Testing the timing of radiocarbon-dated events between proxy archives

For interpreting past changes on a regional or global scale, the timings of proxy-inferred events are usually aligned with data from other locations. However, too often chronological uncertainties are ignored in proxy diagrams and multisite comparisons, making it possible for researchers to fall into the trap of sucking separate events into one illusionary event (or vice versa). Here we largely solve this "suck in and smear syndrome" for radiocarbon (14C) dated sequences. In a Bayesian framework, millions of plausible age-models are constructed to quantify the chronological uncertainties within and between proxy archives. We test the technique on replicated high-resolution 14C-dated peat cores deposited during the "Little Ice Age" (c. AD 1400-1900), a period characterized by abrupt climate changes and severe 14C calibration problems. Owing to internal variability in proxy data and uncertainties in age-models, these (and possibly many more) archives are not consistent in recording decadal climate change. Through explicit statistical tests of palaeoenvironmental hypotheses, we can move forward to systematic interpretations of proxy data. However, chronological uncertainties of non-annually resolved palaeoclimate records are too large for answering decadal timescale questions.

Vegetation history at the multi-period prehistoric complex at Ballynahatty, Co. Down, Northern Ireland.

Palaeoecological methods can provide an environmental context for archaeological sites, enabling the nature of past human activity to be explored from an indirect but alternative perspective. Through a palynological study of a small fen wetland located within the catchment of a multi-period prehistoric complex at Ballynahatty, Co. Down, Northern Ireland, we reconstruct the vegetation history of the area during the early prehistoric period. The pollen record reveals tentative evidence for Mesolithic activity in the area at 6410-6220 cal. BC, with woodland disturbance identified during the Mesolithic-Neolithic transitional period ca. 4430-3890 cal. BC. A more significant impact on the landscape is observed in the Early Neolithic from 3944-3702 cal. BC, with an opening up of the forests and the establishment of a mixed agricultural economy. This activity precedes and continues to be evident during the Mid-Neolithic during which megalithic tombs and related burial sites were constructed at Ballynahatty. Due to chronological uncertainties and a possible hiatus in peat accumulation in the fen, the contemporary environment of the Ballynahatty timber circle complex (constructed and used ca. 3080-2490 cal. BC) and henge (dating to the third millennium cal. BC) cannot certainly be established. Nevertheless, the pollen record suggests that the landscape remained open through to the Bronze Age, implying a long continuity of human activity in the area. These findings support the idea that the Ballynahatty prehistoric complex was the product of a gradual and repeated restructuring of the ritual and ceremonial landscape whose significance continued to be recognised throughout the early prehistoric period.

The Characterization of Friction Stir Welding Process Effects on Stiffened Panel Buckling Performance

The introduction of advanced welding methods as an alternative joining process to riveting in the manufacture of primary aircraft structure has the potential to realize reductions in both manufacturing costs and structural weight. However, welding processes can introduce undesirable residual stresses and distortions in the final fabricated components, as well as localized loss of mechanical properties at the weld joints. The aim of this research is to determine and characterize the key process effects of advanced welding assembly methods on stiffened panel static strength performance. This in-depth understanding of the relationships between welding process effects and buckling and collapse strength is required to achieve manufacturing cost reductions without introducing structural analysis uncertainties and hence conservative over designed welded panels. This current work is focused at the sub-component level and examines the static strength of friction stir welded multi stiffener panels. The undertaken experimental and computational studies have demonstrated that local skin buckling is predominantly influenced by the magnitude of welding induced residual stresses and associated geometric distortions, whereas panel collapse behavior is sensitive to the lateral width of the physically joined skin and stiffener flange material, the strength of material in the Heat Affected Zone as well as the magnitude of the welding induced residual stresses. Copyright © 2006 by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Inc. All rights reserved.


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The rotational broadening of V395 Carinae. Implications on the compact object's mass

