Saint Lucia: macro socio-economic assessment of the damage and losses caused by hurricane Dean

Includes bibliography

Economic survey of Latin America, 1982: Saint Vincent and the Grenadines: preliminary version

Includes bibliography

An assessment of mechanisms to improve energy efficiency in the transport sector in Grenada, Saint Lucia and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

Like many other Caribbean countries, Grenada, Saint Lucia and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines are almost entirely dependent on imported petroleum as their primary source of energy. In this regard, many countries in the subregion have taken a strategic approach to long-term planning in the energy sector towards creating higher levels of efficiency on both the demand and supply sides as well as promoting diversification in the energy mix. Within this context, this study was conducted to present mechanisms to improve energy efficiency (EE) in the transport sector in Grenada, Saint Lucia and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. For each country, the report presents a brief description of current trends in energy consumption generally as well as energy issues in the transport sector and programmes, initiatives and regulatory mechanisms currently in place that are contributing to energy efficiency in the sector.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Agriculture, Health and Tourism sectors in Saint Lucia

This report analyses the agriculture, health and tourism sectors in Saint Lucia to assess the potential economic impacts of climate change on the sectors. The fundamental aim of this report is to assist with the development of strategies to deal with the potential impact of climate change in Saint Lucia. It also has the potential to provide essential input for identifying and preparing policies and strategies to help advance the Caribbean subregion closer to solving problems associated with climate change and attaining individual and regional sustainable development goals. Some of the key anticipated impacts of climate change for the Caribbean include elevated air and sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise, possible changes in extreme events and a reduction in freshwater resources. The economic impact of climate change on the three sectors was estimated for the A2 and B2 IPCC scenarios until 2050. An evaluation of various adaptation strategies for each sector was also undertaken using standard evaluation techniques. The key subsectors in agriculture are expected to have mixed impacts under the A2 and B2 scenarios. Banana, fisheries and root crop outputs are expected to fall with climate change, but tree crop and vegetable production are expected to rise. In aggregate, in every decade up to 2050, these sub-sectors combined are expected to experience a gain under climate change with the highest gains under A2. By 2050, the cumulative gain under A2 is calculated as approximately US$389.35 million and approximately US$310.58 million under B2, which represents 17.93% and 14.30% of the 2008 GDP respectively. This result was unexpected and may well be attributed to the unavailability of annual data that would have informed a more robust assessment. Additionally, costs to the agriculture sector due to tropical cyclones were estimated to be $6.9 million and $6.2 million under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. There are a number of possible adaptation strategies that can be employed by the agriculture sector. The most attractive adaptation options, based on the benefit-cost ratio are: (1) Designing and implementation of holistic water management plans (2) Establishment of systems of food storage and (3) Establishment of early warning systems. Government policy should focus on the development of these adaption options where they are not currently being pursued and strengthen those that have already been initiated, such as the mainstreaming of climate change issues in agricultural policy. The analysis of the health sector placed focus on gastroenteritis, schistosomiasis, ciguatera poisoning, meningococal meningitis, cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases and malnutrition. The results obtained for the A2 and B2 scenarios demonstrate the potential for climate change to add a substantial burden to the health system in the future, a factor that will further compound the country’s vulnerability to other anticipated impacts of climate change. Specifically, it was determined that the overall Value of Statistical Lives impacts were higher under the A2 scenario than the B2 scenario. A number of adaptation cost assumptions were employed to determine the damage cost estimates using benefit-cost analysis. The benefit-cost analysis suggests that expenditure on monitoring and information provision would be a highly efficient step in managing climate change and subsequent increases in disease incidence. Various locations in the world have developed forecasting systems for dengue fever and other vector-borne diseases that could be mirrored and implemented. Combining such macro-level policies with inexpensive micro-level behavioural changes may have the potential for pre-empting the re-establishment of dengue fever and other vector-borne epidemic cycles in Saint Lucia. Although temperature has the probability of generating significant excess mortality for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, the power of temperature to increase mortality largely depends on the education of the population about the harmful effects of increasing temperatures and on the existing incidence of these two diseases. For these diseases it is also suggested that a mix of macro-level efforts and micro-level behavioural changes can be employed to relieve at least part of the threat that climate change poses to human health. The same principle applies for water and food-borne diseases, with the improvement of sanitation infrastructure complementing the strengthening of individual hygiene habits. The results regarding the tourism sector imply that the tourism climatic index was likely to experience a significant downward shift in Saint Lucia under the A2 as well as the B2 scenario, indicative of deterioration in the suitability of the island for tourism. It is estimated that this shift in tourism features could cost Saint Lucia about 5 times the 2009 GDP over a 40-year horizon. In addition to changes in climatic suitability for tourism, climate change is also likely to have important supply-side effects on species, ecosystems and landscapes. Two broad areas are: (1) coral reefs, due to their intimate link to tourism, and, (2) land loss, as most hotels tend to lie along the coastline. The damage related to coral reefs was estimated at US$3.4 billion (3.6 times GDP in 2009) under the A2 scenario and US$1.7 billion (1.6 times GDP in 2009) under the B2 scenario. The damage due to land loss arising from sea level rise was estimated at US$3.5 billion (3.7 times GDP) under the A2 scenario and US$3.2 billion (3.4 times GDP) under the B2 scenario. Given the potential for significant damage to the industry a large number of potential adaptation measures were considered. Out of these a short-list of 9 potential options were selected by applying 10 evaluation criteria. Using benefit-cost analyses 3 options with positive ratios were put forward: (1) increased recommended design speeds for new tourism-related structures; (2) enhanced reef monitoring systems to provide early warning alerts of bleaching events, and, (3) deployment of artificial reefs or other fish-aggregating devices. While these options had positive benefit-cost ratios, other options were also recommended based on their non-tangible benefits. These include the employment of an irrigation network that allows for the recycling of waste water, development of national evacuation and rescue plans, providing retraining for displaced tourism workers and the revision of policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climate realities.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the water sector in Saint Vincent and The Grenadines

