Bayesian space-time data fusion for real-time forecasting and map uncertainty

Environmental computer models are deterministic models devoted to predict several environmental phenomena such as air pollution or meteorological events. Numerical model output is given in terms of averages over grid cells, usually at high spatial and temporal resolution. However, these outputs are often biased with unknown calibration and not equipped with any information about the associated uncertainty. Conversely, data collected at monitoring stations is more accurate since they essentially provide the true levels. Due the leading role played by numerical models, it now important to compare model output with observations. Statistical methods developed to combine numerical model output and station data are usually referred to as data fusion. In this work, we first combine ozone monitoring data with ozone predictions from the Eta-CMAQ air quality model in order to forecast real-time current 8-hour average ozone level defined as the average of the previous four hours, current hour, and predictions for the next three hours. We propose a Bayesian downscaler model based on first differences with a flexible coefficient structure and an efficient computational strategy to fit model parameters. Model validation for the eastern United States shows consequential improvement of our fully inferential approach compared with the current real-time forecasting system. Furthermore, we consider the introduction of temperature data from a weather forecast model into the downscaler, showing improved real-time ozone predictions. Finally, we introduce a hierarchical model to obtain spatially varying uncertainty associated with numerical model output. We show how we can learn about such uncertainty through suitable stochastic data fusion modeling using some external validation data. We illustrate our Bayesian model by providing the uncertainty map associated with a temperature output over the northeastern United States.

In-situ and real time scanning probe microscopy of organic ultra thin films

In recent decades, Organic Thin Film Transistors (OTFTs) have attracted lots of interest due to their low cost, large area and flexible properties which have brought them to be considered the building blocks of the future organic electronics. Experimentally, devices based on the same organic material deposited in different ways, i.e. by varying the deposition rate of the molecules, show different electrical performance. As predicted theoretically, this is due to the speed and rate by which charge carriers can be transported by hopping in organic thin films, transport that depends on the molecular arrangement of the molecules. This strongly suggests a correlation between the morphology of the organic semiconductor and the performance of the OTFT and hence motivated us to carry out an in-situ real time SPM study of organic semiconductor growth as an almost unprecedent experiment with the aim to fully describe the morphological evolution of the ultra-thin film and find the relevant morphological parameters affecting the OTFT electrical response. For the case of 6T on silicon oxide, we have shown that the growth mechanism is 2D+3D, with a roughening transition at the third layer and a rapid roughening. Relevant morphological parameters have been extracted by the AFM images. We also developed an original mathematical model to estimate theoretically and more accurately than before, the capacitance of an EFM tip in front of a metallic substrate. Finally, we obtained Ultra High Vacuum (UHV) AFM images of 6T at lying molecules layer both on silicon oxide and on top of 6T islands. Moreover, we performed ex-situ AFM imaging on a bilayer film composed of pentacene (a p-type semiconductor) and C60 (an n-type semiconductor).

Black Hole and Galaxy Growth over Cosmic Time: the Chandra COSMOS Legacy Survey

The study of supermassive black hole (SMBH) accretion during their phase of activity (hence becoming active galactic nuclei, AGN), and its relation to the host-galaxy growth, requires large datasets of AGN, including a significant fraction of obscured sources. X-ray data are strategic in AGN selection, because at X-ray energies the contamination from non-active galaxies is far less significant than in optical/infrared surveys, and the selection of obscured AGN, including also a fraction of heavily obscured AGN, is much more effective. In this thesis, I present the results of the Chandra COSMOS Legacy survey, a 4.6 Ms X-ray survey covering the equatorial COSMOS area. The COSMOS Legacy depth (flux limit f=2x10^(-16) erg/s/cm^(-2) in the 0.5-2 keV band) is significantly better than that of other X-ray surveys on similar area, and represents the path for surveys with future facilities, like Athena and X-ray Surveyor. The final Chandra COSMOS Legacy catalog contains 4016 point-like sources, 97% of which with redshift. 65% of the sources are optically obscured and potentially caught in the phase of main BH growth. We used the sample of 174 Chandra COSMOS Legacy at z>3 to place constraints on the BH formation scenario. We found a significant disagreement between our space density and the predictions of a physical model of AGN activation through major-merger. This suggests that in our luminosity range the BH triggering through secular accretion is likely preferred to a major-merger triggering scenario. Thanks to its large statistics, the Chandra COSMOS Legacy dataset, combined with the other multiwavelength COSMOS catalogs, will be used to answer questions related to a large number of astrophysical topics, with particular focus on the SMBH accretion in different luminosity and redshift regimes.

