Earthquakes of the Nepal Himalaya : towards a physical model of the seismic cycle

Home to hundreds of millions of souls and land of excessiveness, the Himalaya is also the locus of a unique seismicity whose scope and peculiarities still remain to this day somewhat mysterious. Having claimed the lives of kings, or turned ancient timeworn cities into heaps of rubbles and ruins, earthquakes eerily inhabit Nepalese folk tales with the fatalistic message that nothing lasts forever. From a scientific point of view as much as from a human perspective, solving the mysteries of Himalayan seismicity thus represents a challenge of prime importance. Documenting geodetic strain across the Nepal Himalaya with various GPS and leveling data, we show that unlike other subduction zones that exhibit a heterogeneous and patchy coupling pattern along strike, the last hundred kilometers of the Main Himalayan Thrust fault, or MHT, appear to be uniformly locked, devoid of any of the “creeping barriers” that traditionally ward off the propagation of large events. The approximately 20 mm/yr of reckoned convergence across the Himalaya matching previously established estimates of the secular deformation at the front of the arc, the slip accumulated at depth has to somehow elastically propagate all the way to the surface at some point. And yet, neither large events from the past nor currently recorded microseismicity nearly compensate for the massive moment deficit that quietly builds up under the giant mountains. Along with this large unbalanced moment deficit, the uncommonly homogeneous coupling pattern on the MHT raises the question of whether or not the locked portion of the MHT can rupture all at once in a giant earthquake. Univocally answering this question appears contingent on the still elusive estimate of the magnitude of the largest possible earthquake in the Himalaya, and requires tight constraints on local fault properties. What makes the Himalaya enigmatic also makes it the potential source of an incredible wealth of information, and we exploit some of the oddities of Himalayan seismicity in an effort to improve the understanding of earthquake physics and cipher out the properties of the MHT. Thanks to the Himalaya, the Indo-Gangetic plain is deluged each year under a tremendous amount of water during the annual summer monsoon that collects and bears down on the Indian plate enough to pull it away from the Eurasian plate slightly, temporarily relieving a small portion of the stress mounting on the MHT. As the rainwater evaporates in the dry winter season, the plate rebounds and tension is increased back on the fault. Interestingly, the mild waggle of stress induced by the monsoon rains is about the same size as that from solid-Earth tides which gently tug at the planets solid layers, but whereas changes in earthquake frequency correspond with the annually occurring monsoon, there is no such correlation with Earth tides, which oscillate back-and-forth twice a day. We therefore investigate the general response of the creeping and seismogenic parts of MHT to periodic stresses in order to link these observations to physical parameters. First, the response of the creeping part of the MHT is analyzed with a simple spring-and-slider system bearing rate-strengthening rheology, and we show that at the transition with the locked zone, where the friction becomes near velocity neutral, the response of the slip rate may be amplified at some periods, which values are analytically related to the physical parameters of the problem. Such predictions therefore hold the potential of constraining fault properties on the MHT, but still await observational counterparts to be applied, as nothing indicates that the variations of seismicity rate on the locked part of the MHT are the direct expressions of variations of the slip rate on its creeping part, and no variations of the slip rate have been singled out from the GPS measurements to this day. When shifting to the locked seismogenic part of the MHT, spring-and-slider models with rate-weakening rheology are insufficient to explain the contrasted responses of the seismicity to the periodic loads that tides and monsoon both place on the MHT. Instead, we resort to numerical simulations using the Boundary Integral CYCLes of Earthquakes algorithm and examine the response of a 2D finite fault embedded with a rate-weakening patch to harmonic stress perturbations of various periods. We show that such simulations are able to reproduce results consistent with a gradual amplification of sensitivity as the perturbing period get larger, up to a critical period corresponding to the characteristic time of evolution of the seismicity in response to a step-like perturbation of stress. This increase of sensitivity was not reproduced by simple 1D-spring-slider systems, probably because of the complexity of the nucleation process, reproduced only by 2D-fault models. When the nucleation zone is close to its critical unstable size, its growth becomes highly sensitive to any external perturbations and the timings of produced events may therefore find themselves highly affected. A fully analytical framework has yet to be developed and further work is needed to fully describe the behavior of the fault in terms of physical parameters, which will likely provide the keys to deduce constitutive properties of the MHT from seismological observations.