Water security which is essential to life and livelihood, health and sanitation, is determined not only by the water resource, but also by the quality of water, the ability to store surplus from precipitation and runoff, as well as access to and affordability of supply. All of these measures have financial implications for national budgets. The water sector in the context of the assessment and discussion on the impact of climate change in this paper includes consideration of the existing as well as the projected available water resource and the demand in terms of: quantity and quality of surface and ground water, water supply infrastructure - collection, storage, treatment, distribution, and potential for adaptation. Wastewater management infrastructure is also considered a component of the water sector. Saint Vincent and the Grenadines has two distinct hydrological regimes: mainland St Vincent is one of the wetter islands of the eastern Caribbean whereas the Grenadines have a drier climate than St Vincent. Surface water is the primary source of water supply on St Vincent, whereas the Grenadines depend on man-made catchments, rainwater harvesting, wells, and desalination. The island state is considered already water stressed as marked seasonality in rainfall, inadequate supply infrastructure, and institutional capacity constrains water supply. Economic modelling approaches were implemented to estimate sectoral demand and supply between 2011 and 2050. Residential, tourism and domestic demand were analysed for the A2, B2 and BAU scenarios. In each of the three scenarios – A2, B2 and BAU Saint Vincent and the Grenadines will have a water gap represented by the difference between the two curves during the forecast period of 2011 and 2050. The amount of water required increases steadily between 2011 and 2050 implying an increasing demand on the country‘s resources as reflected by the fact that the water supply that is available cannot respond adequately to the demand. The Global Water Partnership in its 2005 policy brief suggested that the best way for countries to build the capacity to adapt to climate change will be to improve their ability to cope with today‘s climate variability (GWP, 2005). This suggestion is most applicable for St Vincent and the Grenadines, as the variability being experienced has already placed the island nation under water stress. Strategic priorities should therefore be adopted to increase water production, increase efficiency, strengthen the institutional framework, and decrease wastage. Cost benefit analysis was stymied by data availability, but the ―no-regrets approach‖ which intimates that adaptation measures will be beneficial to the land, people and economy of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines with or without climate change should be adopted.