Optimized scheduling in real-time environments with column generation

Im Bereich sicherheitsrelevanter eingebetteter Systeme stellt sich der Designprozess von Anwendungen als sehr komplex dar. Entsprechend einer gegebenen Hardwarearchitektur lassen sich Steuergeräte aufrüsten, um alle bestehenden Prozesse und Signale pünktlich auszuführen. Die zeitlichen Anforderungen sind strikt und müssen in jeder periodischen Wiederkehr der Prozesse erfüllt sein, da die Sicherstellung der parallelen Ausführung von größter Bedeutung ist. Existierende Ansätze können schnell Designalternativen berechnen, aber sie gewährleisten nicht, dass die Kosten für die nötigen Hardwareänderungen minimal sind. Wir stellen einen Ansatz vor, der kostenminimale Lösungen für das Problem berechnet, die alle zeitlichen Bedingungen erfüllen. Unser Algorithmus verwendet Lineare Programmierung mit Spaltengenerierung, eingebettet in eine Baumstruktur, um untere und obere Schranken während des Optimierungsprozesses bereitzustellen. Die komplexen Randbedingungen zur Gewährleistung der periodischen Ausführung verlagern sich durch eine Zerlegung des Hauptproblems in unabhängige Unterprobleme, die als ganzzahlige lineare Programme formuliert sind. Sowohl die Analysen zur Prozessausführung als auch die Methoden zur Signalübertragung werden untersucht und linearisierte Darstellungen angegeben. Des Weiteren präsentieren wir eine neue Formulierung für die Ausführung mit fixierten Prioritäten, die zusätzlich Prozessantwortzeiten im schlimmsten anzunehmenden Fall berechnet, welche für Szenarien nötig sind, in denen zeitliche Bedingungen an Teilmengen von Prozessen und Signalen gegeben sind. Wir weisen die Anwendbarkeit unserer Methoden durch die Analyse von Instanzen nach, welche Prozessstrukturen aus realen Anwendungen enthalten. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen, dass untere Schranken schnell berechnet werden können, um die Optimalität von heuristischen Lösungen zu beweisen. Wenn wir optimale Lösungen mit Antwortzeiten liefern, stellt sich unsere neue Formulierung in der Laufzeitanalyse vorteilhaft gegenüber anderen Ansätzen dar. Die besten Resultate werden mit einem hybriden Ansatz erzielt, der heuristische Startlösungen, eine Vorverarbeitung und eine heuristische mit einer kurzen nachfolgenden exakten Berechnungsphase verbindet.

Common parietal activation in musical mental transformations across pitch and time

We previously observed that mental manipulation of the pitch level or temporal organization of melodies results in functional activation in the human intraparietal sulcus (IPS), a region also associated with visuospatial transformation and numerical calculation. Two outstanding questions about these musical transformations are whether pitch and time depend on separate or common processing in IPS, and whether IPS recruitment in melodic tasks varies depending upon the degree of transformation required (as it does in mental rotation). In the present study we sought to answer these questions by applying functional magnetic resonance imaging while musicians performed closely matched mental transposition (pitch transformation) and melody reversal (temporal transformation) tasks. A voxel-wise conjunction analysis showed that in individual subjects, both tasks activated overlapping regions in bilateral IPS, suggesting that a common neural substrate subserves both types of mental transformation. Varying the magnitude of mental pitch transposition resulted in variation of IPS BOLD signal in correlation with the musical key-distance of the transposition, but not with the pitch distance, indicating that the cognitive metric relevant for this type of operation is an abstract one, well described by music-theoretic concepts. These findings support a general role for the IPS in systematically transforming auditory stimulus representations in a nonspatial context. (C) 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Design and Preliminary Results of an Atmospheric-Pressure Model Gas Turbine Combustor Utilizing Varying CO2 Doping Concentration in CH4 to Emulate Biogas Combustion

