Thermal requirements, field mortality and population phenology modelling of Paropsis atomaria Olivier, an emergent pest in subtropical hardwood plantations

Paropsis atomaria is a recently emerged pest of eucalypt plantations in subtropical Australia. Its broad host range of at least 20 eucalypt species and wide geographical distribution provides it the potential to become a serious forestry pest both within Australia and, if accidentally introduced, overseas. Although populations of P. atomaria are genetically similar throughout its range, population dynamics differ between regions. Here, we determine temperature-dependent developmental requirements using beetles sourced from temperate and subtropical zones by calculating lower temperature thresholds, temperature-induced mortality, and day-degree requirements. We combine these data with field mortality estimates of immature life stages to produce a cohort-based model, ParopSys, using DYMEX™ that accurately predicts the timing, duration, and relative abundance of life stages in the field and number of generations in a spring–autumn (September–May) field season. Voltinism was identified as a seasonally plastic trait dependent upon environmental conditions, with two generations observed and predicted in the Australian Capital Territory, and up to four in Queensland. Lower temperature thresholds for development ranged between 4 and 9 °C, and overall development rates did not differ according to beetle origin. Total immature development time (egg–adult) was approximately 769.2 ± S.E. 127.8 DD above a lower temperature threshold of 6.4 ± S.E. 2.6 °C. ParopSys provides a basic tool enabling forest managers to use the number of generations and seasonal fluctuations in abundance of damaging life stages to estimate the pest risk of P. atomaria prior to plantation establishment, and predict the occurrence and duration of damaging life stages in the field. Additionally, by using local climatic data the pest potential of P. atomaria can be estimated to predict the risk of it establishing if accidentally introduced overseas. Improvements to ParopSys’ capability and complexity can be made as more biological data become available.

Survival of bottlenose dolphin (tursiops sp.) calves at a wild dolphin provisioning program, Tangalooma, Australia

Mortality of calves born to provisioned mothers is identified in the literature as an issue of concern in dolphin provisioning programs. Wild dolphin provisioning at Tangalooma, Moreton Island, Australia has been occurring since 1992. Each evening, up to eight dolphins are provided with fish in a regulated provisioning program. In this paper, calf survival at the Tangalooma provisioning program is reported and contrasted with that from wild populations and from a similar provisioning program at Monkey Mia, Western Australia. At Tangalooma, the calf survival rate is 100%, including both orphaned and first-born calves, both of which are expected to have relatively low survival rates. Possible explanations for the high calf survival rate are explored. These include site attributes such as isolated location and high water quality, aspects of foraging ecology likely to benefit calves of provisioned mothers, and the management regime used in the provisioning program (e.g., duration and timing of provisioning; quality of provisioned fish).

Modelling environmental effects on phenology and canopy development of diverse sorghum genotypes

The ability to predict phenology and canopy development is critical in crop models used for simulating likely consequences of alternative crop management and cultivar choice strategies. Here we quantify and contrast the temperature and photoperiod responses for phenology and canopy development of a diverse range of elite Indian and Australian sorghum genotypes (hybrid and landrace). Detailed field experiments were undertaken in Australia and India using a range of genotypes, sowing dates, and photoperiod extension treatments. Measurements of timing of developmental stages and leaf appearance were taken. The generality of photo-thermal approaches to modelling phenological and canopy development was tested. Environmental and genotypic effects on rate of progression from emergence to floral initiation (E-FI) were explained well using a multiplicative model, which combined the intrinsic development rate (Ropt), with responses to temperature and photoperiod. Differences in Ropt and extent of the photoperiod response explained most genotypic effects. Average leaf initiation rate (LIR), leaf appearance rate and duration of the phase from anthesis to physiological maturity differed among genotypes. The association of total leaf number (TLN) with photoperiod found for all genotypes could not be fully explained by effects on development and LIRs. While a putative effect of photoperiod on LIR would explain the observations, other possible confounding factors, such as air-soil temperature differential and the nature of model structure were considered and discussed. This study found a generally robust predictive capacity of photo-thermal development models across diverse ranges of both genotypes and environments. Hence, they remain the most appropriate models for simulation analysis of genotype-by-management scenarios in environments varying broadly in temperature and photoperiod.

