Predicting reptile distributions at the mesoscale: relation to climate and topography

Aim To explore the respective power of climate and topography to predict the distribution of reptiles in Switzerland, hence at a mesoscale level. A more detailed knowledge of these relationships, in combination with maps of the potential distribution derived from the models, is a valuable contribution to the design of conservation strategies. Location All of Switzerland. Methods Generalized linear models are used to derive predictive habitat distribution models from eco-geographical predictors in a geographical information system, using species data from a field survey conducted between 1980 and 1999. Results The maximum amount of deviance explained by climatic models is 65%, and 50% by topographical models. Low values were obtained with both sets of predictors for three species that are widely distributed in all parts of the country (Anguis fragilis , Coronella austriaca , and Natrix natrix), a result that suggests that including other important predictors, such as resources, should improve the models in further studies. With respect to topographical predictors, low values were also obtained for two species where we anticipated a strong response to aspect and slope, Podarcis muralis and Vipera aspis . Main conclusions Overall, both models and maps derived from climatic predictors more closely match the actual reptile distributions than those based on topography. These results suggest that the distributional limits of reptile species with a restricted range in Switzerland are largely set by climatic, predominantly temperature-related, factors.

Prospective evaluation of risk of vertebral fractures using quantitative ultrasound measurements and bone mineral density in a population-based sample of postmenopausal women: results of the Basel Osteoporosis Study.

OBJECTIVE: Prospective studies have shown that quantitative ultrasound (QUS) techniques predict the risk of fracture of the proximal femur with similar standardised risk ratios to dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA). Few studies have investigated these devices for the prediction of vertebral fractures. The Basel Osteoporosis Study (BOS) is a population-based prospective study to assess the performance of QUS devices and DXA in predicting incident vertebral fractures. METHODS: 432 women aged 60-80 years were followed-up for 3 years. Incident vertebral fractures were assessed radiologically. Bone measurements using DXA (spine and hip) and QUS measurements (calcaneus and proximal phalanges) were performed. Measurements were assessed for their value in predicting incident vertebral fractures using logistic regression. RESULTS: QUS measurements at the calcaneus and DXA measurements discriminated between women with and without incident vertebral fracture, (20% height reduction). The relative risks (RRs) for vertebral fracture, adjusted for age, were 2.3 for the Stiffness Index (SI) and 2.8 for the Quantitative Ultrasound Index (QUI) at the calcaneus and 2.0 for bone mineral density at the lumbar spine. The predictive value (AUC (95% CI)) of QUS measurements at the calcaneus remained highly significant (0.70 for SI, 0.72 for the QUI, and 0.67 for DXA at the lumbar spine) even after adjustment for other confounding variables. CONCLUSIONS: QUS of the calcaneus and bone mineral density measurements were shown to be significant predictors of incident vertebral fracture. The RRs for QUS measurements at the calcaneus are of similar magnitude as for DXA measurements.

The distribution of Biomphalaria spp. in different habitats in relation to physical, biological, water contact and cognitive factors in a rural area in Minas Gerais, Brazil

A total of 256 sites in 11 habitats were surveyed for Biomphalaria in Melquiades rural area (State of Minas Gerais) in August and November 1999 and in March 2000. Of the 1,780 Biomphalaria collected, 1,721 (96.7%) were B. glabrata and 59 (3.3%) B. straminea. Snails were found in all habitats except in wells, with the largest mean numbers in tanks, seepage ponds and canals, and the smallest numbers in springs, rice fields and fishponds. People's knowledge of the occurrence of Biomphalaria at the collection sites and the presence of Biomphalaria ova were strongly correlated with the occurrence of snails, and distance between houses and collection sites, as well as water velocity were inversely correlated with Biomphalaria occurrence (p < 0.001). The strongest predictor o f Biomphalaria occurrence was the presence of tilapia fish in fishponds. Fourteen Biomphalaria (0.8% of all snails) found at 6 sites were infected with Schistosoma mansoni. Suggestions are made for the utilization of local people's knowledge in snail surveys and further studies are recommended on the possible use of tilapia for biological control of Biomphalaria in fishponds, as well as modeling of S. mansoni transmission and reinfection.

Literature Review: Equality of Opportunity in Relation to the DHSSPS Draft Equality Scheme

This review of the literature on equality of opportunity issues was commissioned by the Department of Public Health, Social Sevices and Public Safety.