Utilization of biogas can provide a source of renewable energy in both heat and power generation. Combustion of biogas in land-based gas turbines for power generation is a promising approach to reducing greenhouse gases and US dependence on foreign-source fossil fuels. Biogas is a byproduct from the decomposition of organic matter and consists primarily of CH4 and large amounts of CO2. The focus of this research was to design a combustion device and investigate the effects of increasing levels of CO2 addition to the combustion of pure CH4 with air. Using an atmospheric-pressure, swirl-stabilized dump combustor, emissions data and flame stability limitations were measured and analyzed. In particular, CO2, CO, and NOx emissions were the main focus of the combustion products. Additionally, the occurrence of lean blowout and combustion pressure oscillations, which impose significant limitations in operation ranges for actual gas turbines, was observed. Preliminary kinetic and equilibrium modeling was performed using Cantera and CEA for the CH4/CO2/Air combustion systems to analyze the effect of CO2 upon adiabatic flame temperature and emission levels. The numerical and experimental results show similar dependence of emissions on equivalence ratio, CO2 addition, inlet air temperature, and combustor residence time. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of expectation and caffeine on arousal, well-being, and reaction time

The objective of this study is to determine the impact of expectation associated with placebo and caffeine ingestion. We used a three-armed, randomized, double-blind design. Two three-armed experiments varying instruction (true, false, control) investigated the role of expectations of changes in arousal (blood pressure, heart rate), subjective well-being, and reaction time (RT). In Experiment 1 (N = 45), decaffeinated coffee was administered, and expectations were produced in one group by making them believe they had ingested caffeinated coffee. In Experiment 2 (N = 45), caffeinated orange juice was given in both experimental groups, but only one was informed about the true content. In Experiment 1, a significant effect for subjective alertness was found in the placebo treatment compared to the control group. However, for RT and well-being no significant effects were found. In Experiment 2, no significant expectancy effects were found. Caffeine produced large effects for blood pressure in both treatments compared to the control group, but the effects were larger for the false information group. For subjective well-being (alertness, calmness), considerable but nonsignificant changes were found for correctly informed participants, indicating possible additivity of pharmacologic effect and expectations. The results tentatively indicate that placebo and expectancy effects primarily show through introspection.

Gauss-Seidel Estimation of Generalized Linear Mixed Models with Application to Poisson Modeling of Spatially Varying Disease Rates

Generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) provide an elegant framework for the analysis of correlated data. Due to the non-closed form of the likelihood, GLMMs are often fit by computational procedures like penalized quasi-likelihood (PQL). Special cases of these models are generalized linear models (GLMs), which are often fit using algorithms like iterative weighted least squares (IWLS). High computational costs and memory space constraints often make it difficult to apply these iterative procedures to data sets with very large number of cases. This paper proposes a computationally efficient strategy based on the Gauss-Seidel algorithm that iteratively fits sub-models of the GLMM to subsetted versions of the data. Additional gains in efficiency are achieved for Poisson models, commonly used in disease mapping problems, because of their special collapsibility property which allows data reduction through summaries. Convergence of the proposed iterative procedure is guaranteed for canonical link functions. The strategy is applied to investigate the relationship between ischemic heart disease, socioeconomic status and age/gender category in New South Wales, Australia, based on outcome data consisting of approximately 33 million records. A simulation study demonstrates the algorithm's reliability in analyzing a data set with 12 million records for a (non-collapsible) logistic regression model.