Probabilistic forecasts of the onset of the north Australian wet season

The amount and timing of early wet-season rainfall are important for the management of many agricultural industries in north Australia. With this in mind, a wet-season onset date is defined based on the accumulation of rainfall to a predefined threshold, starting from 1 September, for each square of a 1° gridded analysis of daily rainfall across the region. Consistent with earlier studies, the interannual variability of the onset dates is shown to be well related to the immediately preceding July-August Southern Oscillation index (SOI). Based on this relationship, a forecast method using logistic regression is developed to predict the probability that onset will occur later than the climatological mean date. This method is expanded to also predict the probabilities that onset will be later than any of a range of threshold dates around the climatological mean. When assessed using cross-validated hindcasts, the skill of the predictions exceeds that of climatological forecasts in the majority of locations in north Australia, especially in the Top End region, Cape York, and central Queensland. At times of strong anomalies in the July-August SOI, the forecasts are reliably emphatic. Furthermore, predictions using tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) as the predictor are also tested. While short-lead (July-August predictor) forecasts are more skillful using the SOI, long-lead (May-June predictor) forecasts are more skillful using Pacific SSTs, indicative of the longer-term memory present in the ocean.

Anticipatory and reactive response to falls: Muscle synergy activation of forearm muscles

We investigated the surface electromyogram response of six forearm muscles to falls onto the outstretched hand. The extensor carpi radialis longus, extensor carpi radialis brevis, extensor carpi ulnaris, abductor pollicis longus, flexor carpi radialis and flexor carpi ulnaris muscles were sampled from eight volunteers who underwent ten self-initiated falls. All muscles initiated prior to impact. Co-contraction is the most obvious surface electromyogram feature. The predominant response is in the radial deviators. The surface electromyogram timing we recorded would appear to be a complex anticipatory response to falling modified by the ef- fect on the forearm muscles following impact. The mitigation of the force of impact is probably more importantly through shoulder abduction and extension and elbow flexion rather than action of the forearm muscles.

Are we focussing wild dog control the wrong time of the year and going about it the wrong way?

Our evaluation of the predation of calves by wild dogs in the 1990s found that the number of calves killed and frequency of years that calf losses occurred, is higher in baited areas compared to adjoining, non-baited areas of similar size. Calf losses were highest with poor seasonal conditions, low prey numbers and where baited areas were re-colonised by wild dogs soon after baiting. We monitored wild dog “activity” before and after 35 baiting programs in southwest, central west and far north Queensland between 1994 and 2006 and found change in activity depends on the timing of the baiting. Baiting programs conducted between October and April show an increase in dog activity post-baiting (average increase of 219.1%, SEM 100.9, n=9, for programs conducted in October and November; an increase of 82.5%, SEM 54.5, n=7 for programs conducted in March and April; and a decrease in activity of 46.5%, SEM 10.2, n=19 for programs conducted between May and September). We monitored the seasonal activity and dispersal of wild dogs fitted with satellite transmitters 2006 to present. We have found that: • Activity of breeding males and females, whilst rearing and nurturing pups, is focussed around the den between July to September and away from areas of human activity. Activity of breeding groups appears to avoid locations of human activity until juveniles become independent (around late November). • While independent and solitary yearlings often have unstable, elliptically-shaped territories in less favourable areas, members of breeding groups have territories that appear seasonally stable and circular located in more favourable habitats. • Extra-territorial forays of solitary yearlings can be huge, in excess of 200 km. The largest forays we have monitored have occurred when the activity of pack members is focussed around rearing pups and juveniles (August to November). • Where wild dogs have dispersed or had significant territorial expansion, it has occurred within days of baiting programs and onto recently baited properties. • The wild dogs we have tracked have followed netting barrier fences for hundreds of kilometres and lived adjacent to or bypassed numerous grids in the barrier. Based on these studies, we conclude that a proportion of the perceived decline in dog activity between May and September, post baiting, is due to a decline in dog activity in areas associated with human activity. The increase in dog activity post-baiting between October and May (and increased calf predation on baited properties) is likely caused by wild dogs dispersing (juveniles and yearlings) or expanding (adults) their territory into baited, now ‘vacant’, areas. We hypothesise that baiting programs should be focussed in summer and autumn commencing late November as soon as juveniles become independent of adults. We also hypothesise that instead of large, annual or semi-annual baiting programs, laying the same number of baits over 4-6 weeks may be more effective. These hypotheses need to be tested through an adaptive management project.

