Regras de preços e efeitos de política monetária e fiscal

Esta tese é composta por três ensaios, dois deles analisam regras de preços e o outro faz uma análise de política fiscal. Cada ensaio forma um capítulo da tese. No primeiro capítulo, acrescentamos heterogeneidade a um modelo de regras de preços endógenas dependentes do tempo para analisar os efeitos reais de uma política de desinflação em um ambiente de credibilidade imperfeita. Inicialmente avaliamos os custos da desinflação em uma economia onde a credibilidade é exógena. Depois, relaxamos essa hipótese permitindo que os agentes atualizem suas crenças sobre o tipo de policymaker com que se deparam. Como resultado, em ambos os casos, a heterogeneidade amplia os efeitos reais de uma política de desinflação. Em seguida, mostramos que o modelo calibrado replica bem, e melhor do que o modelo com homogeneidade entre os agentes, a dinâmica do produto e da inflação durante a política de desinflação de Volcker. O segundo capítulo introduz uma especificação geral para hazard function com que se deparam os price setters. Diferentes especificações da hazard function podem levar a resultados muito distintos da dinâmica agregada da economia, mesmo quando as durações de preços são as mesmas entre diferentes especificações de hazard functions. Este resultado vale tanto para economias homogêneas quanto heterogêneas. O terceiro capítulo analisa os efeitos dos choques de gastos do governo sobre a dinâmica do consumo privado em um modelo DSGE (Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium) Novo-keynesiano com uma pequena economia aberta. Incorporamos ao modelo consumidores não-ricardianos e mostramos que a presença desse tipo de consumidor além de não evitar a queda do consumo privado, a intensifica depois de um curto espaço de tempo. Analisamos também a sensibilidade da dinâmica do consumo a diferentes graus de abertura da economia, a parâmetros de preferências e de políticas.

The effect of financiaI repression & enforcernent on entrepreneurship and economic deveIopment

This paper studies the effect of financiaI repression and contract enforcement on entrepreneurship and economic development. We construct and solve a general equilibrium mo deI with heterogeneous agents, occupational choice and two financiaI frictions: intermediation costs and financiaI contract enforcement. Occupational choice and firm size are determined endogenously, and depend on agent type (wealth and ability) and the credit market frictions. The mo deI shows that differences across countries in intermediation costs and enforcement generate differences in occupational choice, firm size, credit, output and inequality. Counterfactual experiments are performed for Latin American, European, transition and high growth Asian countries. We use empirical estimates of each country's financiaI frictions, and United States values for all other parameters. The results allow us to isolate the quantitative effect of these financiaI frictions in explaining the performance gap between each country and the United States. The results depend critically on whether à general equilibrium factor price effect is operative, which in turn depends on whether financiaI markets are open or closed. This yields a positive policy prescription: If the goal is to maximize steady-state efficiency, financial reforms should be accompanied by measures to increase financiaI capital mobility.

Pricing and hedging of oil futures : a unifying approach

We develop and empirically test a continuous time equilibrium model for the pricing of oil futures. The model provides a link between no-arbitrage models and expectation oriented models. It highlights the role of inventories for the identification of different pricing regimes. In an empirical study the hedging performance of our model is compared with five other one- and two-factor pricing models. The hedging problem considered is related to Metallgesellschaft´s strategy to hedge long-term forward commitments with short-term futures. The results show that the downside risk distribution of our inventory based model stochastically dominates those of the other models.

Sovereign debt with adverse selection : a quantitative approach

We construct a dynamic equilibrium model to quantitatively study sovereign debt with contingent services and country risk spreads such that the benefits of defaulting are tempered by higher interest rates in the future. For a wide range of parameters, the only equilibrium of the model is one in which the sovereign defaults in all states, unless defaulting incurs additional costs. Due to the adverse selection problem, some countries choose to delay default in order to reduce reputation loss. Although equilibria with no default imply in greater welfare levels, they are not sustainable in the highly indebted and volatile countries.

Endogenous borrowing constraints and default when markets are incomplete

Incomplete markets and non-default borrowing constraints increase the volatility of pricing kernels and are helpful when addressing assetpricing puzzles. However, ruling out default when markets are in complete is suboptimal. This paper endogenizes borrowing constraints as an intertemporal incentive structure to default. It modeIs an infinitehorizon economy, where agents are allowed not to pay their liabilities and face borrowing constraints that depend on the individual history of default. Those constraints trade off the economy's risk-sharing possibilities and incentives to prevent default. The equilibrium presents stationary properties, such as an invariant distribution for the assets' solvency rate.