Triggering of volcanic activity by large earthquakes

Statistical analyses of temporal relationships between large earthquakes and volcanic eruptions suggest seismic waves may trigger eruptions even over great (>1000 km) distances, although the causative mechanism is not well constrained. In this study the relationship between large earthquakes and subtle changes in volcanic activity was investigated in order to gain greater insight into the relationship between dynamic stresses propagated by surface waves and volcanic response. Daily measurements from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), onboard the Aura satellite, provide constraints on volcanic sulfur-dioxide (SO2) emission rates as a measure of subtle changes in activity. Time series of SO2 emission rates were produced from OMI data for thirteen persistently active volcanoes from 1 October 2004 to 30 September 2010. In order to quantify the affect of earthquakes at teleseismic distances, we modeled surface-wave amplitudes from the source mechanisms of moment magnitude (Mw) ≥7 earthquakes, and calculated the Peak Dynamic Stress (PDS). We assessed the influence of earthquakes on volcanic activity in two ways: 1) by identifying increases in the SO2 time series data and looking for causative earthquakes and 2) by examining the average emission rate before and after each earthquake. In the first, the SO2 time series for each volcano was used to calculate a baseline threshold for comparison with post-earthquake emission. Next, we generated a catalog of responses based on sustained SO2 emission increases above this baseline. Delay times between each SO2 response and each prior earthquake were analyzed using both the actual earthquake catalog, and a randomly generated catalog of earthquakes. This process was repeated for each volcano. Despite varying multiple parameters, this analysis did not demonstrate a clear relationship between earthquake-generated PDS and SO2 emission. However, the second analysis, which was based on the occurrence of large earthquakes indicated a response at most volcanoes. Using the PDS calculations as a filtering criterion for the earthquake catalog, the SO2 mass for each volcano was analyzed in 28-day windows centered on the earthquake origin time. If the average SO2 mass after the earthquake was greater than an arbitrary percentage of pre-earthquake mass, we identified the volcano as having a response to the event. This window analysis provided insight on what type of volcanic activity is more susceptible to triggering by dynamic stress. The volcanoes with very open systems included in this study, Ambrym, Gaua, Villarrica, Erta Ale and, Turrialba, showed a clear response to dynamic stress while the volcanoes with more closed systems, Merapi, Semeru, Fuego, Pacaya, and Bagana, showed no response.

HIGH PERFORMANCE, LOW COST SUBSPACE DECOMPOSITION AND POLYNOMIAL ROOTING FOR REAL TIME DIRECTION OF ARRIVAL ESTIMATION: ANALYSIS AND IMPLEMENTATION

This thesis develops high performance real-time signal processing modules for direction of arrival (DOA) estimation for localization systems. It proposes highly parallel algorithms for performing subspace decomposition and polynomial rooting, which are otherwise traditionally implemented using sequential algorithms. The proposed algorithms address the emerging need for real-time localization for a wide range of applications. As the antenna array size increases, the complexity of signal processing algorithms increases, making it increasingly difficult to satisfy the real-time constraints. This thesis addresses real-time implementation by proposing parallel algorithms, that maintain considerable improvement over traditional algorithms, especially for systems with larger number of antenna array elements. Singular value decomposition (SVD) and polynomial rooting are two computationally complex steps and act as the bottleneck to achieving real-time performance. The proposed algorithms are suitable for implementation on field programmable gated arrays (FPGAs), single instruction multiple data (SIMD) hardware or application specific integrated chips (ASICs), which offer large number of processing elements that can be exploited for parallel processing. The designs proposed in this thesis are modular, easily expandable and easy to implement. Firstly, this thesis proposes a fast converging SVD algorithm. The proposed method reduces the number of iterations it takes to converge to correct singular values, thus achieving closer to real-time performance. A general algorithm and a modular system design are provided making it easy for designers to replicate and extend the design to larger matrix sizes. Moreover, the method is highly parallel, which can be exploited in various hardware platforms mentioned earlier. A fixed point implementation of proposed SVD algorithm is presented. The FPGA design is pipelined to the maximum extent to increase the maximum achievable frequency of operation. The system was developed with the objective of achieving high throughput. Various modern cores available in FPGAs were used to maximize the performance and details of these modules are presented in detail. Finally, a parallel polynomial rooting technique based on Newton’s method applicable exclusively to root-MUSIC polynomials is proposed. Unique characteristics of root-MUSIC polynomial’s complex dynamics were exploited to derive this polynomial rooting method. The technique exhibits parallelism and converges to the desired root within fixed number of iterations, making this suitable for polynomial rooting of large degree polynomials. We believe this is the first time that complex dynamics of root-MUSIC polynomial were analyzed to propose an algorithm. In all, the thesis addresses two major bottlenecks in a direction of arrival estimation system, by providing simple, high throughput, parallel algorithms.