Defining and predicting the 'break of the season' for north-east Queensland grazing areas

For pasture growth in the semi-arid tropics of north-east Australia, where up to 80% of annual rainfall occurs between December and March, the timing and distribution of rainfall events is often more important than the total amount. In particular, the timing of the 'green break of the season' (GBOS) at the end of the dry season, when new pasture growth becomes available as forage and a live-weight gain is measured in cattle, affects several important management decisions that prevent overgrazing and pasture degradation. Currently, beef producers in the region use a GBOS rule based on rainfall (e. g. 40mm of rain over three days by 1 December) to define the event and make their management decisions. A survey of 16 beef producers in north-east Queensland shows three quarters of respondents use a rainfall amount that occurs in only half or less than half of all years at their location. In addition, only half the producers expect the GBOS to occur within two weeks of the median date calculated by the CSIRO plant growth days model GRIM. This result suggests that in the producer rules, either the rainfall quantity or the period of time over which the rain is expected, is unrealistic. Despite only 37% of beef producers indicating that they use a southern oscillation index (SOI) forecast in their decisions, cross validated LEPS (linear error in probability space) analyses showed both the average 3 month July-September SOI and the 2 month August-September SOI have significant forecast skill in predicting the probability of both the amount of wet season rainfall and the timing of the GBOS. The communication and implementation of a rigorous and realistic definition of the GBOS, and the likely impacts of anthropogenic climate change on the region are discussed in the context of the sustainable management of northern Australian rangelands.

Posttraumatic stress symptoms among school personnel after the Jokela school shooting : A longitudial study of exposure, interventions, and symptom changes

Objectives. School personnel who are exposed to school violence are at risk in developing post traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). In Finland there have been two such events in recent years, Jokela school shooting on 7.11.2007 and Kauhajoki school shooting about a year later. The aim of the present study was to examine the presence and change in PTSD symptoms during the first year after the Jokela school shooting. A second aim was to study how the initial exposure and treatment affects the symptom levels of PTSD. There were four hypotheses: 1) The PTSD symptoms are higher for the people who were exposed to the school shooting than for the people who did not face the stressor. 2) The PTSD symptoms increase in the follow up for the people at the school which was not attacked because of the second incident brought up the memories from the Jokela school shooting. 3) Those who have greater exposure to the shooting will have higher level of PTSD symptoms at both 4 and 11 months after the shooting than those who were not directly exposed to the shooting. 4) The PTSD symptoms are reduced more in the group that starts treatment right after the traumatic event than in other groups. Methods. A sample of 24 members of Jokela school personnel were examined four months after the incident and 16 were reassessed 11 month after the incident. To study the change and level of symptoms in other schools during the same period, a group with no exposure to the shooting was used as a control group (n=22). The assessment included Post Traumatic Stress Disorder Checklist Specific (PCL-S) and a social and professional support questionnaire. In addition questions about timing of support and experiences of psychological debriefing were asked. Results and conclusions. Most participants in the study group experienced some symptoms of PTSD at both 4 and 11 months. In both measures three participants from the study group fulfilled the diagnostic criteria for PTSD. The study group and control group differed significantly in overall symptom levels. The study group had more PTSD symptoms in the first measure but in the follow-up the study group’s PTSD symptoms decreased and the control group’s increased. There was a significant change in the study groups PTSD symptom level for those who started treatment right after the traumatic event. The results from this study showed that an exposure to school shooting has long-term effects on school personnel. The findings suggest that it is crucial to plan a comprehensive and long-term treatment for school personnel in the aftermath of school shooting.

A scientific approach to agent selection

The prioritisation of potential agents on the basis of likely efficacy is an important step in biological control because it can increase the probability of a successful biocontrol program, and reduce risks and costs. In this introductory paper we define success in biological control, review how agent selection has been approached historically, and outline the approach to agent selection that underpins the structure of this special issue on agent selection. Developing criteria by which to judge the success of a biocontrol agent (or program) provides the basis for agent selection decisions. Criteria will depend on the weed, on the ecological and management context in which that weed occurs, and on the negative impacts that biocontrol is seeking to redress. Predicting which potential agents are most likely to be successful poses enormous scientific challenges. 'Rules of thumb', 'scoring systems' and various conceptual and quantitative modelling approaches have been proposed to aid agent selection. However, most attempts have met with limited success due to the diversity and complexity of the systems in question. This special issue presents a series of papers that deconstruct the question of agent choice with the aim of progressively improving the success rate of biological control. Specifically they ask: (i) what potential agents are available and what should we know about them? (ii) what type, timing and degree of damage is required to achieve success? and (iii) which potential agent will reach the necessary density, at the right time, to exert the required damage in the target environment?

Measuring and predicting canopy nitrogen nutrition in wheat using a spectral index—The canopy chlorophyll content index (CCCI).