An assessment of the economic impact Of climate change on the health sector in Saint Lucia

Climate change has the potential to impact on global, regional, and national disease burdens both directly and indirectly. Projecting and valuing these health impacts is important not only in terms of assessing the overall impact of climate change on various parts of the world, but also of ensuring that national and regional decision-making institutions have access to the data necessary to guide investment decisions and future policy design. This report contributes to the research focusing on projecting and valuing the impacts of climate change in the Caribbean by projecting the climate change-induced excess disease burden for two climate change scenarios in Saint Lucia for the period 2010 - 2050, and by estimating the non-market, statistical life-based costs associated with this excess disease burden. The diseases initially considered in this report are a variety of vector and water-borne impacts and other miscellaneous conditions; specifically, malaria, dengue fever, gastroenteritis/diarrhoeal disease, schistosomiasis, leptospirosis, ciguatera poisoning, meningococcal meningitis, and cardio-respiratory diseases. Disease projections were based on derived baseline incidence and mortality rates, available dose-response relationships found in the published literature, climate change scenario population projections for the A2 and B2 IPCC SRES scenario families, and annual temperature and precipitation anomalies as projected by the downscaled ECHAM4 global climate model. Monetary valuation was based on a transfer value of statistical life approach with a modification for morbidity. Using discount rates of 1, 2, and 4%, results show mean annual costs (morbidity and mortality) ranges of $80.2 million (in the B2 scenario, discounted at 4% annually) -$182.4 million (in the A2 scenario, discounted at 1% annually) for St. Lucia.1 These costs are compared to adaptation cost scenarios involving direct and indirect interventions in health care. This comparison reveals a high benefit-cost ratio suggesting that moderate costs will deliver significant benefit in terms of avoided health costs from 2010-2050. In this context indirect interventions target sectors other than healthcare (e.g. water supply). It is also important to highlight that interventions can target both the supply of health infrastructure (including health status and disease monitoring), and households. It is suggested that a focus on coordinated data collection and improved monitoring represents a potentially important no regrets adaptation strategy for St Lucia. Also, the need for this to be part of a coordinated regional response that avoids duplication in spending is highlighted.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the coastal and marine sector in Saint Kitts And Nevis

Owing to their high vulnerability and low adaptive capacity, Caribbean islands have legitimate concerns about their future, based on observational records, experience with current patterns and consequences of climate variability, and climate model projections. Although emitting less than 1% of global greenhouse gases, islands from the region have already perceived a need to reallocate scarce resources away from economic development and poverty alleviation, and towards the implementation of strategies to adapt to the growing threats posed by global warming (Nurse and Moore, 2005). The objectives of this Report are to conduct economic analyses of the projected impacts of climate change to 2050, within the context of the IPCC A2 and B2 scenarios, on the coastal and marine resources of St. Kitts and Nevis (SKN). The Report presents a valuation of coastal and marine services; quantitative and qualitative estimates of climate change impacts on the coastal zone; and recommendations for possible adaptation strategies and costs and benefits of adaptation.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the tourism sector in Saint Lucia

This report provides an analysis and evaluation of the likely effects of climate change on the tourism sector in Saint Lucia. Clayton (2009) identifies three reasons why the Caribbean should be concerned about the potential effects of climate change on tourism: (a) the relatively high dependence on tourism as a source of foreign exchange and employment; (b) the intrinsic vulnerability of small islands and their infrastructure (e.g. hotels and resorts) to sea level rise and extreme climatic events (e.g. hurricanes and floods); and, (c) the high dependence of the regional tourist industry on carbon-based fuels (both to bring tourist to the region as well as to provide support services in the region). The effects of climate change are already being felt on the island. Between 1970 and 2009 there was a rise in the number of relatively hot days experienced on the island. Added to this, there was also a decline in mean precipitation over the period. In addition to temperature, there is also the threat of increased wind speeds. Since the early twentieth century, the number of hurricanes passing through the Caribbean has risen from about 5-6 per year to more than 25 in some years of the twenty-first century. In Saint Lucia, the estimated damage from 12 windstorms (including hurricanes) affecting the island was US$1 billion or about 106% of 2009 GDP. Climate change is also likely to significantly affect coral reefs. Hoegh-Guldberg (2007) estimates that should current concentrations of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere rise from 380ppm to 560ppm, decreases in coral calcification and growth by 40% are likely. This report attempted to quantify the likely effects of the changes in the climatic factors mentioned above on the economy of Saint Lucia. As it relates to temperature and other climatic variables, a tourism climatic index that captures the elements of climate that impact on a destination’s experience was constructed. The index was calculated using historical observations, as well as those under two, likely, Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) climate scenarios: A2 and B2.

