Atuação da Câmara dos Deputados na regulamentação das normas para eleição dos membros do PARLASUL de 2014

O Brasil precisa definir sua situação da representação parlamentar no parlamento do MERCOSUL, o PARLASUL. Importantes questões não estão sendo tratadas com a devida atenção, pois atualmente os Parlamentares da Representação Brasileira do MERCOSUL são os políticos em atividade no Congresso Nacional, indicados pelos partidos, de forma semelhante às outras comissões do Senado e da Câmara dos Deputados e dividem suas extensas atividades diárias com os trabalhos desse novo parlamento e isso acaba comprometendo a atuação perante esse bloco econômico. Para tal, está tramitando na Câmara dos Deputados o Projeto de Lei nº 5279 de 2009, de autoria do Deputado Carlos Zarattini, que estabelece normas para as eleições dos parlamentares do MERCOSUL. Por ser um projeto de grande relevância, sua tramitação está sendo longa. Além disto, apresenta pontos polêmicos que afetam diretamente outra grande discussão do ambiente político nacional, a reforma política, principalmente com sistema de listas preordenadas pelos partidos políticos e o financiamento público exclusivo de campanha. Analisa o comportamento dos parlamentares brasileiros na estrutura de escolha dos representantes para o PARLASUL, que tendem a aprovar o projeto. Para um maior entendimento desta eleição e de todo processo da criação de um bloco econômico, a pesquisa aborda desde os primórdios das Relações Internacionais que originaram a criação de uma integração sul-americana, bem como um exame dos dados históricos da evolução do MERCOSUL e do PARLASUL.

A produção de leis dentro do presidencialismo de coalizão: o caso da CPMF

Dentre os fatores que condicionam a governabilidade nas modernas democracias, encontram-se as relações entre o Poder Executivo e o Poder Legislativo. Em países que adotam o chamado presidencialismo de coalizão, o Presidente da República, em geral, tende a formar uma ampla base com diversos partidos do Congresso, frequentemente com diferentes orientações políticas, a fim de obter uma base parlamentar que viabilize seu governo. Apesar de ser um recurso de governo típico do parlamentarismo, o presidencialismo brasileiro tem adotado a coalizão a partir das atribuições e formas de relacionamento estabelecidas pela Constituição Federal de 1988, para os dois Poderes. Se, nesse período, o Poder Executivo tem logrado êxito em mobilizar a coalizão parlamentar para aprovação da maioria de suas iniciativas, isto não é verdadeiro para algumas importantes oportunidades. É o caso examinado neste estudo. Em 2007, apesar de a base governista representar a maioria no Congresso Nacional, a Contribuição Provisória sobre Movimentação Financeira (CPMF) foi extinta.

Incorporating American Dreams into Australian Stories: Political Erasure and cultural transference in film adaptations of Australian Literary Classics

Eterio Pajares, Raquel Merino y José Miguel Santamaría (eds.)

Open Personalization: Involving Third Parties in Improving the User Experience of Websites

Traditional software development captures the user needs during the requirement analysis. The Web makes this endeavour even harder due to the difficulty to determine who these users are. In an attempt to tackle the heterogeneity of the user base, Web Personalization techniques are proposed to guide the users’ experience. In addition, Open Innovation allows organisations to look beyond their internal resources to develop new products or improve existing processes. This thesis sits in between by introducing Open Personalization as a means to incorporate actors other than webmasters in the personalization of web applications. The aim is to provide the technological basis that builds up a trusty environment for webmasters and companion actors to collaborate, i.e. "an architecture of participation". Such architecture very much depends on these actors’ profile. This work tackles three profiles (i.e. software partners, hobby programmers and end users), and proposes three "architectures of participation" tuned for each profile. Each architecture rests on different technologies: a .NET annotation library based on Inversion of Control for software partners, a Modding Interface in JavaScript for hobby programmers, and finally, a domain specific language for end-users. Proof-of-concept implementations are available for the three cases while a quantitative evaluation is conducted for the domain specific language.