Context: The masses previously obtained for the X-ray binary 2S 0921-630 inferred a compact object that was either a high-mass neutron star or low-mass black-hole, but used a previously published value for the rotational broadening (v sin i) with large uncertainties. Aims: We aim to determine an accurate mass for the compact object through an improved measurement of the secondary star's projected equatorial rotational velocity. Methods: We have used UVES echelle spectroscopy to determine the v sin i of the secondary star (V395 Car) in the low-mass X-ray binary 2S 0921-630 by comparison to an artificially broadened spectral-type template star. In addition, we have also measured v sin i from a single high signal-to-noise ratio absorption line profile calculated using the method of Least-Squares Deconvolution (LSD). Results: We determine v sin i to lie between 31.3±0.5 km s-1 to 34.7±0.5 km s-1 (assuming zero and continuum limb darkening, respectively) in disagreement with previous results based on intermediate resolution spectroscopy obtained with the 3.6 m NTT. Using our revised v sin i value in combination with the secondary star's radial velocity gives a binary mass ratio of 0.281±0.034. Furthermore, assuming a binary inclination angle of 75° gives a compact object mass of 1.37±0.13 M_?. Conclusions: We find that using relatively low-resolution spectroscopy can result in systemic uncertainties in the measured v sin i values obtained using standard methods. We suggest the use of LSD as a secondary, reliable check of the results as LSD allows one to directly discern the shape of the absorption line profile. In the light of the new v sin i measurement, we have revised down the compact object's mass, such that it is now compatible with a canonical neutron star mass.

Robust face recognition using posterior union model based neural networks

Face recognition with unknown, partial distortion and occlusion is a practical problem, and has a wide range of applications, including security and multimedia information retrieval. The authors present a new approach to face recognition subject to unknown, partial distortion and occlusion. The new approach is based on a probabilistic decision-based neural network, enhanced by a statistical method called the posterior union model (PUM). PUM is an approach for ignoring severely mismatched local features and focusing the recognition mainly on the reliable local features. It thereby improves the robustness while assuming no prior information about the corruption. We call the new approach the posterior union decision-based neural network (PUDBNN). The new PUDBNN model has been evaluated on three face image databases (XM2VTS, AT&T and AR) using testing images subjected to various types of simulated and realistic partial distortion and occlusion. The new system has been compared to other approaches and has demonstrated improved performance.

A Transit Timing Analysis of Mine RISE Light Curves of the Exoplanet System TrES-3

We present nine newly observed transits of TrES-3, taken as part of a transit timing program using the RISE instrument on the Liverpool Telescope. A Markov-Chain Monte Carlo analysis was used to determine the planet star radius ratio and inclination of the system, which were found to be R-p/R-star = 0.1664(-0.0018)(+0.0011) and i = 81.73(-0.04)(+0.13), respectively, consistent with previous results. The central transit times and uncertainties were also calculated, using a residual-permutation algorithm as an independent check on the errors. A re-analysis of eight previously published TrES-3 light curves was conducted to determine the transit times and uncertainties using consistent techniques. Whilst the transit times were not found to be in agreement with a linear ephemeris, giving chi(2) = 35.07 for 15 degrees of freedom, we interpret this to be the result of systematics in the light curves rather than a real transit timing variation. This is because the light curves that show the largest deviation from a constant period either have relatively little out-of-transit coverage or have clear systematics. A new ephemeris was calculated using the transit times and was found to be T-c(0) = 2454632.62610 +/- 0.00006 HJD and P = 1.3061864 +/- 0.0000005 days. The transit times were then used to place upper mass limits as a function of the period ratio of a potential perturbing planet, showing that our data are sufficiently sensitive to have probed sub-Earth mass planets in both interior and exterior 2:1 resonances, assuming that the additional planet is in an initially circular orbit.

An analysis of geometric uncertainty calculations for prostate radiotherapy in clinical practice.

Margins are used in radiotherapy to assist in the calculation of planning target volumes. These margins can be determined by analysing the geometric uncertainties inherent to the radiotherapy planning and delivery process. An important part of this process is the study of electronic portal images collected throughout the course of treatment. Set-up uncertainties were determined for prostate radiotherapy treatments at our previous site and the new purpose-built centre, with margins determined using a number of different methods. In addition, the potential effect of reducing the action level from 5 mm to 3 mm for changing a patient set-up, based on off-line bony anatomy-based portal image analysis, was studied. Margins generated using different methodologies were comparable. It was found that set-up errors were reduced following relocation to the new centre. Although a significant increase in the number of corrections to a patient's set-up was predicted if the action level was reduced from 5 mm to 3 mm, minimal reduction in patient set-up uncertainties would be seen as a consequence. Prescriptive geometric uncertainty analysis not only supports calculation and justification of the margins used clinically to generate planning target volumes, but may also best be used to monitor trends in clinical practice or audit changes introduced by new equipment, technology or practice. Simulations on existing data showed that a 3 mm rather than a 5 mm action level during off-line, bony anatomy-based portal imaging would have had a minimal benefit for the patients studied in this work.

