Satellite Rainfall Estimates Over South America - Possible Applicability to the Water Management of Large Watersheds1

This work analyzes high-resolution precipitation data from satellite-derived rainfall estimates over South America, especially over the Amazon Basin. The goal is to examine whether satellite-derived precipitation estimates can be used in hydrology and in the management of larger watersheds of South America. High spatial-temporal resolution precipitation estimates obtained with the CMORPH method serve this purpose while providing an additional hydrometeorological perspective on the convective regime over South America and its predictability. CMORPH rainfall estimates at 8-km spatial resolution for 2003 and 2004 were compared with available rain gauge measurements at daily, monthly, and yearly accumulation time scales. The results show the correlation between satellite-derived and gauge-measured precipitation increases with accumulation period from daily to monthly, especially during the rainy season. Time-longitude diagrams of CMORPH hourly rainfall show the genesis, strength, longevity, and phase speed of convective systems. Hourly rainfall analyses indicate that convection over the Amazon region is often more organized than previously thought, thus inferring that basin scale predictions of rainfall for hydrological and water management purposes have the potential to become more skillful. Flow estimates based on CMORPH and the rain gauge network are compared to long-term observed average flow. The results suggest this satellite-based rainfall estimation technique has considerable utility. Other statistics for monthly accumulations also suggest CMORPH can be an important source of rainfall information at smaller spatial scales where in situ observations are lacking.

Effects of detectability on estimates of geographic range size in bignonieae

Extinction risk has not been evaluated for 96% of all described plant species. Given that the Global Strategy for Plant Conservation proposes preliminary conservation assessments of all described plant species by 2010, herbarium specimens (i.e., primary occurrence data) are increasingly being used to infer threat components from estimates of geographic range size. Nevertheless, estimates of range size based on herbarium data may be inaccurate due to collection bias associated with interspecific variation in detectability. We used data on 377 species of Bignonieae to test the hypothesis that there is a positive relationship between detectability and estimates of geographic range size derived from herbarium specimens. This relationship is expected if the proportion of the true geographic range size of a species that is documented by herbarium specimens is given by the product of the true geographic range size and the detectability of the species, assuming no relationship between true geographic range size and detectability. We developed 4 measures of detectability that can be estimated from herbarium data and examined the relationship between detectability and 2 types of estimates of geographic range size: area of occupancy and extent of occurrence. Our results from regressing estimates of extent of occurrence and area of occupancy on detectability across genera provided no support for this hypothesis. The same was true for regressions of estimated extent of occurrence on detectability across species within genera. Nevertheless, regressions of estimated area of occupancy on detectability across species within genera provided partial support for our hypothesis. We considered 3 possible explanations for this mixed outcome: violation of the assumption of no relationship between true geographic range size and detectability; the relationships between estimated geographic range size and detectability may be an artifact of a negative relationship between estimated area of occupancy and the sampling variance of detectability; detectability may have had 2 opposite effects on estimated species range sizes: one determines the proportion of the true range of a species documented by herbarium specimens and the other determines the distribution of true range size for the species actually observed with herbarium data. Our findings should help improve understanding of the potential biases incurred with the use of herbarium data.

The impact of fragmentation and density regulation on forest succession in the Atlantic rain forest

The Atlantic Rain Forest, an important biodiversity hot spot, has faced severe habitat loss since the last century which has resulted in a highly fragmented landscape with a large number of small forest patches (<100 ha). For conservation planning it is essential to understand how current and future forest regeneration depends on ecological processes, fragment size and the connection to the regional seed pool. We have investigated the following questions by applying the forest growth simulation model FORMIND to the situation of the Atlantic Forest in the state of Sao Paulo, SE Brazil: (1) which set of parameters describing the local regeneration and level of density regulation can reproduce the biomass distribution and stem density of an old growth forest in a reserve? (2) Which additional processes apart from those describing the dynamics of an old growth forest, drive forest succession of small isolated fragments? (3) Which role does external seed input play during succession? Therefore, more than 300 tree species have been classified into nine plant functional types (PFTs), which are characterized by maximum potential height and shade tolerance. We differentiate between two seed dispersal modes: (i) local dispersal, i.e. all seedlings originated from fertile trees within the simulated area and (ii) external seed rain. Local seed dispersal has been parameterized following the pattern oriented approach, using biomass estimates of old growth forest. We have found that moderate density regulation is essential to achieve coexistence for a broad range of regeneration parameters. Considering the expected uncertainty and variability in the regeneration processes it is important that the forest dynamics are robust to variations in the regeneration parameters. Furthermore, edge effects such as increased mortality at the border and external seed rain have been necessary to reproduce the patterns for small isolated fragments. Overall, simulated biomass is much lower in the fragments compared to the continuous forest, whereas shade tolerant species are affected most strongly by fragmentation. Our simulations can supplement empirical studies by extrapolating local knowledge on edge effects of fragments to larger temporal and spatial scales. In particular our results show the importance of external seed rain and therefore highlight the importance of structural connectivity between regenerating fragments and mature forest stands. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Do individuals in better condition survive for longer? Field survival estimates according to male alternative reproductive tactics and sex