Sobre o custo do tempo para a competitividade da indústria brasileira: diagnóstico e síntese dos impactos econômicos da facilitação do comércio no Brasil

Este artigo analisa a importância dos atrasos portuários para a competitividade da indústria de transformação no Brasil. Com base em estimativas recentes sobre o custo diário dos atrasos comerciais e em bases de dados do Banco Mundial e do GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project), revela a magnitude destas barreiras sob a forma de seus equivalentes ad valorem. Em seguida, por meio de simulações em equilíbrio geral, estima o impacto da melhoria dos processos aduaneiros sobre o desempenho da indústria de transformação no Brasil, sob diferentes cenários. Os resultados obtidos ressaltam o caráter estratégico da facilitação do comércio para o Brasil e da sua inclusão como item relevante para a agenda de crescimento de longo prazo do país

Comparison of non-linear growth models to describe the growth curve in West African Dwarf sheep

The objectives of this study were to compare the goodness of fit of four non-linear growth models, i.e. Brody, Gompertz, Logistic and Von Bertalanffy, in West African Dwarf (WAD) sheep. A total of 5274 monthly weight records from birth up to 180 days of age from 889 lambs, collected during 2001 to 2004 in Betecoucou breeding farm in Benin were used. In the preliminary analysis, the General Linear Model Procedure of the Statistical Analysis Systems Institute was applied to the dataset to identify the significant effects of the sex of lamb (male and female), type of birth (single and twin), season of birth (rainy season and dry season), parity of dam (1, 2 and 3) and year of birth (2001, 2002, 2003 and 2004) on the observed birth weight and monthly weight up to 6 months of age. The models parameters (A, B and k), coefficient of determination (112), mean square error (MSE) were calculated using language of technical computing package Matlab(R), 2006. The mean values of A, B and k were substituted into each model to calculate the corresponding Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC). Among the four growth functions, the Brody model has been selected for its accuracy of fit according to the higher R(2), lower MSE and A/C Finally, the parameters A, B and k were adjusted in Matlab(R) 2006 for the sex of lamb, year of birth, season of birth, birth type and the parity of ewe, providing a specific slope of the Brody growth curve. The results of this study suggest that Brody model can be useful for WAD sheep breeding in Betecoucou farm conditions through growth monitoring.

Estudo e implementação de um controlador preditivo generalizado bilinear compensado adaptativo

The present work presents the study and implementation of an adaptive bilinear compensated generalized predictive controller. This work uses conventional techniques of predictive control and includes techniques of adaptive control for better results. In order to solve control problems frequently found in the chemical industry, bilinear models are considered to represent the dynamics of the studied systems. Bilinear models are simpler than general nonlinear model, however it can to represent the intrinsic not-linearities of industrial processes. The linearization of the model, by the approach to time step quasilinear , is used to allow the application of the equations of the generalized predictive controller (GPC). Such linearization, however, generates an error of prediction, which is minimized through a compensation term. The term in study is implemented in an adaptive form, due to the nonlinear relationship between the input signal and the prediction error.Simulation results show the efficiency of adaptive predictive bilinear controller in comparison with the conventional.

Remoção conjugada de metais e óleo de água produzida

Petroleum can be associated or not with natural gas, but in both cases water is always present in its formation. The presence of water causes several problems, such as the difficulty of removing the petroleum from the reservoir rock and the formation of waterin-oil and oil-in-water emulsions. The produced water causes environmental problems, which should be solved to reduce the effect of petroleum industry in the environment. The main objective of this work is to remove simultaneously from the produced water the dispersed petroleum and dissolved metals. The process is made possible through the use of anionic surfactants that with its hydrophilic heads interacts with ionized metals and with its lipophilic tails interacts with the oil. The studied metals were: calcium, magnesium, barium, and cadmium. The surfactants used in this research were derived from: soy oil, sunflower oil, coconut oil, and a soap obtained from a mixture of 5wt.% coconut oil and 95wt.% animal fat. It was used a sample of produced water from Terminal de São Sebastião, São Paulo. As the concentration of the studied metals in produced water presented values close to 300 mg/L, it was decided to use this concentration as reference for the development of this research. Molecular absorption and atomic absorption spectroscopy were used to determine petroleum and metals concentrations in the water sample, respectively. A constant pressure filtration system was used to promote the separation of solid and liquid phases. To represent the behavior of the studied systems it was developed an equilibrium model and a mathematical one. The obtained results showed that all used surfactants presented similar behavior with relation to metals extraction, being selected the surfactant derived from soy oil for this purpose. The values of the partition coefficients between the solid and liquid phases " D " for the studied metals varied from 0.2 to 1.1, while the coefficients for equilibrium model " K " varied from 0.0002 and 0.0009. The removal percentile for oil with all metals associated was near 100%, showing the efficiency of the process

Determinação experimental e modelagem termodinâmica do ponto de turbidez de sistemas aquosos com tensoativos nonilfenolpolietoxilados