Varying the spatial distribution of applied nitrogen (N) fertilizer to match demand in crops has been shown to increase profits in Australia. Better matching the timing of N inputs to plant requirements has been shown to improve nitrogen use efficiency and crop yields and could reduce nitrous oxide emissions from broad acre grains. Farmers in the wheat production area of south eastern Australia are increasingly splitting N application with the second timing applied at stem elongation (Zadoks 30). Spectral indices have shown the ability to detect crop canopy N status but a robust method using a consistent calibration that functions across seasons has been lacking. One spectral index, the canopy chlorophyll content index (CCCI) designed to detect canopy N using three wavebands along the "red edge" of the spectrum was combined with the canopy nitrogen index (CNI), which was developed to normalize for crop biomass and correct for the N dilution effect of crop canopies. The CCCI-CNI index approach was applied to a 3-year study to develop a single calibration derived from a wheat crop sown in research plots near Horsham, Victoria, Australia. The index was able to predict canopy N (g m-2) from Zadoks 14-37 with an r2 of 0.97 and RMSE of 0.65 g N m-2 when dry weight biomass by area was also considered. We suggest that measures of N estimated from remote methods use N per unit area as the metric and that reference directly to canopy %N is not an appropriate method for estimating plant concentration without first accounting for the N dilution effect. This approach provides a link to crop development rather than creating a purely numerical relationship. The sole biophysical input, biomass, is challenging to quantify robustly via spectral methods. Combining remote sensing with crop modelling could provide a robust method for estimating biomass and therefore a method to estimate canopy N remotely. Future research will explore this and the use of active and passive sensor technologies for use in precision farming for targeted N management.

Why are students choosing STEM and when do they make their choice?

BACKGROUND OR CONTEXT The higher education sector plays an important role in encouraging students into the STEM pipeline through fostering partnerships with schools, building on universities long tradition in engagement and outreach to secondary schools. Numerous activities focus on integrated STEM learning experiences aimed at developing conceptual scientific and mathematical knowledge with opportunities for students to show and develop skills in working with each other and actively engaging in discussion, decision making and collaborative problem solving. (NAS, 2013; AIG, 2015; OCS, 2014). This highlights the importance of the development and delivery of engaging integrated STEM activities connected to the curriculum to inspire the next generation of scientists and engineers and generally preparing students for post-secondary success. The broad research objective is to gain insight into which engagement activities and to what level they influence secondary school students’ selection of STEM-related career choices at universities. PURPOSE OR GOAL To evaluate and determine the effectiveness of STEM engagement activities impacting student decision making in choosing a STEM-related degree choice at university. APPROACH A survey was conducted with first-year domestic students studying STEM-related fieldswithin the Science and Engineering Faculty at Queensland University of Technology. Of the domestic students commencing in 2015, 29% responded to the survey. The survey was conducted using Survey Monkey and included a variety of questions ranging from academic performance at school to inspiration for choosing a STEM degree. Responses were analysed on a range of factors to evaluate the influence on students’ decisions to study STEM and whether STEM high school engagement activities impacted these decisions. To achieve this the timing of decision making for students choice in study area, degree, and university is compared with the timing of STEM engagement activities. DISCUSSION Statistical analysis using SPSS was carried out on survey data looking at reasons for choosing STEM degrees in terms of gender, academic performance and major influencers in their decision making. It was found that students choose their university courses based on what subjects they enjoyed and exceled at in school. These results found a high correlation between enjoyment of a school subject and their interest in pursuing this subject at university and beyond. Survey results indicated students are heavily influenced by their subject teachers and parents in their choice of STEM-related disciplines. In terms of career choice and when students make their decision, 60% have decided on a broad area of study by year 10, whilst only 15% had decided on a specific course and 10% had decided on which university. The timing of secondary STEM engagement activities is seen as a critical influence on choosing STEM disciplines or selection of senior school subjects with 80% deciding on specific degree between year 11 and 12 and 73% making a decision on which university in year 12. RECOMMENDATIONS/IMPLICATIONS/CONCLUSION Although the data does not support that STEM engagement activities increase the likelihood of STEM-related degree choice, the evidence suggests the students who have participated in STEM activities associate their experiences with their choice to pursue a STEM-related course. It is important for universities to continue to provide quality engaging and inspirational learning experiences in STEM, to identify and build on students’ early interest and engagement, increase STEM knowledge and awareness, engage them in interdisciplinary project-based STEM practices, and provide them with real-world application experiences to sustain their interest.

Applying a simulation model to the management of an infestation of Miconia calvescens in the wet tropics of Australia

A simulation model that combines biological, search and economic components is applied to the eradication of a Miconia calvescens infestation at El Arish in tropical Queensland, Australia. Information on the year M. calvescens was introduced to the site, the number of plants controlled and the timing of control, is used to show that currently there could be M. calvescens plants remaining undetected at the site, including some mature plants. Modelling results indicate that the eradication programme has had a significant impact on the population of M. calvescens, as shown by simulated results for uncontrolled and controlled populations. The model was also used to investigate the effect of changing search effort on the cost of and time to eradication. Control costs were found to be negligible over all levels of search effort tested. Importantly, results suggest eradication may be achieved within several decades, if resources are increased slightly from their current levels and if there is a long-term commitment to funding the eradication programme.