There is a gap in terms of the supposed survival differences recorded in the field according to individual condition. This is partly due to our inability to assess survival in the wild. Here we applied modern statistical techniques to field-gathered data in two damselfly species whose males practice alternative reproductive tactics (ARTs) and whose indicators of condition in both sexes are known. In Paraphlebia zoe, there are two ART: a larger black-winged (BW) male which defends mating territories and a smaller hyaline-winged (HW) male that usually acts as a satellite. In this species, condition in both morphs is correlated with body size. In Calopteryx haemorrhoidalis, males follow tactics according to their condition with males in better condition practicing a territorial ART. In addition, in this species, condition correlates positively with wing pigmentation in both sexes. Our prediction for both species was that males practicing the territorial tactic will survive less longer than males using a nonterritorial tactic, and larger or more pigmented animals will survive for longer. In P. zoe, BW males survived less than females but did not differ from HW males, and not necessarily larger individuals survived for longer. In fact, size affected survival but only when group identity was analysed, showing a positive relationship in females and a slightly negative relationship in both male morphs. For C. haemorrhoidalis, survival was larger for more pigmented males and females, but size was not a good survival predictor. Our results partially confirm assumptions based on the maintenance of ARTs. Our results also indicate that female pigmentation, correlates with a fitness component - survival - as proposed by recent sexual selection ideas applied to females.

Development of an adenoviral vector with robust expression driven by p53

Here we introduce a new adenoviral vector where transgene expression is driven by p53. We first developed a synthetic promoter, referred to as PGTx beta containing a p53-responsive element, a minimal promoter and the first intron of the rabbit P-globin gene. Initial assays using plasmid-based vectors indicated that expression was tightly controlled by p53 and was 5-fold stronger than the constitutive CMV immediate early promoter/enhancer. The adenoviral vector, AdPG, was also shown to offer p53-responsive expression in prostate carcinoma cells LNCaP (wt p53), DU-145 (temperature sensitive mutant of p53) and PC3 (p53-null, but engineered to express temperature-sensitive p53 mutants). AdPG served as a sensor of p53 activity in LNCaP cells treated with chemotherapeutic agents. Since p53 can be induced by radiotherapy and chemotherapy, this new vector could be further developed for use in combination with conventional therapies to bring about cooperation between the genetic and pharmacologic treatment modalities. (c) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Gene optimization leads to robust expression of human respiratory syncytial virus nucleoprotein and phosphoprotein in human cells and induction of humoral immunity in mice

Human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV) is the major pathogen leading to respiratory disease in infants and neonates worldwide. An effective vaccine has not yet been developed against this virus, despite considerable efforts in basic and clinical research. HRSV replication is independent of the nuclear RNA processing constraints, since the virus genes are adapted to the cytoplasmic transcription, a process performed by the viral RNA-dependent RNA polymerase. This study shows that meaningful nuclear RNA polymerase II dependent expression of the HRSV nucleoprotein (N) and phosphoprotein (F) proteins can only be achieved with the optimization of their genes, and that the intracellular localization of N and P proteins changes when they are expressed out of the virus replication context. Immunization tests performed in mice resulted in the induction of humoral immunity using the optimized genes. This result was not observed for the non-optimized genes. In conclusion, optimization is a valuable tool for improving expression of HRSV genes in DNA vaccines. (c) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Robust linear mixed models with skew-normal independent distributions from a Bayesian perspective

