Majority versus minority influence and prediction of behavioral intentions and behavior

Two experiments examined the effects of majority and minority influence on attitude-consistent behavioral intentions. In the first experiment, when attitudes were changed via minority influence there was a greater likelihood to engage in an attitude-consistent behavioral intention than when attitudes were changed via majority influence. This suggests that minority influence leads to stronger attitudes (based on systematic processing) that are more predictive of behavioral intentions, while attitude change via majority influence is due to compliance through non-systematic processing. Further support for this interpretation comes from the finding that the amount of message-congruent elaboration mediated behavioral intention. When there was no attitude change, there was no impact on behavioral intention to engage in an attitude-consistent behavior. Experiment 2 explored the role of personal relevance of the topic and also included a real behavioral measure. When the topic was of low personal relevance, the same pattern was found as Experiment 1. When the topic was of high personal relevance, thus increasing the motivation to engage in systematic processing, attitudes changed by both a majority and minority source increased behavioral intention and actual behavior. The results are consistent with the view that both majorities and minorities can lead to different processes and consequences under different situations. © 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Emulation of random output simulators

Computer models, or simulators, are widely used in a range of scientific fields to aid understanding of the processes involved and make predictions. Such simulators are often computationally demanding and are thus not amenable to statistical analysis. Emulators provide a statistical approximation, or surrogate, for the simulators accounting for the additional approximation uncertainty. This thesis develops a novel sequential screening method to reduce the set of simulator variables considered during emulation. This screening method is shown to require fewer simulator evaluations than existing approaches. Utilising the lower dimensional active variable set simplifies subsequent emulation analysis. For random output, or stochastic, simulators the output dispersion, and thus variance, is typically a function of the inputs. This work extends the emulator framework to account for such heteroscedasticity by constructing two new heteroscedastic Gaussian process representations and proposes an experimental design technique to optimally learn the model parameters. The design criterion is an extension of Fisher information to heteroscedastic variance models. Replicated observations are efficiently handled in both the design and model inference stages. Through a series of simulation experiments on both synthetic and real world simulators, the emulators inferred on optimal designs with replicated observations are shown to outperform equivalent models inferred on space-filling replicate-free designs in terms of both model parameter uncertainty and predictive variance.

Prediction of the equilibrium structures and photomagnetic properties of the Prussian blue analogue RbMn[Fe(CN)6] by density functional theory

A periodic density functional theory method using the B3LYP hybrid exchange-correlation potential is applied to the Prussian blue analogue RbMn[Fe(CN)6] to evaluate the suitability of the method for studying, and predicting, the photomagnetic behavior of Prussian blue analogues and related materials. The method allows correct description of the equilibrium structures of the different electronic configurations with regard to the cell parameters and bond distances. In agreement with the experimental data, the calculations have shown that the low-temperature phase (LT; Fe(2+)(t(6)2g, S = 0)-CN-Mn(3+)(t(3)2g e(1)g, S = 2)) is the stable phase at low temperature instead of the high-temperature phase (HT; Fe(3+)(t(5)2g, S = 1/2)-CN-Mn(2+)(t(3)2g e(2)g, S = 5/2)). Additionally, the method gives an estimation for the enthalpy difference (HT LT) with a value of 143 J mol(-1) K(-1). The comparison of our calculations with experimental data from the literature and from our calorimetric and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy measurements on the Rb0.97Mn[Fe(CN)6]0.98 x 1.03 H2O compound is analyzed, and in general, a satisfactory agreement is obtained. The method also predicts the metastable nature of the electronic configuration of the high-temperature phase, a necessary condition to photoinduce that phase at low temperatures. It gives a photoactivation energy of 2.36 eV, which is in agreement with photoinduced demagnetization produced by a green laser.

On the robustness of random Boolean formulae

Random Boolean formulae, generated by a growth process of noisy logical gates are analyzed using the generating functional methodology of statistical physics. We study the type of functions generated for different input distributions, their robustness for a given level of gate error and its dependence on the formulae depth and complexity and the gates used. Bounds on their performance, derived in the information theory literature for specific gates, are straightforwardly retrieved, generalized and identified as the corresponding typical-case phase transitions. Results for error-rates, function-depth and sensitivity of the generated functions are obtained for various gate-type and noise models. © 2010 IOP Publishing Ltd.