Reliable gene expression measurements from degraded RNA by quantitative real-time PCR depend on short amplicons and a proper normalization

Quantitative reverse transcriptase real-time PCR (QRT-PCR) is a robust method to quantitate RNA abundance. The procedure is highly sensitive and reproducible as long as the initial RNA is intact. However, breaks in the RNA due to chemical or enzymatic cleavage may reduce the number of RNA molecules that contain intact amplicons. As a consequence, the number of molecules available for amplification decreases. We determined the relation between RNA fragmentation and threshold values (Ct values) in subsequent QRT-PCR for four genes in an experimental model of intact and partially hydrolyzed RNA derived from a cell line and we describe the relation between RNA integrity, amplicon size and Ct values in this biologically homogenous system. We demonstrate that degradation-related shifts of Ct values can be compensated by calculating delta Ct values between test genes and the mean values of several control genes. These delta Ct values are less sensitive to fragmentation of the RNA and are unaffected by varying amounts of input RNA. The feasibility of the procedure was demonstrated by comparing Ct values from a larger panel of genes in intact and in partially degraded RNA. We compared Ct values from intact RNA derived from well-preserved tumor material and from fragmented RNA derived from formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded (FFPE) samples of the same tumors. We demonstrate that the relative abundance of gene expression can be based on FFPE material even when the amount of RNA in the sample and the extent of fragmentation are not known.

Parameter-free extraction of the functional network topology from intracranial EEG recordings: a time-resolved study of graph properties in focal onset seizures

Rationale: Focal onset epileptic seizures are due to abnormal interactions between distributed brain areas. By estimating the cross-correlation matrix of multi-site intra-cerebral EEG recordings (iEEG), one can quantify these interactions. To assess the topology of the underlying functional network, the binary connectivity matrix has to be derived from the cross-correlation matrix by use of a threshold. Classically, a unique threshold is used that constrains the topology [1]. Our method aims to set the threshold in a data-driven way by separating genuine from random cross-correlation. We compare our approach to the fixed threshold method and study the dynamics of the functional topology. Methods: We investigate the iEEG of patients suffering from focal onset seizures who underwent evaluation for the possibility of surgery. The equal-time cross-correlation matrices are evaluated using a sliding time window. We then compare 3 approaches assessing the corresponding binary networks. For each time window: * Our parameter-free method derives from the cross-correlation strength matrix (CCS)[2]. It aims at disentangling genuine from random correlations (due to finite length and varying frequency content of the signals). In practice, a threshold is evaluated for each pair of channels independently, in a data-driven way. * The fixed mean degree (FMD) uses a unique threshold on the whole connectivity matrix so as to ensure a user defined mean degree. * The varying mean degree (VMD) uses the mean degree of the CCS network to set a unique threshold for the entire connectivity matrix. * Finally, the connectivity (c), connectedness (given by k, the number of disconnected sub-networks), mean global and local efficiencies (Eg, El, resp.) are computed from FMD, CCS, VMD, and their corresponding random and lattice networks. Results: Compared to FMD and VMD, CCS networks present: *topologies that are different in terms of c, k, Eg and El. *from the pre-ictal to the ictal and then post-ictal period, topological features time courses that are more stable within a period, and more contrasted from one period to the next. For CCS, pre-ictal connectivity is low, increases to a high level during the seizure, then decreases at offset. k shows a ‘‘U-curve’’ underlining the synchronization of all electrodes during the seizure. Eg and El time courses fluctuate between the corresponding random and lattice networks values in a reproducible manner. Conclusions: The definition of a data-driven threshold provides new insights into the topology of the epileptic functional networks.