The impacts and management of foxes Vulpes vulpes in Australia

1. The successful introduction of the red fox Vulpes vulpes into Australia in the 1870s has had dramatic and deleterious impacts on both native fauna and agricultural production. Historical accounts detail how the arrival of foxes in many areas coincided with the local demise of native fauna. Recent analyses suggest that native fauna can be successfully reintroduced to their former ranges only if foxes have been controlled, and several replicated removal experiments have confirmed that foxes are the major agents of extirpation of native fauna. Predation is the primary cause of losses, but competition and transmission of disease may be important for some species. 2. In agricultural landscapes, fox predation on lambs can cause losses of 1–30%; variation is due to flock size, health and management, as well as differences in the timing and duration of lambing and the density of foxes. 3. Fox control measures include trapping, shooting, den fumigation and exclusion fencing; baiting using the toxin 1080 is the most commonly employed method. Depending on the baiting strategy, habitat and area covered, baiting can reduce fox activity by 50–97%. We review patterns of baiting in a large sheep-grazing region in central New South Wales, and propose guidelines to increase landholder awareness of baiting strategies, to concentrate and coordinate bait use, and to maximize the cost-effectiveness of baiting programs. 4. The variable reduction in fox density within the baited area, together with the ability of the fox to recolonize rapidly, suggest that current baiting practices in eastern Australia are often ineffective, and that reforms are required. These might include increasing landholder awareness and involvement in group control programs, and the use of more efficient broadscale techniques, such as aerial baiting.

Nitrogen use for high productivity and sustainability in cashew.

Interest in cashew production in Australia has been stimulated by domestic and export market opportunities and suitability of large areas of tropical Australia. Economic models indicate that cashew production is profitable at 2.8 t ha-1 nut-in-shell (NIS). Balanced plant nutrition is essential to achieve economic yields in Australia, with nitrogen (N) of particular importance because of its capacity to modify growth, affect nut yield and cause environmental degradation through soil acidification and off-site contamination. The study on a commercial cashew plantation at Dimbulah, Australia, investigated the effect of N rate and timing on cashew growth, nut production, N leaching and soil chemical properties over five growth cycles (1995-1999). Nitrogen was applied during the main periods of vegetative (December-April) and reproductive (June-October) growth. Commercial NIS yields (up to 4.4 t ha-1 from individual trees) that exceeded the economic threshold of 2.8 t ha-1 were achieved. The yield response was mainly determined by canopy size as mean nut weight, panicle density and nuts per panicle were largely unaffected by N treatments. Nitrogen application confined to the main period of vegetative growth (December-April) produced a seasonal growth pattern that corresponded most consistently with highest NIS yield. This N timing also reduced late season flowering and undesirable post-November nut drop. Higher yields were not produced at N rates greater than 17 g m-2 of canopy surface area (equating to 210 kg N ha-1 for mature size trees). High yields were attained when N concentrations in Mveg leaves in May-June were about 2%, but this assessment occurs at a time when it is not feasible to correct N deficiency. The Mflor leaf of the preceding November, used in conjunction with the Mveg leaf, was proposed as a diagnostic tool to guide N rate decisions. Leaching of nitrate-N and acidification of the soil profile was recorded to 0.9 m. This is an environmental and sustainability hazard, and demonstrates that improved methods of N management are required.

Sustainable Grazing in the Channel Country Floodplains (phase 2) : A technical report on findings between March 2003 and June 2006

‘Sustainable Grazing in the Channel Country Floodplains’ was initiated by industry to redress the lack of objective information for sustainable management in the floodplains of Cooper Creek and the Diamantina and Georgina Rivers. The project has maintained links with the grazing community and has extensively drawn upon expert local experience and knowledge. The project has provided tools for managers to better anticipate the size of beneficial flooding arising from rains in the upper catchment and to more objectively assess the value of the pasture resulting from flooding. The latest information from the project has enabled customisation of the EDGENetwork™ Grazing Land Management training package for the Channel Country. In combination, these tools will assist in making earlier cattle stocking decisions, including when cattle may need to be mustered out of floodplain paddocks, how many additional cattle will be required to take advantage of the flood–grown pasture, and the timing of cattle turnoff. These will reduce costs by providing a greater lead time to plan cattle movements and purchases, and may enhance the sustainability of the resource base by better matching cattle numbers with the feed on offer.