Prediction of Klason lignin and lignin thermal degradation products by Py-GC/MS in a collection of Lolium and Festuca grasses

A rapid method for the analysis of biomass feedstocks was established to identify the quality of the pyrolysis products likely to impact on bio-oil production. A total of 15 Lolium and Festuca grasses known to exhibit a range of Klason lignin contents were analysed by pyroprobe-GC/MS (Py-GC/MS) to determine the composition of the thermal degradation products of lignin. The identification of key marker compounds which are the derivatives of the three major lignin subunits (G, H, and S) allowed pyroprobe-GC/MS to be statistically correlated to the Klason lignin content of the biomass using the partial least-square method to produce a calibration model. Data from this multivariate modelling procedure was then applied to identify likely "key marker" ions representative of the lignin subunits from the mass spectral data. The combined total abundance of the identified key markers for the lignin subunits exhibited a linear relationship with the Klason lignin content. In addition the effect of alkali metal concentration on optimum pyrolysis characteristics was also examined. Washing of the grass samples removed approximately 70% of the metals and changed the characteristics of the thermal degradation process and products. Overall the data indicate that both the organic and inorganic specification of the biofuel impacts on the pyrolysis process and that pyroprobe-GC/MS is a suitable analytical technique to asses lignin composition. © 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The development of a novel in vitro model suitable for the prediction of bioavailability

In vitro studies of drug absorption processes are undertaken to assess drug candidate or formulation suitability, mechanism investigation, and ultimately for the development of predictive models. This study included each of these approaches, with the aim of developing novel in vitro methods for inclusion in a drug absorption model. Two model analgesic drugs, ibuprofen and paracetamol, were selected. The study focused on three main areas, the interaction of the model drugs with co-administered antacids, the elucidation of the mechanisms responsible for the increased absorption rate observed in a novel paracetamol formulation and the development of novel ibuprofen tablet formulations containing alkalising excipients as dissolution promoters.Several novel dissolution methods were developed. A method to study the interaction of drug/excipient mixtures in the powder form was successfully used to select suitable dissolution enhancing exicipents. A method to study intrinsic dissolution rate using paddle apparatus was developed and used to study dissolution mechanisms. Methods to simulate stomach and intestine environments in terms of media composition and volume and drug/antacid doses were developed. Antacid addition greatly increased the dissolution of ibuprofen in the stomach model.Novel methods to measure drug permeability through rat stomach and intestine were developed, using sac methodology. The methods allowed direct comparison of the apparent permeability values obtained. Tissue stability, reproducibility and integrity was observed, with selectivity between paracellular and transcellular markers and hydrophilic and lipophilic compounds within an homologous series of beta-blockers.

Development of a post-mitotic, neuronal-astrocytic cell system, for the prediction of acute neurotoxicity in humans

The human NT2.D1 cell line was differentiated to form both a 1:2 co-culture of post-mitotic NT2 neuronal and NT2 astrocytic (NT2.N/A) cells and a pure NT2.N culture. The respective sensitivities to several test chemicals of the NT2.N/A, the NT2.N, and the NT2.D1 cells were evaluated and compared with the CCF-STTG1 astrocytoma cell line, using a combination of basal cytotoxicity and biochemical endpoints. Using the MTT assay, the basal cytotoxicity data estimated the comparative toxicities of the test chemicals (chronic neurotoxin 2,5-hexanedione, cytotoxins 2,3- and 3,4-hexanedione and acute neurotoxins tributyltin- and trimethyltin- chloride) and also provided the non-cytotoxic concentration-range for each compound. Biochemical endpoints examined over the non-cytotoxic range included assays for ATP levels, oxidative status (H2O2 and GSH levels) and caspase-3 levels as an indicator of apoptosis. although the endpoints did not demonstrate the known neurotoxicants to be consistently more toxic to the cell systems with the greatest number of neuronal properties, the NT2 astrocytes appeared to contribute positively to NT2 neuronal health following exposure to all the test chemicals. The NT2.N/A co-culture generally maintained superior ATP and GSH levels and reduced H2O2 levels in comparison with the NT2.N mono-culture. In addition, the pure NT2.N culture showed a significantly lower level of caspase-3 activation compared with the co-culture, suggesting NT2 astrocytes may be important in modulating the mode of cell death following toxic insult. Overall, these studies provide evidence that an in vitro integrated population of post-mitotic human neurons and astrocytes may offer significant relevance to the human in vivo heterogeneous nervous system, when initially screening compounds for acute neurotoxic potential.

The prediction of vibration in large electric machines

This thesis reports the development of a reliable method for the prediction of response to electromagnetically induced vibration in large electric machines. The machines of primary interest are DC ship-propulsion motors but much of the work reported has broader significance. The investigation has involved work in five principal areas. (1) The development and use of dynamic substructuring methods. (2) The development of special elements to represent individual machine components. (3) Laboratory scale investigations to establish empirical values for properties which affect machine vibration levels. (4) Experiments on machines on the factory test-bed to provide data for correlation with prediction. (5) Reasoning with regard to the effect of various design features. The limiting factor in producing good models for machines in vibration is the time required for an analysis to take place. Dynamic substructuring methods were adopted early in the project to maximise the efficiency of the analysis. A review of existing substructure- representation and composite-structure assembly methods includes comments on which are most suitable for this application. In three appendices to the main volume methods are presented which were developed by the author to accelerate analyses. Despite significant advances in this area, the limiting factor in machine analyses is still time. The representation of individual machine components was addressed as another means by which the time required for an analysis could be reduced. This has resulted in the development of special elements which are more efficient than their finite-element counterparts. The laboratory scale experiments reported were undertaken to establish empirical values for the properties of three distinct features - lamination stacks, bolted-flange joints in rings and cylinders and the shimmed pole-yoke joint. These are central to the preparation of an accurate machine model. The theoretical methods are tested numerically and correlated with tests on two machines (running and static). A system has been devised with which the general electromagnetic forcing may be split into its most fundamental components. This is used to draw some conclusions about the probable effects of various design features.