Multiple-scale hydrological and geophysical data integration through non-linear Bayesian sequential simulation

Significant progress has been made with regard to the quantitative integration of geophysical and hydrological data at the local scale. However, extending the corresponding approaches to the scale of a field site represents a major, and as-of-yet largely unresolved, challenge. To address this problem, we have developed downscaling procedure based on a non-linear Bayesian sequential simulation approach. The main objective of this algorithm is to estimate the value of the sparsely sampled hydraulic conductivity at non-sampled locations based on its relation to the electrical conductivity logged at collocated wells and surface resistivity measurements, which are available throughout the studied site. The in situ relationship between the hydraulic and electrical conductivities is described through a non-parametric multivariatekernel density function. Then a stochastic integration of low-resolution, large-scale electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) data in combination with high-resolution, local-scale downhole measurements of the hydraulic and electrical conductivities is applied. The overall viability of this downscaling approach is tested and validated by comparing flow and transport simulation through the original and the upscaled hydraulic conductivity fields. Our results indicate that the proposed procedure allows obtaining remarkably faithful estimates of the regional-scale hydraulic conductivity structure and correspondingly reliable predictions of the transport characteristics over relatively long distances.

Relation between Hepatitis B Carrier Status and Antibody against Synthetic Plasmodium falciparum Erythrocyte Surface (pf155 - RESA) Antigen

A survey on Plasmodium infection was carried out in gold mine camps located in the Brazilian Amazon. Antibody against P. falciparum ring-infected erythrocyte surface antigen (RESA) was quantified by an enzyme-immunoassay in order to assess P. falciparum exposure. Hepatitis B, a common infection in this area, was also investigated by serologic markers. Among 520 sampled subjects, 517 (99.4%) admitted previous symptomatic malaria, 106 (20.4%) had positive thick smears for malaria, 82.9% had HBV markers, and 7.1% were HBsAg positive. Anti-RESA titers was significantly lower in HBV carriers than in people with resolved HBV infection suggesting that the anti-RESA immune response could be supressed by HBV carrier status. Moreover, immunedeficient responses to both infections may take place in some subjects causing concomitant lower anti-RESA response and incapacity to clear HBV.

Mondialisation et sociétés plurielles ou comment penser la relation entre santé et migration

Si la maladie relève de l'individuel, la santé, elle, participe du collectif et constitue aujourd'hui un enjeu de société et un analyseur du social qui s'inscrit au coeur du questionnement anthropologique. Devenue valeur de référence, elle se définit comme une construction socialement et politiquement élaborée dont les limites sont constamment rediscutées. Ce processus se déploie dans un contexte sans précédent dans l'histoire de l'humanité. En effet, nous sommes actuellement les témoins aussi bien que les acteurs de mutations Inédites et fondamentales: la mondialisation en cours, qui se caractérise par l'émergence simultanée de diverses innovations sociales et culturelles s'accompagne d'un changement de références considérable. Cette évolution transforme la logique de l'offre et de la demande, tout particulièrement en ce qui concerne la problématique santé et migration. Dans cette perspective, la prise en charge des requérants d'asile doit s'accompagner d'une analyse des fins politiques, éthiques et culturelles sous-jacentes à la crise et aux solutions recherchées dans les systèmes de santé.

Amplification efficiency: linking baseline and bias in the analysis of quantitative PCR data.

Despite the central role of quantitative PCR (qPCR) in the quantification of mRNA transcripts, most analyses of qPCR data are still delegated to the software that comes with the qPCR apparatus. This is especially true for the handling of the fluorescence baseline. This article shows that baseline estimation errors are directly reflected in the observed PCR efficiency values and are thus propagated exponentially in the estimated starting concentrations as well as 'fold-difference' results. Because of the unknown origin and kinetics of the baseline fluorescence, the fluorescence values monitored in the initial cycles of the PCR reaction cannot be used to estimate a useful baseline value. An algorithm that estimates the baseline by reconstructing the log-linear phase downward from the early plateau phase of the PCR reaction was developed and shown to lead to very reproducible PCR efficiency values. PCR efficiency values were determined per sample by fitting a regression line to a subset of data points in the log-linear phase. The variability, as well as the bias, in qPCR results was significantly reduced when the mean of these PCR efficiencies per amplicon was used in the calculation of an estimate of the starting concentration per sample.