The nonionic surfactants are composed of substances whose molecules in solution, does not ionize. The solubility of these surfactants in water due to the presence of functional groups that have strong affinity for water. When these surfactants are heated is the formation of two liquid phases, evidenced by the phenomenon of turbidity. This study was aimed to determine the experimental temperature and turbidity nonilfenolpoliethoxyled subsequently perform a thermodynamic modeling, considering the models of Flory-Huggins and the empirical solid-liquid equilibrium (SLE). The method used for determining the turbidity point was the visual method (Inoue et al., 2008). The experimental methodology consisted of preparing synthetic solutions of 0,25%, 0,5%, 1%, 2%, 3%, 4%, 5%, 6%, 7%, 8%, 9%, 10%, 12,5%, 15%, 17% and 20% by weight of surfactant. The nonionic surfactants used according to their degree of ethoxylation (9.5, 10, 11, 12 and 13). During the experiments the solutions were homogenized and the bath temperature was gradually increased while the turbidity of the solution temperature was checked visually Inoue et al. (2003). These temperature data of turbidity were used to feed the models evaluated and obtain thermodynamic parameters for systems of surfactants nonilfenolpoliethoxyled. Then the models can be used in phase separation processes, facilitating the extraction of organic solvents, therefore serve as quantitative and qualitative parameters. It was observed that the solidliquid equilibrium model (ESL) was best represented the experimental data.

Interações físicas e psicossociais em mulheres com fibromialgia

Fibromyalgia (FM) is a non-inflammatory rheumatic syndrome of unknown etiology, with symptoms of diffuse musculoskeletal pain and presence of specific anatomic sites called tender points. The symptoms are often associated with fatigue, sleep disturbances, morning stiffness, alterations in pain perception, anxiety and depression. Fibromyalgia exhibits a correlation between physical and behavioral symptoms, which have a negative influence on the quality of life of patients. Emotional skills are important factors since they are related to subjective well-being, personal productivity, social interaction and interpersonal relationships. We aim to describe the physical and psychosocial interactions in women with FM, showing the association between perceived social support and affect with symptoms of pain, functionality and mood. We will also describe a body representation of pain in women with FM. Data were collected over 3 years and the sample size ranged between studies. This is an exploratory cross-sectional study conducted with a convenience sample of 63 women with FM and 42 healthy women as a control group (CT), aged 20-76 years, recruited through spontaneous demand at Onofre Lopes University Hospital (HUOL) and the Clinical School of Physiotherapy of Universidade Potiguar (UNP). The Fibromyalgia Impact Questionnaire (FIQ), Beck Depression Inventory (BDI), Social Support Scale (MOS), Hamilton Anxiety Scale and Scale of Positive and Negative Affect Schedule (PANAS), in addition to pressure algometry were used. For data analysis, we used parametric and non-parametric tests and a general linear model with adjustment variables and analysis of variance. A significant difference was found between pain threshold and tolerance, functionality, depression, anxiety, social support, and positive and negative affect between the groups. Affective states and social support were associated with anxiety, depression and functionality. A body was drawn representing pain with higher incidences in trapeze, supraspinatus and second ribs. The reason for studying sensory aspects, affective behavior and social support in FM patients opens perspectives for scientific and clinical research of this syndrome. Women with chronic pain such as FM appear to have altered mood states, less social support and affective dysfunctions, influencing the other symptoms of the syndrome

Effects of GHR gene polymorphisms on growth and carcass traits in Zebu and crossbred beef cattle

The growth hormone receptor (GHR) is the cell surface receptor for growth hormone (GH) and is required for GH to carry out its effects on target tissues. The objectives of the present study were to estimate the allele and genotype frequencies of the GHR/Alu I gene polymorphism located in the regulatory region in beef cattle belonging to different genetic groups and to determine associations between this polymorphism and growth and carcass traits. Genotyping was performed on 384 animals, including 79 Nellore (Zebu), 30 Canchim (5/8 Charolais+3/8 Zebu), 30 Simmental X Nellore crossbred and 245 Angus x Nellore crossbred cattle. Alleles Alu I(+), Alu I(-) and Alu I(N)-null allele-were evidenced for the GHR/Alu I polymorphism and the frequency of the Alu I(N) allele was significantly higher than the frequency of the Alu I(+) and Alu I(-) alleles in all genetic groups. Genotype Alu I(N/N) of the GHRIAlu I predominated in Nellore animals, while the Alu I(N/+) and Alu I(N/-) predominated in the other genetic groups. In the association studies, traits of interest were analyzed using the General Linear Model (GLM) procedure of the SAS program and least squares means of the genotypes were compared by the Tukey test. Significant associations (P < 0.05) were observed between the Alu I(N/N) genotype of the GHRIAlu I polymorphism and lower weight gain and body weight at slaughter, although a confounding between genotypes and genetic groups may have occurred. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Candidate SNPs for carcass and meat traits in Nelore animals and in their crosses with Bos taurus

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Associations between LEP, DGAT1 and FABP4 gene polymorphisms and carcass and meat traits in Nelore and crossbred beef cattle

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)