Linear mixed models were developed to handle clustered data and have been a topic of increasing interest in statistics for the past 50 years. Generally. the normality (or symmetry) of the random effects is a common assumption in linear mixed models but it may, sometimes, be unrealistic, obscuring important features of among-subjects variation. In this article, we utilize skew-normal/independent distributions as a tool for robust modeling of linear mixed models under a Bayesian paradigm. The skew-normal/independent distributions is an attractive class of asymmetric heavy-tailed distributions that includes the skew-normal distribution, skew-t, skew-slash and the skew-contaminated normal distributions as special cases, providing an appealing robust alternative to the routine use of symmetric distributions in this type of models. The methods developed are illustrated using a real data set from Framingham cholesterol study. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Robust tori in a double-waved Hamiltonian model

A Hamiltonian system perturbed by two waves with particular wave numbers can present robust tori, which are barriers created by the vanishing of the perturbed Hamiltonian at some defined positions. When robust tori exist, any trajectory in phase space passing close to them is blocked by emergent invariant curves that prevent the chaotic transport. Our results indicate that the considered particular solution for the two waves Hamiltonian model shows plenty of robust tori blocking radial transport. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The non-twist standard map with robust tori

The non-twist standard map occurs frequently in many fields of science specially in modelling the dynamics of the magnetic field lines in tokamaks. Robust tori, dynamical barriers that impede the radial transport among different regions of the phase space, are introduced in the non-twist standard map in a conservative fashion. The resulting non-twist standard map with robust tori is an improved model to study transport barriers in plasmas confined in tokamaks.

Plasma confinement in tokamaks with robust torus

We present a non-linear symplectic map that describes the alterations of the magnetic field lines inside the tokamak plasma due to the presence of a robust torus (RT) at the plasma edge. This RT prevents the magnetic field lines from reaching the tokamak wall and reduces, in its vicinity, the islands and invariant curve destruction due to resonant perturbations. The map describes the equilibrium magnetic field lines perturbed by resonances created by ergodic magnetic limiters (EMLs). We present the results obtained for twist and non-twist mappings derived for monotonic and non-monotonic plasma current density radial profiles, respectively. Our results indicate that the RT implementation would decrease the field line transport at the tokamak plasma edge. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Analysis and risk estimates to workers of Brazilian granitic industries and sandblasters exposed to respirable crystalline silica and natural radionuclides

Occupational exposure to respirable crystalline silica and to radiation emitted by natural radionuclides present both in rocks and sands was studied in the Brazilian extractive process and granite product manufacture. Respirable airborne dust samples were collected in working environments, where workers perform different tasks with distinct commercial granites types, and also in places where sandblasters work with sands from different origins. The free crystalline silica contents were determined using X-ray diffraction of the respirable particulate fraction of each sample. Dust samples from granite cutting and sandblasting ambient had the natural radionuclides concentrations measured by gamma spectrometry. Dust concentrations in the workplaces were quite variable, reaching values up to 10 times higher than the respirable particle mass threshold limit value (TLV) set by the American Conference for Governmental Industrial Hygienists of 3 mg m(-3). Also the free crystalline silica concentrations were high. reaching values up to 48 times the TLV of 0.025 mg m(-3). Additionally, our results suggest that the risk of radiation-induced cancer in the granite or marble industries is negligible. However, the combined exposure to dust, gamma radiation, and radon daughter products could result in the enhancement of lung cancer risks associated to sandblasting activities. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A new class of survival regression models with heavy-tailed errors: robustness and diagnostics

Birnbaum-Saunders models have largely been applied in material fatigue studies and reliability analyses to relate the total time until failure with some type of cumulative damage. In many problems related to the medical field, such as chronic cardiac diseases and different types of cancer, a cumulative damage caused by several risk factors might cause some degradation that leads to a fatigue process. In these cases, BS models can be suitable for describing the propagation lifetime. However, since the cumulative damage is assumed to be normally distributed in the BS distribution, the parameter estimates from this model can be sensitive to outlying observations. In order to attenuate this influence, we present in this paper BS models, in which a Student-t distribution is assumed to explain the cumulative damage. In particular, we show that the maximum likelihood estimates of the Student-t log-BS models attribute smaller weights to outlying observations, which produce robust parameter estimates. Also, some inferential results are presented. In addition, based on local influence and deviance component and martingale-type residuals, a diagnostics analysis is derived. Finally, a motivating example from the medical field is analyzed using log-BS regression models. Since the parameter estimates appear to be very sensitive to outlying and influential observations, the Student-t log-BS regression model should attenuate such influences. The model checking methodologies developed in this paper are used to compare the fitted models.