Sperm DNA: organization;protection and vulnerability: from basic science to clinical applications. a position rep

This paper reports the results of the most recent in a series of EHSRE workshops designed to synthesize the current state of the field in Andrology and provide recommendations for future work (ESHRE 1998; 1996). Its focus is on methods for detecting sperm DNA damage and potential application of new knowledge about sperm chromatin organization, vulnerability and repair to improve the diagnosis and treatment of clinical infertility associated with that damage. Equally important is the use and reliability of these tests to identify the extent to which environmental contaminants or pharmaceutical agents may contribute to the incidence of sperm DNA damage and male fertility problems. A working group# under the auspices of ESHRE met in May 2009 to assess the current knowledgebase and suggest future basic and clinical research directions. This document presents a synthesis of the working group’s understanding of the recent literature and collective discussions on the current state of knowledge of sperm chromatin structure and function during fertilization. It highlights the biological, assay and clinical uncertainties that require further research and ends with a series of recommendations.

A survey of formalisms for representing and reasoning with scientific knowledge

With the rapid growth in the quantity and complexity of scientific knowledge available for scientists, and allied professionals, the problems associated with harnessing this knowledge are well recognized. Some of these problems are a result of the uncertainties and inconsistencies that arise in this knowledge. Other problems arise from heterogeneous and informal formats for this knowledge. To address these problems, developments in the application of knowledge representation and reasoning technologies can allow scientific knowledge to be captured in logic-based formalisms. Using such formalisms, we can undertake reasoning with the uncertainty and inconsistency to allow automated techniques to be used for querying and combining of scientific knowledge. Furthermore, by harnessing background knowledge, the querying and combining tasks can be carried out more intelligently. In this paper, we review some of the significant proposals for formalisms for representing and reasoning with scientific knowledge.

Were last glacial climate events simultaneous between Greenland and France? A quantitative comparison using non-tuned chronologies

Several large abrupt climate fluctuations during the last glacial have been recorded in Greenland ice cores and archives from other regions. Often these Dansgaard-Oeschger events are assumed to have been synchronous over wide areas, and then used as tie-points to link chronologies between the proxy archives. However, it has not yet been tested independently whether or not these events were indeed synchronous over large areas. Here, we compare Dansgaard-Oeschger-type events in a well-dated record from southeastern France with those in Greenland ice cores. Instead of assuming simultaneous climate events between both archives, we keep their age models independent. Even these well-dated archives possess large chronological uncertainties that prevent us from inferring synchronous climate events at decadal to multi-centennial time scales. If possible, comparisons between proxy archives should be based on independent, non-tuned time-scales. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Constraining the age of Lateglacial and early Holocene pollen zones and tephra horizons in southern Sweden with Bayesian probability methods

The sediment sequence from Hasseldala port in southeastern Sweden provides a unique Lateglacial/early Holocene record that contains five different tephra layers. Three of these have been geochemically identified as the Borrobol Tephra, the Hasseldalen Tephra and the 10-ka Askja Tephra. Twenty-eight high-resolution C-14 measurements have been obtained and three different age models based on Bayesian statistics are employed to provide age estimates for the five different tephra layers. The chrono- and pollen stratigraphic framework supports the stratigraphic position of the Borrobol Tephra as found in Sweden at the very end of the Older Dryas pollen zone and provides the first age estimates for the Askja and Hasseldalen tephras. Our results, however, highlight the limitations that arise in attempting to establish a robust, chronologically independent lacustrine sequence that can be correlated in great detail to ice core or marine records. Radiocarbon samples are prone to error and sedimentation rates in lake basins may vary considerably due to a number of factors. Any type of valid and 'realistic' age model, therefore, has to take these limitations into account and needs to include this information in its prior assumptions. As a result, the age ranges for the specific horizons at Hasseldala port are large and calendar year estimates differ according to the assumptions of the age-model. Not only do these results provide a cautionary note for overdependence on one age-model for the derivation of age estimates for specific horizons, but they also demonstrate that precise correlations to other palaeoarchives to detect leads or lags is problematic. Given the uncertainties associated with establishing age-depth models for sedimentary sequences spanning the Lateglacial period, however, this exercise employing Bayesian probability methods represents the best possible approach and provides the most statistically significant age estimates for the pollen zone boundaries and tephra horizons. Copyright (C) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Li-6 in the atmosphere of GJ 117 revisited