Community ecology of the metazoan parasites of pink cusk-eel, Genypterus brasiliensis (Osteichthyes: Ophidiidae), from the coastal zone of the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Fifty-five specimens of pink cusk-eel, Genypterus brasiliensis Regan, 1903 (Osteichthyes: Ophidiidae) collected from the coastal zone of the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (approx. 21-23°S, 41-45°W), from September 2000 to January 2001, were necropsied to study their parasites. All fish were parasitized by one or more metazoan. Fourteen species of parasites were collected. G. brasiliensis is a new host record for nine parasite species. The larval stages of cestodes and the nematodes were the majority of the parasite specimens collected, with 38.4% and 36.5%, respectively. Cucullanus genypteri was the dominant species with highest prevalence and/or abundance. The parasites of G. brasiliensis showed the typical overdispersed pattern of distribution. Six parasite species showed correlation between the host's total body length and prevalence and abundance. Host sex did not influence prevalence and parasite abundance of any parasite species. The mean diversity in the infracommunities of G. brasiliensis was H= 0.364 ± 0.103, with correlation with the host's total length and without differences in relation to sex of the host. One pair of adult endoparasites (C. genypteri and A. brasiliensis) showed positive covariations between their abundances. Negative association or covariation was not found. Differences between the qualitative and quantitative aspects of the parasite community of G. brasiliensis from Rio de Janeiro and Argentina suggest the existence of two population stocks of pink cusk-eel in the South America Atlantic Ocean.

Ochlerotatus albifasciatus in rain pools of Buenos Aires: seasonal dynamics and relation to environmental variables

The immature stages of Ochlerotatus albifasciatus develop in temporary pools. The present study aims at evaluating the seasonal dynamics of the aquatic stages of this mosquito, also analyzing the relationship among their presence and breeding success to some relevant climatic and environmental variables in the ephemeral rain pools of an urban park. Nineteen cohorts of O. albifasciatus that developed synchronously after rain events were recorded in all seasons. The proportions of mosquito-positive pools were significantly higher during the fall-winter period than in the spring-summer months (p < 0.001). The presence of this mosquito species was positively related to the amount of rain (p < 0.001), whereas negatively correlated to air temperature (p < 0.05) within a 5.2 to 29.7ºC range. The distribution of the number of cohorts per pool throughout the year was grouped (variance/mean: 3.96), indicating that these habitats were not equally suitable as breeding sites. The immature stages of O. albifasciatus were detected in pools belonging to all of the categories of surface area, depth, duration, vegetation cover, and insolation. However, the proportion of pools where immature mosquitoes were detected was positively and significantly related to surface, depth, duration, and vegetation cover. On the other hand, the proportion of mosquito-positive pools was higher at an intermediate insolation degree. Our results suggest that although preimaginal stages were present in all seasons, high temperatures may be unfavorable to larval development, and substrate vegetation may regulate water temperature. The positive relationship between the proportion of mosquito-positive pools and pool size and duration might reflect a strategy of O. albifasciatus to accomplish immature development.

Older People's Preferences for Employment and Retirement Study

The research provides for the first time a national representative quantitative review of the experiences and preferences of older people in relation to employment and retirement. The research allows a wide range of men andwomen, between the ages of 55 and 69 years from a variety of backgrounds and employment status, to offer their perspectives on work and retirement and their preferences for participation and non-participation in the labour force Download the Report here

Chronology of Events in relation to Organ Retention Inquiry

  Mid 1999 Investigation into cardiac surgery practice on children at Bristol Royal Infirmary. Dec 1999 Inquiry into organ retention in Alder Hey Children’s Hospital in Liverpool. May 1999: Contact from Our Lady’s Hosptial Crumlin re pathology and post mortem practice Dec 1999 PFJ meetings with Minister Apr 2000: Government Decision setting up Inquiry. Apr 2000: Ms Anne Dunne appointed Chairman. Feb 2001: Public Notice published, setting out terms of reference of Inquiry and inviting submissions. Mar 2001: Terms of Reference and Interpretation Published. Contact invited. “Six months N/A. Now 18 months” Jun 2001: Department commenced Discovery. Aug 2001: Memorandum on procedures received in Department. Sept 2002: 18 months time-frame had expired. Minister requested a meeting with Ms Anne Dunne. This happened in early September – Minister requested a progress report. 2 Oct 02 Ms Dunne’s progress report received by Minister – although substantial progress no definitive timeframe for completion of her work – a lot more work outstanding. Co-operation forthcoming from all parties 16 Oct 2002: Minister’s meeting with Parents for Justice – he assured them of his commitment to resolve any difficulties, but they decided to withdraw from the Inquiry process 2004: Minister calls on PFJ to co-operate. Chairman informs Minister that she has sufficient involvement of parents to conclude her report. Minister expects paediatric report by the end of the year