Real-Time Joint Coupling of the Spine for Inverse Kinematics

In this paper we propose a simple model for the coupling behavior of the human spine for an inverse kinematics framework. Our spine model exhibits anatomically correct motions of the vertebrae of virtual mannequins by coupling standard swing and revolute joint models. The adjustement of the joints is made with several simple (in)equality constraints, resulting in a reduction of the solution space dimensionality for the inverse kinematics solver. By reducing the solution space dimensionality to feasible spine shapes, we prevent the inverse kinematics algorithm from providing infeasible postures for the spine.In this paper, we exploit how to apply these simple constraints to the human spine by a strict decoupling of the swing and torsion motion of the vertebrae. We demonstrate the validity of our approach on various experiments.

A continuous-time MILP model for short-term scheduling of make-and-pack production processes

In process industries, make-and-pack production is used to produce food and beverages, chemicals, and metal products, among others. This type of production process allows the fabrication of a wide range of products in relatively small amounts using the same equipment. In this article, we consider a real-world production process (cf. Honkomp et al. 2000. The curse of reality – why process scheduling optimization problems are diffcult in practice. Computers & Chemical Engineering, 24, 323–328.) comprising sequence-dependent changeover times, multipurpose storage units with limited capacities, quarantine times, batch splitting, partial equipment connectivity, and transfer times. The planning problem consists of computing a production schedule such that a given demand of packed products is fulfilled, all technological constraints are satisfied, and the production makespan is minimised. None of the models in the literature covers all of the technological constraints that occur in such make-and-pack production processes. To close this gap, we develop an efficient mixed-integer linear programming model that is based on a continuous time domain and general-precedence variables. We propose novel types of symmetry-breaking constraints and a preprocessing procedure to improve the model performance. In an experimental analysis, we show that small- and moderate-sized instances can be solved to optimality within short CPU times.

Intelligence is related to specific processes in visual change detection: Fixed-links modeling of hit rate and reaction time

By means of fixed-links modeling, the present study identified different processes of visual short-term memory (VSTM) functioning and investigated how these processes are related to intelligence. We conducted an experiment where the participants were presented with a color change detection task. Task complexity was manipulated through varying the number of presented stimuli (set size). We collected hit rate and reaction time (RT) as indicators for the amount of information retained in VSTM and speed of VSTM scanning, respectively. Due to the impurity of these measures, however, the variability in hit rate and RT was assumed to consist not only of genuine variance due to individual differences in VSTM retention and VSTM scanning but also of other, non-experimental portions of variance. Therefore, we identified two qualitatively different types of components for both hit rate and RT: (1) non-experimental components representing processes that remained constant irrespective of set size and (2) experimental components reflecting processes that increased as a function of set size. For RT, intelligence was negatively associated with the non-experimental components, but was unrelated to the experimental components assumed to represent variability in VSTM scanning speed. This finding indicates that individual differences in basic processing speed, rather than in speed of VSTM scanning, differentiates between high- and low-intelligent individuals. For hit rate, the experimental component constituting individual differences in VSTM retention was positively related to intelligence. The non-experimental components of hit rate, representing variability in basal processes, however, were not associated with intelligence. By decomposing VSTM functioning into non-experimental and experimental components, significant associations with intelligence were revealed that otherwise might have been obscured.