Detection of Li-6 has been shown for energetic solar events, one chromospherically active binary, and several dwarf halo stars. We had previously found a Li-6/Li-7 = 0.03 +/- 0.01 for active K dwarf GJ 117 using VLT UVES observations. Here we present high signal-to-noise (> 1000) high spectral resolution observations taken with the McDonald Observatory's 2.7 m and echelle spectrometer of GJ 117. We have used the solar spectrum and template stars to eliminate possible blends, such as Ti I, in the Li-6 spectral region. Our new analysis, using an updated PHOENIX model atmosphere, finds Li-6/Li-7 = 0.05 +/- 0.02. In addition, bisector analysis showed no significant red asymmetries that would affect the lithium line profile. No changes above the statistical uncertainties are found between the VLT and McDonald data. The amount of Li-6 derived for GJ 117 is consistent with creation in spallation reactions on the stellar surface, but we caution that uncertainties in the continuum level may cause additional uncertainty in the Li-6 fraction.

A transit timing analysis of seven RISE light curves of the exoplanet system HAT-P-3

We present seven light curves of the exoplanet system HAT-P-3, taken as part of a transit timing programme using the rapid imager to search for exoplanets instrument on the Liverpool Telescope. The light curves are analysed using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to update the parameters of the system. The inclination is found to be i = 86.75+0.22-0.21°, the planet-star radius ratio to be Rp/R* = 0.1098+0.0010-0.0012 and the stellar radius to be R* = 0.834+0.018-0.026Rsolar, consistent with previous results but with a significant improvement in the precision. Central transit times and uncertainties for each light curve are also determined, and a residual permutation algorithm is used as an independent check on the errors. The transit times are found to be consistent with a linear ephemeris, and a new ephemeris is calculated as Tc(0) = 2454856.70118 +/- 0.00018 HJD and P = 2.899738 +/- 0.000007 d. Model timing residuals are fitted to the measured timing residuals to place upper mass limits for a hypothetical perturbing planet as a function of the period ratio. These show that we have probed for planets with masses as low as 0.33 and 1.81 M? in the interior and exterior 2:1 resonances, respectively, assuming the planets are initially in circular orbits.

Tight constraints on the existence of additional planets around HD 189733†

We report a transit timing study of the transiting exoplanetary system HD 189733. In total, we observed 10 transits in 2006 and 2008 with the 2.6-m Nordic Optical Telescope, and two transits in 2007 with the 4.2-m William Herschel Telescope. We used Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations to derive the system parameters and their uncertainties, and our results are in a good agreement with previously published values. We performed two independent analyses of transit timing residuals to place upper mass limits on putative perturbing planets. The results show no evidence for the presence of planets down to 1 Earth mass near the 1:2 and 2:1 resonance orbits, and planets down to 2.2 Earth masses near the 3:5 and 5:3 resonance orbits with HD 189733b. These are the strongest limits to date on the presence of other planets in this system. Based on observations made with the Nordic Optical Telescope, operated on the island of La Palma jointly by Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden, in the Spanish Observatorio del Roque de los Muchachos of the Instituto de Astrofísica de Canarias. Based on observations made with the William Herschel Telescope operated on the island of La Palma by the Isaac Newton Group in the Spanish Observatorio del Roque de los Muchachos of the Instituto de Astrofísica de Canarias. ‡

Chemical Processes in Protoplanetary Disks

We have developed a high-resolution combined physical and chemical model of a protoplanetary disk surrounding a typical T Tauri star. Our aims were to use our model to calculate the chemical structure of disks on small scales (submilliarcsecond in the inner disk for objects at the distance of Taurus, ~140 pc) to investigate the various chemical processes thought to be important in disks and to determine potential molecular tracers of each process. Our gas-phase network was extracted from the UMIST Database for Astrochemistry to which we added gas–grain interactions including freezeout and thermal and non-thermal desorption (cosmic-ray-induced desorption, photodesorption, and X-ray desorption), and a grain-surface network. We find that cosmic-ray-induced desorption has the least effect on our disk chemical structure while photodesorption has a significant effect, enhancing the abundances of most gas-phase molecules throughout the disk and affecting the abundances and distribution of HCN, CN, and CS, in particular. In the outer disk, we also see enhancements in the abundances of H2O and CO2. X-ray desorption is a potentially powerful mechanism in disks, acting to homogenize the fractional abundances of gas-phase species across the depth and increasing the column densities of most molecules, although there remain significant uncertainties in the rates adopted for this process. The addition of grain-surface chemistry enhances the fractional abundances of several small complex organic molecules including CH3OH, HCOOCH3, and CH3OCH3 to potentially observable values (i.e., a fractional abundance of greater than 10-11).