The political econmoy of state government debt : an analysis of constitutional limitations (1961-1990)

Over the past decade, scholarly interest concerning the use of limitations to constrain government spending and taxing has noticeably increased. The call for constitutional restrictions can be credited, in part, to Washington's apparent inability to legislate any significant reductions in government expenditures or in the size of the national debt. At the present time, the federal government is far from instituting any constitutional limitations on spending or borrowing; however, the states have incorporated many controls on revenues and expenditures, the oldest being strictures on full faith and credit borrowing. This dissertations examines the efficacy of these restrictions on borrowing across the states (excluding Alaska) for the period dating from 1961 to 1990 and also studies the limitations on taxing and spending synonymous with the Tax Revolt.

We include socio-economic information in our calculations to control for factors other than the institutional variables that affect state borrowing levels. Our results show that certain constitutional restrictions (in particular, the referendum requirement and the dollar debt limit) are more effective than others. The apparent ineffectiveness of other limitations, such as the flexible debt limit, seem related to the bindingness of the limitations in at least half of the cases. Other variables, such as crime rates, number of schoolage children, and state personal income do affect the levels of full faith and credit debt, but not as strongly as the limitations. While some degree of circumvention can be detected (the amount of full faith and credit debt does inversely affect the levels of nonguaranteed debt), it is so small when compared to the effectiveness of the constitutional restrictions that it is almost negligible. The examination of the tax revolt era limitations yielded quite similar conclusions, with the additional fact that constitutional restrictions appear more binding than statutory ones. Our research demonstrates that constitutional limitations on borrowing can be applied effectively to constrain excessive borrowing, but caution must be used. The efficacy of these restrictions decrease dramatically as the number of loopholes increase.

Four essays on the empirical analysis of political ideology

This thesis examines four distinct facets and methods for understanding political ideology, and so it includes four distinct chapters with only moderate connections between them. Chapter 2 examines how reactions to emotional stimuli vary with political opinion, and how the stimuli can produce changes in an individuals political preferences. Chapter 3 examines the connection between self-reported fear and item nonresponse on surveys. Chapter 4 examines the connection between political and moral consistency with low-dimensional ideology, and Chapter 5 develops a technique for estimating ideal points and salience in a low-dimensional ideological space.

Economic Efficiency, Environmental Effectiveness and Political Feasibility of Energy Efficiency Rebates: The Case of the Spanish Energy Efficiency 'Renove' Plan

29 p.

Essays on Correlated Equilibrium and Voter Turnout

This thesis consists of three essays in the areas of political economy and game theory, unified by their focus on the effects of pre-play communication on equilibrium outcomes.

Communication is fundamental to elections. Chapter 2 extends canonical voter turnout models, where citizens, divided into two competing parties, choose between costly voting and abstaining, to include any form of communication, and characterizes the resulting set of Aumann's correlated equilibria. In contrast to previous research, high-turnout equilibria exist in large electorates and uncertain environments. This difference arises because communication can coordinate behavior in such a way that citizens find it incentive compatible to follow their correlated signals to vote more. The equilibria have expected turnout of at least twice the size of the minority for a wide range of positive voting costs.

In Chapter 3 I introduce a new equilibrium concept, called subcorrelated equilibrium, which fills the gap between Nash and correlated equilibrium, extending the latter to multiple mediators. Subcommunication equilibrium similarly extends communication equilibrium for incomplete information games. I explore the properties of these solutions and establish an equivalence between a subset of subcommunication equilibria and Myerson's quasi-principals' equilibria. I characterize an upper bound on expected turnout supported by subcorrelated equilibrium in the turnout game.

Chapter 4, co-authored with Thomas Palfrey, reports a new study of the effect of communication on voter turnout using a laboratory experiment. Before voting occurs, subjects may engage in various kinds of pre-play communication through computers. We study three communication treatments: No Communication, a control; Public Communication, where voters exchange public messages with all other voters, and Party Communication, where messages are exchanged only within one's own party. Our results point to a strong interaction effect between the form of communication and the voting cost. With a low voting cost, party communication increases turnout, while public communication decreases turnout. The data are consistent with correlated equilibrium play. With a high voting cost, public communication increases turnout. With communication, we find essentially no support for the standard Nash equilibrium turnout predictions.

Death or taxes? The political economy of sanitation expenditure in nineteenth-century Britain

This thesis consists of three papers studying the relationship between democratic reform, expenditure on sanitation public goods and mortality in Britain in the second half of the nineteenth century. During this period decisions over spending on critical public goods such as water supply and sewer systems were made by locally elected town councils, leading to extensive variation in the level of spending across the country. This dissertation uses new historical data to examine the political factors determining that variation, and the consequences for mortality rates.