Influence of the network modifier on the characteristics of MSnO3 (M=Sr and,Ca) thin films synthesized by chemical solution deposition

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

The Banhado Alkaline Complex, Southeastern Brazil: source and evolution of potassic SiO2-undersaturated high-Ca and low-Ca magmatic series

The Cretaceous Banhado alkaline complex in southeastern Brazil presents two potassic SiO2-undersaturated series. The high-Ca magmatic series consist of initially fractionated olivine (Fo(92-91)) + diopside (Wo(48-43)En(49-35)Ae(0-7)), as evidenced by the presence of xenocrysts and xenoliths. In that sequence, diopside (Wo(47-38)En(46-37)Ae(0-8)) + phlogopite + apatite + perovskite (Prv(> 92)) crystallized to form the phlogopite melteigite and led to the Ca enrichment of the magma. Diopside (Wo(47-41)En(32-24) Ae(3-14)) continued to crystallize as an early mafic mineral, followed by nepheline (Ne(74.8-70.1)Ks(26.3-21.2)Qz(7.6-0.9)) and leucite (Lc(65-56)) and subsequently by melanite and potassic feldspar (Or(85-99)Ab(1-7)) to form melanite ijolites, wollastonite-melanite urtites and melanite-nepheline syenites. Melanite-pseudoleucite-nepheline syenites are interpreted to be a leucite accumulation. Melanite nephelinite dykes are believed to represent some of the magmatic differentiation steps. The low-Ca magmatic series is representative of a typical fractionation of aegirine-augite (Wo(36-29)En(25-4)Ae(39-18)) + alkali feldspar (Or(57-96)Ab(3-43)) + nepheline (Ne(76.5-69.0)Ks(19.9-14.4)Qz(15.1-7.7)) + titanite from phonolite magma. The evolution of this series from potassic nepheline syenites to sodic sodalite syenites and sodalitolites is attributed to an extensive fractionation of potassic feldspar, which led to an increase of the NaCl activity in the melt during the final stages forming sodalite-rich rocks. Phonolite dykes followed a similar evolutionary process and also registered some crustal assimilation. The mesocratic nepheline syenites showed interactions with phlogopite melteigites, such as compatible trace element enrichments and the presence of diopside xenocrysts, which were interpreted to be due to a mixing/mingling process of phonolite and nephelinite magmas. The geochemical data show higher TiO2 and P2O5 contents and lower SiO2 contents for the high-Ca series and different LILE evolution trends and REE chondrite-normalized patterns as compared to the low-Ca series. The Sr-87/Sr-86, Nd-143/Nd-144, Pb-206/Pb-204 and Pb-208/Pb-204 initial ratios for the high-Ca series (0.70407-0.70526, 0.51242-0.51251, 17.782-19.266 and 38.051-39.521, respectively) were slightly different from those of the low-Ca series (0.70542-0.70583, 0.51232-0.51240, 17.758-17.772 and 38.021-38.061, respectively). For both series, a CO2-rich potassic metasomatized lithospheric mantle enriched the source with rutile-bearing phlogopite clinopyroxenite veins. Kamafugite-like parental magma is attributed to the high-Ca series with major contributions from the melting of the veins. Potassic nephelinite-like parental magma is assigned to the low-Ca series, where the metasomatized wall-rock played a more significant role in the melting process.