Efficient solutions to robust, semi-implicit discretizations of the immersed boundary method

The immersed boundary method is a versatile tool for the investigation of flow-structure interaction. In a large number of applications, the immersed boundaries or structures are very stiff and strong tangential forces on these interfaces induce a well-known, severe time-step restriction for explicit discretizations. This excessive stability constraint can be removed with fully implicit or suitable semi-implicit schemes but at a seemingly prohibitive computational cost. While economical alternatives have been proposed recently for some special cases, there is a practical need for a computationally efficient approach that can be applied more broadly. In this context, we revisit a robust semi-implicit discretization introduced by Peskin in the late 1970s which has received renewed attention recently. This discretization, in which the spreading and interpolation operators are lagged. leads to a linear system of equations for the inter-face configuration at the future time, when the interfacial force is linear. However, this linear system is large and dense and thus it is challenging to streamline its solution. Moreover, while the same linear system or one of similar structure could potentially be used in Newton-type iterations, nonlinear and highly stiff immersed structures pose additional challenges to iterative methods. In this work, we address these problems and propose cost-effective computational strategies for solving Peskin`s lagged-operators type of discretization. We do this by first constructing a sufficiently accurate approximation to the system`s matrix and we obtain a rigorous estimate for this approximation. This matrix is expeditiously computed by using a combination of pre-calculated values and interpolation. The availability of a matrix allows for more efficient matrix-vector products and facilitates the design of effective iterative schemes. We propose efficient iterative approaches to deal with both linear and nonlinear interfacial forces and simple or complex immersed structures with tethered or untethered points. One of these iterative approaches employs a splitting in which we first solve a linear problem for the interfacial force and then we use a nonlinear iteration to find the interface configuration corresponding to this force. We demonstrate that the proposed approach is several orders of magnitude more efficient than the standard explicit method. In addition to considering the standard elliptical drop test case, we show both the robustness and efficacy of the proposed methodology with a 2D model of a heart valve. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Robust, Fully Adaptive Hybrid Level-Set/Front-Tracking Method for Two-Phase Flows with an Accurate Surface Tension Computation

We present a variable time step, fully adaptive in space, hybrid method for the accurate simulation of incompressible two-phase flows in the presence of surface tension in two dimensions. The method is based on the hybrid level set/front-tracking approach proposed in [H. D. Ceniceros and A. M. Roma, J. Comput. Phys., 205, 391400, 2005]. Geometric, interfacial quantities are computed from front-tracking via the immersed-boundary setting while the signed distance (level set) function, which is evaluated fast and to machine precision, is used as a fluid indicator. The surface tension force is obtained by employing the mixed Eulerian/Lagrangian representation introduced in [S. Shin, S. I. Abdel-Khalik, V. Daru and D. Juric, J. Comput. Phys., 203, 493-516, 2005] whose success for greatly reducing parasitic currents has been demonstrated. The use of our accurate fluid indicator together with effective Lagrangian marker control enhance this parasitic current reduction by several orders of magnitude. To resolve accurately and efficiently sharp gradients and salient flow features we employ dynamic, adaptive mesh refinements. This spatial adaption is used in concert with a dynamic control of the distribution of the Lagrangian nodes along the fluid interface and a variable time step, linearly implicit time integration scheme. We present numerical examples designed to test the capabilities and performance of the proposed approach as well as three applications: the long-time evolution of a fluid interface undergoing Rayleigh-Taylor instability, an example of bubble ascending dynamics, and a drop impacting on a free interface whose dynamics we compare with both existing numerical and experimental data.

Curvature Estimates for Submanifolds in Warped Products

We give estimates of the intrinsic and the extrinsic curvature of manifolds that are isometrically immersed as cylindrically bounded submanifolds of warped products. We also address extensions of the results in the case of submanifolds of the total space of a Riemannian submersion.