The first substantive chapter describes the spread of government sanitation expenditure, and analyzes the factors that determined towns' willingness to invest. The results show the importance of towns' financial constraints, both in terms of the available tax base and access to borrowing, in limiting the level of expenditure. This suggests that greater involvement by Westminster could have been very effective in expediting sanitary investment. There is little evidence, however, that democratic reform was an important driver of greater expenditure.

Chapter 3 analyzes the effect of extending voting rights to the poor on government public goods spending. A simple model predicts that the rich and the poor will desire lower levels of public goods expenditure than the middle class, and so extensions of the right to vote to the poor will be associated with lower spending. This prediction is tested using plausibly exogenous variation in the extent of the franchise. The results strongly support the theoretical prediction: expenditure increased following relatively small extensions of the franchise, but fell once more than approximately 50% of the adult male population held the right to vote.

Chapter 4 tests whether the sanitary expenditure was effective in combating the high mortality rates following the Industrial Revolution. The results show that increases in urban expenditure on sanitation-water supply, sewer systems and streets-was extremely effective in reducing mortality from cholera and diarrhea.

O divisor de águas da política imperial: D. Pedro II, a conciliação e o Marquês de Paraná (1853-1856)

A Conciliação política foi um tema muito altercado no meado do Oitocentos no Segundo Reinado brasileiro. Este debate fora intensamente travado entre os principais partidos imperiais, Liberal e Conservador, que se alternavam no poder ao longo de quase 50 anos de comando do imperador D. Pedro II. Sobre seu governo, considerado por Joaquim Nabuco como a Grande Era Brasileira, é que este autor legou à historiografia posterior a sua obra máxima: Um Estadista do Império. Nossa dissertação parte da seguinte premissa: D. Pedro II no desejo de reinar, governar e administrar, acima dos partidos, encetou o seu Pensamento Augusto, isto é, a Conciliação. Os liberais acusavam a Conciliação de esvaziar suas propostas ao serem implementadas pelos conservadores. Estes que se encontravam no poder desde 1848, liderados pelos saquaremas, rechaçaram completamente tal ideia, pois entendiam que esta política patrocinada pela Coroa poderia enfraquecer seu partido. O Receio virou realidade, mediante algumas das medidas tomadas pelo Gabinete, pois para tal empreendimento, de compor um ministério com políticos liberais e conservadores, a Coroa contou com Honório Hermeto Carneiro Leão, Marquês de Paraná, para chefiar o primeiro gabinete conciliatório da história do Segundo Reinado enfrentando várias resistências, principalmente entre os referidos saquaremas. O sucesso do gabinete creditou-se à força, tato e prudência do Marquês e, principalmente, ao pensamento do Imperador. A partir daí a história política do Segundo Reinado tomou novas feições.

Ghost seats in the Basque Parliament

In elections voters have generally four options: to abstain, to cast a blank vote, to cast a null vote, or to vote for a candidate or party. This last option is a positive expression of support, while the other three options reflect lack of interest, or dissatisfaction with the parties or the political system. However only votes for parties or candidates are taken into account in the apportionment method. In particular the number of seats allocated to parties remains constant even if the number of non votes (i.e. blank votes, null votes or abstention) is very large. This paper proposes to treat the non votes as a party in the apportionment method and to leave empty the corresponding seats. These empty seats are referred to as "ghost seats". How this would affect the decision-making is quantified in terms of power indices. We apply this proposal to a case study:the regional Parliament of the Basque Autonomous Community (Spain) from 1980 till 2012.

From social to political. New forms of mobilization and democratization. Conference proceedings

In the recent evolution of contemporary social movements three phases can be identified. The first phase is marked by the labour movement and the systemic importance attributed to the labour conflict in industrial societies. This conflict has been interpreted as a consequence of the shortcoming of social integration mechanisms by Emile Durkheim, as a rational conflict by entrepreneurs’ and workers’ interests by Max Wener, and as a central class struggle for the transformation of society by Karl Marx. The second phase in this development was led by the new social movements of the post-industrial society of the 1960s and 1970s’ students, women and environmentalist movements. Two new analytical perspectives have explained these movements’ meaning and actions. Resource mobilization theory (McAdam and Tilly) has focuses on rational attitudes and conflicts. Actionalist sociology, in turn, has identified the new protagonists of social conflicts that replaced the labour movement in postindustrial societies. The third phase emerges in a world characterized by the ascendance of markets, the increasingly prominent role of financial capital flows, the closure of communities, and fundamentalism. In this context, human rights and pro-democratization movements constitute alternatives to global domination and the systemic conditioning of individual and groups.