A prediction of outcomes: a psychological investigation into cognitive and affective development within the framework of adult literacy provision

This investigation seeks to explore the hypothesis, derived from observation and practice, that there is a strong relationship between the development of literacy skills and the growth of confidence in adult literacy students. Implicit in the developmental approach is the notion of progression towards some cognitive goal. Such a goal necessitates the establishment of a base line of existing attainment, together with subsequent assessment so that progress and development can be measured. The study includes an evaluation of existing formal and informal methods of initial and subsequent assessment and diagnosis available at the time for Adult Literacy Scheme Co-ordinators. Underlying the funding by Cheshire County Council for the project is the assumption that the results will be available for all practitioners and that the tools of measurement may be used by other Adult Literacy Co-ordinators in the County. It is intended, therefore, that this research should result in practical outcomes in which methods of assessment will involve active participation by students as well as by tutors, becoming part of the learning process. It is hypothesised that this kind of co-operation could lead ultimately to self-directed learning and student-independence. For the purposes of this research, a balance is attempted in the use of assessment tools, between standardised tests and informal methods. The study provides facts about students! reading habits; as well as their reading levels, their spelling levels, their handwriting, their writing skills and their writing habits. The study seeks to show the students' feelings towards education, their educational attainments and the type of school which they attended. The study also attempts to come to some measurement of those aspects of student personality which relate to confidence, by means of tests and questionnaires. The study concludes with an examination of the link between cognitive and affective progress.

Integrating in silico and in vitro analysis of peptide binding affinity to HLA-Cw*0102:a bioinformatic approach to the prediction of new epitopes

Predictive models of peptide-Major Histocompatibility Complex (MHC) binding affinity are important components of modern computational immunovaccinology. Here, we describe the development and deployment of a reliable peptide-binding prediction method for a previously poorly-characterized human MHC class I allele, HLA-Cw*0102.

The analysis and prediction of the quantity and composition of household refuse

This thesis describes the development of a simple and accurate method for estimating the quantity and composition of household waste arisings. The method is based on the fundamental tenet that waste arisings can be predicted from information on the demographic and socio-economic characteristics of households, thus reducing the need for the direct measurement of waste arisings to that necessary for the calibration of a prediction model. The aim of the research is twofold: firstly to investigate the generation of waste arisings at the household level, and secondly to devise a method for supplying information on waste arisings to meet the needs of waste collection and disposal authorities, policy makers at both national and European level and the manufacturers of plant and equipment for waste sorting and treatment. The research was carried out in three phases: theoretical, empirical and analytical. In the theoretical phase specific testable hypotheses were formulated concerning the process of waste generation at the household level. The empirical phase of the research involved an initial questionnaire survey of 1277 households to obtain data on their socio-economic characteristics, and the subsequent sorting of waste arisings from each of the households surveyed. The analytical phase was divided between (a) the testing of the research hypotheses by matching each household's waste against its demographic/socioeconomic characteristics (b) the development of statistical models capable of predicting the waste arisings from an individual household and (c) the development of a practical method for obtaining area-based estimates of waste arisings using readily available data from the national census. The latter method was found to represent a substantial improvement over conventional methods of waste estimation in terms of both accuracy and spatial flexibility. The research therefore represents a substantial contribution both to scientific knowledge of the process of household waste generation, and to the practical management of waste arisings.

A tree-based decision model to support prediction of the severity of asthma exacerbations in children

This paper describes the development of a tree-based decision model to predict the severity of pediatric asthma exacerbations in the emergency department (ED) at 2 h following triage. The model was constructed from retrospective patient data abstracted from the ED charts. The original data was preprocessed to eliminate questionable patient records and to normalize values of age-dependent clinical attributes. The model uses attributes routinely collected in the ED and provides predictions even for incomplete observations. Its performance was verified on independent validating data (split-sample validation) where it demonstrated AUC (area under ROC curve) of 0.83, sensitivity of 84%, specificity of 71% and the Brier score of 0.18. The model is intended to supplement an asthma clinical practice guideline, however, it can be also used as a stand-alone decision tool.