Measurement of the galactic cosmic ray antiproton flux from 0.25 gev to 3.11 gev with the isotope matter antimatter experiment (imax)

The intensities and relative abundances of galactic cosmic ray protons and antiprotons have been measured with the Isotope Matter Antimatter Experiment (IMAX), a balloon-borne magnet spectrometer. The IMAX payload had a successful flight from Lynn Lake, Manitoba, Canada on July 16, 1992. Particles detected by IMAX were identified by mass and charge via the Cherenkov-Rigidity and TOP-Rigidity techniques, with measured rms mass resolution ≤0.2 amu for Z=1 particles.

Cosmic ray antiprotons are of interest because they can be produced by the interactions of high energy protons and heavier nuclei with the interstellar medium as well as by more exotic sources. Previous cosmic ray antiproton experiments have reported an excess of antiprotons over that expected solely from cosmic ray interactions.

Analysis of the flight data has yielded 124405 protons and 3 antiprotons in the energy range 0.19-0.97 GeV at the instrument, 140617 protons and 8 antiprotons in the energy range 0.97-2.58 GeV, and 22524 protons and 5 antiprotons in the energy range 2.58-3.08 GeV. These measurements are a statistical improvement over previous antiproton measurements, and they demonstrate improved separation of antiprotons from the more abundant fluxes of protons, electrons, and other cosmic ray species.

When these results are corrected for instrumental and atmospheric background and losses, the ratios at the top of the atmosphere are p/p=3.21(+3.49, -1.97)x10^(-5) in the energy range 0.25-1.00 GeV, p/p=5.38(+3.48, -2.45) x10^(-5) in the energy range 1.00-2.61 GeV, and p/p=2.05(+1.79, -1.15) x10^(-4) in the energy range 2.61-3.11 GeV. The corresponding antiproton intensities, also corrected to the top of the atmosphere, are 2.3(+2.5, -1.4) x10^(-2) (m^2 s sr GeV)^(-1), 2.1(+1.4, -1.0) x10^(-2) (m^2 s sr GeV)^(-1), and 4.3(+3.7, -2.4) x10^(-2) (m^2 s sr GeV)^(-1) for the same energy ranges.

The IMAX antiproton fluxes and antiproton/proton ratios are compared with recent Standard Leaky Box Model (SLBM) calculations of the cosmic ray antiproton abundance. According to this model, cosmic ray antiprotons are secondary cosmic rays arising solely from the interaction of high energy cosmic rays with the interstellar medium. The effects of solar modulation of protons and antiprotons are also calculated, showing that the antiproton/proton ratio can vary by as much as an order of magnitude over the solar cycle. When solar modulation is taken into account, the IMAX antiproton measurements are found to be consistent with the most recent calculations of the SLBM. No evidence is found in the IMAX data for excess antiprotons arising from the decay of galactic dark matter, which had been suggested as an interpretation of earlier measurements. Furthermore, the consistency of the current results with the SLBM calculations suggests that the mean antiproton lifetime is at least as large as the cosmic ray storage time in the galaxy (~10^7 yr, based on measurements of cosmic ray ^(10)Be). Recent measurements by two other experiments are consistent with this interpretation of the IMAX antiproton results.

Effects of self energy of the ions on the double layer structure and properties at the dielectric interface

Although numerous theoretical efforts have been put forth, a systematic, unified and predictive theoretical framework that is able to capture all the essential physics of the interfacial behaviors of ions, such as the Hofmeister series effect, Jones-Ray effect and the salt effect on the bubble coalescence remain an outstanding challenge. The most common approach to treating electrostatic interactions in the presence of salt ions is the Poisson-Boltzmann (PB) theory. However, there are many systems for which the PB theory fails to offer even a qualitative explanation of the behavior, especially for ions distributed in the vicinity of an interface with dielectric contrast between the two media (like the water-vapor/oil interface). A key factor missing in the PB theory is the self energy of the ion.