Political Institutions, Technology and Growth: a dynamic panel approach

This paper investigates whether the effect of political institutions on sectoral economic performance is determined by the level of technological development of industries. Building on previous studies on the linkages among political institutions, technology and economic growth, we employ the dynamic panel Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator for a sample of 4,134 country-industries from 61 industries and 89 countries over the 1990-2010 period. Our main findings suggest that changes of political institutions towards higher levels of democracy, political rights and civil liberties enhance economic growth in technologically developed industries. On the contrary, the same institutional changes might retard economic growth of those industries that are below a technological development threshold. Overall, these results give evidence of a technologically conditioned nature of political institutions to be growth-promoting.

O sistema internacional pós-crise de 2008 e as relações China- Estados Unidos: uma análise em três frentes

As relações sino-americanas passaram a desempenhar um papel ordenador fundamental na condução dos assuntos internacionais neste século XXI, ao ponto de alguns analistas criarem o termo G-2. A crise financeira de 2008, por representar um golpe profundo nos países desenvolvidos e nos direcionamentos de valores do estágio atual de desenvolvimento do sistema, levou a relação China-Estados Unidos a um outro patamar. Ao passo que os norte-americanos tiveram de se preocupar em resolver as turbulências causadas na economia doméstica, o país asiático passou a desempenhar um papel crucial no processo de recuperação da economia global. O presente trabalho tem o objetivo, então, de analisar de que forma a crise de 2008, também chamada de crise do subprime, impactou os ordenamentos centrais do Sistema Internacional neste período de recuperação e como as relações sino-americanas podem ser usadas para uma melhor compreensão deste fenômeno. Na busca por traçar respostas mais sólidas, a pesquisa delineia-se em três frentes principais de análise: as relações diretas entre China e Estados Unidos; as relações dos dois países com um terceiro ator, a saber, a África; e os posicionamentos adotados por ambas as partes nas instituições multilaterais. Para tal, primeiro buscou-se aliar análises qualitativas e quantitativas, baseadas em instrumentais matemáticos e também na Ciência Política, História e Economia Política Internacional, para alcançar os resultados definidos nos objetivos da pesquisa. A dissertação é dividida em cinco capítulos, onde os três primeiros tratam de introduzir o assunto estudado e as principais vertentes teóricas utilizadas ao longo do trabalho. Os últimos envolvem a aplicação prática dos conceitos interdisciplinares escolhidos como aliados do trabalho empírico e a apresentação dos resultados finais. Em linhas gerais, concluiu-se que a crise acentuou os aspectos de interdependência entre China e Estados Unidos em todas as frentes estudadas. Avaliando as relações sino-americanas e os rumos do sistema internacional pós-crise em três facetas, concluímos também que tal exercício analítico ofereceu recursos mais palpáveis no fornecimento das respostas procuradas pela dissertação.

O partido da social democracia brasileira: trajetoria e ideologia

O Partido da Social Democracia Brasileira (PSDB) surgiu em 1987, como uma opção de centro-esquerda, e, de acordo com seus fundadores a agremiação nasceu alinhada com a ideologia social-democrata. Contudo, desde sua origem o partido apresenta duas diferenças fundamentais em relação aos partidos social-democratas europeus: não tem vínculos com movimentos trabalhistas e defende o liberalismo de mercado. No decorrer de sua história, o partido muda da centro-esquerda para a centro-direita demonstrando mais claramente sua verdadeira inclinação ideológica, fato que pode ser observado no posicionamento de sua bancada, no auto-posicionamento e nas políticas que foram implementadas nos anos em que esteve à frente do executivo federal. A análise dos documentos do PSDB nos revela que a mudança do partido não foi de algo pragmático, na verdade o partido já apresentava simpatia às políticas pró-mercado em seus manifestos desde sua fundação.