Influence of the network modifier on the characteristics of MSnO3 (M=Sr and Ca) thin films synthesized by chemical solution deposition

CaSnO3 and SrSnO3 alkaline earth stannate thin films were prepared by chemical solution deposition using the polymeric precursor method on various single crystal substrates (R- and C-sapphire and 100-SrTiO3) at different temperatures. The films were characterized by X-ray diffraction (θ-2θ, ω- and φ-scans), field emission scanning electron microscopy, atomic force microscopy, micro-Raman spectroscopy and photoluminescence. Epitaxial SrSnO3 and CaSnO3 thin films were obtained on SrTiO3 with a high crystalline quality. The long-range symmetry promoted a short-range disorder which led to photoluminescence in the epitaxial films. In contrast, the films deposited on sapphire exhibited a random polycrystalline growth with no meaningful emission regardless of the substrate orientation. The network modifier (Ca or Sr) and the substrate (sapphire or SrTiO3) influenced the crystallization process and/or the microstructure. Higher is the tilts of the SnO6 octahedra, as in CaSnO3, higher is the crystallization temperature, which changed also the nucleation/grain growth process.

Spatial and temporal variation in settlement, growth and condition of the rockfish species Sebastes caurinus and Sebastes carnatus in the Channel Islands region, Santa Barbara, CA

Survival during the early life stages of marine species, including nearshore temperate reef fishes, is typically very low, and small changes in mortality rates, due to physiological and environmental conditions, can have marked effects on survival of a cohort and, on a larger scale, on the success of a recruitment season. Moreover, trade offs between larval growth and accumulation of energetic resources prior to settlement are likely to influence growth and survival until this critical period and afterwards. Rockfish recruitment rates are notoriously variable between years and across geographic locations. Monitoring of rates of onshore delivery of pelagic juveniles (defined here as settlement) of two species of nearshore rockfishes, Sebastes caurinus and Sebastes carnatus, was done between 2003-2009 years using artificial collectors placed at San Miguel and Santa Cruz Island, off Southern California coast. I investigated spatiotemporal variation in settlement rate, lipid content, pelagic larval duration and larval growth of the newly settled fishes; I assessed relationships between birth date, larval growth, early life-history characteristics and lipid content at settlement, considering also interspecific differences; finally, I attempt to relate interannual patterns of settlement and of early life history traits to easily accessible, local and regional indices of ocean conditions including in situ ocean temperature and regional upwelling, sea surface temperature (SST) and Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration. Spatial variations appeared to be of low relevance, while significant interannual differences were detected in settlement rate, pelagic larval duration and larval growth. The amount of lipid content of the newly settled fishes was highly variable in space and time, but did not differ between the two species and did not show any relationships with early life history traits, indicating that no trade off involved these physiological processes or they were masked by high individual variability in different periods of larval life. Significant interspecific differences were found in the timing of parturition and settlement and in larval growth rates, with S. carnatus growing faster and breeding and settling later than S. caurinus. The two species exhibited also different patterns of correlations between larval growth rates and larval duration. S. carnatus larval duration was longer when the growth in the first two weeks post-hatch was faster, while S. caurinus had a shorter larval duration when grew fast in the middle and in the end of larval life, suggesting different larval strategies. Fishes with longer larval durations were longer in size at settlement and exhibited longer planktonic phase in periods of favourable environmental conditions. Ocean conditions had a low explanatory power for interannual variation in early life history traits, but a very high explanatory power for settlement fluctuations, with regional upwelling strength being the principal indicator. Nonetheless, interannual variability in larval duration and growth were related to great phenological changes in upwelling happened during the period of this study and that caused negative consequences at all trophic levels along the California coast. Despite the low explanatory power of the environmental variables used in this study on the variation of larval biological traits, environmental processes were differently related with early life history characteristics analyzed to species, indicating possible species-specific susceptibility to ocean conditions and local environmental adaptation, which should be further investigated. These results have implications for understanding the processes influencing larval and juvenile survival, and consequently recruitment variability, which may be dependent on biological characteristics and environmental conditions.