In this thesis, we develop a self-consistent theory that treats the electrostatic self energy (including both the short-range Born solvation energy and the long-range image charge interactions), the nonelectrostatic contribution of the self energy, the ion-ion correlation and the screening effect systematically in a single framework. By assuming a finite charge spread of the ion instead of using the point-charge model, the self energy obtained by our theory is free of the divergence problems and gives a continuous self energy across the interface. This continuous feature allows ions on the water side and the vapor/oil side of the interface to be treated in a unified framework. The theory involves a minimum set of parameters of the ion, such as the valency, radius, polarizability of the ions, and the dielectric constants of the medium, that are both intrinsic and readily available. The general theory is first applied to study the thermodynamic property of the bulk electrolyte solution, which shows good agreement with the experiment result for predicting the activity coefficient and osmotic coefficient.

Next, we address the effect of local Born solvation energy on the bulk thermodynamics and interfacial properties of electrolyte solution mixtures. We show that difference in the solvation energy between the cations and anions naturally gives rise to local charge separation near the interface, and a finite Galvani potential between two coexisting solutions. The miscibility of the mixture can either increases or decreases depending on the competition between the solvation energy and translation entropy of the ions. The interfacial tension shows a non-monotonic dependence on the salt concentration: it increases linearly with the salt concentration at higher concentrations, and decreases approximately as the square root of the salt concentration for dilute solutions, which is in agreement with the Jones-Ray effect observed in experiment.

Next, we investigate the image effects on the double layer structure and interfacial properties near a single charged plate. We show that the image charge repulsion creates a depletion boundary layer that cannot be captured by a regular perturbation approach. The correct weak-coupling theory must include the self-energy of the ion due to the image charge interaction. The image force qualitatively alters the double layer structure and properties, and gives rise to many non-PB effects, such as nonmonotonic dependence of the surface energy on concentration and charge inversion. The image charge effect is then studied for electrolyte solutions between two plates. For two neutral plates, we show that depletion of the salt ions by the image charge repulsion results in short-range attractive and long-range repulsive forces. If cations and anions are of different valency, the asymmetric depletion leads to the formation of an induced electrical double layer. For two charged plates, the competition between the surface charge and the image charge effect can give rise to like- charge attraction.

Then, we study the inhomogeneous screening effect near the dielectric interface due to the anisotropic and nonuniform ion distribution. We show that the double layer structure and interfacial properties is drastically affected by the inhomogeneous screening if the bulk Debye screening length is comparable or smaller than the Bjerrum length. The width of the depletion layer is characterized by the Bjerrum length, independent of the salt concentration. We predict that the negative adsorption of ions at the interface increases linearly with the salt concentration, which cannot be captured by either the bulk screening approximation or the WKB approximation. For asymmetric salt, the inhomogeneous screening enhances the charge separation in the induced double layer and significantly increases the value of the surface potential.

Finally, to account for the ion specificity, we study the self energy of a single ion across the dielectric interface. The ion is considered to be polarizable: its charge distribution can be self-adjusted to the local dielectric environment to minimize the self energy. Using intrinsic parameters of the ions, such as the valency, radius, and polarizability, we predict the specific ion effect on the interfacial affinity of halogen anions at the water/air interface, and the strong adsorption of hydrophobic ions at the water/oil interface, in agreement with experiments and atomistic simulations.

The theory developed in this work represents the most systematic theoretical technique for weak-coupling electrolytes. We expect the theory to be more useful for studying a wide range of structural and dynamic properties in physicochemical, colloidal, soft-matter and biophysical systems.

Nature of the radical intermediates in a substituted cyclopropylcarbiny-allylcarbinyl system

We have sought to determine the nature of the free-radical precursors to ring-opened hydrocarbon 5</u> and ring-closed hydrocarbon 6. Reasonable alternative formulations involve the postulation of hydrogen abstraction (a) by a pair of rapidly equilibrating classical radicals (the ring-opened allylcarbinyl-type radical 3 and the ring-closed cyclopropylcarbinyl-type 4), or (b) by a nonclassical radical such as homoallylic radical 7.