizational relationships (IORs) among international donors, implementers, contractors, and local players, at times, seemed even more daunting to effective implementation of reforms than the technical dif.culties of the task itself. By employing a theoretical framework of IOR development over time, important stages in the evolution of the International Advisory Group on Privatization were identi.ed, and variables within each discussed. Analysis employed linear and nonlinear process logics to help explain what linked some variables withinand betweenthese various phases. Insights seemed valuable for practitioners seeking to implement interdependent tasks, organizational representatives trying to form relationships with others, and scholars trying to understand process theories of IOR formation. In addition, this research provides an introduction to the complexities of international development assistance — a crucially important and under-researched arena.

Clinical outcomes after PCI for acute coronary syndrome in unprotected left main coronary artery disease: insights from the Swiss Acute Left Main Coronary Vessel Percutaneous Management (SALVage) study

Unprotected left main (ULM) coronary artery disease is encountered in 3%-10% of coronary angiograms and is associated with high mortality. The survival of patients with ULM disease presenting with acute coronary syndromes (ACS) depends on different variables and is lowest in those with cardiogenic shock (CS). The aim of the present study was to estimate the impact of baseline characteristics on the subsequent clinical outcome in patients treated by percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) of ULM for ACS.

Variables of host response in saliva of patients with periodontitis: A pilot study

Periodontitis is an infection that results from an imbalance between periodontopathic microorganisms and the local and systemic host defense. This study analyzed saliva samples of patients with periodontitis for several biomarkers of host response.

Does pet ownership in infancy lead to asthma or allergy at school age? Pooled analysis of individual participant data from 11 European birth cohorts

Objective To examine the associations between pet keeping in early childhood and asthma and allergies in children aged 6–10 years. Design Pooled analysis of individual participant data of 11 prospective European birth cohorts that recruited a total of over 22,000 children in the 1990s. Exposure definition Ownership of only cats, dogs, birds, rodents, or cats/dogs combined during the first 2 years of life. Outcome definition Current asthma (primary outcome), allergic asthma, allergic rhinitis and allergic sensitization during 6–10 years of age. Data synthesis Three-step approach: (i) Common definition of outcome and exposure variables across cohorts; (ii) calculation of adjusted effect estimates for each cohort; (iii) pooling of effect estimates by using random effects meta-analysis models. Results We found no association between furry and feathered pet keeping early in life and asthma in school age. For example, the odds ratio for asthma comparing cat ownership with “no pets” (10 studies, 11489 participants) was 1.00 (95% confidence interval 0.78 to 1.28) (I2 = 9%; p = 0.36). The odds ratio for asthma comparing dog ownership with “no pets” (9 studies, 11433 participants) was 0.77 (0.58 to 1.03) (I2 = 0%, p = 0.89). Owning both cat(s) and dog(s) compared to “no pets” resulted in an odds ratio of 1.04 (0.59 to 1.84) (I2 = 33%, p = 0.18). Similarly, for allergic asthma and for allergic rhinitis we did not find associations regarding any type of pet ownership early in life. However, we found some evidence for an association between ownership of furry pets during the first 2 years of life and reduced likelihood of becoming sensitized to aero-allergens. Conclusions Pet ownership in early life did not appear to either increase or reduce the risk of asthma or allergic rhinitis symptoms in children aged 6–10. Advice from health care practitioners to avoid or to specifically acquire pets for primary prevention of asthma or allergic rhinitis in children should not be given.