Geochronological and structural evolution of the western and central Kaoko Belt in NW Namibia

This thesis focusses on the tectonic evolution and geochronology of part of the Kaoko orogen, which is part of a network of Pan-African orogenic belts in NW Namibia. By combining geochemical, isotopic and structural analysis, the aim was to gain more information about how and when the Kaoko Belt formed. The first chapter gives a general overview of the studied area and the second one describes the basis of the Electron Probe Microanalysis dating method. The reworking of Palaeo- to Mesoproterozoic basement during the Pan-African orogeny as part of the assembly of West Gondwana is discussed in Chapter 3. In the study area, high-grade rocks occupy a large area, and the belt is marked by several large-scale structural discontinuities. The two major discontinuities, the Sesfontein Thrust (ST) and the Puros Shear Zone (PSZ), subdivide the orogen into three tectonic units: the Eastern Kaoko Zone (EKZ), the Central Kaoko Zone (CKZ) and the Western Kaoko Zone (WKZ). An important lineament, the Village Mylonite Zone (VMZ), has been identified in the WKZ. Since plutonic rocks play an important role in understanding the evolution of a mountain belt, zircons from granitoid gneisses were dated by conventional U-Pb, SHRIMP and Pb-Pb techniques to identify different age provinces. Four different age provinces were recognized within the Central and Western part of the belt, which occur in different structural positions. The VMZ seems to mark the limit between Pan-African granitic rocks east of the lineament and Palaeo- to Mesoproterozoic basement to the west. In Chapter 4 the tectonic processes are discussed that led to the Neoproterozoic architecture of the orogen. The data suggest that the Kaoko Belt experienced three main phases of deformation, D1-D3, during the Pan-African orogeny. Early structures in the central part of the study area indicate that the initial stage of collision was governed by underthrusting of the medium-grade Central Kaoko zone below the high-grade Western Kaoko zone, resulting in the development of an inverted metamorphic gradient. The early structures were overprinted by a second phase D2, which was associated with the development of the PSZ and extensive partial melting and intrusion of ~550 Ma granitic bodies in the high-grade WKZ. Transcurrent deformation continued during cooling of the entire belt, giving rise to the localized low-temperature VMZ that separates a segment of elevated Mesoproterozoic basement from the rest of the Western zone in which only Pan-African ages have so far been observed. The data suggest that the boundary between the Western and Central Kaoko zones represents a modified thrust zone, controlling the tectonic evolution of the Kaoko belt. The geodynamic evolution and the processes that generated this belt system are discussed in Chapter 5. Nd mean crustal residence ages of granitoid rocks permit subdivision of the belt into four provinces. Province I is characterised by mean crustal residence ages <1.7 Ga and is restricted to the Neoproterozoic granitoids. A wide range of initial Sr isotopic values (87Sr/86Sri = 0.7075 to 0.7225) suggests heterogeneous sources for these granitoids. The second province consists of Mesoproterozoic (1516-1448 Ma) and late Palaeo-proterozoic (1776-1701 Ma) rocks and is probably related to the Eburnian cycle with Nd model ages of 1.8-2.2 Ga. The eNd i values of these granitoids are around zero and suggest a predominantly juvenile source. Late Archaean and middle Palaeoproterozoic rocks with model ages of 2.5 to 2.8 Ga make up Province III in the central part of the belt and are distinct from two early Proterozoic samples taken near the PSZ which show even older TDM ages of ~3.3 Ga (Province IV). There is no clear geological evidence for the involvement of oceanic lithosphere in the formation of the Kaoko-Dom Feliciano orogen. Chapter 6 presents the results of isotopic analyses of garnet porphyroblasts from high-grade meta-igneous and metasedimentary rocks of the sillimanite-K-feldspar zone. Minimum P-T conditions for peak metamorphism were calculated at 731±10 °C at 6.7±1.2 kbar, substantially lower than those previously reported. A Sm-Nd garnet-whole rock errorchron obtained on a single meta-igneous rock yielded an unexpectedly old age of 692±13 Ma, which is interpreted as an inherited metamorphic age reflecting an early Pan-African granulite-facies event. The dated garnets survived a younger high-grade metamorphism that occurred between ca. 570 and 520 Ma and apparently maintained their old Sm-Nd isotopic systematics, implying that the closure temperature for garnet in this sample was higher than 730 °C. The metamorphic peak of the younger event was dated by electronmicroprobe on monazite at 567±5 Ma. From a regional viewpoint, it is possible that these granulites of igneous origin may be unrelated to the early Pan-African metamorphic evolution of the Kaoko Belt and may represent a previously unrecognised exotic terrane.